经理人心理偏差导致企业非理性投资行为研究
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摘要
企业投资是实现经济增长和人们生活质量提高的本源,同时也为股东创造了价值,但是在现实生活中,却存在大量无效率投资行为,形成了对社会资源的浪费。基于“经济人”和“理性人”假设下,学者们对这一现象进行了大量的研究,然而只能对此进行部分的解释,从经理人心理偏差的角度,对企业非理性投资行为进行研究,具有重要意义。
文章阐述了高层经理人在企业投资决策中的影响力,并分析了其心理过程对企业投资的影响,在此基础上,剖析了经理人心理偏差对企业非理性投资影响的机理：经理人对自身能力的过度自信和基于薪酬比较产生的嫉妒心理,引致了企业的过度投资行为；基于有限注意力经理人产生的短视偏差,节约信息收集成本和推卸责任需要而产生的从众心理,导致了企业的无序多元化投资；经理人的证实偏差、损失厌恶和后悔厌恶等心理特征,导致企业对亏损项目的恶性增资。这样的投资最终可能使企业丧失核心竞争力,陷入财务危机和管理混乱,企业非理性投资对企业价值的损害称之为行为成本。
对已有研究成果中关于经理人心理偏差和非理性投资的度量方法进行分析和评价,并指出其不足。而新闻分析法则从经理人心理偏差产生的过程来进行度量,在方法上具有一定的优势。采用新闻分析方法,对经理人的过度自信进行度量,采用对热点新闻注意力提升的分析方法,度量经理人的短视行为,采用某群体对于新闻注意力变化的一致性,度量经理人的从众行为。同时,针对经理人心理偏差引致的企业非理性投资行为,采用相应的方法进行度量与判定。并采用上市公司新希望及其经理人团队代表刘永好为案例,对这些方法进行了分析与验证。
运用猴王心理和公平理论,来界定外部薪酬比较所形成的经理人嫉妒心理,并采用我国中小企业板上市公司相关数据,实证研究发现,由于经理人薪酬差距所产生的嫉妒心理对企业投资产生显著的正向影响,并且这些投资是在没有企业有效的财务支持下产生的非理性投资。从而解释了经理人薪酬竞赛和企业投资竞争之间的关系。
针对我国资本市场非理性繁荣下的企业股票投资热潮,采用相关研究方法,分析发现基于有限注意力和投资者的短视都会引致的经理人短视,而经理人越短视,引致制造类制造类上市公司更多的股票投资。从而对我国企业追逐市场热点所形成的无序多元化投资进行了相应解释。
为了减少经理人心理偏差对企业投资的影响,我们应该从提升经理人素质、合理的外部制度设计以及金融市场的完善等角度,来抑制经理人非理性行为对企业投资决策的影响。
The corporate investment is not only the stanchion of the economic growth but also improve the people's life quality, It create value for stockholders too. However, there is existed inefficient-investment which makes waste of the social resources. Based on the hypothesis of Economic Man and Rational Man, there are many researches on this phenomenon conducted by scholars, but they could not just give all the explanation. So it is sense to study corporates'inefficient-investment by manager psychological and behavioral bias.
High-level managers play a important roal in corporate investment. And their psychological processes have been impact on investment. We analysis the mechanism of Manager psychology bias on corporation inefficient-investment. The managers'overconfidence and envy based on the comparison of compensation cause the corporate over-investment. Managers'myopia which caused by limited attention, Managers' herd behavior which arouse from the economizing cost of information collecting and the shirking of responsibility,that will lead to the corporate disorder diversification investment. Because of the manager's confirmatory bias, loss aversion and regret aversion, it lead to corporate escalation of commitment. These investments will ultimately make a corporate loss its core competition and fall into financial collapse and manage chaos. These losses of the corporation value caused by inefficient investment are named as behavioral cost.
We analysis the methods to measure managers' psychology and irrational corporate investment by other researchers. The news analysis is the better methods to measure managers' psychological bias. We use the news analysis method to measure the overconfidence of manager,We also use the increase of attation to hot news to measure manager myopia, We use colony's the same change attention to hot news to measure manager's herd behaviour. And also we take NEW HOPE and Liu Yonghao as the representative of the team managers to test these methods. Meanwhile, we analyse and appraise the irrational of corporate investment which is caused by manager's psychology and behaviour bias.
By the monkey psychology and equity theory. We use compensation gap as manager envy. We find the manager envy which is caused by manager's compensation gap play a important role in corporate investment. Which explains the relationship between the contest of manager salary and the competition of corporate investment.
In view of the irrational stock market, we introduce some related methods to analyse the manager myopia. We analyse the influence which manager myopia caused by Limited attention and investors myopia lead to the more irrational stock investment of manufacturing companies. Accordingly, it gives a explanation on the disorder investment of our campany.
In order to lessen the cost of manager's psychological bias, we should enhance the managers' quality, design a rational system and perfect the financial market,etc. Thus, we can control the influence of managers'irrational behaviour in the corporate investment decision-making.
文章阐述了高层经理人在企业投资决策中的影响力,并分析了其心理过程对企业投资的影响,在此基础上,剖析了经理人心理偏差对企业非理性投资影响的机理：经理人对自身能力的过度自信和基于薪酬比较产生的嫉妒心理,引致了企业的过度投资行为；基于有限注意力经理人产生的短视偏差,节约信息收集成本和推卸责任需要而产生的从众心理,导致了企业的无序多元化投资；经理人的证实偏差、损失厌恶和后悔厌恶等心理特征,导致企业对亏损项目的恶性增资。这样的投资最终可能使企业丧失核心竞争力,陷入财务危机和管理混乱,企业非理性投资对企业价值的损害称之为行为成本。
对已有研究成果中关于经理人心理偏差和非理性投资的度量方法进行分析和评价,并指出其不足。而新闻分析法则从经理人心理偏差产生的过程来进行度量,在方法上具有一定的优势。采用新闻分析方法,对经理人的过度自信进行度量,采用对热点新闻注意力提升的分析方法,度量经理人的短视行为,采用某群体对于新闻注意力变化的一致性,度量经理人的从众行为。同时,针对经理人心理偏差引致的企业非理性投资行为,采用相应的方法进行度量与判定。并采用上市公司新希望及其经理人团队代表刘永好为案例,对这些方法进行了分析与验证。
运用猴王心理和公平理论,来界定外部薪酬比较所形成的经理人嫉妒心理,并采用我国中小企业板上市公司相关数据,实证研究发现,由于经理人薪酬差距所产生的嫉妒心理对企业投资产生显著的正向影响,并且这些投资是在没有企业有效的财务支持下产生的非理性投资。从而解释了经理人薪酬竞赛和企业投资竞争之间的关系。
针对我国资本市场非理性繁荣下的企业股票投资热潮,采用相关研究方法,分析发现基于有限注意力和投资者的短视都会引致的经理人短视,而经理人越短视,引致制造类制造类上市公司更多的股票投资。从而对我国企业追逐市场热点所形成的无序多元化投资进行了相应解释。
为了减少经理人心理偏差对企业投资的影响,我们应该从提升经理人素质、合理的外部制度设计以及金融市场的完善等角度,来抑制经理人非理性行为对企业投资决策的影响。
The corporate investment is not only the stanchion of the economic growth but also improve the people's life quality, It create value for stockholders too. However, there is existed inefficient-investment which makes waste of the social resources. Based on the hypothesis of Economic Man and Rational Man, there are many researches on this phenomenon conducted by scholars, but they could not just give all the explanation. So it is sense to study corporates'inefficient-investment by manager psychological and behavioral bias.
High-level managers play a important roal in corporate investment. And their psychological processes have been impact on investment. We analysis the mechanism of Manager psychology bias on corporation inefficient-investment. The managers'overconfidence and envy based on the comparison of compensation cause the corporate over-investment. Managers'myopia which caused by limited attention, Managers' herd behavior which arouse from the economizing cost of information collecting and the shirking of responsibility,that will lead to the corporate disorder diversification investment. Because of the manager's confirmatory bias, loss aversion and regret aversion, it lead to corporate escalation of commitment. These investments will ultimately make a corporate loss its core competition and fall into financial collapse and manage chaos. These losses of the corporation value caused by inefficient investment are named as behavioral cost.
We analysis the methods to measure managers' psychology and irrational corporate investment by other researchers. The news analysis is the better methods to measure managers' psychological bias. We use the news analysis method to measure the overconfidence of manager,We also use the increase of attation to hot news to measure manager myopia, We use colony's the same change attention to hot news to measure manager's herd behaviour. And also we take NEW HOPE and Liu Yonghao as the representative of the team managers to test these methods. Meanwhile, we analyse and appraise the irrational of corporate investment which is caused by manager's psychology and behaviour bias.
By the monkey psychology and equity theory. We use compensation gap as manager envy. We find the manager envy which is caused by manager's compensation gap play a important role in corporate investment. Which explains the relationship between the contest of manager salary and the competition of corporate investment.
In view of the irrational stock market, we introduce some related methods to analyse the manager myopia. We analyse the influence which manager myopia caused by Limited attention and investors myopia lead to the more irrational stock investment of manufacturing companies. Accordingly, it gives a explanation on the disorder investment of our campany.
In order to lessen the cost of manager's psychological bias, we should enhance the managers' quality, design a rational system and perfect the financial market,etc. Thus, we can control the influence of managers'irrational behaviour in the corporate investment decision-making.
引文
①数据来源于Protecting Value Study:Has the World of Risk Really Changed?.Factory Mutual Insurance Company and Executives Research Foundation,2003
①数据转引自：赫什.舍夫林.行为公司金融[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社,2007,P76
①Tom Rustici的《公司心理学》
①即Chief Naysay Officer,参见:Morck, Randall, Behavioral finance in corporate governance:economics and ethics of the devil's advocate, Journal of Management and Governance, Volume 12, Number 2,2008,179-200.,
①引自：格鲁夫解雇了自己,创造历史的20个商业决策,《世界商业评论》ICXO.COM
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①Tom Rustici的《公司心理学》
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①引自：格鲁夫解雇了自己,创造历史的20个商业决策,《世界商业评论》ICXO.COM
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