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消费者驱动的动态竞争战略研究
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摘要
消费者对企业产品提供的价值做出最终判断,而这种判断将决定企业是否能够在市场上存在与发展。当前企业面临的环境充满变动、竞争与挑战,消费者拥有的力量比任何时候都要强大,直接决定了企业的生死存亡,企业间竞争的战略模式也发生着根本性的变革,关注消费者成为众多企业的共识,而技术进步也为企业跟踪、把握客户需求和个性化生产提供了支持,从而使实施消费者导向战略成为可能;同时,激烈的竞争环境客观上要求企业战略具有相机性和动态性。企业实践中竞争战略的消费者导向和互动特征也日益显著。
     文章对相关领域的战略管理研究理论进行回顾,包括内外协调的战略理论、产业驱动的战略理论、资源视角的战略理论、能力视角的战略理论,在此基础上进一步对消费者视角的战略理论和动态竞争战略理论进行回顾,为消费者驱动的企业动态竞争战略研究提供理论支持。总体上看,之前的研究或者未能充分体现消费者对于企业竞争战略制定的决定作用,消费者因素只是作为形成企业战略的众多因素之一;或者受研究视角或方法的限制,仅体现一种静态的分析取向,对消费者之间、企业之间、消费者和企业之间的互动缺乏有效的分析和刻画。因此,有必要在以前研究的基础上,进一步突出战略的消费者导向性和动态性,丰富战略研究理论体系。
     消费者与企业构成基本市场系统,这些不同主体、不同类型主体之间的关联与交互将影响并塑造市场的结构与演化。而这种关联与交互背后就包含消费者驱动的企业动态竞争战略问题。文章提供一个描述消费者驱动的竞争战略分析框架,对不同主体之间的关系、结构与行为做出刻画,突出了主体的异质性、交互性、网络性等特征。对于具体消费者而言,其他消费者以及企业供给将影响其产品偏好,从而影响其产品选择。对于特定企业而言,消费者偏好、竞争对手、自身资源与能力将决定其产品供应。消费者之间、企业之间、消费者和企业间的交互将决定特定时刻最终的市场格局,从而揭示特定企业是否能够获得有利的市场地位,并体现其竞争优势。之后,在讨论不同消费者认知特点、价值追求的前提下,构建相应的产品比较、选择、偏好变化以及效用演进等方面的规则与模型。在关于企业资源与企业能力讨论的基础上,构造相应的消费者驱动的企业竞争战略规则。与之前的研究相比,上述模型及规则设定更为完善和精细化,能够更加深刻的反映和刻画消费者网络的动态性特征以及企业和消费者主体间的交互行为。
     基于ABM建模范式,设计不同的竞争情景,从而对相应情景下的消费者竞争战略之有效性做出检验。首先,从消费者、企业以及消费者-企业交互情况三个方面对可能出现的交互情景进行了系统分析,构造了系统的场景分类框架。就消费者而言,考虑消费者数量、消费者偏好、消费者网络结构及其局部网络大小、消费者的市场进入模式等关键因素;就企业而言,考虑企业数量、企业战略等关键因素;在消费者-企业交互层面,考虑企业产品提供与消费者偏好交互、企业产品提供匹配与企业能力交互、企业进入模式与消费者进入模式交互等情况。之后,详细地考察发生在Barabasi-Albert无标度网络(scale-free network)下的企业动态竞争行为,选取典型情景考察在企业资源与能力、消费者序贯进入、企业序贯进入(sequential entry)、消费者偏好等条件不同的前提下,消费者驱动的动态竞争战略的有效性以及不同战略对于企业经营与消费者效用的影响,分析消费者驱动的动态竞争战略的作用机制和制约条件。
     在SI-SI情景下,消费者和企业同步进入市场,通过模拟可以看出:(1)企业提供符合消费者期望的产品往往可以为其提供相应的市场优势,而为了达到这样的消费者期望契合性,可以从两条途径出发,一是企业具有相对较好的能力,从而可以更快地调整其产品以适应消费者的期望;二是企业能够直接提供更加符合消费者偏好的产品。(2)消费者导向战略的有效性需要一定的实施空间,如果这样的空间不足,则相应的战略效果就几乎不存在。
     在SI-SE情景下,消费者序贯进入市场,从而为市场竞争中的落后企业提供很好的市场逆转机会。在这部分模拟分析中,研究构造了具有不同偏好分布的消费者群体(对应现实中存在的不同细分市场),在其先后进入市场的前提下,研究确定了一类市场,在该类市场中落后企业可以利用后进入的消费者群体,实现市场地位逆转(NP-PLAL-LM-PD-E模式)。与此同时,研究确定了另外一类市场情景,在该情景下,落后企业不能实现上述目的(修正NP-PLAL-LM-PD-E模式)。此外,SI-SE模式下的分析初步展示了预期在企业竞争战略实施中所可能具有的重要价值。
     在SE-SI情景下,企业序贯进入市场,对应现实中的先动优势问题。研究通过具体的模拟情景确定了先动优势对于能力与产品供应同时较弱的企业具有的意义(NN-PRAR模式),并进而确定了先动优势得以成立的一些一般条件,如(1)消费者因为购买所产生的偏好适应与学习,(2)消费者因为共同购买相同的产品所产生的高认同感,与(3)企业自身的学习与调整。此外,研究设计了另外两类场景(NN-PRAE模式与NP-PBAR模式),展示了对于后进入企业而言化解对手先动优势的可能途径。
     在SE-SE情景下,企业与消费者均可以实现序贯进入,构成更为复杂的市场情景。这部分研究首先梳理了不同情景模式之间的关系,之后结合具体的情境设计(NP-PLAL-EFLM-PD模式),展示了SE-SE模式下后进入企业能够获得更多的机会实现后发优势。同时,研究设计了另外一类情景展示了如何现实地确定产品供应,实现市场后发优势(NP-AL-CFLM-PD-C模式)。
     在上述分析的基础上,总结出实施消费者驱动的动态竞争战略的CAPET分析框架。消费者提供了企业战略的方向。为了获取竞争优势,企业的产品必须为消费者提供较其他企业产品更多的价值,这依托于企业的资源和能力状况。时间或者说时机在很大程度上限定了企业实施战略所可能存在的调整空间。预期能够放大企业战略实施的有效性。
     论文最后总结了研究成果,指出研究所具有的理论与实践意义,并就未来可能的研究方向做出了展望。
Consumers make the final judgments of the values of the products, and these judgments will detemines the survival and development of the enterprises in the market. Currently enterprises are facing the environment full of changes, competitions and challenges, and consumers have powers that are stronger than any time before. The strategic modes of competitions among enterprises have also undergone a fundamental change, and consumer-focus becomes the enterprise's consensus. Technological progress also provides the support to the enterprises to track and grasp the needs of consumers as well as the customization; therefore, it makes implementation of consumer-driven strategy possible. Simultaneously, the severe competitive market circumstance demands that the enterprise strategy keep contigent and dynamic, which becomes more and more prominent in practice.
     This dissertation reviews the theories of strategic management, including early views, Porter's views, resource-based views and capability-based Views. And both the dynamic and consumer-driven competitive strategy theories are reviewed. All of these provide the theoretical support for studies of dynamic competitive strategy from a consumer perspecive. Generally speaking, previous studies failed to fully embody the consumers'decisive role in the enterprise competition strategy, regarding the consumers as only one of the factors affecting the formation of enterprise strategy; or only to reflect one kind of static analysis orientation for consumers due to reserach angles or methods, which lead to uneffective analysis and characterization of enterprises, consumers and their interactions with each other. Therefore, it is necessary to highlight the dynamic and consumer-driven characteristic of the strategy, in order to enrich the strategy research.
     Basic market systerm consists of consumers and enterprises, and the relations and interactions between different types of agents will influence the market and determine the structure and evolution of the market. These relations and interactions reveal the mechanism of the dynamic consumer-driven competitive strategy. This paper provides a framework to describ the consumer-driven competitive strategy, and to portray the relationships, structures and behaviors among different agents.And the framework make the heterogeneity, dynamics and network characteristic of agents stand out. With regard to consumer agent, other consumers and enterprise supply will affect his product preferences, and then affect his product selection. With regard to enterprise agent, consumers'preferences, competitors, and its resources and abilities will determine its product offering. Enterprises, consumers and their interactions with each other will determine the final market structure, thus reveals which enterprise seizes favorable market position. Then, under the discussion on different consumer's cognitive characteristics and value pursuits, the paper sets up the rules and models on their product comparison, selection, preference changes and utility evolution etc. Based on discussions of the enterprise resources and abilities, it constructs the corresponding consumer-driven competive strategy rules. Compared with previous research, the above models and rules are much more delicate, and can make profound reflection and depiction of the consumers'network dynamic characteristic and the interactive behaviors between agents of the enterprises and the consumers.
     Based on ABM modeling paradigm, the paper designs different competition scenarios to exam the validity of the dynamic consumer-driven competitive strategy. Firstly, it gives a systematical analysis on the possible interactions among the consumers, enterprises, and the interactions with each other, and constructs systematical scenario segments. In simulation designs, the key factors of consumers, including consumers quantity, consumer preferences, consumer network structure, local network size, consumer market entry modes; the key factors of enterprise, including enterprises quantity, enterprise strategy, etc; and consumers-enterprises interaction factors,including enterprise products supply and consumer preferences interaction, enterprise product offering and enterprise capacity interaction, enterprise entry mode and the consumers entry mode interaction,are discussed. Secondly, analyzes enterprise dynamic competitive behaviors under the Barabasi-Albert scale-free network. Paper selects typical scenarios to investigate the validity of the dynamic consumer-driven competitive strategy and different strategies'influences to the enterprises and consumers under the different combinations of enterprise resource and capacity, consumers sequential entry, enterprise sequential entry and consumers preference, etc, and analyzes the effect mechanism and restrictive conditions of dynamic consumer-driven competitive strategy.
     In SI-SI scenario, where consumers and enterprises enter the market simultaneously, through simulation analysis paper gets following conclusions:(1) enterprise providing products that meet the consumers'expectations can often gain the corresponding market advantages, and there are two ways to better meet consumer expectations, one is that enterprise have relatively good ability, thus can adjust its products more quickly to meet consumers'expectations;the other is that the enterprise can directly provide prefered products of consumers. (2) the validity of consumer-driven strategy requires a certain implementation space, if such space is insufficient, the strategy will be uneffetive.
     In SI-SE scenario, consumers enter the market sequentially, which provides a good marketing opportunity for the market follower. In this part of the simulation analysis, it studies and constructs consumer groups with different preferences distribution (corresponding to the different segments of the market in reality), given their sequential entry, the study has figured out a kind of market, in which the market follower can achieve market position reversal through better meeting the late-entry consumers (NP-PLAL-LM-PD-E mode). Meanwhile, the study has identified another kind of market situation, in which the enterprise is unable to achieve this purpose above (modified NP-PLAL-LM-PD-E mode). In addition, SI-SE mode analysis also shows the important value of the expectation that may exert in the enterprise competition strategy implementation.
     In SE-SI scenario, the enterprises enter the market sequentially, which simulates first-mover-advantage problem in reality. Research by a specific simulation scenario shows the significance of first-mover-advantage for the enterprise with poor capability and products (NN-PRAR model), and then figures out some general conditions for the achievement of first-mover-advantage. (1) consumers' adaption of preference and study depend on the purchase, (2) consumers' sense of identity depend on the purchase of the same productions (3) enterprise's own learning and adjust. In addition, it designs two different scenarios (NN-PRAE mode and NP-PBAR mode), demonstrateing how to counteract the opponent first-mover advantages.
     In SE-SE scenario, both the enterprises and consumers enter the market sequentially, which constitutes a more complicated market situation. This part of the research first sorts the relationship between different settings modes, then considering the specific situation design (NP-PLAL-EFLM-PD mode), demonstrates the late-entry enterprise can obtain more opportunities to achieve the first-mover-advantage in SE-SE mode. Meanwhile, the study designs another kind of scene shows how to determine the product supply to achieve late-mover-advantage (NP-CFLM-AL-PD-C mode).
     On the basis of the above analysis, the paper proposes the CAPET analysis framework of the dynamic consumer-driven competitive strategy. Consumer is the focus of enterprise strategiy. The products of enterprise must provide consumers with more value than other enterprises'products, which depend on its abilities and resources. Time determines the adjustable space to a great extent of enterprise strategy implementation, which also becomes an important restriction. Expectation can enlarge the effectiveness of enterprises strategy implementation.
     Paper finally summarizes the research achievements, points out the theoretical and practical meanings, and concludes with the discussions of the future research themes.
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