北京市保障性住房制度与中低收入家庭安居问题的数量分析
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摘要
伴随着经济体制的改革,住房分配制度经历了由住房公共福利分配模式,单一的货币化分房模式,向商品化住房供应制度的转变。经济发展为房地产行业提供了重要发展契机。市场经济作用下房地产市场的繁荣使住房供给数量、房屋质量、配套标准等指标稳步提高,但同时也伴随着住房价格快速上涨,商品房售价最高记录被不断刷新。北京从2007年起房价一路走高,在高房价面前,中低收入居民家庭住房条件无力改善、基本住房需求无法得到满足。为此,关于保障性住房制度与中低收入家庭安居问题的研究,不仅非常急迫,具有重要的现实意义,同时也有显著的理论和学术价值。
本文针对北京市保障性住房制度特点,把数量分析方法应用到对保障性住房制度问题的研究,并提出了针对保障房准入标准、保障规模、资金需求和退出机制等保障房主要制度环节的一套测算方法体系。
本文的主要工作为：
首先,提出了保障房准入标准的测算方法。构建比较静态分析模型作为全文理论研究基础。提出两种测算保障房准入标准的方法,一是在政府给定保障规模情况下,基于收入分布函数拟合方法测算准入标准：二是从商品房市场价格出发,基于房价收入配比公式方法测算准入标准。结合收入分布函数拟合方法,在既定的保障规模下测算廉租住房、经济适用房、限价商品房准入标准线,并与现行的准入标准和制度保障规模做对比分析。以廉租房为例,当准入标准调整后计算政策效应差异性并进行政策模拟。
其次,对保障房制度保障规模进行测算。对于保障规模赋予两种角度的解读,一是制度保障规模,即收入水平低于廉租住房、经济适用房、限价商品房制度准入标准的中低收入居民人数,并对“十二五”期间保障规模的变化趋势进行预测；另一种是对实际保障房需求总量的计算,即按照实际商品房价格和居民实际收入水平计算的无力购买商品房居民的人数,这部分居民需要政府为其提供住房保障,以及对居民可以承受商品房价格区间的测算。对保障房体系和商品房市场间的夹心层群体规模进行测算,提出保障房体系内夹心层群体问题与群体规模计算方法。
再次,对保障房资金总量的测算。通过对保障房资金需求总量目标的任务分解,先依据保障房制度规则,分别构建了廉租住房、经济适用房和限价商品房的资金需求测算模型,而后汇总成为北京市保障房资金需求总量模型。并利用相关统计数据进行了实证分析。归纳了保障房资金供给渠道类型,用博弈论方法证明社会资本参与保障房建设的可行性。
最后,提出保障房退出机制设计。在住房过滤理论、住房供求关系与住房需求理论、居民收入的住房消费比例与需要层次理论的基础上,本文提出了梯度补贴动态退出机制模型。针对夹心层群体问题,提出了存在夹心层群体时的保障房退出机制构想。
With the economic system reform, housing allocation system has gone through by the public welfare housing distribution model, the monetization of housing distribution model to commercialization of housing supply system. Economic development has provided an important opportunity for the real estate industry development. The real estate market development using market-oriented mode of operation not only to improve the housing supply quantity, quality levels and housing construction standards, but also to promote faster growth rate of housing prices, housing prices highest on record to be constantly refreshed. Housing prices climb higher and higher in Beijing during2007. Facing the high prices, low-income households unable to improve housing conditions, meet their basic housing needs. Therefore, the research of indemnificatory housing system and housing problems of low-income families is very urgent, this problems are not only has important practical significance, but also has a significant theoretical and academic value.
In this thesis, according to Beijing indemnificatory system characteristics, the quantitative analysis method is applied to the problem of indemnificatory housing system research, including the major institutional links of access standards, scale, capital requirements, and exit mechanisms.
The main works are:
First of all, bring forward the indemnificatory housing access standard calculation method. There are two ways to get the indemnificatory housing access standard, one is given a guarantee scale by the government, calculates access standard based on income distribution function fitting method. The other one is based on Housing-price ratio formula and the real housing price to count the access standard. In case of low-rent housing, when the access standards adjust to different level, we find out the policy effects and conduct policy simulations.
Secondly, measure the indemnificatory housing system scale. Two angles for the interpretation given to the guarantee scale, one is system guarantee scale, that income level is below the low-rent housing, affordable housing, limit commercial housing access standards in the number of low-income residents, and predicte the guarantee scale changing trends in the period of "12th Five Year Plan"; another is the actual calculation of the total demand for indemnificatory housing, that is the number of people who is not able to afford the commercial housing according to the actual incomes and the real housing prices, which requires the government to provide some residents housing security, and computes the residents affordable commercial housing price range. At the end of this part, we computes the group of sandwich layer number between indemnificatory housing system and commercial housing market, provides calculation menthods to the problems of sandwich layer groups number inside the housing system.
Thirdly, estimate the total funding for housing. We decompound funding needs for indemnificatory housing into three parts, which are low-rent housing funding needs model, affordable housing funding needs model and limit commercial housing funding needs model, and then aggregat to become a total funding requirement of indemnificatory housing in Beijing volume model, at last, use the relevant statistical data for the empirical analysis. We sum up the indemnificatory housing capital supply channel type, prove the feasibility of social funds taking part in the indemnificatory housing establishment by using game theory.
Finally, design the indemnificatory housing exit mechanism. Based on the filtration theory in the housing, housing demand and supply theory, the proportion of residents' income and housing consumption needs theory, we propose a dynamic gradient subsidy withdrawal mechanism model. For groups of sandwich layer problem, we also provide the exit mechanism conception when there are sandwich layer groups in the indemnificatory housing system.
本文针对北京市保障性住房制度特点,把数量分析方法应用到对保障性住房制度问题的研究,并提出了针对保障房准入标准、保障规模、资金需求和退出机制等保障房主要制度环节的一套测算方法体系。
本文的主要工作为：
首先,提出了保障房准入标准的测算方法。构建比较静态分析模型作为全文理论研究基础。提出两种测算保障房准入标准的方法,一是在政府给定保障规模情况下,基于收入分布函数拟合方法测算准入标准：二是从商品房市场价格出发,基于房价收入配比公式方法测算准入标准。结合收入分布函数拟合方法,在既定的保障规模下测算廉租住房、经济适用房、限价商品房准入标准线,并与现行的准入标准和制度保障规模做对比分析。以廉租房为例,当准入标准调整后计算政策效应差异性并进行政策模拟。
其次,对保障房制度保障规模进行测算。对于保障规模赋予两种角度的解读,一是制度保障规模,即收入水平低于廉租住房、经济适用房、限价商品房制度准入标准的中低收入居民人数,并对“十二五”期间保障规模的变化趋势进行预测；另一种是对实际保障房需求总量的计算,即按照实际商品房价格和居民实际收入水平计算的无力购买商品房居民的人数,这部分居民需要政府为其提供住房保障,以及对居民可以承受商品房价格区间的测算。对保障房体系和商品房市场间的夹心层群体规模进行测算,提出保障房体系内夹心层群体问题与群体规模计算方法。
再次,对保障房资金总量的测算。通过对保障房资金需求总量目标的任务分解,先依据保障房制度规则,分别构建了廉租住房、经济适用房和限价商品房的资金需求测算模型,而后汇总成为北京市保障房资金需求总量模型。并利用相关统计数据进行了实证分析。归纳了保障房资金供给渠道类型,用博弈论方法证明社会资本参与保障房建设的可行性。
最后,提出保障房退出机制设计。在住房过滤理论、住房供求关系与住房需求理论、居民收入的住房消费比例与需要层次理论的基础上,本文提出了梯度补贴动态退出机制模型。针对夹心层群体问题,提出了存在夹心层群体时的保障房退出机制构想。
With the economic system reform, housing allocation system has gone through by the public welfare housing distribution model, the monetization of housing distribution model to commercialization of housing supply system. Economic development has provided an important opportunity for the real estate industry development. The real estate market development using market-oriented mode of operation not only to improve the housing supply quantity, quality levels and housing construction standards, but also to promote faster growth rate of housing prices, housing prices highest on record to be constantly refreshed. Housing prices climb higher and higher in Beijing during2007. Facing the high prices, low-income households unable to improve housing conditions, meet their basic housing needs. Therefore, the research of indemnificatory housing system and housing problems of low-income families is very urgent, this problems are not only has important practical significance, but also has a significant theoretical and academic value.
In this thesis, according to Beijing indemnificatory system characteristics, the quantitative analysis method is applied to the problem of indemnificatory housing system research, including the major institutional links of access standards, scale, capital requirements, and exit mechanisms.
The main works are:
First of all, bring forward the indemnificatory housing access standard calculation method. There are two ways to get the indemnificatory housing access standard, one is given a guarantee scale by the government, calculates access standard based on income distribution function fitting method. The other one is based on Housing-price ratio formula and the real housing price to count the access standard. In case of low-rent housing, when the access standards adjust to different level, we find out the policy effects and conduct policy simulations.
Secondly, measure the indemnificatory housing system scale. Two angles for the interpretation given to the guarantee scale, one is system guarantee scale, that income level is below the low-rent housing, affordable housing, limit commercial housing access standards in the number of low-income residents, and predicte the guarantee scale changing trends in the period of "12th Five Year Plan"; another is the actual calculation of the total demand for indemnificatory housing, that is the number of people who is not able to afford the commercial housing according to the actual incomes and the real housing prices, which requires the government to provide some residents housing security, and computes the residents affordable commercial housing price range. At the end of this part, we computes the group of sandwich layer number between indemnificatory housing system and commercial housing market, provides calculation menthods to the problems of sandwich layer groups number inside the housing system.
Thirdly, estimate the total funding for housing. We decompound funding needs for indemnificatory housing into three parts, which are low-rent housing funding needs model, affordable housing funding needs model and limit commercial housing funding needs model, and then aggregat to become a total funding requirement of indemnificatory housing in Beijing volume model, at last, use the relevant statistical data for the empirical analysis. We sum up the indemnificatory housing capital supply channel type, prove the feasibility of social funds taking part in the indemnificatory housing establishment by using game theory.
Finally, design the indemnificatory housing exit mechanism. Based on the filtration theory in the housing, housing demand and supply theory, the proportion of residents' income and housing consumption needs theory, we propose a dynamic gradient subsidy withdrawal mechanism model. For groups of sandwich layer problem, we also provide the exit mechanism conception when there are sandwich layer groups in the indemnificatory housing system.
引文
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