北极涛动/北半球环状模指数异常事件成因的个例分析
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摘要
北半球环状模(Northern Hemisphere Annular Mode,NAM)是冬季北半球热带外地区行星尺度大气环流变率的首要模态,它及三个活动中心的形成可以利用波流相互作用原理得到很好的解释:对流层内的NAM变化是由于天气尺度波与纬向流相互作用产生的,时间尺度为10~20天,活动中心主要位于北大西洋和北太平洋;而平流层内的NAM变化是由于准定常行星波和纬向流相互作用产生的,时间尺度为30~60天,活动中心为平流层极涡。因而可以将NAM指数异常原因归结为NAM的三个活动中心处的波流相互作用动力学过程,它们分别对应于对流层中北大西洋上的天气尺度波破碎(或北大西洋涛动)、北太平洋急流活动(或太平洋北美型遥相关)以及上传准定常行星波与平流层极涡相互作用(E-P通量)中的异常情况。三个中心上各自的波流相互作用共同导致NAM指数出现异常。
根据前人的研究结果,本论文针对我国南方发生雪灾的2007~2008年冬季和我国北方地区发生雪灾的2009~2010年冬季这两个冬季期间NAM指数的异常变化进行诊断分析,得到以下结论:
(1)2007~2008年冬季,上游北太平洋地区不断有波动快速东传,在北大西洋地区既有气旋式天气尺度波破碎,又有反气旋式波破碎,这使得NAM指数在10~20天尺度上剧烈起伏;在平流层极涡,30~60天带通滤波后的NAM指数和北极平流层极涡指数的变化趋势基本一致,上传进入平流层的准定常行星波较弱,极涡自2007年12月增强并稳定维持。在冬季平均尺度上,2007~2008年冬季赤道太平洋地区出现La Nina事件,北太平洋东北部、北美地区到北大西洋西部呈现弱的PNA负位相分布,北太平洋急流北移,这使得上传的准定常行星波发生变化,冬季平均的极涡偏强,因而NAM指数的冬季平均值为正值。
(2)2009~2010年冬季,在北大西洋只有气旋式波破碎,它与局地北大西洋波动紧密联系,原地生消,10~20天带通滤波的NAM指数的一个周期大致对应有一次气旋式天气尺度波破碎过程;在平流层极涡,30~60天带通滤波后的NAM指数和北极平流层极涡指数的变化趋势基本一致,带通滤波的E-P通量散度与纬向风的时间导数也具有大致相同的变化,上传的准定常行星波较强,极涡自2010年1月增强后在2月迅速减弱。在冬季平均尺度上,2009~2010年冬季赤道太平洋地区出现El Ni?o事件,北太平洋东北部、北美地区到大西洋西部为一种强的PNA正位相分布,北太平洋急流南移,这使得上传的准定常行星波发生变化,冬季平均的极涡很弱,因而NAM指数的冬季平均值为负值,且绝对值较大。
The Northern Hemisphere Annular Mode (NAM), which is also referred to as the Arctic Oscillation (AO), is the leading mode of wintertime variability of sea level pressure over the extropical region of the Northern Hemisphere. The NAM/AO owes its existence entirely to internal atmospheric dynamics, and the wave-flow interaction theory can explain the formations of the NAM/AO and its three regional centers of action. In the troposphere the NAM/AO fluctuates on timescale of 10~20 days and is associated with the interaction of the baroclinic wave and zonal flow, while the fluctuation of the timescale of 30~60 days is associated with the interaction of the quasi-stationary planetary wave and zonal flow in the stratosphere. The tropospheric centers of wave-flow interaction are situated at two jets over the Atlantic and the Pacific and represented by the NAO and the PNA. Another stratospheric center is polar vortex that is affected by upwards propagating quasi-stationary waves. The local wave-flow interactions at these three intensive centers together can explain variations of the NAM/AO index to a large extent.
According to the results of predecessor research, this paper focused on analysing the abnormal NAM/AO indices during the winters of 2007~2008 and 2009~2010, when exceptionally serious snow calamities occurred in the south and north part of China respectively. The conclusions are as follows:
(1) During the period of 2007-2008 winter, there are both anticyclonic and cyclonic synoptic wave breakings in the North Atlantic. Synoptic-scale waves develop from North America and migrate across the North Atlantic very fast. As a result, there are anomalous vibrations of the NAM/AO index on the timescale of 10~20 days. We highlight a positive-phase event whose zero-lag day is 24~(th) Jan 2008. On the other hand, the NAM/AO index on the timescale of 30~60 days is consistent with the polar vortex index of the same timescale in the stratosphere. And the upward and poleward refraction of planetary waves into the stratosphere over high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere is weak so that the stratospheric polar vortex begins to strengthen in December 2007 and stay strong in Jan and Feb 2008. In the 2007-2008 winter, La Ni?a occurs in the tropical Pacific, leading to a negative PNA over the North Pacific Ocean and the North American continent, and the Pacific jet exhibiting a pronounced north-shift. This cause the polar waveguide to be weakened, thus, the polar vortex is strong. Consequently, the winter mean NAM/AO index is positive.
(2) During the period of 2009-2010 winter, cyclonic synoptic wave breaking is prominent in the North Atlantic and the flow characteristics are strikingly similar to the blocks, which cause the NAM/AO index to stay negative during the winter. We highlight a negative-phase event whose zero-lag day is 3~(rd) Jan 2010. On the other hand, the NAM/AO index on the timescale of 30~60 days is consistent with the polar vortex index of the same timescale in the stratosphere. And the upward and poleward refraction of planetary waves into the stratosphere over high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere is strong so that the stratospheric polar vortex is weaker. In the 2009-2010 winter, El Ni?o occurs in the tropical Pacific, leading to a negative PNA over the North Pacific Ocean and the North American continent, and the Pacific jet exhibiting a pronounced south-shift. This cause the polar waveguide to be strengthened, thus, the polar vortex is very weak. Consequently, the winter mean NAM/AO index is negative, whose absolute value is great.
根据前人的研究结果,本论文针对我国南方发生雪灾的2007~2008年冬季和我国北方地区发生雪灾的2009~2010年冬季这两个冬季期间NAM指数的异常变化进行诊断分析,得到以下结论:
(1)2007~2008年冬季,上游北太平洋地区不断有波动快速东传,在北大西洋地区既有气旋式天气尺度波破碎,又有反气旋式波破碎,这使得NAM指数在10~20天尺度上剧烈起伏;在平流层极涡,30~60天带通滤波后的NAM指数和北极平流层极涡指数的变化趋势基本一致,上传进入平流层的准定常行星波较弱,极涡自2007年12月增强并稳定维持。在冬季平均尺度上,2007~2008年冬季赤道太平洋地区出现La Nina事件,北太平洋东北部、北美地区到北大西洋西部呈现弱的PNA负位相分布,北太平洋急流北移,这使得上传的准定常行星波发生变化,冬季平均的极涡偏强,因而NAM指数的冬季平均值为正值。
(2)2009~2010年冬季,在北大西洋只有气旋式波破碎,它与局地北大西洋波动紧密联系,原地生消,10~20天带通滤波的NAM指数的一个周期大致对应有一次气旋式天气尺度波破碎过程;在平流层极涡,30~60天带通滤波后的NAM指数和北极平流层极涡指数的变化趋势基本一致,带通滤波的E-P通量散度与纬向风的时间导数也具有大致相同的变化,上传的准定常行星波较强,极涡自2010年1月增强后在2月迅速减弱。在冬季平均尺度上,2009~2010年冬季赤道太平洋地区出现El Ni?o事件,北太平洋东北部、北美地区到大西洋西部为一种强的PNA正位相分布,北太平洋急流南移,这使得上传的准定常行星波发生变化,冬季平均的极涡很弱,因而NAM指数的冬季平均值为负值,且绝对值较大。
The Northern Hemisphere Annular Mode (NAM), which is also referred to as the Arctic Oscillation (AO), is the leading mode of wintertime variability of sea level pressure over the extropical region of the Northern Hemisphere. The NAM/AO owes its existence entirely to internal atmospheric dynamics, and the wave-flow interaction theory can explain the formations of the NAM/AO and its three regional centers of action. In the troposphere the NAM/AO fluctuates on timescale of 10~20 days and is associated with the interaction of the baroclinic wave and zonal flow, while the fluctuation of the timescale of 30~60 days is associated with the interaction of the quasi-stationary planetary wave and zonal flow in the stratosphere. The tropospheric centers of wave-flow interaction are situated at two jets over the Atlantic and the Pacific and represented by the NAO and the PNA. Another stratospheric center is polar vortex that is affected by upwards propagating quasi-stationary waves. The local wave-flow interactions at these three intensive centers together can explain variations of the NAM/AO index to a large extent.
According to the results of predecessor research, this paper focused on analysing the abnormal NAM/AO indices during the winters of 2007~2008 and 2009~2010, when exceptionally serious snow calamities occurred in the south and north part of China respectively. The conclusions are as follows:
(1) During the period of 2007-2008 winter, there are both anticyclonic and cyclonic synoptic wave breakings in the North Atlantic. Synoptic-scale waves develop from North America and migrate across the North Atlantic very fast. As a result, there are anomalous vibrations of the NAM/AO index on the timescale of 10~20 days. We highlight a positive-phase event whose zero-lag day is 24~(th) Jan 2008. On the other hand, the NAM/AO index on the timescale of 30~60 days is consistent with the polar vortex index of the same timescale in the stratosphere. And the upward and poleward refraction of planetary waves into the stratosphere over high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere is weak so that the stratospheric polar vortex begins to strengthen in December 2007 and stay strong in Jan and Feb 2008. In the 2007-2008 winter, La Ni?a occurs in the tropical Pacific, leading to a negative PNA over the North Pacific Ocean and the North American continent, and the Pacific jet exhibiting a pronounced north-shift. This cause the polar waveguide to be weakened, thus, the polar vortex is strong. Consequently, the winter mean NAM/AO index is positive.
(2) During the period of 2009-2010 winter, cyclonic synoptic wave breaking is prominent in the North Atlantic and the flow characteristics are strikingly similar to the blocks, which cause the NAM/AO index to stay negative during the winter. We highlight a negative-phase event whose zero-lag day is 3~(rd) Jan 2010. On the other hand, the NAM/AO index on the timescale of 30~60 days is consistent with the polar vortex index of the same timescale in the stratosphere. And the upward and poleward refraction of planetary waves into the stratosphere over high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere is strong so that the stratospheric polar vortex is weaker. In the 2009-2010 winter, El Ni?o occurs in the tropical Pacific, leading to a negative PNA over the North Pacific Ocean and the North American continent, and the Pacific jet exhibiting a pronounced south-shift. This cause the polar waveguide to be strengthened, thus, the polar vortex is very weak. Consequently, the winter mean NAM/AO index is negative, whose absolute value is great.
引文
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[2] Thompson D W J, Lee S and Baldwin M P. Atmospheric Processes Governing the Northern Hemisphere Annular Mode/North Atlantic Oscillation[J]. Geophysical monograph, 2003, 134: 81-112
[3] Wallace J M. On the Arctic and Antarctic Oscillation. NCAR Summer Colloquium Lecture Notes, 2000
[4] Wallace J M and Thompson D W J. The Pacific Center of Action of the Northern Hemisphere Annular Mode: Real or Artifact[J]? Journal of Climate, 2002,15(14): 1987-1991
[5] Limpasuvan V and Hartmann D L. Eddies and the annular modes of climate variability[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 1999, 26(20): 3133-3136
[6] Baldwin M P and Dunkerton T J. Stratospheric harbingers of anomalous weather regimes[J]. Science, 2001, 294(5542): 581-584.
[7] Wallace J M. North Atlantic Oscillation / Annular Mode: Two Paradigms - One Phenomenon[J]. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 2000, 126 (564): 791-805
[8] Cutlip K. Northern influence[J]. Weatherwise, 2000, 53(2): 10-11
[9] Rothrock D A, Yu Y and Maykut G A. Thinning of the Arctic Sea-Ice Cover[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 1999, 26(23): 3469-3472
[10] Rigor I G, Colony R L and Martin S. Variations in Surface Air Temperature Observations in the Arctic, 1979-97[J]. Journal of Climate, 2000, 13(5): 896-914
[11]龚道溢,王绍武.近百年北极涛动对中国冬季气候的影响[J].地理学报, 2003, 58(4): 559-568
[12]所玲玲,黄嘉佑,谭本馗.北极涛动对我国冬季同期极端气温的影响研究[J].热带气象学报, 2008, 24(2): 163-168
[13]龚道溢,朱锦红,王绍武.长江流域夏季降水与前期北极涛动的显著相关[J].科学通报, 2002, 47(7): 546-549
[14]宋连春,俞亚勋,孙旭映,等.北极涛动与我国北方强沙尘暴的关系[J].高原气象, 2004, 23(6): 835-839
[15]琚建华,吕俊梅,任菊章.北极涛动年代际变化对华北地区干旱化的影响[J].高原气象, 2006, 25(1): 74-81
[16] Lorenz D J and Hartmann D L. Eddy-zonal flow feedback in the Southern Hemisphere[J]. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 2000, 58(21): 3312-3327
[17] DeWeaver E and Nigam S. Do Stationary Waves Drive the Zonal-Mean Jet Anomalies of the Northern Winter[J]? Journal of Climate, 2000, 13(13): 2160-2176
[18] Lorenz E N. Seasonal and irregular variations of the Northern Hemisphere sealevel pressure profile[J]. Journal of Meteorology, 1951, 8(1): 52-59
[19] Gates W L. A statistical analysis of Northern Hemisphere sea-level pressure patterns accompanying high and low polar pressure deficit. Bachelor's thesis, M.I.T., Cambridge, MA. 1950
[20] Thorncroft C D, Hoskins B J and McIntyre M E. Two paradigms of baroclinic wave life-cycle behavior[J]. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 1993, 119(509): 17-55
[21] Benedict J J, Lee S and Feldstein S B. Synoptic view of the North Atlantic Oscillation[J]. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 2004, 61(2):121-144
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