东亚金融合作制度设计和效应研究
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摘要
1997-1998年亚洲金融危机表明，金融一体化使东亚各国经济相互依赖程度日益加深，区域金融稳定已成为一种公共产品，东亚国家存在共同的金融结构性问题，因此区域性的货币金融合作便成为防治金融危机、提高金融稳定的重要工具。本文在系统地回顾了东亚货币金融合作已有构想的基础上，界定了本文的研究范围，即东亚金融合作，从分析东亚金融体系的脆弱性入手，设计东亚金融合作的各项内容和合作模式，用实证数据分析了东亚金融合作给东亚各经济体带来的效应，最后基于以上分析提出中国参与金融合作的战略。
在对东亚金融体系的脆弱性的分析中，论文首先着眼于脆弱性的体现：银行体系脆弱性、证券市场的发展不足和金融市场一体化程度低下，然后分析了脆弱性的根源，最后这种脆弱性如何演化成金融危机并对金融和经济发展造成损害的过程。东亚金融合作的制度设计是基于东亚金融体系脆弱性的分析基础之上的：合作的内容包括地区金融监督、金融监管合作、亚洲债券市场、股票市场合作，合作模式的研究包括分析东亚各经济体的经济关系、剖析东亚金融合作的各种可选模式、最后选择东盟+3作为现实的金融合作模式。东亚金融合作制度设计的目的是提高银行体系的稳健性、发展金融市场、促进东亚地区的金融市场一体化，因而东亚金融合作的效应分析则包括金融稳定效应、经济增长效应和风险分担效应，最后是中国参与金融合作模式的收益、原则和具体战略。
论文的研究发现：东亚金融体系脆弱性的根源在于法律法规不健全、金融基础设施落后、资本市场开放不足等，而这些脆弱表现如果不加以控制，则会发展为金融危机，各经济体居民不能充分地进行风险分担，对东亚国家的金融发展和经济增长构成障碍。东亚金融合作的各项制度正是本着降低金融脆弱性，促进经济增长的目标来设计的。东亚金融合作效应的实证结果表明，东亚金融合作的各项设计能够促进东亚地区金融体系的稳健性，使金融经济实现稳定发展；东亚金融合作能够促进金融发展和金融结构的改善，从而带来经济增长；东亚金融合作使东亚地区的投资者能够有更大的统一的金融市场来进行风险分担，从而增加各经济体居民的福利水平。
The 1997-1998 Asian financial crisis surfaced the facts such as the increasing economic interdependence leading by financial integration between countries in Asia, the regional financial stability as a public good and the common structural financial problems facing East Asian Economies. Therefore, the regional monetary and financial cooperation has become a significant tool for crisis prevention and management and financial stability enhancement. On the basis of the reference on the existing proposals for monetary and financial cooperation in East Asia, this dissertation defines the scope of this study, i.e. East Asian financial cooperation, and it designs the contents and model of cooperation in light of the analysis on the financial fragility in East Asian economies. The following chapters study empirically the effects that financial cooperation brings to the East Asia economies, the proper cooperation model in the current situation and the strategies that China should follow in East Asian financial cooperation.
The chapter on financial fragility in East Asia firstly focuses in the reflections of the fragility, namely banking system fragility, underdevelopment of security markets and low degree of financial market integration. It then analyses the causes of the fragility and how the fragility can evolve into financial crisis and hamper financial and economic development. Based on the analysis on financial fragility, the dissertation designs the system of the financial cooperation, whose contents include regional financial surveillance, financial supervision cooperation, Asian bond market and stock market cooperation. The studies on cooperation model include comparison of different options of cooperation models in accordance with the analysis on the economic relations within East Asian economies, finally choose ASEAN+3 as a pragmatic model in light of theoretical and empirical studies. The design of the cooperation system aims at enhancing the soundness of the banking market, expanding financial markets and promoting financial integration in East Asia. The following chapter studies the effects that financial cooperation brings, including financial stability effect, economic growth effect and risk sharing effect, thus providing a theoretical and empirical evidence for the feasibility of financial cooperation in East Asia. The dissertation finally analyses the benefits that China gains from, principles and strategies that China should follow in the financial cooperation.
The findings are as follows:
The causes of financial fragility lie with unsound laws and regulations, backward financial infrastructures and low degree of openness in capital markets. If the financial fragility is not controlled and mitigated, it will evolve into financial crisis and constitute obstacles to the full risk sharing and financial and economic development in East Asian economies. It is in the purpose of mitigating financial fragility and promoting economic growth that the systems of financial cooperation are designed. The empirical studies on the effects of financial cooperation show that the implementation of the above systems can promote the soundness of financial system in East Asia, the financial development and improvement of financial structure, larger and unified financial markets for the investors to share their risks, thus leading to economic stability and growth and increasing the benefits of the people in the East Asian economies.
在对东亚金融体系的脆弱性的分析中，论文首先着眼于脆弱性的体现：银行体系脆弱性、证券市场的发展不足和金融市场一体化程度低下，然后分析了脆弱性的根源，最后这种脆弱性如何演化成金融危机并对金融和经济发展造成损害的过程。东亚金融合作的制度设计是基于东亚金融体系脆弱性的分析基础之上的：合作的内容包括地区金融监督、金融监管合作、亚洲债券市场、股票市场合作，合作模式的研究包括分析东亚各经济体的经济关系、剖析东亚金融合作的各种可选模式、最后选择东盟+3作为现实的金融合作模式。东亚金融合作制度设计的目的是提高银行体系的稳健性、发展金融市场、促进东亚地区的金融市场一体化，因而东亚金融合作的效应分析则包括金融稳定效应、经济增长效应和风险分担效应，最后是中国参与金融合作模式的收益、原则和具体战略。
论文的研究发现：东亚金融体系脆弱性的根源在于法律法规不健全、金融基础设施落后、资本市场开放不足等，而这些脆弱表现如果不加以控制，则会发展为金融危机，各经济体居民不能充分地进行风险分担，对东亚国家的金融发展和经济增长构成障碍。东亚金融合作的各项制度正是本着降低金融脆弱性，促进经济增长的目标来设计的。东亚金融合作效应的实证结果表明，东亚金融合作的各项设计能够促进东亚地区金融体系的稳健性，使金融经济实现稳定发展；东亚金融合作能够促进金融发展和金融结构的改善，从而带来经济增长；东亚金融合作使东亚地区的投资者能够有更大的统一的金融市场来进行风险分担，从而增加各经济体居民的福利水平。
The 1997-1998 Asian financial crisis surfaced the facts such as the increasing economic interdependence leading by financial integration between countries in Asia, the regional financial stability as a public good and the common structural financial problems facing East Asian Economies. Therefore, the regional monetary and financial cooperation has become a significant tool for crisis prevention and management and financial stability enhancement. On the basis of the reference on the existing proposals for monetary and financial cooperation in East Asia, this dissertation defines the scope of this study, i.e. East Asian financial cooperation, and it designs the contents and model of cooperation in light of the analysis on the financial fragility in East Asian economies. The following chapters study empirically the effects that financial cooperation brings to the East Asia economies, the proper cooperation model in the current situation and the strategies that China should follow in East Asian financial cooperation.
The chapter on financial fragility in East Asia firstly focuses in the reflections of the fragility, namely banking system fragility, underdevelopment of security markets and low degree of financial market integration. It then analyses the causes of the fragility and how the fragility can evolve into financial crisis and hamper financial and economic development. Based on the analysis on financial fragility, the dissertation designs the system of the financial cooperation, whose contents include regional financial surveillance, financial supervision cooperation, Asian bond market and stock market cooperation. The studies on cooperation model include comparison of different options of cooperation models in accordance with the analysis on the economic relations within East Asian economies, finally choose ASEAN+3 as a pragmatic model in light of theoretical and empirical studies. The design of the cooperation system aims at enhancing the soundness of the banking market, expanding financial markets and promoting financial integration in East Asia. The following chapter studies the effects that financial cooperation brings, including financial stability effect, economic growth effect and risk sharing effect, thus providing a theoretical and empirical evidence for the feasibility of financial cooperation in East Asia. The dissertation finally analyses the benefits that China gains from, principles and strategies that China should follow in the financial cooperation.
The findings are as follows:
The causes of financial fragility lie with unsound laws and regulations, backward financial infrastructures and low degree of openness in capital markets. If the financial fragility is not controlled and mitigated, it will evolve into financial crisis and constitute obstacles to the full risk sharing and financial and economic development in East Asian economies. It is in the purpose of mitigating financial fragility and promoting economic growth that the systems of financial cooperation are designed. The empirical studies on the effects of financial cooperation show that the implementation of the above systems can promote the soundness of financial system in East Asia, the financial development and improvement of financial structure, larger and unified financial markets for the investors to share their risks, thus leading to economic stability and growth and increasing the benefits of the people in the East Asian economies.
引文
1 东南亚各经济体包括韩国、台湾、新加坡、印度尼西亚、马来西亚、缅甸、菲律宾、泰国、蒙古、巴布亚新几内亚、尼泊尔和斯里兰卡。
2 11个国家和地区是：澳大利亚、中国、香港、印度尼西亚、日本、韩国、马来西亚、新西兰、菲律宾、新加坡和泰国。
3 14个国家和地区澳大利亚、文莱、加拿大、中国、香港、印度尼西亚、日本、韩国、马来西亚、新西兰、菲律宾、新加坡、泰国和美国。
4 东盟10国包括印度尼西亚、马来西亚、菲律宾、新加坡、泰国、文莱、越南、老挝、缅甸和柬埔寨。
5 东盟+3包括东盟10国和中国、日本和韩国。
6 日本国际货币事务研究所的Hajime Shinohara建议设立“地区稳定论坛”。据称，地区稳定论坛将促进地区政策对话，建立紧急金融援助机制，通过地区经济监督和合作预防未来的危机。位于东京的亚行研究院及其附属的亚洲政策论坛网络同样建议建立地区融资安排，以便起最终贷款人的作用，提供有效的地区监督和促进金融和公司结构重组。
7 青木昌彦(2001)把融资行为分为关系型融资(relational financing)和保持距离型。前者是一种初始融资者被预期在一系列法庭无法证实的事件状态下提供额外融资，而初始融资者预期到未来租金也愿意提供额外租金的融资方式，而不属于关系型融资的就是保持距离型融资。
8 ACU是亚洲开发银行对亚洲13个国家(中、日、韩及东盟)的货币按一定比例以“一篮子货币方式”算出。它不是可以当场使用的实物纸币，而是一种根据13个国家货币的价值、各国国内生产总值及贸易规模等因素制定的虚拟货币。因此，中、日、韩三国货币在期间所占比重较大，而缅甸等国家货币的比重较小。
9 金融稳定论坛网站http://www.fsforum.org/press/press_releases_94.html。
10 见王忠军(2004)。
11 数据来自邱永红，国际证券双边监管合作与协调研究http://www.esnai.net2006-4-24。
12 数据来自中国银行监督管理委员会网站http://www.cbrc.gov.cn。
13 数据来自中国证券监督管理委员会网站http://www.csrc.gov.cn。
14 数据来自邱永红，国际证券双边监管合作与协调研究http://www.esnai.net2006-4-24。
15 见Montiel(2004)。
16 见Montiel(2004)。
1 引自http://www.asianbondsonline.adb.org。
2 中国人民大学金融与证券研究所课题组，亚洲金融一体化研究，中国人民大学出版社，2006
3 纽交所：下一步融合的方向在亚洲，http://finance.people.com.cn/GB/42773/5575068.html。2007年4月4日，纽约—泛欧交易所集团股票在巴黎和纽约正式挂牌上市，交易代码为“NYX”。该股在欧交所旗下巴黎证券交易所的开盘价为75欧元，共有257，598，971股可供交易。基于以上数据，纽约—泛欧交易所集团市值为193．2亿欧元(258．1亿美元)，是全球最大的上市交易所集团。纽约—泛欧交易所由纽约证券交易所兼并欧洲证券交易所而组成，为全球首个跨大西洋的证券交易所，在纽约、巴黎、布鲁塞尔、阿姆斯特丹和里斯本拥有股票交易市场，并在伦敦拥有一个期货交易市场。
4 数据来自经济信息信息网教育版世经年鉴。
5 数据来自中国证券监督管理委员会网站http://www.csrc.gov.cn。
6 为了与纽约和欧洲的证券市场相抗衡，活跃区域内资金的流动和促进经济发展，日本东京证券交易所愿意联手香港、台北、新加坡、汉城、曼谷、马尼拉、雅加达、吉隆坡、上海、深圳等10个亚洲城市的证券交易所，共同研究市场一体化构想。据此，首先构筑11个证券交易所上市的股票和债券能相互自由买卖的制度与系统，建立一个大幅放宽对非本地居民限制的开放性外向型市场。同时为使今后同一企业能在各地和地区相互上市，研究制定统一的上市标准和信息披露标准等，共同开发新的金融商品(《中国证券报》，2002年2月27日)。
7 中国人民大学金融与证券研究所课题组，亚洲金融一体化研究，中国人民大学出版社，2006。
8 黄湘平，关于证券市场区域合作的几点看法，在2005中日经济高级论坛上的发言，http://mea.pku.edu.cn/show/showMessage.asp?iID=671。
9 中国大陆与香港共同举办的五方会议包括中国证监会、香港证监会、香港联交所、上海证券交易所和深圳证券交易所，目前五方已经进行了28次会议。
10 参与联网的5家亚洲证券公司包括日本蓝泽证券公司、台湾群益证券公司、韩国东远证券公司、香港大福证券集团及香港日亚证券公司。
11 五大证券公司携手亚洲股票上网交易《国际金融报》(2000年04月28日第一版)。
12 见张育军(2003)。
13 见张育军(2003)。
1 A Report Submitted by the ASEAN-China Expert Group on Economic Cooperation, "Forging Closer ASEAN-China Economic Relations in the Twenty-First Century, 2001/10, p31, http://www.aseansec.org/newdate/asean-chi.pdf。
2 [俄]美国害怕“黄色一体化”，生意人报，2004年8月16日。
3 见季年芳(2003)。
4 数据来自国研网。其中缅甸的人均GDP为187美元，老挝为400美元，柬埔寨为314美元。
5 这部分参见韦红(2005)。
6 [美]罗伯特·基欧汉、约瑟夫·奈著，门洪华译，权力与相互依赖[M]，北京大学出版社2002年，第242、243页。
7 Lee Hsien Loong, "The Future of East Asian Cooperation". May 25, 2005. http://www.aseansec.org/17474.html。
8 《每日新闻》2003年12月8日、12月12日。
9 参见路透社2003年12月12日电。
1 中国人民银行金融稳定分析小组，中国金融稳定报告(2005)，中国金融出版社，2005
2 见张礼卿、李建军(2005)
3 亚洲开发银行，东亚本币债券市场：危机后的七年(三)，首期《亚洲债券监测》，2004年11月，引自国研网
4 斯诺表示中国高达50％储蓄率很不正常资本市场发达利于金融稳定，国研网
5 巴曙松、矫静，亚洲债券基金的兴起及其发展：金融市场框架与研究综述，金融与经济，2006(1)
6 van Wincoop,1999,P116
7 从设立自由贸易区的角度分析，东盟+3模式也是最优的模式。对于以上中、日、韩三国与东盟的自由贸易区以及东盟+3参与的东亚自由贸易区究竟能给东亚各国带来多大的经济利益，東晓子(2004)，薛敬孝等(2004)用可计算一般均衡模型进行了定量评估。薛敬孝等(2004)以多国多部门静态可计算一般均衡模型(Computable General Equilibrium，CGE)为基本分析工具，对东盟、中国、日本和韩国之间建立自由贸易区的多种主要方案作了定量评估，其中不同方案对GDP及福利的影响见附表6-3和表6-4。比较东盟+中国、东盟+日本、东盟+韩国和东盟+3自由贸易区，不管是对GDP的影响还是对福利的影响，东盟+3自由贸易区都能给东亚各国(除新加坡和菲律宾以外)带来最大的利益。而对没有参加的国家而言，两项指标都有很大损失。比如，建立东盟+中国自由贸易区，日本的GDP变动和福利变动分别为-0.05％和-150.89亿美元，韩国的GDP变动和福利变动分别为-0.15％和-38.71亿美元。建立东盟+日本自由贸易区，中国的GDP虽有正的变动，但福利损失却高达-286.52美元。因此，从贸易合作模式角度而言，所有参加国受益最大的还是建立东盟+3自由贸易区，即东亚自由贸易区。
1 参见中国人民大学金融与证券研究所课题组，2006。
2 王少普．东亚合作：日本究竟怎样想[N]．解放日报，2007，1(13)：4。
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2 11个国家和地区是：澳大利亚、中国、香港、印度尼西亚、日本、韩国、马来西亚、新西兰、菲律宾、新加坡和泰国。
3 14个国家和地区澳大利亚、文莱、加拿大、中国、香港、印度尼西亚、日本、韩国、马来西亚、新西兰、菲律宾、新加坡、泰国和美国。
4 东盟10国包括印度尼西亚、马来西亚、菲律宾、新加坡、泰国、文莱、越南、老挝、缅甸和柬埔寨。
5 东盟+3包括东盟10国和中国、日本和韩国。
6 日本国际货币事务研究所的Hajime Shinohara建议设立“地区稳定论坛”。据称，地区稳定论坛将促进地区政策对话，建立紧急金融援助机制，通过地区经济监督和合作预防未来的危机。位于东京的亚行研究院及其附属的亚洲政策论坛网络同样建议建立地区融资安排，以便起最终贷款人的作用，提供有效的地区监督和促进金融和公司结构重组。
7 青木昌彦(2001)把融资行为分为关系型融资(relational financing)和保持距离型。前者是一种初始融资者被预期在一系列法庭无法证实的事件状态下提供额外融资，而初始融资者预期到未来租金也愿意提供额外租金的融资方式，而不属于关系型融资的就是保持距离型融资。
8 ACU是亚洲开发银行对亚洲13个国家(中、日、韩及东盟)的货币按一定比例以“一篮子货币方式”算出。它不是可以当场使用的实物纸币，而是一种根据13个国家货币的价值、各国国内生产总值及贸易规模等因素制定的虚拟货币。因此，中、日、韩三国货币在期间所占比重较大，而缅甸等国家货币的比重较小。
9 金融稳定论坛网站http://www.fsforum.org/press/press_releases_94.html。
10 见王忠军(2004)。
11 数据来自邱永红，国际证券双边监管合作与协调研究http://www.esnai.net2006-4-24。
12 数据来自中国银行监督管理委员会网站http://www.cbrc.gov.cn。
13 数据来自中国证券监督管理委员会网站http://www.csrc.gov.cn。
14 数据来自邱永红，国际证券双边监管合作与协调研究http://www.esnai.net2006-4-24。
15 见Montiel(2004)。
16 见Montiel(2004)。
1 引自http://www.asianbondsonline.adb.org。
2 中国人民大学金融与证券研究所课题组，亚洲金融一体化研究，中国人民大学出版社，2006
3 纽交所：下一步融合的方向在亚洲，http://finance.people.com.cn/GB/42773/5575068.html。2007年4月4日，纽约—泛欧交易所集团股票在巴黎和纽约正式挂牌上市，交易代码为“NYX”。该股在欧交所旗下巴黎证券交易所的开盘价为75欧元，共有257，598，971股可供交易。基于以上数据，纽约—泛欧交易所集团市值为193．2亿欧元(258．1亿美元)，是全球最大的上市交易所集团。纽约—泛欧交易所由纽约证券交易所兼并欧洲证券交易所而组成，为全球首个跨大西洋的证券交易所，在纽约、巴黎、布鲁塞尔、阿姆斯特丹和里斯本拥有股票交易市场，并在伦敦拥有一个期货交易市场。
4 数据来自经济信息信息网教育版世经年鉴。
5 数据来自中国证券监督管理委员会网站http://www.csrc.gov.cn。
6 为了与纽约和欧洲的证券市场相抗衡，活跃区域内资金的流动和促进经济发展，日本东京证券交易所愿意联手香港、台北、新加坡、汉城、曼谷、马尼拉、雅加达、吉隆坡、上海、深圳等10个亚洲城市的证券交易所，共同研究市场一体化构想。据此，首先构筑11个证券交易所上市的股票和债券能相互自由买卖的制度与系统，建立一个大幅放宽对非本地居民限制的开放性外向型市场。同时为使今后同一企业能在各地和地区相互上市，研究制定统一的上市标准和信息披露标准等，共同开发新的金融商品(《中国证券报》，2002年2月27日)。
7 中国人民大学金融与证券研究所课题组，亚洲金融一体化研究，中国人民大学出版社，2006。
8 黄湘平，关于证券市场区域合作的几点看法，在2005中日经济高级论坛上的发言，http://mea.pku.edu.cn/show/showMessage.asp?iID=671。
9 中国大陆与香港共同举办的五方会议包括中国证监会、香港证监会、香港联交所、上海证券交易所和深圳证券交易所，目前五方已经进行了28次会议。
10 参与联网的5家亚洲证券公司包括日本蓝泽证券公司、台湾群益证券公司、韩国东远证券公司、香港大福证券集团及香港日亚证券公司。
11 五大证券公司携手亚洲股票上网交易《国际金融报》(2000年04月28日第一版)。
12 见张育军(2003)。
13 见张育军(2003)。
1 A Report Submitted by the ASEAN-China Expert Group on Economic Cooperation, "Forging Closer ASEAN-China Economic Relations in the Twenty-First Century, 2001/10, p31, http://www.aseansec.org/newdate/asean-chi.pdf。
2 [俄]美国害怕“黄色一体化”，生意人报，2004年8月16日。
3 见季年芳(2003)。
4 数据来自国研网。其中缅甸的人均GDP为187美元，老挝为400美元，柬埔寨为314美元。
5 这部分参见韦红(2005)。
6 [美]罗伯特·基欧汉、约瑟夫·奈著，门洪华译，权力与相互依赖[M]，北京大学出版社2002年，第242、243页。
7 Lee Hsien Loong, "The Future of East Asian Cooperation". May 25, 2005. http://www.aseansec.org/17474.html。
8 《每日新闻》2003年12月8日、12月12日。
9 参见路透社2003年12月12日电。
1 中国人民银行金融稳定分析小组，中国金融稳定报告(2005)，中国金融出版社，2005
2 见张礼卿、李建军(2005)
3 亚洲开发银行，东亚本币债券市场：危机后的七年(三)，首期《亚洲债券监测》，2004年11月，引自国研网
4 斯诺表示中国高达50％储蓄率很不正常资本市场发达利于金融稳定，国研网
5 巴曙松、矫静，亚洲债券基金的兴起及其发展：金融市场框架与研究综述，金融与经济，2006(1)
6 van Wincoop,1999,P116
7 从设立自由贸易区的角度分析，东盟+3模式也是最优的模式。对于以上中、日、韩三国与东盟的自由贸易区以及东盟+3参与的东亚自由贸易区究竟能给东亚各国带来多大的经济利益，東晓子(2004)，薛敬孝等(2004)用可计算一般均衡模型进行了定量评估。薛敬孝等(2004)以多国多部门静态可计算一般均衡模型(Computable General Equilibrium，CGE)为基本分析工具，对东盟、中国、日本和韩国之间建立自由贸易区的多种主要方案作了定量评估，其中不同方案对GDP及福利的影响见附表6-3和表6-4。比较东盟+中国、东盟+日本、东盟+韩国和东盟+3自由贸易区，不管是对GDP的影响还是对福利的影响，东盟+3自由贸易区都能给东亚各国(除新加坡和菲律宾以外)带来最大的利益。而对没有参加的国家而言，两项指标都有很大损失。比如，建立东盟+中国自由贸易区，日本的GDP变动和福利变动分别为-0.05％和-150.89亿美元，韩国的GDP变动和福利变动分别为-0.15％和-38.71亿美元。建立东盟+日本自由贸易区，中国的GDP虽有正的变动，但福利损失却高达-286.52美元。因此，从贸易合作模式角度而言，所有参加国受益最大的还是建立东盟+3自由贸易区，即东亚自由贸易区。
1 参见中国人民大学金融与证券研究所课题组，2006。
2 王少普．东亚合作：日本究竟怎样想[N]．解放日报，2007，1(13)：4。
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