参与式森林生态系统管理模式构建与风险评价研究
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摘要
当前,我国南方集体林区的林业产权制度改革正在全面铺开,已经明晰产权的大量分散的小规模森林如何实现可持续经营,成了南方各省制定产权制度改革配套政策的焦点。因此,如何将森林资源管理与社会改革相结合,探索一些既能保证林农经济利益、又能较好地实现森林生态效益和社会效益的可持续经营模式,对于保证林权制度改革顺利实施具有非常重要的现实意义。
2005~2009年,本研究通过分析生态系统管理理论产生的背景与研究现状,并在比较、分析和借鉴国外森林生态系统管理模式的基础上,吸收森林生态系统管理理念和参与式思想的精髓,提出了构建参与式森林生态系统管理模式的理论框架,探讨了该模式综合风险评价的理论与方法。同时以福建省永安市安砂镇为案例点,在充分考虑区域自然条件、社会经济发展水平和地域文化体系差异的基础上,对安砂镇的参与式森林生态系统管理模式进行综合风险评价,并提出实施该模式的相关配套保障体系,为实现当地森林可持续经营探索新的途径,为我国今后实施森林生态系统管理提供参考和借鉴。主要研究结果如下:
(1)参与式森林生态系统管理模式是在充分借鉴国际上关于森林生态系统管理理念和参与式思想及其实践的基础上,提出的符合我国自然、经济、社会和文化发展背景的本土化的一种森林资源管理模式。它是以生态系统管理思想为理念,以实现生态、经济和社会效益协调统一的森林可持续经营为最终目标,以适应性管理为核心,以阶段性风险评价和长期监测评估为手段,建立起相关利益团体(包括社区居民)共同参与的组织机构,并具有便捷快速灵活的反馈机制的一种独具特色的森林资源经营管理体系。显然,该模式突出强调了相关利益团体,特别是社区居民在管理中的全过程参与,充分调动了社区居民的积极性和主动性。
(2)参与式森林生态系统管理模式的相关利益团体通过多方参与的决策机制,形成了多层次的结构化目标体系。多目标也意味着多风险,为了协调森林生态系统多目标利用的矛盾,以及预测和防范潜在的多风险,需要在林分、集水区、流域、景观乃至区域尺度上,通过合理规划,在时间和空间上对森林生态系统进行跨尺度、多风险的综合管理。因此,参与式森林生态系统管理模式也必须有相应的跨尺度、多风险源的风险评价方法,其中的风险源不仅仅包括各种生态风险压力因子,还应该包括各种社会、经济的风险压力因子,即从单一的生态风险评价拓展到生态、经济和社会综合风险评价。
(3)通过阶段性的风险评价和长期的监测评估,对森林生态系统管理模式的实施效果进行动态评价,为适应性管理提供决策信息,是参与式森林生态系统管理的核心和关键。其中,生态风险评价是用来估计森林生态系统逆向变化概率的一种方法,它在森林生态系统管理中占有非常重要的位置。经济和社会风险评价也同样重要,因为单纯地强调生态风险管理,其成本和代价非常高,甚至在技术上是不可行的,因而,增加了经济和社会等因素后,综合风险评价将提高其全面性和可行性,成为迈向综合政策的一种整合工具。
(4)通过分析,发现参与式森林生态系统管理是安砂镇实现森林可持续经营的重要途径。一是可以提高林农参与的效率。明确了林农在管理过程中的参与方式、参与步骤和工作内容,将林农参与过程规范化。二是将分散的林农联合成一个整体,可以实现规模经济。通过制定森林生态系统管理方案,可以申请独立的采伐指标,可以统一贷款,既实现了适度规模经营,又能有效地防止林农“失山失地”的现象。三是可以协调多方利益冲突。考虑到“所有资源托管人”的意愿,权衡社会各类人士的利益,以长远的观点来协调目前短期的利益。四是可以逐步实现森林可持续经营。强调用森林生态系统管理的理念来经营管理森林,并且在生产经营过程中,进行不定期的风险评价和长期的监测评估,一旦发现风险超过预期值,会及时对经营措施和管理方案进行调整。
(5)参与式森林生态系统管理综合风险可以简化为“林农-森林”复合生态系统在经营管理过程中产生的综合风险。根据安砂镇“林农-森林”复合生态系统综合风险影响因素的分析结果,结合实际数据的可得性,提出构建评价指标体系的初步框架。其中生态风险指标有8个,经济风险指标有17个,社会风险指标有12个,但相互之间的指标有部分重叠,因为某些指标可能会同时影响生态、经济和社会风险的大小。
(6)研究经过BP神经网络模拟得到的样本生态风险值、经济风险值以及社会风险值,并通过聚类分析,将样本分为三种类型。第一种类型的经济风险、生态风险和社会风险都相对比较低,综合风险最低;这种类型的特点是林地上的树种往往不止一种,单块林地的规模较大,这反映了林地生物多样性对于降低综合风险有着重要的作用;第二种类型的经济风险偏高,社会风险与生态风险适中;这种类型的特点是经营的林地面积都比较多,属于大户经营型,这些大户在农村中处于社会或经济的强势地位,往往通过转让、承包等方式从他人手中租入大量的林地,投入资金比较大,因此要面对更大的经济风险;第三种类型的经济风险、生态风险以及社会风险都很高;这种类型的特点是林地经营期限比较短、树种单一、林地贫瘠,因此综合风险较高。本研究表明,借助BP神经网络模型和聚类分析法,不仅可以对复合生态系统的单一风险和综合风险进行评价,而且通过对聚类结果组间的比较分析和综合分析,可以发现风险产生的主要影响因素,为调整参与式森林生态系统管理方案提供科学的参考依据。
(7)森林生态系统管理不仅仅关系到自然科学,更多地涉及到社会、经济和文化问题,需要社会、经济和政治力量的支持和驱动,需要纳入市场经济体系中去运作,以经济和行政手段来推进,因此,它的顺利实施必须有一个相应的保障体系。明晰产权就是给社区居民(林农)赋权,也是南方集体林区实施参与式森林生态系统管理模式的前提条件。参与式森林生态系统管理模式通过建立由相关利益团体(包括林农)共同参与,具有便捷快速灵活的反馈机制,且相对稳定的组织机构,对森林资源进行经营管理。这种管理组织为林农参与管理提供了稳定高效的平台,解决了“参与式林业”操作性程序不规范的问题,同时又充分吸收了“参与式林业”的思想精髓,是南方集体林区实现森林可持续经营的一种重要的组织形式。
At present, the forestry property right system reform in collective forest area in Southern China is implementing. How to implement sustainable forest management which has a clear property right has become the focus of the supporting policies concerning property right system reform in Southern China. Therefore, how to integrate the forest resource management with the society reform and to explore some of sustainable forest management models cannot only guarantee the benefits forest farmer’s economic, but also achieve ecological benefits and social benefits, which is significant to guarantee the successful implementation of the forestry property right system reform.
In this study, the backgrounds of the forest ecosystem management theory and research status are analyzed. In addition, on the basis of comparing, analyzing and referring to overseas forest ecosystem management models as well as absorbing the forest ecosystem management theory and the essence of participatory idea, the theoretical framework of the participatory forest ecosystem management model is proposed, and the theory and method of the forest ecosystem management model integrated risk assessment are discussed. At the same time, a case of the forest ecosystem management of Ansha town in Yongan city Fujian province is studied along with the consideration of its natural conditions, social economic development level, and the difference of the cultural systems. Based on the previous experiment, the comprehensive risk assessment of participatory forest ecosystem management model is studied in Ansha town, and the related necessary guarantee systems on implementing the model are proposed. It is a new way to realize sustainable management of the local forest and gives reference to implementing the forest ecosystem management in China. The main results of the research are as follows:
(1)The participatory forest ecosystem management model refers to a characteristic and steady forest resource management system, which has an expeditious and flexible feedback mechanism. Its idea comes from ecosystem management ideology, with the final goal of realizing forest sustainable management which is a harmony of ecological, economic and social benefits, with the adaptability management as the key content, by the means of phase risk assessment and perennial monitoring and evaluation, and with the related interest group including community residents participating in the organization. It is a forest resource management model in accordance with the development of Chinese nature, economy, society and culture, which is based on the forest ecosystem management theory and the participatory idea. It emphasizes the participation of the related interest group, especially the complete participation of the community residents, and mobilizes the enthusiasm of the community residents sufficiently.
(2)The aim of the forest ecosystem management determines the scale and boundary of management. The multi-scale goal structure system of the participatory forest ecosystem management comes from the multi-participation decision-making mechanism of the related interest group. The multi-goal also means the multi-risk. In order to coordinate and counterpoise the conflicts of the multi-goal, forecast and prevent the potential multi-risk, it needs integrated management of forest ecosystem in a trans-scale and multi-risk way by reasonable planning. Therefore, the participatory forest ecosystem management model needs the risk assessment in the same trans-scale and multi-risk-source way, and the risk source includes not only ecological risk pressure factors, but also social and economic risk pressure factors, namely, from single ecological risk assessment to the integrated risk assessment.
(3)With the dynamic evaluation of the implementing effect of the forest ecosystem management model, by the means of phase risk assessment and perennial monitoring and evaluation, offering the decision-making information for adaptability management is the key content of the participatory forest ecosystem management. The ecological risk assessment is a method to estimate the converse changes probability of the forest ecosystem and it is important in the forest ecosystem management. At the same time, the economic and social risk assessment is important too, because the cost is very high and sometimes there is no available technology to emphasize ecological risk management. The integrated risk assessment can improve the comprehensiveness and feasibility by including economic and social factors, becoming s an integration tool to comprehensive policy.
(4) The participatory forest ecosystem management is an important way to realize forest sustainable management. First, it can improve the participation efficiency of forest farmers. After making it clear to forest farmers how to participate in management, and the approach of participation, the participation enthusiasm of forest farmers becomes more modelized and standard. Second, it can achieve scale economy. It can unite the dispersive forest farmers to form a whole who apply for the independent cutting quota and the united loan, by making the project of forest ecosystem management. Not only can it realize moderate scale management, but also avoid forest farmers losing forest land. Third, it can coordinate the conflict of interests among stakeholders. It takes the desirability of all resource stakeholders into consideration, balances the benefits of various social strata, and coordinates the short-term benefits in long-term viewpoint. At last, it can achieve forest sustainable management, emphasizing the idea of forest ecosystem management to manage forests. It will quickly adjust the management measure and project in case the risk exceeds anticipation, by the means of aperiodic risk assessment and perennial monitoring and evaluation,
(5) The integrated risk of the participatory forest ecosystem management can predigest as the integrated risk of managing the farmers-forest complex ecosystem. The framework of the risk assessment index system is proposed, by analyzing the influence factors of the integrated risk of the farmers-forest complex ecosystem, and by considering the availability of data. It includes eight ecological risk indexes, seventeen economic risk indexes, and twelve social risk indexes. And some of the indexes are the same, because certain indexes influence not only ecological risk, but also economic and social risk.
(6)In the study, the ecological, economic and social risk expectation of the samples comes from the simulation of BP network, and the samples can be clustered into three types by the method of clustering analysis. In the first type, all of the ecological, economic and social risk is relatively low, and the integrated risk is the lowest. The characteristic of this type is that there isn’t only one tree specie planted in the forest land, and that every forest land has bigger area. It means the biodiversity of forest land is important for reducing the integrated risk. In the second type, the economic risk is relatively high, social and ecological risk is moderate. The characteristic of this type is that the forest management has more forest lands, which belongs to the type of large family management. The large family has strong status in the country, and leases more forest lands by land transfer and contract with large capital input. So they must face higher economic risk. In the third type, all of the ecological, economic and social risk is very high. The characteristic of this type is shortness of management term, singleness tree specie and lean forest land, thus the integrated risk is higher. The study indicates that, by the method of BP network model and clustering analysis, not only can it evaluate the single and integrated risk of the complex ecosystem, but it can also discover the main influencing factors of risk by analyzing the clustering results. It can provide scientific reference to adjusting the project of the participatory forest ecosystem management.
(7)The forest ecosystem management is not only about natural science, but it is also related to society, economy and culture. It needs society, economy and political power to sustain and drive forward, and it must be carried out in the market economy system by means of economy and administration. Therefore, it needs a corresponding guarantee system for successful implementation. The clear property right means to give community residents the right to manage forest, and it is the precondition of implementing participatory forest ecosystem management in collective forest area in Southern China. The participatory forest ecosystem management model has a relatively stable organization to manage forest resource, with the related interest group including forest farms participating in it, which has expeditious and flexible feedback mechanism. The organization offers a stable and efficient management platform for forest farms participating in management. Not only does it resolves the problem of the lack of participatory forestry maneuverability, but it also absorbs the ideological quintessence of the participatory forestry. It is an important organization form to realize forest sustainable management in collective forest area in Southern China.
2005~2009年,本研究通过分析生态系统管理理论产生的背景与研究现状,并在比较、分析和借鉴国外森林生态系统管理模式的基础上,吸收森林生态系统管理理念和参与式思想的精髓,提出了构建参与式森林生态系统管理模式的理论框架,探讨了该模式综合风险评价的理论与方法。同时以福建省永安市安砂镇为案例点,在充分考虑区域自然条件、社会经济发展水平和地域文化体系差异的基础上,对安砂镇的参与式森林生态系统管理模式进行综合风险评价,并提出实施该模式的相关配套保障体系,为实现当地森林可持续经营探索新的途径,为我国今后实施森林生态系统管理提供参考和借鉴。主要研究结果如下:
(1)参与式森林生态系统管理模式是在充分借鉴国际上关于森林生态系统管理理念和参与式思想及其实践的基础上,提出的符合我国自然、经济、社会和文化发展背景的本土化的一种森林资源管理模式。它是以生态系统管理思想为理念,以实现生态、经济和社会效益协调统一的森林可持续经营为最终目标,以适应性管理为核心,以阶段性风险评价和长期监测评估为手段,建立起相关利益团体(包括社区居民)共同参与的组织机构,并具有便捷快速灵活的反馈机制的一种独具特色的森林资源经营管理体系。显然,该模式突出强调了相关利益团体,特别是社区居民在管理中的全过程参与,充分调动了社区居民的积极性和主动性。
(2)参与式森林生态系统管理模式的相关利益团体通过多方参与的决策机制,形成了多层次的结构化目标体系。多目标也意味着多风险,为了协调森林生态系统多目标利用的矛盾,以及预测和防范潜在的多风险,需要在林分、集水区、流域、景观乃至区域尺度上,通过合理规划,在时间和空间上对森林生态系统进行跨尺度、多风险的综合管理。因此,参与式森林生态系统管理模式也必须有相应的跨尺度、多风险源的风险评价方法,其中的风险源不仅仅包括各种生态风险压力因子,还应该包括各种社会、经济的风险压力因子,即从单一的生态风险评价拓展到生态、经济和社会综合风险评价。
(3)通过阶段性的风险评价和长期的监测评估,对森林生态系统管理模式的实施效果进行动态评价,为适应性管理提供决策信息,是参与式森林生态系统管理的核心和关键。其中,生态风险评价是用来估计森林生态系统逆向变化概率的一种方法,它在森林生态系统管理中占有非常重要的位置。经济和社会风险评价也同样重要,因为单纯地强调生态风险管理,其成本和代价非常高,甚至在技术上是不可行的,因而,增加了经济和社会等因素后,综合风险评价将提高其全面性和可行性,成为迈向综合政策的一种整合工具。
(4)通过分析,发现参与式森林生态系统管理是安砂镇实现森林可持续经营的重要途径。一是可以提高林农参与的效率。明确了林农在管理过程中的参与方式、参与步骤和工作内容,将林农参与过程规范化。二是将分散的林农联合成一个整体,可以实现规模经济。通过制定森林生态系统管理方案,可以申请独立的采伐指标,可以统一贷款,既实现了适度规模经营,又能有效地防止林农“失山失地”的现象。三是可以协调多方利益冲突。考虑到“所有资源托管人”的意愿,权衡社会各类人士的利益,以长远的观点来协调目前短期的利益。四是可以逐步实现森林可持续经营。强调用森林生态系统管理的理念来经营管理森林,并且在生产经营过程中,进行不定期的风险评价和长期的监测评估,一旦发现风险超过预期值,会及时对经营措施和管理方案进行调整。
(5)参与式森林生态系统管理综合风险可以简化为“林农-森林”复合生态系统在经营管理过程中产生的综合风险。根据安砂镇“林农-森林”复合生态系统综合风险影响因素的分析结果,结合实际数据的可得性,提出构建评价指标体系的初步框架。其中生态风险指标有8个,经济风险指标有17个,社会风险指标有12个,但相互之间的指标有部分重叠,因为某些指标可能会同时影响生态、经济和社会风险的大小。
(6)研究经过BP神经网络模拟得到的样本生态风险值、经济风险值以及社会风险值,并通过聚类分析,将样本分为三种类型。第一种类型的经济风险、生态风险和社会风险都相对比较低,综合风险最低;这种类型的特点是林地上的树种往往不止一种,单块林地的规模较大,这反映了林地生物多样性对于降低综合风险有着重要的作用;第二种类型的经济风险偏高,社会风险与生态风险适中;这种类型的特点是经营的林地面积都比较多,属于大户经营型,这些大户在农村中处于社会或经济的强势地位,往往通过转让、承包等方式从他人手中租入大量的林地,投入资金比较大,因此要面对更大的经济风险;第三种类型的经济风险、生态风险以及社会风险都很高;这种类型的特点是林地经营期限比较短、树种单一、林地贫瘠,因此综合风险较高。本研究表明,借助BP神经网络模型和聚类分析法,不仅可以对复合生态系统的单一风险和综合风险进行评价,而且通过对聚类结果组间的比较分析和综合分析,可以发现风险产生的主要影响因素,为调整参与式森林生态系统管理方案提供科学的参考依据。
(7)森林生态系统管理不仅仅关系到自然科学,更多地涉及到社会、经济和文化问题,需要社会、经济和政治力量的支持和驱动,需要纳入市场经济体系中去运作,以经济和行政手段来推进,因此,它的顺利实施必须有一个相应的保障体系。明晰产权就是给社区居民(林农)赋权,也是南方集体林区实施参与式森林生态系统管理模式的前提条件。参与式森林生态系统管理模式通过建立由相关利益团体(包括林农)共同参与,具有便捷快速灵活的反馈机制,且相对稳定的组织机构,对森林资源进行经营管理。这种管理组织为林农参与管理提供了稳定高效的平台,解决了“参与式林业”操作性程序不规范的问题,同时又充分吸收了“参与式林业”的思想精髓,是南方集体林区实现森林可持续经营的一种重要的组织形式。
At present, the forestry property right system reform in collective forest area in Southern China is implementing. How to implement sustainable forest management which has a clear property right has become the focus of the supporting policies concerning property right system reform in Southern China. Therefore, how to integrate the forest resource management with the society reform and to explore some of sustainable forest management models cannot only guarantee the benefits forest farmer’s economic, but also achieve ecological benefits and social benefits, which is significant to guarantee the successful implementation of the forestry property right system reform.
In this study, the backgrounds of the forest ecosystem management theory and research status are analyzed. In addition, on the basis of comparing, analyzing and referring to overseas forest ecosystem management models as well as absorbing the forest ecosystem management theory and the essence of participatory idea, the theoretical framework of the participatory forest ecosystem management model is proposed, and the theory and method of the forest ecosystem management model integrated risk assessment are discussed. At the same time, a case of the forest ecosystem management of Ansha town in Yongan city Fujian province is studied along with the consideration of its natural conditions, social economic development level, and the difference of the cultural systems. Based on the previous experiment, the comprehensive risk assessment of participatory forest ecosystem management model is studied in Ansha town, and the related necessary guarantee systems on implementing the model are proposed. It is a new way to realize sustainable management of the local forest and gives reference to implementing the forest ecosystem management in China. The main results of the research are as follows:
(1)The participatory forest ecosystem management model refers to a characteristic and steady forest resource management system, which has an expeditious and flexible feedback mechanism. Its idea comes from ecosystem management ideology, with the final goal of realizing forest sustainable management which is a harmony of ecological, economic and social benefits, with the adaptability management as the key content, by the means of phase risk assessment and perennial monitoring and evaluation, and with the related interest group including community residents participating in the organization. It is a forest resource management model in accordance with the development of Chinese nature, economy, society and culture, which is based on the forest ecosystem management theory and the participatory idea. It emphasizes the participation of the related interest group, especially the complete participation of the community residents, and mobilizes the enthusiasm of the community residents sufficiently.
(2)The aim of the forest ecosystem management determines the scale and boundary of management. The multi-scale goal structure system of the participatory forest ecosystem management comes from the multi-participation decision-making mechanism of the related interest group. The multi-goal also means the multi-risk. In order to coordinate and counterpoise the conflicts of the multi-goal, forecast and prevent the potential multi-risk, it needs integrated management of forest ecosystem in a trans-scale and multi-risk way by reasonable planning. Therefore, the participatory forest ecosystem management model needs the risk assessment in the same trans-scale and multi-risk-source way, and the risk source includes not only ecological risk pressure factors, but also social and economic risk pressure factors, namely, from single ecological risk assessment to the integrated risk assessment.
(3)With the dynamic evaluation of the implementing effect of the forest ecosystem management model, by the means of phase risk assessment and perennial monitoring and evaluation, offering the decision-making information for adaptability management is the key content of the participatory forest ecosystem management. The ecological risk assessment is a method to estimate the converse changes probability of the forest ecosystem and it is important in the forest ecosystem management. At the same time, the economic and social risk assessment is important too, because the cost is very high and sometimes there is no available technology to emphasize ecological risk management. The integrated risk assessment can improve the comprehensiveness and feasibility by including economic and social factors, becoming s an integration tool to comprehensive policy.
(4) The participatory forest ecosystem management is an important way to realize forest sustainable management. First, it can improve the participation efficiency of forest farmers. After making it clear to forest farmers how to participate in management, and the approach of participation, the participation enthusiasm of forest farmers becomes more modelized and standard. Second, it can achieve scale economy. It can unite the dispersive forest farmers to form a whole who apply for the independent cutting quota and the united loan, by making the project of forest ecosystem management. Not only can it realize moderate scale management, but also avoid forest farmers losing forest land. Third, it can coordinate the conflict of interests among stakeholders. It takes the desirability of all resource stakeholders into consideration, balances the benefits of various social strata, and coordinates the short-term benefits in long-term viewpoint. At last, it can achieve forest sustainable management, emphasizing the idea of forest ecosystem management to manage forests. It will quickly adjust the management measure and project in case the risk exceeds anticipation, by the means of aperiodic risk assessment and perennial monitoring and evaluation,
(5) The integrated risk of the participatory forest ecosystem management can predigest as the integrated risk of managing the farmers-forest complex ecosystem. The framework of the risk assessment index system is proposed, by analyzing the influence factors of the integrated risk of the farmers-forest complex ecosystem, and by considering the availability of data. It includes eight ecological risk indexes, seventeen economic risk indexes, and twelve social risk indexes. And some of the indexes are the same, because certain indexes influence not only ecological risk, but also economic and social risk.
(6)In the study, the ecological, economic and social risk expectation of the samples comes from the simulation of BP network, and the samples can be clustered into three types by the method of clustering analysis. In the first type, all of the ecological, economic and social risk is relatively low, and the integrated risk is the lowest. The characteristic of this type is that there isn’t only one tree specie planted in the forest land, and that every forest land has bigger area. It means the biodiversity of forest land is important for reducing the integrated risk. In the second type, the economic risk is relatively high, social and ecological risk is moderate. The characteristic of this type is that the forest management has more forest lands, which belongs to the type of large family management. The large family has strong status in the country, and leases more forest lands by land transfer and contract with large capital input. So they must face higher economic risk. In the third type, all of the ecological, economic and social risk is very high. The characteristic of this type is shortness of management term, singleness tree specie and lean forest land, thus the integrated risk is higher. The study indicates that, by the method of BP network model and clustering analysis, not only can it evaluate the single and integrated risk of the complex ecosystem, but it can also discover the main influencing factors of risk by analyzing the clustering results. It can provide scientific reference to adjusting the project of the participatory forest ecosystem management.
(7)The forest ecosystem management is not only about natural science, but it is also related to society, economy and culture. It needs society, economy and political power to sustain and drive forward, and it must be carried out in the market economy system by means of economy and administration. Therefore, it needs a corresponding guarantee system for successful implementation. The clear property right means to give community residents the right to manage forest, and it is the precondition of implementing participatory forest ecosystem management in collective forest area in Southern China. The participatory forest ecosystem management model has a relatively stable organization to manage forest resource, with the related interest group including forest farms participating in it, which has expeditious and flexible feedback mechanism. The organization offers a stable and efficient management platform for forest farms participating in management. Not only does it resolves the problem of the lack of participatory forestry maneuverability, but it also absorbs the ideological quintessence of the participatory forestry. It is an important organization form to realize forest sustainable management in collective forest area in Southern China.
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