呼包鄂城市群城市化遥感监测及其模拟预测
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摘要
城市群在区域和全球范围内的作用越来越重要,呼包鄂城市群作为西部地区新兴的城市群在起步阶段就表现出很强的竞争力,在西部地区城市化进程中的作用日趋明显。近年来呼包鄂地区城市地域拓展迅速,2008年GDP是1996年(352.50亿元)的近13.3倍,占全区GDP的60.28%,在内蒙古地区经济的发展中占据主导地位。但该地区的城市发展仍然以粗放式发展为主,在城市扩展中暴露出涉及资源和环境等的很多问题。研究呼包鄂地区城市用地特点,认清呼包鄂城市群的发展现状,正确模拟预测其城市用地扩展的方向和范围,对控制和引导城市建设用地合理扩展具有重要作用。
本文采用DMSP/OLS数据提取呼包鄂城市群1996-2008年的城市空间信息,在ARCGIS空间分析功能支持下,结合相应的统计数据,分析呼包鄂城市群的城市扩展用地的影响因素,探讨城市扩展的研究方法,在此基础上分析呼包鄂城市群在1996-2008年之间的扩张状况,确定了模拟预测方法,并预测2020年呼包鄂城市群的发展方向和扩展范围。主要结论如下:
(1)通过对1996年和2008年城市化信息的遥感监测,得出呼包鄂城市群城市化发展迅速,其中鄂尔多斯市的城市化发展速度远高于呼和浩特市和包头市,约是他们的4.5倍。
(2)基于Logistic回归模型,通过对1996年-2008年进行模拟训练,获得准确的模拟参数和周期,在此基础上展开对2020年呼包鄂城市群的模拟。模拟数据显示:呼包鄂城市群城市化范围进一步加大,全区城市用地面积增加了976.8Km2。面积增加最大的是呼和浩特市(477.8Km2),其次是鄂尔多斯市(398Km2),但是在增加比率上鄂尔多斯市仍然是最大(214%)。各地级市和旗县城市用在原有基础上扩展,并且沿路发展的趋势明显,其中呼和浩特市沿市区周边均有发展,在西侧沿铁路和公路向土默特左旗方向扩展;包头市主要向北发展,城市用地主要集中在现有城市范围北边缘和京藏高速公路之间;鄂尔多斯市城市化进程进一步加快,城市用地迅猛增加。
(3)呼包鄂城市群城市用地扩展手多方面因素的影响,其中社会经济状况直接影响城市用地的发展速度,道路对城市用地的影响主要体现在引导城市用地的形状和方向上,政府政策决定了城市用地占用其他土地的类型,同时也从侧面影响了城市用地的分布。
Urban Agglomerations on the regional and global play the increasingly important role, Hubaoe Urban Agglomerations as a new Urban Agglomerations in the western region in the initial stage group showed a strong competitive, and its affect has become more evident in the process of urbanization in the western region. In recent years, Hubaoe Urban Agglomerations is expanding by leaps and bounds, The GDP in 2008(35.25 billion yuan) nearly 13.3 times then 1996 and take about 60.28% in the whole region, its economic development in the Inner Mongolia region to dominate. But the region's urban development is still mainly depend on extensive production, in the course of expansion of the city exposed many problems involve in the resources and the environment. Researching the characteristics of the city land use in the region of Hubaoe, Recognize the development status of the Urban Agglomeration, to simulation and prediction the direction and scope of the Urban land use expansion correctly plays an important role on control and guide the expansion of urban land use rational.
In the current, it is more qualitative research on dynamics monitoring adopted the remote sensing technology to Hubaoe Urban Agglomerations, while is less research on quantitative expansion of its simulation and prediction. In this paper, for use DMSP / OLS data extract spatial information of Hubaoe Urban Agglomerations from 1996 to 2008 in support of ARCGIS, combining with relevant statistical data, to Analysis the expansion factors of urban land use and search the research method of urban expansion, on that basis analysis expansion state of Hubaoe Urban Agglomerations in the years between 1996 -2008 the to determine the prediction method, and predicted the development of the direction and the scope of Hubaoe Urban Agglomerations. The main conclusions as follows:
(1)We can obtain the rapid of urbanization by remote sensing monitoring of urbanization information of Hubaoe Urban Agglomerations in 1996 and 2008, which urbanization growth rate of Erdos much higher than the city of Hohhot and Baotou, about 4.5 times.
(2)Based on Logistic regression model, simulation training according to the image of the years 1996 -2008, access to accurate simulation parameters and the cycle, and then start to simulate the situations of Hubaoe Urban Agglomeration in 2010. Simulation data show: the scope of Hubaoe Urban Agglomeration for further increase, Region's urban land area increased by 976.8 Km2. The largest area of increase is Hohhot (477.8Km2), followed by Erdos (398Km2), but the largest increase rate is still the Erdos about 214%.Urban land use of cities and counties continue expand on the original foundation and trend along the road obvious, which is the development of Hohhot surround the urban periphery, in the west expansion to the direction of Tumotezuoqi along the railway and highway; In Baotou, the major expansion direction in the north, urban land use concentrated between the north edge of existing urban and the highway between Beijing and Tibet; The urbanization process further speed up and urban land use increased rapidly in Erdos.
(3)There are various factors impact expansion of Hubaoe Urban Agglomerations, the socio-economic conditions affect development speed of urban land use directly, the impact of roads on urban land use mainly in the shape and direction, government policy decisions the urban land occupied by other land types, but also effects the distribution of urban land in profile.
本文采用DMSP/OLS数据提取呼包鄂城市群1996-2008年的城市空间信息,在ARCGIS空间分析功能支持下,结合相应的统计数据,分析呼包鄂城市群的城市扩展用地的影响因素,探讨城市扩展的研究方法,在此基础上分析呼包鄂城市群在1996-2008年之间的扩张状况,确定了模拟预测方法,并预测2020年呼包鄂城市群的发展方向和扩展范围。主要结论如下:
(1)通过对1996年和2008年城市化信息的遥感监测,得出呼包鄂城市群城市化发展迅速,其中鄂尔多斯市的城市化发展速度远高于呼和浩特市和包头市,约是他们的4.5倍。
(2)基于Logistic回归模型,通过对1996年-2008年进行模拟训练,获得准确的模拟参数和周期,在此基础上展开对2020年呼包鄂城市群的模拟。模拟数据显示:呼包鄂城市群城市化范围进一步加大,全区城市用地面积增加了976.8Km2。面积增加最大的是呼和浩特市(477.8Km2),其次是鄂尔多斯市(398Km2),但是在增加比率上鄂尔多斯市仍然是最大(214%)。各地级市和旗县城市用在原有基础上扩展,并且沿路发展的趋势明显,其中呼和浩特市沿市区周边均有发展,在西侧沿铁路和公路向土默特左旗方向扩展;包头市主要向北发展,城市用地主要集中在现有城市范围北边缘和京藏高速公路之间;鄂尔多斯市城市化进程进一步加快,城市用地迅猛增加。
(3)呼包鄂城市群城市用地扩展手多方面因素的影响,其中社会经济状况直接影响城市用地的发展速度,道路对城市用地的影响主要体现在引导城市用地的形状和方向上,政府政策决定了城市用地占用其他土地的类型,同时也从侧面影响了城市用地的分布。
Urban Agglomerations on the regional and global play the increasingly important role, Hubaoe Urban Agglomerations as a new Urban Agglomerations in the western region in the initial stage group showed a strong competitive, and its affect has become more evident in the process of urbanization in the western region. In recent years, Hubaoe Urban Agglomerations is expanding by leaps and bounds, The GDP in 2008(35.25 billion yuan) nearly 13.3 times then 1996 and take about 60.28% in the whole region, its economic development in the Inner Mongolia region to dominate. But the region's urban development is still mainly depend on extensive production, in the course of expansion of the city exposed many problems involve in the resources and the environment. Researching the characteristics of the city land use in the region of Hubaoe, Recognize the development status of the Urban Agglomeration, to simulation and prediction the direction and scope of the Urban land use expansion correctly plays an important role on control and guide the expansion of urban land use rational.
In the current, it is more qualitative research on dynamics monitoring adopted the remote sensing technology to Hubaoe Urban Agglomerations, while is less research on quantitative expansion of its simulation and prediction. In this paper, for use DMSP / OLS data extract spatial information of Hubaoe Urban Agglomerations from 1996 to 2008 in support of ARCGIS, combining with relevant statistical data, to Analysis the expansion factors of urban land use and search the research method of urban expansion, on that basis analysis expansion state of Hubaoe Urban Agglomerations in the years between 1996 -2008 the to determine the prediction method, and predicted the development of the direction and the scope of Hubaoe Urban Agglomerations. The main conclusions as follows:
(1)We can obtain the rapid of urbanization by remote sensing monitoring of urbanization information of Hubaoe Urban Agglomerations in 1996 and 2008, which urbanization growth rate of Erdos much higher than the city of Hohhot and Baotou, about 4.5 times.
(2)Based on Logistic regression model, simulation training according to the image of the years 1996 -2008, access to accurate simulation parameters and the cycle, and then start to simulate the situations of Hubaoe Urban Agglomeration in 2010. Simulation data show: the scope of Hubaoe Urban Agglomeration for further increase, Region's urban land area increased by 976.8 Km2. The largest area of increase is Hohhot (477.8Km2), followed by Erdos (398Km2), but the largest increase rate is still the Erdos about 214%.Urban land use of cities and counties continue expand on the original foundation and trend along the road obvious, which is the development of Hohhot surround the urban periphery, in the west expansion to the direction of Tumotezuoqi along the railway and highway; In Baotou, the major expansion direction in the north, urban land use concentrated between the north edge of existing urban and the highway between Beijing and Tibet; The urbanization process further speed up and urban land use increased rapidly in Erdos.
(3)There are various factors impact expansion of Hubaoe Urban Agglomerations, the socio-economic conditions affect development speed of urban land use directly, the impact of roads on urban land use mainly in the shape and direction, government policy decisions the urban land occupied by other land types, but also effects the distribution of urban land in profile.
引文
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[2]《中华人民共和国国民经济和社会发展第十一个五年规划纲要》来源:http://news.xinhuanet.com/misc/2006-03/16
[3]许学强,周一星,宁越敏.城市地理学[M].北京:高等教育出版社,1997.
[4]姚士谋,陈振光,朱英明.中国城市群[M].中国科学技术大学出版社.
[5]叶裕民,中国城市化之路—经济支持与制度创新,商务印书馆,2001
[6]朱喜钢,城市空间集中与分散论,中国建筑工业出版社,2002
[7]张京祥,城镇群体空间组合,东南大学出版社,2000
[8]阮仪三主编,城市建设与规划基础理论,天津科学技术出版社,1992
[9]艾萨德(Isard,Walter).区域学[M].沈阳.辽宁科学技术出版社,1992.
[10]史培军,陈晋,潘耀忠.深圳市土地利用变化机制分析[J].地理学报,2000,55(2):151-160.
[11][美]保罗·贝罗克著.城市与经济发展[M].江西人民出版社,1991.
[12]孟祥林.城市化进程研究[J].科学出版社,2000
[13]马晓东,基于ESDA的城市化空间格局与过程比较研究[M].东南大学出版社
[14]芒福德,城市发展史:起源演变和前景,中国建筑工业出版社,1999
[15]胡俊,中国城市:模式与演进,中国建筑工业出版社,1995
[16]杨尚,王发曾.中原城市群城镇体系空间结构分形特征及优化启示[J].河南科学,2007,25(5):1-4.
[17]史晓云,城市化加速期城市用地规模扩展研究以南京市为例[M].南京农业大学,2004
[18]陈述彭,地球科学的复杂性与系统性.地理科学.1991
[19]黄杏元,马劲松,汤勤.地理信息系统概论.高等教育出版社,2003
[20]谢惠民,非线性科学丛书:复杂性与动力系统.上海科技教育出版社,1994
[21]仪垂祥,非线性科学及其在地学中的应用.北京:气象出版社,1995
[22]周成虎,孙战利,谢一春.地理元胞自动机研究[M].北京:科学出版社,1999
[23]李才伟.自组织现象的元胞自动机模拟与图示[J].计算机辅助设计与图形学学报,1997,9(6):532-537
[24]黎夏,叶嘉安等.地理模拟系统:元宝自动机与多智能体[M].科学出版社2008
[25]黎夏,叶嘉安.约束性单元自动演化C模型及可持续城市发展形态的模拟.地理学报.1999
[26]黎夏,叶嘉安,刘小平.地理模拟系统在城市规划中的应用.城市规划.2006
[27]薛领.基于主体的城市空间演化模拟研究[J].2002
[28]杨开忠,沈体雁.试论地理信息科学.地理研究.1999
[29]孟飞.上海土地利用覆被变化过程、机制与环境效应[D],博士学位论文,上海:华东师范大学.2006:26-47.
[30]贾华,祝国瑞等.土地利用变化研究中的细胞自动机与灰色局势决策[J].武汉测绘科技大学学报,1998,24(2):166-170
[31]王红,闾国年.城市细胞自动机模型研究的回顾与展望[J].经济地理,2003
[32]卓莉,史培军,陈晋等.20世纪90年代中国城市时空变化特征:基于灯光指数CNLI方法的探讨[J].地理学报,2003,58(6):893-902.
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