台风暴雨的数值模拟与资料同化研究
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摘要
本文利用1°×1°的NCEP再分析资料,应用非静力中尺度模式WRF对0601号台风“珍珠”进行数值模拟,研究引发暴雨的成因以及螺旋雨带内部结构特征,并讨论了登陆后螺旋雨带断裂的原因。
分析表明:深厚的对流系统是台风在陆地上产生强烈降水的直接原因;螺旋带的密实结构是台风产生强降水的重要指标;冷空气的南下以及有利的地形条件对降水起了重要的增幅作用;中、低纬系统相互作用是暴雨和强对流天气发生发展的重要触发机制。进一步分析表明,登陆前台风中心的西南侧和东北侧的螺旋雨带近似对称分布,台风中的气旋式涡度、垂直运动、水平动量等都高度集中在螺旋雨带中。螺旋雨带的水汽主要来自850hPa以下,而且是来自外侧具有明显对流性不稳定的空气,它为螺旋雨带的发展提供了不稳定能量。螺旋雨带的外侧存在风速高达50m·s~(-1)左右的中尺度强风带,它的产生和外侧的空气向螺旋雨带流入时气压梯度力所起的加速作用有关。
导致螺旋雨带断裂可能有两个原因:(1)高、低层系统的变化;(2)地形的影响作用。一方面强迫抬升作用促使强的上升运动触发了对流形成暴雨,另一方面不稳定能量在迎风坡的聚集,以及潜热释放的作用可以使中、高层增温和高层辐散加强从而有利于地形垂直环流向上伸展和加强,形成正反馈,最终导致地形对降水的强烈增幅。
另外,本文还进行了GPS掩星折射率资料的同化试验,以考察该资料对台风预报的改进作用。结果发现,同化GPS掩星折射率资料后,对台风强度和路径的改善作用不大,但是对于暴雨区极值中心的降水量有明显的改进作用。从各物理量场的偏差图和均方差图可以看出,对各物理量的调整主要集中在对流层的下层。
Through utilizing the NCEP reanalysis data of 1°×1°and the non-hydrostatic meso-scale model WRF, the numerical experiment are conducted to simulate typhoon "perl" (0601), Base on which, the reasons that leads to the typhoon rainstorm, the features of its spiral rain band, and the factors that causes its rupture are researched in-depth.
From analysis, we found that: the deep convection is the direct reason for the heavy rainstorm on land; the thick and solid structure of the spiral band is a significant index of the typhoon rainstorm. The transmission of the cold air toward south and the advantageous orographic condition play a vital role in enlarging the intensity of the rainstorm. The interaction between the weather systems in both mid and low latitude is a key triggering mechanism. Further analysis indicates that the spiral rain bands at the northeast and southwest position of typhoon system locate symmetrically from the typhoon eye. The cyclonic vorticity, the vertical movement, the horizontal momentum and so forth all centered at the spiral rain area. The moisture mainly comes from the levels below 850hPa, and obviously from the unstable convective air outside, it which provides the unstable energy for the spiral rain band. A mesoscale strong wind band with velocity over 50m·s~(-1) exists outside the spiral rain band, its birth relates to the accelerating function engendered by the pressure grads when the influe spiral rain band is inflowing.
Two possible factors caused the rupture of the spiral rain band. One is the transformation of the upper and lower system; the other is the orographic influence. On one hand, the orographic forcing and uplifting function induced convection and further formed the rainstorm, on the other hand, the unstable energy gatherd near the windward slope and the effect of release of potential heat are capable of heating the mid and upper level and strengthening the upper level and thus be propitious to the upward spread and strengthening of the orographic vertical circle, formed the positive feedback and finally bring the strong enlargement of the quantity of rainstorm.
In addition, the assimilation experiment of COSMIC GPSRO refrectivity data is further conducted to test its effect on improving typhoon forecast. It is concluded that after assimilation, the intensity and track are not obviously coordinated while the maximum quantity of typhoon rainstorm are significantly refined. Meanwhile the coodination of the presented variables mainly centred at the lower layers of troposphere.
分析表明:深厚的对流系统是台风在陆地上产生强烈降水的直接原因;螺旋带的密实结构是台风产生强降水的重要指标;冷空气的南下以及有利的地形条件对降水起了重要的增幅作用;中、低纬系统相互作用是暴雨和强对流天气发生发展的重要触发机制。进一步分析表明,登陆前台风中心的西南侧和东北侧的螺旋雨带近似对称分布,台风中的气旋式涡度、垂直运动、水平动量等都高度集中在螺旋雨带中。螺旋雨带的水汽主要来自850hPa以下,而且是来自外侧具有明显对流性不稳定的空气,它为螺旋雨带的发展提供了不稳定能量。螺旋雨带的外侧存在风速高达50m·s~(-1)左右的中尺度强风带,它的产生和外侧的空气向螺旋雨带流入时气压梯度力所起的加速作用有关。
导致螺旋雨带断裂可能有两个原因:(1)高、低层系统的变化;(2)地形的影响作用。一方面强迫抬升作用促使强的上升运动触发了对流形成暴雨,另一方面不稳定能量在迎风坡的聚集,以及潜热释放的作用可以使中、高层增温和高层辐散加强从而有利于地形垂直环流向上伸展和加强,形成正反馈,最终导致地形对降水的强烈增幅。
另外,本文还进行了GPS掩星折射率资料的同化试验,以考察该资料对台风预报的改进作用。结果发现,同化GPS掩星折射率资料后,对台风强度和路径的改善作用不大,但是对于暴雨区极值中心的降水量有明显的改进作用。从各物理量场的偏差图和均方差图可以看出,对各物理量的调整主要集中在对流层的下层。
Through utilizing the NCEP reanalysis data of 1°×1°and the non-hydrostatic meso-scale model WRF, the numerical experiment are conducted to simulate typhoon "perl" (0601), Base on which, the reasons that leads to the typhoon rainstorm, the features of its spiral rain band, and the factors that causes its rupture are researched in-depth.
From analysis, we found that: the deep convection is the direct reason for the heavy rainstorm on land; the thick and solid structure of the spiral band is a significant index of the typhoon rainstorm. The transmission of the cold air toward south and the advantageous orographic condition play a vital role in enlarging the intensity of the rainstorm. The interaction between the weather systems in both mid and low latitude is a key triggering mechanism. Further analysis indicates that the spiral rain bands at the northeast and southwest position of typhoon system locate symmetrically from the typhoon eye. The cyclonic vorticity, the vertical movement, the horizontal momentum and so forth all centered at the spiral rain area. The moisture mainly comes from the levels below 850hPa, and obviously from the unstable convective air outside, it which provides the unstable energy for the spiral rain band. A mesoscale strong wind band with velocity over 50m·s~(-1) exists outside the spiral rain band, its birth relates to the accelerating function engendered by the pressure grads when the influe spiral rain band is inflowing.
Two possible factors caused the rupture of the spiral rain band. One is the transformation of the upper and lower system; the other is the orographic influence. On one hand, the orographic forcing and uplifting function induced convection and further formed the rainstorm, on the other hand, the unstable energy gatherd near the windward slope and the effect of release of potential heat are capable of heating the mid and upper level and strengthening the upper level and thus be propitious to the upward spread and strengthening of the orographic vertical circle, formed the positive feedback and finally bring the strong enlargement of the quantity of rainstorm.
In addition, the assimilation experiment of COSMIC GPSRO refrectivity data is further conducted to test its effect on improving typhoon forecast. It is concluded that after assimilation, the intensity and track are not obviously coordinated while the maximum quantity of typhoon rainstorm are significantly refined. Meanwhile the coodination of the presented variables mainly centred at the lower layers of troposphere.
引文
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[2]朱乾根,林锦瑞,寿绍文等.天气学原理和方法.北京:气象出版社,2003.
[3]陈瑞闪.台风.福建:福建科学技术出版社,2002
[4]陈联寿,孟智勇.我国热带气旋研究十年进展.大气科学,2001,25:420-432.
[5]陈联寿,罗哲贤,李英.登陆热带气旋研究进展.气象学报,2004,62(5):541-548.
[6]李江南,王安宇,杨兆礼等.台风暴雨的研究进展.热带气象学报,2003,19(增刊):152-158.
[7]章淹,张民义,白建强.台风暴雨.自然灾害学报,1995,4(3):15-22.
[8]安赛斯R A.热带气旋的发展、结构和影响.北京:气象出版社,1982:46-47.
[9]E lsbery R L,热带气旋全球观.北京:气象出版社,1994:72-129.
[10]Liu Y,Zhang D L,Yau M K.A multiscal numerical study of Hurricane Andrew(1992).Part Ⅰ:Explicit simulation and verification.Mon.Wea.Rev.,1999,125:3073-3093.
[11]Liu Y,Zhang D L,Yau M K.A multiscal numerical study of Hurricane Andrew(1992).Part Ⅱ:Kinematics and inner-core structures.Mon.Wea.Rev.,1999,127:2597-2616.
[12]Zhang D L,Liu Y,Yau M K.A multiscal numerical study of Hurricane Andrew(1992).Part Ⅲ:Dynamically induced vertical montion.Mon.Wea.Rev.,2000,128:3772-3788.
[13]Zhang D L,Liu Y,Yau M K.A multiscal numerical study of Hurricane Andrew(1992).Part Ⅳ:Unbalanced flows.Mon.Wea.Rev.,2001,129:93-107.
[14]Wang Y.An explicit simulation of tropical cyclones with a triply nest movable mesh primitive equation model-TCM3.Part Ⅰ:Model description and control experiment.Mon.Wea.Rev.,2001,129:1370-1394.
[15]Wang Y.Vortex Rossby wave in a numerically simulated tropical cyclone.Part Ⅰ:Overall strucyure,potential vorticity,and kinetic energy budgests.J.Atmos.Sci.,2002,59:1213-1238.
[16]Wang Y.Vortex Rossby wave in a numerically simulated tropical cyclone.Part Ⅱ:The role in tropical cyclone structure and intensity chang.J.Atmos.Sci.,2002,59:1239-1262.
[17]李志楠,郑新江,赵亚民等.9608号台风低压外围暴雨中尺度云团的发生发展.热带气象学报,2000,16(4):316-326.
[18]李云川,张杏敏,周须文.一次台风外围大暴雨的结构特征.气象,25(7):21-21.
[19]林燕红,曾国经.0010号台风路径及登陆后暴雨成因浅析.广东气象,2001,36-38.
[20]李玉兰.利用卫星云图分析台风暴雨.台风会议文集.北京:气象出版社,1981.
[21]励申申.台风倒槽暴雨的动力结构.台风会议文集.北京:气象出版社,1985.
[22]钮学新,杜惠良,刘建勇.0216号台风降水及其影响降水机制的数值模拟试验.气象学报,2005,63(1):57-68.
[23]丁治英,张兴强,何金海等.非纬向高空急流与远距离台风中尺度暴雨的研究.热带气象学报,2001,17(2):144-154.
[24]沈桐立,马林,温市耕.江淮流域一次特大暴雨的数值模拟及动力分析.南京气象学院学报,1995,18(4):486-493.
[25]熊文兵,沈桐立,钟利华.2005年6月华南持续性暴雨爆发和维持机制分析.广西气象,2006,27(4):11-15.
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