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美国风险投资与技术进步、新兴产业发展的关系研究
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摘要
20世纪以来,风险投资逐步活跃起来,现已形成了特色鲜明的金融投资产业——风险投资业。现代真正意义的风险投资始于美国,美国成为世界第一大经济体,风险投资发挥了重要作用。世界上第一家风险投资公司——美国研究与开发公司(AR&D)于1946年在美国建立,其最令人称道的投资项目是1957年对数字设备公司(DEC)投资7万美元,到1968年退出时获得3.55亿美元的高额收益,年回报率高达101%。美国的风险投资在创造高额产出的同时,促进了新兴科技产业的飞速发展。自20世纪六七十年以来,风险投资是技术融资的代名词,半导体、计算机、医疗等方面的创新企业得到了风险投资的高度支持,推动了信息产业、生物医药产业、新能源、新材料产业的不断发展。风险投资将资本、人力和技术紧密结合在一起,创造了美国经济高速发展的奇迹,缔造了多个在美国国民经济中占据重要地位的新兴产业。美国几十年风险投资和新兴产业不论是理论上还是实践上都处于领先水平,其无论是经验还是教训都值得作为发展中国家的我国研究、借鉴和反思。
     本文围绕美国风险投资与技术进步、新兴产业的关系进行了深入广泛的研究,从美国风险投资和新兴产业的发展历程和现实情况入手,分析了美国风险投资支持新兴产业发展的绩效与作用,并运用计量模型对其关系进行检验。本文主要分为以下几部分:
     第一部分是绪论。阐述了本文的研究背景和研究意义,对国内外关于风险投资运行机制、风险投资对风险企业的影响、风险投资与技术进步的关系、风险投资对新兴产业的影响等方面的研究进行了系统的综述,并加以评述。同时,介绍了论文的基本框架及研究方法,提炼了本文的创新点,并剖析了不足之处,希望在以后的研究中能继续完善.
     第二部分对风险投资与技术进步、新兴产业的关系进行了理论概述。首先,对风险投资的概念进行了界定,对风险投资的特点、基本要素、运行机制和理论基础进行了详细的阐述。其次,分析了风险投资与技术进步的关系,发现风险投资促进了技术创新,为技术创新提供了资金支持并分担了风险,推动了高新技术的产业化,助推了高科技产业集群的形成;反过来,技术进步又激发了风险投资的投资热情,为风险投资提供了获取高额利润的投资渠道。再次,对新兴产业的涵义、特点、产生及发展的原因进行了分析。最后,对技术进步与新兴产业关系、风险投资与新兴产业的关系进行了深入的分析。
     第三部分对美国风险投资的发展历程进行了详细的总结和深入的分析。将美国风险投资的发展历程归纳为七个阶段,每一阶段都有各自的特点。第一阶段为19世纪末~1945年,是孕育阶段。第二阶段是1946~1970年,是发展阶段。在这一阶段,产生了现代第一个真正意义的风险投资公司,并形成了第一次风险投资的浪潮。第三阶段是1971~1980年,是调整阶段。1973年的美国经济危机、布雷顿森林体系瓦解,使依靠于实体经济发展的风险投资业陷入衰退。但纳斯达克市场的建立和政府相关财税优惠政策的出台,又使风险投资业焕发了新的生机,进入调整期。第四阶段是1981~1989年,是快速发展时期。风险资本规模不断扩大,进入快速发展阶段,形成了第二次风险投资浪潮。第五阶段是1990~2000年,是成熟阶段。风险投资将互联网业推到了前所未有的高度,在推动科技进步、加速科技成果转化的同时,获得了高额利润。第六阶段是2001~2008年,是调整发展阶段。2001年网络泡沫破灭后,风险投资业从疯狂归于理性,重新调整投资策略,除软件业外,生物医药产业成为风险投资的重点。第七阶段是2009年至今,是缓慢发展阶段。受国际金融危机影响,2009年是美国风险投资大幅下滑的一年,但随后,随着美国经济刺激计划的出台,风险投资业缓慢复苏。从美国风险投资的发展历程看,每次风险投资的兴起都伴随着新兴高科技产业的繁荣。
     第四部分对美国的科技进步的发展历程、动力及影响进行了分析。美国科技进步是随着三次科技革命不断发展的,每次科技革命都加快了美国的科技创新速度。而美国科技进步的动力有很多,主要有市场和政府的资源配置和引导,完善的投融资体制,综合的科技创新平台等。美国的科技进步对美国乃至世界各国都产生了深渊了影响,推动了社会经济结构的变化、催生了新兴产业的产生和发展、加速了经济全球化进程,但也带来一定负面影响。
     第五部分对美国新兴产业的发展进行了分析。新兴产业是所处时代具有领先地位的高科技产业,随着科学技术的不断进步,不同时期总会涌现出相应的新兴产业。20世纪五六十年代,美国电子信息技术的发展催生了以半导体、计算机软硬件、互联网等高科技信息产业的发展;20世纪七八十年代,基因技术的发明和应用推动了现代生物医药业的不断发展;21世纪以来,随着低碳经济的发展,新能源、新材料产业飞速,成为美国的新兴产业。这些新兴产业的发展离不开美国政府的政策支持,更离不开高新产业孵化器——风险投资的大力推动。通过对美国有代表性的新兴产业——信息产业、生物医药产业、新能源产业发展状况、动力等进行分析发现,新兴产业的助推器主要有两个,一是政府,二是新兴产业。政府为新兴产业的发展提供了政策的支持,风险投资为新兴产业的发展提供了资金和管理支持。在这两大因素的共同推动下,美国的新兴产业飞速发展,推动了全社会的技术进步,促进了美国经济的发展,使美国成为世界第一经济大国。
     第六部分深入分析了美国风险投资对技术进步及新兴产业的影响。从美国风险投资业和新兴产业的发展历程看,风险投资、技术进步和新兴产业发展的过程是一个相辅相成、互相促进的过程。风险投资是技术创新的重要金融工具,促进了技术创新效率的大幅提高。技术的创新和进步,又激发了新兴产业的形成。美国的风险投资又为新兴产业提供大量资金,进一步推动了新兴产业的技术创新,使新兴产业快速发展,产值和市值不断增加,对美国经济的影响不断加深。同时,通过对风险投资与新兴产业共同发展的较好的典型案例——美国硅谷的分析表明,风险投资促进了高新技术产业集群的形成,反过来高新技术产业集群式发展又吸引了风险投资的集聚。
     第七部分用数理方法检验了美国风险投资的影响。通过建立计量经济学模型,利用时间序列变量之间的协整理论与误差修正模型来研究美国风险投资与经济增长和新兴产业总产出之间的长期稳定及短期动态调整关系。实证研究的结论表明,美国风险投资不仅在短期内促进了美国国民生产总值、美国上市公司市值和美国信息产业产值的增加,而且在长期内对二者的增长也有明显的促进作用。
     第八部分总结了美国风险投资促进新兴产业发展的经验,进而提出对我国的启示。美国的主要经验有:在法律基础、财税政策等方面给予风险投资以大力支持,政府牵头设立风险投资引导基金,建立多层次资本市场,发挥了行业协会的重要作用,有完善的风险投资运作机制、广泛的资金来源和先进的人才培养机制,极大地推动了风险投资对科技企业的支持。我国正在进行创新型国家的建设,因此,总结美国风险投资支持科技企业发展的经验,对我国意义重大。
As early as fifteenth century, venture investment(VC) began to sprout. Untiltwentieth century it began to perk up, now has formed a distinctive feature of thefinancial industry, venture investment industry. VC was born in the USA, and play animportant role for the economic development of the country. American Research andDevelopment Corp.,the first VC firm was established in1946. The most impressiveinvestment project was to invest$70000in the Digital Equipment Corporation (DEC)in1957, and earned a high profits of$355billion in1968, which annual returns at ahigh level of101%. American VC created high output and promoted the developmentof emerging industries. Since twentieth century sixty or seventy’s, VC promoted thecontinuous development of the information industry, biological medicine industry,new energy, new material industry, etc. VC mixed the capital, labor and technologyclosely, created USA high-speed economic development miracle and many emergingindustries which as an important position in the national economy. The history ofAmerican VC and the emerging industries, provide valuable experience and lessonsfor developing countries.
     This paper has deeply studied on the relationship between VC and technicalprogress, emerging industries in USA, Mainly consists of the following parts:
     The first part is the introduction. It expounds the research background andresearch significance, summarizes the VC literature. At the same time, refines theinnovations and analyzes the deficiencies of this paper.
     The second part is a theoretical overview on the relationship between VC andtechnical progress, emerging industries. Firstly, the concept of venture capital is defined, the characteristics, the basic elements operation mechanism and theoreticalbasis of VC is expounded. Secondly, the relationship between VC and technicalprogress is analyzes, which is found that the risk of investment to promote technicalinnovation, provided financial support for technical innovation and share the risk,promoted the industrialization of new and high technology, boosted the formation ofhigh-tech industry clusters; in turn, technical progress inspires VC’s investmententhusiasm and provides accesses to high profit investment channels for venturecapital investment. Thirdly, the causes, characteristics, meanings and development ofemerging industries is analyzed. Finally, the relationship between technical progressand emerging industries, venture capital and new industries are analyzed.
     The third part is to summarize the history of American VC deeply which wasdivided into seven stages, each stage had its own characteristics. The first stage isfrom the end of the nineteenth Century to1945, which is pregnant stage. The secondstage is1946~1970, which is the development stage. At this time, the first modern VCcorporation was built, then the first round wave of VC was formatted. The third stageis1971~1980, which is the stage of adjustment. The economic crisis in1976and thecollapse of The Bretton Woods system made the VC industry into recession which relied onthe development of real economy. But the establishment of the NASDAQ andintroduction of related preferential taxation policies of government, made VCindustry reinvigorating. The fourth stage is1981~1989, which is the rapid developingperiod. During this time, venture capital scale was continually expanded, entered thestage of rapid development stage.The second round wave of VC was formatted.Thefifth stage is1990~2000, which is the mature stage. Venture capital promoted theinternet industry to an unprecedented level. At the same time of promoting theprogress of science and technology and accelerating the transformation of scientificand technological achievements, huge profits were created. The sixth stage is2001~2008, which is the stage of adjustment and development. The bursting of the internet bubble in2001made the VC from crazy to rationla, then adjusted theinvestment strategy, in addition to the software industry, Biotechnology industry hadbecome the focus of VC. The seventh stage is from2009to now, which is slowdevelopment stage. The investment amount of VC had a sharp slide by the impact ofthe international financial crisis. But then, VC industry has has been slow to recoveryby the launch of America economic stimulus plan. In a ward, the rise time of VC wasaccompanied by the emerging high-tech industry prosperity.
     The fourth part is the analysis of the history, the driving force and the empactabout the American technical progress. The scientific and technical revolutionpromoted technical progress of USA, each revolution has quickened the pace oftechnological innovation. The driving force of technical progress including theallocation of resources and guidance of market and government, the perfectinvestment and financing system, the comprehensive science and technologyinnovation platform. American technical progress produces the deep influence on theUSA and other countries, but also brings some negative effects.
     The fifth part is the analysis of the development of American emergingindustries. Emerging industry is a high-tech industry era which has a leading positionin its era.With the continuous progress of science and technology, some emergingindustries gradually developed. In the50or60’s of twentieth Century, thedevelopment of American electronic information technology have led to thedevelopment of high-tech information industry, such as the semiconductor industry,computer hardware and software industry, internet industry and so on. In the70or80's of the twentieth Century, the invention and application of gene technologypromoting the continuous development of modern biotechnology industry. Sincetwenty-first Century, with the development of low carbon economy, new energy, newmaterial industries rapidly become new emerging industries. The emerging industriesof America cannot be successful without the support of government and VC. Through the analysis of the condition and powde of the emerging information industry,biological medicine industry, new energy industry and power industry, we found thatthere are two main boosters which poromoting the development of emerging industry,one is government, the other is VC. Government provides policy support an VCprovides funds and management support.With the help of the two factors, Americanemerging industries increased rapidly, which promoted the development of the USAeconomy,made USA to be the world's largest economy entity.
     The sixth part analyses the influence of VC on the progress of technology andthe development of emerging industries in USA. The VC, the progress of technologyand the development of emerging industries is a complementary, mutual promotionprocess. The VC is an important financial tool innovation to accelerate technologyinnovation efficiency. Technology innovation stimulates the formation of emergingindustries. Then, I selecetde Silicon Valley as the typical case, which is the mostimportant place for VC industry and emerging industries, ang find that theVCindustry and the high-tech industry cluster promoted each other.
     The seventh part tests the relationship between the economic impact about VC inthe USA, through establishing econometric model, using time series between thevariables of the theory of cointegration and error of VC and economic growthbetween the long-term stability and short-term dynamic relationship model. Empiricalstudy results show that, the high economic performance of USA is depended on theVC, not only in the short term but also in the long term, VC plays a significant role.
     The eighth part summarizes the experiences of American VC promoting thedevelopment of emerging industries, and puts forward the enlightenment to China.China is building an innovation oriented country, therefore, summarizes theexperiences of USA is very important to our country.
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