中国上市公司盈余达到或超过分析师盈利预测研究
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摘要
匕市公司盈余达到或超过分析师盈利预测是指上市公司存在正向盈余意外。随着20世纪90年代分析师盈利预测成为上市公司最重要的盈余阂值标准,避免负向盈余意外现象在美国资本市场日益显著。除了上市公司业绩较好的情况,上市公司盈余达到或超过分析师盈利预测主要有上市公司MBE以及分析师迎合两个原因。
美国早期文献主要从上市公司的角度研究上市公司通过盈余管理或预期管理实现MBE,从而使公司盈余达到或超过分析师盈利预测。而近年来的大量文献发现,分析师为与上市公司高管维持良好关系,以便获得信息,会改变盈利预测模式,这也导致了上市公司盈余达到或超过分析师盈利预测。
随着我国资本市场的发展,证券分析师在资本市场上的影响力也越来越大,但同时考虑到我国资本市场与国外有着不同的制度背景。因此,我国资本市场上是否存在与发达资本市场相似的避免负向盈余意外现象就成为一个值得探讨的问题。为探究我国资本市场上市公司盈余达到或超过分析师盈利预测问题,本文开展了以下研究工作。
本文在梳理国外上市公司盈余达到或超过分析师盈利预测的理论原因的基础上,就我国避免负向盈余意外的存在性,幅度与频率进行了研究,在发现避免负向盈余意外存在的前提下探究上市公司盈余达到或超过分析师盈利预测的市场反应；此外,本文还同时从上市公司和分析师两个角度,对我国上市公司盈余达到或超过分析师盈利预测的实现方式以及实现方式产生的结果进行了研究。
研究发现,我国资本市场存在与国外类似的避免负向盈余意外现象,但避免负向盈余意外的频率并不高,而且鉴于约束成本的存在,避免负向盈余意外的幅度也不大。研究还发现,在短窗口内,盈余达到或超过分析师盈利预测的上市公司股价会上升,但发生在盈余公告前几天,而盈余未达到或超过分析师盈利预测的上市公司股价下跌,这一定程度上说明我国投资者会以分析师盈利预测作为市场预期。
此外,在我国上市公司盈余达到或超过分析师盈利预测的原因方面,研究发现,我国上市公司没有通过盈余管理实现MBE,我国上市公司盈余达到或超过分机师盈利预测的主要原因是公司有较好的业绩和分析师盈利预测低于盈利预测预期值两个,且上市公司盈余达到或超过分析师盈利预测一定程度上能传达公司业绩较好的信号。在我国的制度背景下,分析师盈利预测低于盈利预测预期值的主要原因是分析师为与上市公司高管建立或维持良好关系以便获得私有信息,迎合上市公司高管造成的,而迎合上市公司高管的分析师也因为获得了更多信息盈利预测更准确,因此我国上市公司盈余达到或超过分析师盈利预测更加符合资源依赖理论。
本文一定程度上验证了上市公司与分析师之间的利益冲突,并提出了促进我国资本市场规范发展的政策建议：提高分析师的独立性,增加公平信息披露,提高违背公平披露规则的违约成本等。
The listed companies'earnings meeting or exceeding analysts'earning forecast refers to the listed company having positive earnings surprise. As the analysts earning forecast become the most important threshold for the listed companies during the 1990s, the phenomenon of avoiding negative earnings surprise become more and more significant in the American capital market. Besides the performance of the listed companies 'better performance, the listed companies MBE and the analysts' catering are also the other two mainly reasons for the listed companies' earnings meeting or exceeding analysts' earning forecast.
The early literatures of American studying the listed companies to realize MBE through earnings management or expectation management, which made the companies' earnings meet or exceed analysts' earning forecast, were mainly from the perspective of listed company. But most of recent literatures documented that, in order to maintain a good relationship with the executives of listed Companies to get more information, the analysts would change their earning forecast pattern, which would also make the companies' earnings meet or exceed analysts'earning forecast.
With the development of China's capital market, the impact of the analysts is also growing. Considering the different system background of domestic and overseas' market, whether there are avoiding the negative earnings surprises in China which is similar to the developed capital market or not, become a worthy of study. Thus, in order to explore the companies'earnings meet or exceed analysts'earning forecast in the domestic market, we carry out the following research.
Based on the arrangement of theoretical reasons for the overseas' listed companies' earnings meeting or exceeding analysts'earning forecast, this article had explored the existence, amplitude, frequency of the listed companies'earnings meeting or exceeding analysts' earning forecast, and explored the capital market respond under the premise of avoiding negative earnings surprise. In addition, this article had also taken a research on the way to achieve and the finally result of china's listed companies' earnings meeting or exceeding analysts' earning forecast from the perspectives of both the listed companies'and analysts.
Finally, this paper found that the phenomenon of avoiding the negative earnings surprises indeed existed in China, which is similar to the foreign market, but the frequency is not high, and the amplitude is not too much because of the existence of the constraint costs. The study also found that, in short window, the stock price of (?)isted companies whose earnings meeting or exceeding analysts'earning forecast would increase, while the other whose earnings not would decline. This explained why the investors in China would make their market expectation based on earning forecasts of analysts to some extent.
In addition, on the respect of the reason causing China's listed companies' earnings reaching or exceeding analysts'earning forecast, this article did not found China's listed companies would use the earnings management method to realize MBE, the mainly reasons were the listed companies had better performance and the analysts' carning forecast were below the earning forecast expectation. Meeting or exceeding analysts'earning forecast could also convey a single of better performance of company to some extent. The mainly reason causing the analysts'earning forecast lower than the expected earnings forecast is the analysts want to maintain a good relationship with the executives of listed companies to get private information of the companies, and the analysts who catering for the demands of managers of public companies usually made much more accurate predictions because of more information they could get. Thus, the listed companies meeting or exceeding analyst' (?)rning forecast in China are more in line with the resource dependence theory.
This paper verified the conflict of interest between listed companies and the analysts, and gave some suggestions to promote the development of China's capital market, which are enhancing the independence of analysts, increasing fair information disclosure and raising the penalty costs of violation of fair information disclosure, and so on.
美国早期文献主要从上市公司的角度研究上市公司通过盈余管理或预期管理实现MBE,从而使公司盈余达到或超过分析师盈利预测。而近年来的大量文献发现,分析师为与上市公司高管维持良好关系,以便获得信息,会改变盈利预测模式,这也导致了上市公司盈余达到或超过分析师盈利预测。
随着我国资本市场的发展,证券分析师在资本市场上的影响力也越来越大,但同时考虑到我国资本市场与国外有着不同的制度背景。因此,我国资本市场上是否存在与发达资本市场相似的避免负向盈余意外现象就成为一个值得探讨的问题。为探究我国资本市场上市公司盈余达到或超过分析师盈利预测问题,本文开展了以下研究工作。
本文在梳理国外上市公司盈余达到或超过分析师盈利预测的理论原因的基础上,就我国避免负向盈余意外的存在性,幅度与频率进行了研究,在发现避免负向盈余意外存在的前提下探究上市公司盈余达到或超过分析师盈利预测的市场反应；此外,本文还同时从上市公司和分析师两个角度,对我国上市公司盈余达到或超过分析师盈利预测的实现方式以及实现方式产生的结果进行了研究。
研究发现,我国资本市场存在与国外类似的避免负向盈余意外现象,但避免负向盈余意外的频率并不高,而且鉴于约束成本的存在,避免负向盈余意外的幅度也不大。研究还发现,在短窗口内,盈余达到或超过分析师盈利预测的上市公司股价会上升,但发生在盈余公告前几天,而盈余未达到或超过分析师盈利预测的上市公司股价下跌,这一定程度上说明我国投资者会以分析师盈利预测作为市场预期。
此外,在我国上市公司盈余达到或超过分析师盈利预测的原因方面,研究发现,我国上市公司没有通过盈余管理实现MBE,我国上市公司盈余达到或超过分机师盈利预测的主要原因是公司有较好的业绩和分析师盈利预测低于盈利预测预期值两个,且上市公司盈余达到或超过分析师盈利预测一定程度上能传达公司业绩较好的信号。在我国的制度背景下,分析师盈利预测低于盈利预测预期值的主要原因是分析师为与上市公司高管建立或维持良好关系以便获得私有信息,迎合上市公司高管造成的,而迎合上市公司高管的分析师也因为获得了更多信息盈利预测更准确,因此我国上市公司盈余达到或超过分析师盈利预测更加符合资源依赖理论。
本文一定程度上验证了上市公司与分析师之间的利益冲突,并提出了促进我国资本市场规范发展的政策建议：提高分析师的独立性,增加公平信息披露,提高违背公平披露规则的违约成本等。
The listed companies'earnings meeting or exceeding analysts'earning forecast refers to the listed company having positive earnings surprise. As the analysts earning forecast become the most important threshold for the listed companies during the 1990s, the phenomenon of avoiding negative earnings surprise become more and more significant in the American capital market. Besides the performance of the listed companies 'better performance, the listed companies MBE and the analysts' catering are also the other two mainly reasons for the listed companies' earnings meeting or exceeding analysts' earning forecast.
The early literatures of American studying the listed companies to realize MBE through earnings management or expectation management, which made the companies' earnings meet or exceed analysts' earning forecast, were mainly from the perspective of listed company. But most of recent literatures documented that, in order to maintain a good relationship with the executives of listed Companies to get more information, the analysts would change their earning forecast pattern, which would also make the companies' earnings meet or exceed analysts'earning forecast.
With the development of China's capital market, the impact of the analysts is also growing. Considering the different system background of domestic and overseas' market, whether there are avoiding the negative earnings surprises in China which is similar to the developed capital market or not, become a worthy of study. Thus, in order to explore the companies'earnings meet or exceed analysts'earning forecast in the domestic market, we carry out the following research.
Based on the arrangement of theoretical reasons for the overseas' listed companies' earnings meeting or exceeding analysts'earning forecast, this article had explored the existence, amplitude, frequency of the listed companies'earnings meeting or exceeding analysts' earning forecast, and explored the capital market respond under the premise of avoiding negative earnings surprise. In addition, this article had also taken a research on the way to achieve and the finally result of china's listed companies' earnings meeting or exceeding analysts' earning forecast from the perspectives of both the listed companies'and analysts.
Finally, this paper found that the phenomenon of avoiding the negative earnings surprises indeed existed in China, which is similar to the foreign market, but the frequency is not high, and the amplitude is not too much because of the existence of the constraint costs. The study also found that, in short window, the stock price of (?)isted companies whose earnings meeting or exceeding analysts'earning forecast would increase, while the other whose earnings not would decline. This explained why the investors in China would make their market expectation based on earning forecasts of analysts to some extent.
In addition, on the respect of the reason causing China's listed companies' earnings reaching or exceeding analysts'earning forecast, this article did not found China's listed companies would use the earnings management method to realize MBE, the mainly reasons were the listed companies had better performance and the analysts' carning forecast were below the earning forecast expectation. Meeting or exceeding analysts'earning forecast could also convey a single of better performance of company to some extent. The mainly reason causing the analysts'earning forecast lower than the expected earnings forecast is the analysts want to maintain a good relationship with the executives of listed companies to get private information of the companies, and the analysts who catering for the demands of managers of public companies usually made much more accurate predictions because of more information they could get. Thus, the listed companies meeting or exceeding analyst' (?)rning forecast in China are more in line with the resource dependence theory.
This paper verified the conflict of interest between listed companies and the analysts, and gave some suggestions to promote the development of China's capital market, which are enhancing the independence of analysts, increasing fair information disclosure and raising the penalty costs of violation of fair information disclosure, and so on.
引文
1美国财务舞弊症结探究,黄世忠、陈建明,会计研究2002·10：P22-33
2 AMY P.HUTTON, Determinants of Managerial Earnings Guidance Prior to Regulation Fair Disclosure and Bias in analysts' Earnings Forecast, Contemporary Accounting Research Vol.22 No.4(Winter 2005)pp.867-914
3 http://money.163.com/10/0412/11/642M2AML002524TE.html,华夏时报发布《2009证券分析师行业白皮书》,2010-04-12
4 http://finance.people.com.cn/GB/8215/58145/58150/4821394.html,深交所首次公开谴责选择性信息披露行为,来源：《中国证券报》
5 http://cfo.icxo.com/htmlnews/2005/10/11/684811.htm,信息披露岂能厚此薄彼,2005-10-11,来源：证券时报
6 http://paper.wenweipo.com/2010/03/30/F11003300004.htm,选择性披露盈利新世界曾遭谴责
7证券分析师利益冲突影响投资者利益吗?一个经验研究评述,张雪兰、何德旭,金融研究2008.7：P172
8美国财务舞弊症结探究,黄世忠、陈建明,会计研究2002·10,P22-33
9 Dawn A. Matsumoto, Management's Incentives to Avoid Negative Earnings Surprises[J], The Accounting Review,2002,77(3):483-514
10组织的外部控制——对组织资源依赖的分析,杰弗里·菲佛与杰勒尔德·R·萨兰基克,2006,东方出版社,p3
11组织的外部控制——对组织资源依赖的分析,杰弗里·菲佛与杰勒尔德·R·萨兰基克,2006,东方出版社,p51
12安达信：事件与反思,陈汉文,暨南大学出版社,P277
13 Hli Bartov, Dan Givoly, Carla Hayn, June 2002, The rewards to meeting or beating earnings expectations, Journal of Accounting and Economics, Volume 33, Issue 2:173-204.
14白晓宇、钟震、宋常,分析师盈利预测之于股价的影响研究,审计研究,2007.1,P91
15证券分析师选股的投资价值,王啸,2009
16中外证券市场中小投资者保护机制比较,朱才斌,北京物资学院经济学院
17 http://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/y/20080813/08205194241.shtml,券商研究员众生相：自费请董秘吃饭套消息,2008年08月13日08：20新京报
18证券分析师制度研究,刘志皎,2007,西南政法大学硕士学位论文,P21
192002年萨班斯一奥克斯利法案》(中英对照本),北京：法律出版社,2004年版,P177
20《2002年萨班斯一奥克斯利法案》(中英对照本),北京：法律出版社,2004年版,P222
21证券分析师制度研究,刘志皎,2007,西南政法大学硕士学位论文,P26
22《2002年萨班斯一奥克斯利法案》(中英对照本),北京：法律出版社,2004年版,P182
23陈义真：“证券市场信息披露制度若干问题之探析”,《行政与法》,2004年第2期,P1 85
25证券分析师制度研究,刘志皎,2007,西南政法大学硕士学位论文,P24
26公平披露对证券市场信息环境影响研究,吴玮琳,2010,暨南大学硕士学位论文,P21
27公平披露对证券市场信息环境影响研究,吴玮琳,2010,暨南大学硕士学位论文,P28
28公平信息披露：比较与借鉴,靳光辉,2008年第4期,兰州商学院学报,P103
32盈余的预期管理与盈余管理,魏明海,审计研究：2005年第3期,P18
33盈余的预期管理与盈余管理,魏明海,审计研究：2005年第3期,P18
34 Matsumoto, D.A., Management's Incentives to Avoid Negative Earnings Surprises. The Accounting Review, 2002.77(3):p.483-514.
35此外,文章还参照Matsumoto (2002)在回归模型中加入公司是否亏损变量表示价值相关性,盈利公司价值相关性更高,预期盈利越有可能达到或超过分析师盈利预测；加入公司规模控制变量,用总资产对数表小,预期规模越大,公司MBE可能性增加,结果发现两变量对因变量没有显著影响,且不改变其他变量显著性
36机构投资者的行为失范：表现、成因与矫正,宫玉松,东岳论从,2010年6月：P118
37 http://finance.ifeng.com/stock/zjdp/20100925/2650856.shtml,鲁桂华,分析师与机构的串通：理性分析与经验证据,2010年09月25日,第一财经日报
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39 BIN KE, YONG YU.The Effect of Issuing Biased Earnings Forecasts on Analysts' Access to Management and Survival[J],Journal of Accounting Research,2006,44(5):965-999
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35此外,文章还参照Matsumoto (2002)在回归模型中加入公司是否亏损变量表示价值相关性,盈利公司价值相关性更高,预期盈利越有可能达到或超过分析师盈利预测；加入公司规模控制变量,用总资产对数表小,预期规模越大,公司MBE可能性增加,结果发现两变量对因变量没有显著影响,且不改变其他变量显著性
36机构投资者的行为失范：表现、成因与矫正,宫玉松,东岳论从,2010年6月：P118
37 http://finance.ifeng.com/stock/zjdp/20100925/2650856.shtml,鲁桂华,分析师与机构的串通：理性分析与经验证据,2010年09月25日,第一财经日报
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