洪涝灾害下电力损失及停电经济影响的综合评估研究
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摘要
随着全球气候变化和城市化进程的加速发展,洪涝灾害呈频次增多、强度增大、损失加重的趋势。洪涝灾害的频繁发生已成为制约我国社会经济持续发展的重要因素之一。随着社会经济的快速发展,行业之间的关联性增加,经济系统的脆弱程度也随之加剧。电力作为国家重要的基础产业部门,遭受洪涝灾害袭击时,将造成大量工业、商业、居民用户停电,并将波及至经济系统的各个行业,甚至影响到整个社会经济系统的稳定运行。因此,准确合理地对洪涝灾害造成的电力损失及其相关经济损失进行综合评估显得尤为重要,它是政府部门灾后合理安排人力、物力和财力的重要依据,为救灾决策和应急抗灾措施的制定提供科学保障。为此,研究洪涝灾害下电力损失和停电经济影响的综合评估具有重要的理论意义和实用价值。
1.通过洪涝灾害对电力系统的影响分析,建立洪涝灾害对电力系统的影响模型,并采用最小二乘法估计了模型参数。针对模型在准确性方面的不足,分别采用假设检验法、逐步回归法、Lasso法从多种导致电力设备故障的因素中提取特征量,构建更加准确的电力设备影响模型,并采用Akaike信息标准检验模型的拟合程度。
2.分析降雨强度的随机特性,建立降雨强度广义帕累托分布(Generalized Pareto Distribution, GPD)模型。基于降雨强度的概率分布,预测绝缘子的闪络概率和变压器故障概率,进而获取输变电线路停运的故障概率。
3.基于电力系统固有的物理特性,提出线路停运故障下电力系统切负荷评估模型,评估在线路停运故障下的系统切负荷损失。进一步考虑洪涝灾害所造成的输变电线路停运故障的不确定性,提出基于机会约束的电力系统切负荷评估模型,并研究该模型的求解方法。
4.分析洪水对水力发电的影响,提出考虑水库安全的电力系统切负荷评估模型,评估洪水发电时电力系统的切负荷损失。分析洪水流量的随机特性,并考虑多个水库入库洪水流量的相关性,计算出多个水库入库洪水流量的联合概率分布。进一步考虑洪涝灾害下洪水流量的不确定性,提出基于机会约束的电力系统切负荷评估模型,并研究该模型的求解方法。
5.基于洪涝灾害下的电力系统切负荷决策,提出电力行业的停电经济损失评估模型,并根据不同用户的用电特性,构建工业、商业和居民用户的停电直接经济损失评估模型。将电力行业损失和用户停电的直接经济损失作为外生冲击,运用可计算一般均衡(Computable General Equilibrium, CGE)理论对洪涝灾害停电的间接经济损失进行估算。以湖南省洪涝灾害造成的停电事故为例进行分析计算,验证基于CGE的综合经济损失评估模型是可行的。
综上所述,本文将洪涝灾害下电力系统故障概率预测、切负荷损失评估以及停电经济损失评估有机结合,对洪涝灾害下电力损失及其停电经济影响的综合评估进行了深入的研究,形成了一套完整的洪涝灾害下电力经济损失评估体系,有效地评估洪涝灾害造成的电力损失及其相关经济损失,为救灾决策和应急抗灾措施的制定提供科学保障。
With the change of the global climate and the accelerated development of urbanization, the frequency, strength and loss of the flooding exhibit a trend of increasing. Frequent floods have become an important factor which restricts the sustainable development of China's society and economics, due to the complicated natural conditions in China. With the rapid incensement of the correlation between various industries, the vulnerability of the economic system becomes more intensive. The electric supply for industrial, commercial, residential and other users will be cut off when the electricity sector, an important basic industry, subjects to flooding attacks. As a result, the effects of blackouts will spread to all industrial sectors, and even influence the stable operation of the entire social and economic system. Therefore, it is important to accurately reasonably, and comprehensively evaluate the power losses and the associated economic losses which caused by floods, providing an important basis for government regulators to reasonably arrange the human, material and financial resources in the post-disaster, and scientific decision-making and security relief measures in the emergency disaster. Therefore, the comprehensive assessment of the power loss and the economic impact of the power outages under the flooding have an important theoretical significance and practical value.
The integrated assessment model of the power loss and the economic impact of the power outages which caused by flooding are described in this paper. First, the outage failure probability model of the transmission line caused by flooding is proposed to predict the probability of the failure transmission line outage, based on the amount of impact analysis of the power system and its'statistical feature selection method. Then, based on the uncertainty of the outage failure probability of the transmission line and the flow of the reservoir floods, the assessment model of the load shedding loss of the power system is proposed, which can assess the load cut and load-shedding losses accurately. Finally, according to the characteristics of different types of the electricity users, the direct economic losses of the outage for various industries users caused by load shedding are estimated. The indirect economic loss assessment model is put forward based on the computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The majority of work and the innovations are as follows:
1. The model of the floods that affect the power system is proposed by analysis of the impact of floods on the power system. The model parameters are estimated by using the least squares method. Aiming at the shortage of the least square method, the characteristic quantity from the weather, geography, power and other factors that lead to the failure of electrical equipment is selected to establish the model of the floods that effect the power equipment by using hypothesis testing, stepwise regression, Lasso. The fit of the model is tested by using Akaike's information criteria.
2. The generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) model of the rainfall intensity is established by analysis of the random nature of rainfall intensity. The probability of transmission line outages failure and transformer failure are obtained to predict insulator flashover probability, according to the probability of rainfall intensity.
3. Based on the inherent physical properties of the power system, the model of the line outage failure load shedding of the power system evaluation is proposed, which can assess the loss of load shedding under the system fault line outage. By further consideration of the uncertainty of the transmission line outage failure caused by the floods, the load shedding assessment model of the power system based on chance constrained is proposed, and the solution method of the model is researched.
4. On the basic of analyzing the impact of floods on the hydroelectric power, the load shedding assessment model of the power system by considering the safety of the reservoirs of the power system is proposed, and the losses of load shedding is evaluated. By analysis of the random nature of the flood flow and by considering the multiple correlation of the flood flow storage reservoir, the joint probability of the numbers of distribution storage reservoirs of flood flow is calculated. By further consideration of the uncertainty of the flood flows caused by the floods, the load shedding assessment model of the power system based on chance constrained is proposed, and the solution method of the model is researched.
5. For the problem that the faults of load shedding in power system caused by floods, the economic loss assessment model of the power outages is proposed. Based on the user's electrical characteristics, the direct economic loss assessment models of the power outages for the construct industrial, commercial and residential customers are proposed. The indirect economic losses of the power outages which caused by the floods is estimated by using CGE, and the direct economic losses from the power industry and the power users use as an exogenous shock value.
In conclusion, a complete set of the economic losses of the power outages assessment system is proposed in this paper, with the combination of predicting the probability of power system fault caused by the floods, the load shedding assessment model of the power system and the economic loss assessment model of the power outages, and by further study the formation of the economic losses of the power system and the comprehensive impact of the power outages. It can evaluate the power losses and the related economic losses caused by the floods effectively, and it also can provide relief measures for decision-making and the scientific development of protection for the emergency disaster.
1.通过洪涝灾害对电力系统的影响分析,建立洪涝灾害对电力系统的影响模型,并采用最小二乘法估计了模型参数。针对模型在准确性方面的不足,分别采用假设检验法、逐步回归法、Lasso法从多种导致电力设备故障的因素中提取特征量,构建更加准确的电力设备影响模型,并采用Akaike信息标准检验模型的拟合程度。
2.分析降雨强度的随机特性,建立降雨强度广义帕累托分布(Generalized Pareto Distribution, GPD)模型。基于降雨强度的概率分布,预测绝缘子的闪络概率和变压器故障概率,进而获取输变电线路停运的故障概率。
3.基于电力系统固有的物理特性,提出线路停运故障下电力系统切负荷评估模型,评估在线路停运故障下的系统切负荷损失。进一步考虑洪涝灾害所造成的输变电线路停运故障的不确定性,提出基于机会约束的电力系统切负荷评估模型,并研究该模型的求解方法。
4.分析洪水对水力发电的影响,提出考虑水库安全的电力系统切负荷评估模型,评估洪水发电时电力系统的切负荷损失。分析洪水流量的随机特性,并考虑多个水库入库洪水流量的相关性,计算出多个水库入库洪水流量的联合概率分布。进一步考虑洪涝灾害下洪水流量的不确定性,提出基于机会约束的电力系统切负荷评估模型,并研究该模型的求解方法。
5.基于洪涝灾害下的电力系统切负荷决策,提出电力行业的停电经济损失评估模型,并根据不同用户的用电特性,构建工业、商业和居民用户的停电直接经济损失评估模型。将电力行业损失和用户停电的直接经济损失作为外生冲击,运用可计算一般均衡(Computable General Equilibrium, CGE)理论对洪涝灾害停电的间接经济损失进行估算。以湖南省洪涝灾害造成的停电事故为例进行分析计算,验证基于CGE的综合经济损失评估模型是可行的。
综上所述,本文将洪涝灾害下电力系统故障概率预测、切负荷损失评估以及停电经济损失评估有机结合,对洪涝灾害下电力损失及其停电经济影响的综合评估进行了深入的研究,形成了一套完整的洪涝灾害下电力经济损失评估体系,有效地评估洪涝灾害造成的电力损失及其相关经济损失,为救灾决策和应急抗灾措施的制定提供科学保障。
With the change of the global climate and the accelerated development of urbanization, the frequency, strength and loss of the flooding exhibit a trend of increasing. Frequent floods have become an important factor which restricts the sustainable development of China's society and economics, due to the complicated natural conditions in China. With the rapid incensement of the correlation between various industries, the vulnerability of the economic system becomes more intensive. The electric supply for industrial, commercial, residential and other users will be cut off when the electricity sector, an important basic industry, subjects to flooding attacks. As a result, the effects of blackouts will spread to all industrial sectors, and even influence the stable operation of the entire social and economic system. Therefore, it is important to accurately reasonably, and comprehensively evaluate the power losses and the associated economic losses which caused by floods, providing an important basis for government regulators to reasonably arrange the human, material and financial resources in the post-disaster, and scientific decision-making and security relief measures in the emergency disaster. Therefore, the comprehensive assessment of the power loss and the economic impact of the power outages under the flooding have an important theoretical significance and practical value.
The integrated assessment model of the power loss and the economic impact of the power outages which caused by flooding are described in this paper. First, the outage failure probability model of the transmission line caused by flooding is proposed to predict the probability of the failure transmission line outage, based on the amount of impact analysis of the power system and its'statistical feature selection method. Then, based on the uncertainty of the outage failure probability of the transmission line and the flow of the reservoir floods, the assessment model of the load shedding loss of the power system is proposed, which can assess the load cut and load-shedding losses accurately. Finally, according to the characteristics of different types of the electricity users, the direct economic losses of the outage for various industries users caused by load shedding are estimated. The indirect economic loss assessment model is put forward based on the computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The majority of work and the innovations are as follows:
1. The model of the floods that affect the power system is proposed by analysis of the impact of floods on the power system. The model parameters are estimated by using the least squares method. Aiming at the shortage of the least square method, the characteristic quantity from the weather, geography, power and other factors that lead to the failure of electrical equipment is selected to establish the model of the floods that effect the power equipment by using hypothesis testing, stepwise regression, Lasso. The fit of the model is tested by using Akaike's information criteria.
2. The generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) model of the rainfall intensity is established by analysis of the random nature of rainfall intensity. The probability of transmission line outages failure and transformer failure are obtained to predict insulator flashover probability, according to the probability of rainfall intensity.
3. Based on the inherent physical properties of the power system, the model of the line outage failure load shedding of the power system evaluation is proposed, which can assess the loss of load shedding under the system fault line outage. By further consideration of the uncertainty of the transmission line outage failure caused by the floods, the load shedding assessment model of the power system based on chance constrained is proposed, and the solution method of the model is researched.
4. On the basic of analyzing the impact of floods on the hydroelectric power, the load shedding assessment model of the power system by considering the safety of the reservoirs of the power system is proposed, and the losses of load shedding is evaluated. By analysis of the random nature of the flood flow and by considering the multiple correlation of the flood flow storage reservoir, the joint probability of the numbers of distribution storage reservoirs of flood flow is calculated. By further consideration of the uncertainty of the flood flows caused by the floods, the load shedding assessment model of the power system based on chance constrained is proposed, and the solution method of the model is researched.
5. For the problem that the faults of load shedding in power system caused by floods, the economic loss assessment model of the power outages is proposed. Based on the user's electrical characteristics, the direct economic loss assessment models of the power outages for the construct industrial, commercial and residential customers are proposed. The indirect economic losses of the power outages which caused by the floods is estimated by using CGE, and the direct economic losses from the power industry and the power users use as an exogenous shock value.
In conclusion, a complete set of the economic losses of the power outages assessment system is proposed in this paper, with the combination of predicting the probability of power system fault caused by the floods, the load shedding assessment model of the power system and the economic loss assessment model of the power outages, and by further study the formation of the economic losses of the power system and the comprehensive impact of the power outages. It can evaluate the power losses and the related economic losses caused by the floods effectively, and it also can provide relief measures for decision-making and the scientific development of protection for the emergency disaster.
引文
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