中国房价波动的收入分配效应研究
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摘要
改革开放以来,中国经济实现了持续高速增长,城镇居民收入水平有明显提高。由于区域之间经济发展的不平衡,利益分配机制的不健全以及收入分配调节机制的相对滞后,造成城乡居民之间和城镇居民内部之间的收入差距都在日益扩大。而上世纪九十年代末我国实施住房市场化、货币化改革后,随着城镇化进程的加快,国内房地产市场价格整体上呈持续上扬之势,其中部分大中城市房价波动更为明显,使得高收入居民和家庭更容易获取房价上涨滋生的资产性收益。
统计数据显示,近十余年来,国内整体性房价上涨趋势与城镇居民收入差距逐步拉大几乎同步发生。究其原因,一方面,不同收入阶层居民家庭在购房的支付能力上存在较大鸿沟,相比高收入阶层,房价上涨使得低收入阶层所承担的购房负担过重；另一方面,房价上涨又引起房地产财富存量迅速增加,对不同阶层的家庭总财富状况会产生不同的影响,进一步导致财富在居民或家庭之间分配不均。社会财富的单向转移并向高收入家庭愈加集中的趋势,更将拉大城镇居民中高收入家庭与低收入家庭之间的收入差距。
本文将住房价格波动引起居民之间收入分配状况发生变化的现象定义为房价波动的收入分配效应。这一效应的存在将房价与居民收入分配状况紧密联系起来,凸显出住房的民生属性。由此,房价波动不单是市场自身问题,它也可以看做是现有经济增长模式和收入分配方式等体制性障碍通过房价的一种综合体现。同时,“十二五”规划中将中国经济的发展重心由主要追求效率转向更加注重公平,由主要关注财富增长转向更加注重财富分配等政策方向,也为本文的研究提供了重要的现实依据。由此,探讨中国房价波动收入分配效应的表现、传导机制以及主要渠道,对促进房价合理变动,抑制住房投资投机性需求,支持自住型需求,优化收入分配机制,实现住房和社会公平等方面都具有重要的理论和现实意义。
研究发现,无论从中国宏观数据、区域省际数据还是家庭微观调研数据都证实了住房价格波动会引起家庭财产性收入和家庭总财富的变化,从而改变居民之间的收入分配状况,具有收入分配效应。具体来说,中国房价波动与收入分配状况长期内具有一定的互动关系,短期内两者之间的非均衡状态将会以固定的调整力度逐渐向长期的均衡状态趋近。同时,房价波动的收入分配效应又具有明显的区域差异性,就当前影响效果来说,东部地区和西部地区为正效应,而中部地区为负效应。对于家庭或居民来说,除住房情况可产生收入分配效应外,家庭特征如家庭总收入、家庭的储蓄率以及家庭人口年龄结构也都表现出一定的收入分配效应。此外,居民个体特征如个人的户籍情况、年龄大小以及工作状况也会明显影响到居民之间的收入分配状况。
本文的学术创新与贡献主要体现在：第一,选题的新颖性与现实性,本文较创新性地将当前广受关注的房价与收入分配两大问题纳入到统一的理论框架之下展开深入分析。第二,现有文献对房价波动收入分配效应相关选题的研究还较为缺乏,本文则对这一选题进行了系统性研究并提出了相应对策。第三,对房价波动收入分配效应的传导机制进行归纳,提出房价波动可通过宏观、中观、微观三种渠道影响居民的收入分配状况并对其逐一进行了实证检验。第四,运用了多维度的实证分析,尤其是分析中运用了微观调查数据(CGSS),在分析房价波动收入分配效应的基础上同时研究了家庭特征和个体特征方面的差异可能对居民之间收入分配状况产生的影响。此外,笔者在研究中还依据各省相关统计年鉴数据,逐一推算出1995-2010年中国27省份的城镇基尼系数值,这对相关选题的后续研究也会有一定的借鉴意义。
最后,在内容安排上,本文首先阐述了研究的背景和意义,目标、内容和方法,以及思路和创新等(第一章),并就相关研究的大量文献进行了系统性回顾与梳理(第二章)；其次,从理论角度对房价波动的收入分配效应进行了论述,建立反映房价与家庭收入关联性的世代交叠模型,并指出房价波动可通过宏观渠道、区域渠道以及微观家庭与个体渠道等影响居民之间的收入分配状况(第三章)。接着,分别引入相关数据对上述房价波动收入分配效应的三种传导渠道逐一进行实证检验,如运用中国1986-2010年的时间序列数据,建立VAR模型从宏观层面检验我国房价波动与城镇居民收入分配之间的互动效应(第四章)；运用中国省际面板数据,通过建立动态面板数据模型,比较分析中国东、中、西部和全国房价波动对收入分配的影响及其区域差异(第五章)；采用中国综合社会调查微观数据(CGSS2006),对房价波动收入分配效应的微观传导渠道进行验证(第六章)。最后,基于以上对房价波动的收入分配效应的理论阐述及多维度实证检验结果,提出了相应的对策建议(第七章)。
China has achieved sustained rapid economic growth since the economic reform and opening-up starting from1978and the level of income for urban residents has improved significantly since then. The income gap between urban and rural residents or among urban residents has continued to widen because of the unbalanced economic development in different regions, the imperfect mechanism of benefits distribution, and lagging behind in adjustment mechanism of income distribution. China implemented a national wide urban housing reform program in the late of1990s. After then, the urban real estate prices continually climb up to the most recent, obviously in some of core cities in China, for example, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and among others. The sky-high property prices cause that residents or families in high-income groups are in advantage to receive capital gain from their housing prices increasing.
Evidence shows that the income gap of urban residents is gradually widened as almost synchronous with domestic integrity housing prices rising trend in the past decade. On the one hand, residents in the different income groups have a variety purchasing power of homes. The low-income residents are under a higher pressure in housing purchase than high-income families. On the other hand, the increasing value of property impacts the wealthy distribution among residents in different income groups, which makes unbalanced wealthy distribution in China society even worse than before. There is a rapid growth trend which the social wealthy is concentrated to the rich families one-way recently. Therefore, the gap between the high-and the low-income families was getting bigger and bigger.
The income distributional effect of housing price fluctuation is defined as the phenomenon that income distribution among the residents caused by the housing prices fluctuation in the current research. The existence of this effect is closely linked to housing prices and income distribution situation, and also highlights the livelihood issues of the housing. As a result, fluctuation in house prices is not only the problem of market itself, but also can has been seen as the comprehensive reflection of existing institutional barriers in the model of economic growth and income distribution methods. At the meantime, China12th Five-year economic development program will turn the target from pursuit of efficiency to a fair distribution of social wealthy among residents, which provides significant policy and practical foundations for the current research. Thus, to explore the performance, transmission mechanism and the main channel of the income distribution effects of housing price fluctuation in China have important theoretical and practical significance, such as promoting reasonable housing prices changes, inhibition of investment and speculative housing demand, supporting user demand, and optimizing the mechanism of income distribution, housing and social fairness.
The current study finds that housing prices fluctuation can cause property income and total household wealth change from macro data, the regional inter-provincial data, and family micro survey data, thus it changes the income distribution among the residents. The relationship between the fluctuation of housing prices and distribution of social wealthy is interactive in the long term, but the non-equilibrium relationship in the short term will be gradually near to the long-term equilibrium as a fixed rate. Moreover, the income distribution effects of house prices changes show obvious difference among three areas:two variables move in the same deriction in the western region and eastern region, but opposite deriction in the central region. Household characteristics, for example total household income, household saving rate and household population age structure, are also demonstrated a certain income distribution effects overlooking the income distribution effect of housing prices.In addition, the individual characteristics, such as the individual household registration, age and working conditions, are significantly impacting the income distribution among residents.
The current research contributes to the literatures in the following aspects. First, the research integrates two major popular issues, the price and income distribution, into a unified theoretical framework and presents an in-depth analysis. Second, existing literatures on income distributional effects of housing prices fluctuations are scarce, but this paper performs a systematic study on the topics and puts forward some corresponding countermeasures based on the deep study. Third, we empirically prove that changes in the housing prices impact income distribution through the macro-, regional-, and micro-channel. We systematically summarize the conduction mechanism of the income distribution effects of house prices changes in China. Finally, we employ the multi-dimensional empirical analysis, i.e. micro survey data (CGSS), to study income distribution effects of prices changes. At the meantime, we also test differences in household characteristics and individual characteristics may change the income distribution situation among the residents. As an important aside, it should be noted that we calculate urban Gini coefficient of27provinces in1995-2010according to China's Statistical Yearbook (1996-2011) in the current study. We would like to shed a light for the coming research in future.
This research is organized as follows. Chapter one is an introductive chapter, which will introduce the research background and the research importance. Moreover, both research objectives and research design are also included in this chapter. Chapter two systematically reviews literatures in the field. Chapter three is a methodology chapter. It theoretically discusses the income distributional effects of price changes, and then establishes an overlapping generation model to reflect the correlation of house prices and household income. The model is aim to point out that price changes in the property market can affect income distribution among the residents from the macro-channels, regional channels, and micro channels. Chapter four conducts an empirical analysis of the income distribution effects of the three transmission channels by using the annual time series data through the VAR model to test the mutual effect between China's house prices and income distribution urban residents from a macro-level. Chapter five analyzes comparatively the income distribution effects of house prices changes in central, eastern and western regions of China according to inter-provincial panel data through the establishment of a dynamic panel data model. Chapter six tests microscopic conduction channels on the income distributional effects of housing price employing General Social Survey (CGSS2006) micro-data. The last chapter is a conclusive chapter, which proposes the countermeasures and policy comments.
统计数据显示,近十余年来,国内整体性房价上涨趋势与城镇居民收入差距逐步拉大几乎同步发生。究其原因,一方面,不同收入阶层居民家庭在购房的支付能力上存在较大鸿沟,相比高收入阶层,房价上涨使得低收入阶层所承担的购房负担过重；另一方面,房价上涨又引起房地产财富存量迅速增加,对不同阶层的家庭总财富状况会产生不同的影响,进一步导致财富在居民或家庭之间分配不均。社会财富的单向转移并向高收入家庭愈加集中的趋势,更将拉大城镇居民中高收入家庭与低收入家庭之间的收入差距。
本文将住房价格波动引起居民之间收入分配状况发生变化的现象定义为房价波动的收入分配效应。这一效应的存在将房价与居民收入分配状况紧密联系起来,凸显出住房的民生属性。由此,房价波动不单是市场自身问题,它也可以看做是现有经济增长模式和收入分配方式等体制性障碍通过房价的一种综合体现。同时,“十二五”规划中将中国经济的发展重心由主要追求效率转向更加注重公平,由主要关注财富增长转向更加注重财富分配等政策方向,也为本文的研究提供了重要的现实依据。由此,探讨中国房价波动收入分配效应的表现、传导机制以及主要渠道,对促进房价合理变动,抑制住房投资投机性需求,支持自住型需求,优化收入分配机制,实现住房和社会公平等方面都具有重要的理论和现实意义。
研究发现,无论从中国宏观数据、区域省际数据还是家庭微观调研数据都证实了住房价格波动会引起家庭财产性收入和家庭总财富的变化,从而改变居民之间的收入分配状况,具有收入分配效应。具体来说,中国房价波动与收入分配状况长期内具有一定的互动关系,短期内两者之间的非均衡状态将会以固定的调整力度逐渐向长期的均衡状态趋近。同时,房价波动的收入分配效应又具有明显的区域差异性,就当前影响效果来说,东部地区和西部地区为正效应,而中部地区为负效应。对于家庭或居民来说,除住房情况可产生收入分配效应外,家庭特征如家庭总收入、家庭的储蓄率以及家庭人口年龄结构也都表现出一定的收入分配效应。此外,居民个体特征如个人的户籍情况、年龄大小以及工作状况也会明显影响到居民之间的收入分配状况。
本文的学术创新与贡献主要体现在：第一,选题的新颖性与现实性,本文较创新性地将当前广受关注的房价与收入分配两大问题纳入到统一的理论框架之下展开深入分析。第二,现有文献对房价波动收入分配效应相关选题的研究还较为缺乏,本文则对这一选题进行了系统性研究并提出了相应对策。第三,对房价波动收入分配效应的传导机制进行归纳,提出房价波动可通过宏观、中观、微观三种渠道影响居民的收入分配状况并对其逐一进行了实证检验。第四,运用了多维度的实证分析,尤其是分析中运用了微观调查数据(CGSS),在分析房价波动收入分配效应的基础上同时研究了家庭特征和个体特征方面的差异可能对居民之间收入分配状况产生的影响。此外,笔者在研究中还依据各省相关统计年鉴数据,逐一推算出1995-2010年中国27省份的城镇基尼系数值,这对相关选题的后续研究也会有一定的借鉴意义。
最后,在内容安排上,本文首先阐述了研究的背景和意义,目标、内容和方法,以及思路和创新等(第一章),并就相关研究的大量文献进行了系统性回顾与梳理(第二章)；其次,从理论角度对房价波动的收入分配效应进行了论述,建立反映房价与家庭收入关联性的世代交叠模型,并指出房价波动可通过宏观渠道、区域渠道以及微观家庭与个体渠道等影响居民之间的收入分配状况(第三章)。接着,分别引入相关数据对上述房价波动收入分配效应的三种传导渠道逐一进行实证检验,如运用中国1986-2010年的时间序列数据,建立VAR模型从宏观层面检验我国房价波动与城镇居民收入分配之间的互动效应(第四章)；运用中国省际面板数据,通过建立动态面板数据模型,比较分析中国东、中、西部和全国房价波动对收入分配的影响及其区域差异(第五章)；采用中国综合社会调查微观数据(CGSS2006),对房价波动收入分配效应的微观传导渠道进行验证(第六章)。最后,基于以上对房价波动的收入分配效应的理论阐述及多维度实证检验结果,提出了相应的对策建议(第七章)。
China has achieved sustained rapid economic growth since the economic reform and opening-up starting from1978and the level of income for urban residents has improved significantly since then. The income gap between urban and rural residents or among urban residents has continued to widen because of the unbalanced economic development in different regions, the imperfect mechanism of benefits distribution, and lagging behind in adjustment mechanism of income distribution. China implemented a national wide urban housing reform program in the late of1990s. After then, the urban real estate prices continually climb up to the most recent, obviously in some of core cities in China, for example, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and among others. The sky-high property prices cause that residents or families in high-income groups are in advantage to receive capital gain from their housing prices increasing.
Evidence shows that the income gap of urban residents is gradually widened as almost synchronous with domestic integrity housing prices rising trend in the past decade. On the one hand, residents in the different income groups have a variety purchasing power of homes. The low-income residents are under a higher pressure in housing purchase than high-income families. On the other hand, the increasing value of property impacts the wealthy distribution among residents in different income groups, which makes unbalanced wealthy distribution in China society even worse than before. There is a rapid growth trend which the social wealthy is concentrated to the rich families one-way recently. Therefore, the gap between the high-and the low-income families was getting bigger and bigger.
The income distributional effect of housing price fluctuation is defined as the phenomenon that income distribution among the residents caused by the housing prices fluctuation in the current research. The existence of this effect is closely linked to housing prices and income distribution situation, and also highlights the livelihood issues of the housing. As a result, fluctuation in house prices is not only the problem of market itself, but also can has been seen as the comprehensive reflection of existing institutional barriers in the model of economic growth and income distribution methods. At the meantime, China12th Five-year economic development program will turn the target from pursuit of efficiency to a fair distribution of social wealthy among residents, which provides significant policy and practical foundations for the current research. Thus, to explore the performance, transmission mechanism and the main channel of the income distribution effects of housing price fluctuation in China have important theoretical and practical significance, such as promoting reasonable housing prices changes, inhibition of investment and speculative housing demand, supporting user demand, and optimizing the mechanism of income distribution, housing and social fairness.
The current study finds that housing prices fluctuation can cause property income and total household wealth change from macro data, the regional inter-provincial data, and family micro survey data, thus it changes the income distribution among the residents. The relationship between the fluctuation of housing prices and distribution of social wealthy is interactive in the long term, but the non-equilibrium relationship in the short term will be gradually near to the long-term equilibrium as a fixed rate. Moreover, the income distribution effects of house prices changes show obvious difference among three areas:two variables move in the same deriction in the western region and eastern region, but opposite deriction in the central region. Household characteristics, for example total household income, household saving rate and household population age structure, are also demonstrated a certain income distribution effects overlooking the income distribution effect of housing prices.In addition, the individual characteristics, such as the individual household registration, age and working conditions, are significantly impacting the income distribution among residents.
The current research contributes to the literatures in the following aspects. First, the research integrates two major popular issues, the price and income distribution, into a unified theoretical framework and presents an in-depth analysis. Second, existing literatures on income distributional effects of housing prices fluctuations are scarce, but this paper performs a systematic study on the topics and puts forward some corresponding countermeasures based on the deep study. Third, we empirically prove that changes in the housing prices impact income distribution through the macro-, regional-, and micro-channel. We systematically summarize the conduction mechanism of the income distribution effects of house prices changes in China. Finally, we employ the multi-dimensional empirical analysis, i.e. micro survey data (CGSS), to study income distribution effects of prices changes. At the meantime, we also test differences in household characteristics and individual characteristics may change the income distribution situation among the residents. As an important aside, it should be noted that we calculate urban Gini coefficient of27provinces in1995-2010according to China's Statistical Yearbook (1996-2011) in the current study. We would like to shed a light for the coming research in future.
This research is organized as follows. Chapter one is an introductive chapter, which will introduce the research background and the research importance. Moreover, both research objectives and research design are also included in this chapter. Chapter two systematically reviews literatures in the field. Chapter three is a methodology chapter. It theoretically discusses the income distributional effects of price changes, and then establishes an overlapping generation model to reflect the correlation of house prices and household income. The model is aim to point out that price changes in the property market can affect income distribution among the residents from the macro-channels, regional channels, and micro channels. Chapter four conducts an empirical analysis of the income distribution effects of the three transmission channels by using the annual time series data through the VAR model to test the mutual effect between China's house prices and income distribution urban residents from a macro-level. Chapter five analyzes comparatively the income distribution effects of house prices changes in central, eastern and western regions of China according to inter-provincial panel data through the establishment of a dynamic panel data model. Chapter six tests microscopic conduction channels on the income distributional effects of housing price employing General Social Survey (CGSS2006) micro-data. The last chapter is a conclusive chapter, which proposes the countermeasures and policy comments.
引文
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