乡村旅游发展动力系统研究
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摘要
乡村旅游是乡村经济与旅游经济发展的产物。近年来，在我国乡村旅游快速发展的同时，出现了乡村旅游数量急速增长而质量缓慢游移、乡村旅游产品全面开花而内容千篇一律的问题。如何实现乡村旅游的可持续发展、推动乡村旅游升级和创新成为当前乡村旅游研究的重大问题。国内外已有的研究表明，根据乡村旅游目的地建设的性质、特征、规律，架构乡村旅游发展动力系统，构筑长效发展动力系统，是促进乡村旅游持续、健康发展的主要途径之一。
本研究采用系统科学的研究范式与方法，结合可持续发展理论、旅游地生命周期理论、系统动力学理论、核心—边缘理论、利益相关者理论等，探讨乡村旅游的动力系统结构、乡村旅游动力系统运行环境与机制，运用BP神经网络模型和灰色系统GM(1,1)模型等预测西安市乡村旅游未来的发展趋势，并提出完善及优化西安市乡村旅游动力系统的策略。论文内容包括四部分。第一部分：提出研究背景、研究思路，梳理、总结国内外关于乡村旅游的研究动态。第二部分：为本论文研究的理论基础和现实基础。第三部分：为本论文的重点章节，主要研究乡村旅游发展动力系统的三个主要内容，即动力系统的结构、动力系统运行以及对动力系统进行仿真预测。第四部分：主要研究完善和优化乡村旅游动力系统的措施及本论文的研究结论。
主要结论：①乡村旅游发展动力系统主要包括需求、供给、媒体、支持保障和决策等五个子系统。论文运用系统科学的思维和方法，认为乡村旅游的发展是众多动力因子合力作用的结果，推动乡村旅游发展的动力系统应是一个可控的、开放的系统。根据结合国内外乡村旅游发展实践和理论研究成果，论文认为乡村旅游发展动力系统主要包括需求子系统、供给子系统、媒体子系统、支持保障子系统和决策子系统五个子系统，这五个子系统在乡村旅游发展动力系统中分别发挥不同作用。需求子系统承担市场拉动作用，供给子系统承担引导的作用，媒体子系统承担传动作用，支持保障子系统承担辅动作用，决策子系统承担推动作用。在这五个子系统中，需求子系统和供给子系统为驱动乡村旅游发展的源动力，它们与其他三个子系统相互影响、互相制约，形成合力共同推动乡村旅游动力系统的运行，为乡村旅游的可持续发展产生重要的作用。②西安市乡村旅游发展的四个主导动力因素，并在此基础上构建西安市乡村旅游发展动力系统模型。通过对国内外乡村旅游发展历程、特征等分析的基础上，从推动乡村旅游发展的源动力，即需求和供给两个子系统出发，构建了由5个因素层、14个指标组成的乡村旅游发展动力系统运行评价指标体系。以西安市10区（县）为例，依据所构建的评价指标体系，运用SPSS.19统计软件中的主成分分析法对西安市10区（县）2009年的乡村旅游发展状况进行纵向评价，其结果表明推动西安市乡村旅游发展的主导动力因素有四个，即资源动力因素、经济动力因素、农户参与动力因素和区位动力因素。在得出四个主导动力因素之后，构建西安市乡村旅游发展动力系统模型。③将西安市乡村旅游发展动力系统运行模式划分为四种类型：“农户驱动”动力模式、“经济驱动”动力模式、“区位+农户驱动”动力模式和“资源驱动”动力模式。④西安市乡村旅游发展动力系统仿真预测结果表明，西安市乡村旅游发展正处于快速的成长阶段，在未来的10年间其乡村旅游收入和乡村旅游景区面积将大幅度的增加。以乡村旅游收入和乡村旅游景区面积的发展作为预测对象，选取并确立影响乡村旅游发展的预测指标，运用BP神经网络模型、灰色系统GM(1,1)模型和MTALAB数学工程软件技术为理论和方法，以2006—2010年西安市乡村旅游发展数据资料为依据，对未来10年（2011—2020年）的西安市乡村旅游发展动力系统进行仿真预测，并建立仿真预测模型。⑤以对五个子系统的强化与优化构成西安市乡村旅游动力系统完善与优化的核心内容。通过对乡村旅游发展动力系统结构、动力系统运行和动力系统仿真预测三个部分的研究以及对西安市乡村旅游发展过程中存在的主要问题的分析，以可持续发展为目标，提出完善和优化西安市乡村旅游发展动力系统的措施,即强化需求子系统、提升供给子系统、优化决策子系统、构建支持子系统和完善媒体子系统等。
Rural tourism is the product of rural economic and tourism economic development. Inrecent years, with the rapid development of rural tourism in China, there has been rapidgrowth in the number of rural tourism with slow increase in quality; the blossom of ruraltourism products and content uniformity problems co-exist. How to achieve the sustainabledevelopment of rural tourism, accelerating the upgrade and innovation of rural tourism hasbecome the major issue of rural tourism. Previous studies have shown at home and abroad,one of the main approaches to promote the sustainable and healthy development of ruraltourism is to build up a long-term dynamic system of rural tourism development based on thenature, characteristics and law of the destination construction of rural tourism.
In this study, the systematic scientific research paradigm and methods have been used,combined with sustainable development theory, tourism life-cycle theory, system dynamicsand the core-periphery theory, etc. to explore the structure of dynamic system and operatingenvironment and mechanisms of rural tourism. At the same time, the simulation model ofdynamic system has been used to predict the tendency of rural tourism development in Xi’an,and the perfection and optimization strategy of rural tourism dynamic system of Xi’an havebeen discussed. The paper includes four parts. Part I proposing research background andprocedure, sorting and summarizing domestic and international research on the dynamics ofrural tourism. Part2are theoretical and practical foundation of this research. Part3is thefocus of the thesis, which mainly deal with the three major elements (the structure, operationand simulation prediction of dynamic system) of the research in rural tourism dynamic system.Part4put forward with the measures of improving and optimizing rural tourism dynamicsystem and the conclusions of this thesis.
The main conclusions:
(1) the dynamic system of rural tourism development mainly includes five subsystems:demand, supply, media, support and decision. Based on Using the systematic thinking andscientific method, the author believe the development of rural tourism is the sequence ofmany dynamic factors, and the dynamic system of accelerating rural tourism development iscontrollable and open. Based on practice and theoretical research of rural tourismdevelopment at home and abroad, the thesis believes that the dynamic system of rural tourismincludes five subsystems: demand subsystem, supply subsystem, media subsystem, support subsystem and decision subsystem, which play a different role in the dynamic system of ruraltourism development. These subsystems assume the function of market pull, guide,transmission, assistance and accelerating respectively, which make mutual influence andrestraint, and promote the function of dynamic system of rural tourism to benefit thesustainable development.
(2) There are four leading power factors promoting rural tourism development in Xi’an,Based on building the dynamic systematic model. Through analyzing the process andcharacteristics of rural tourism development, the author builds up an evaluation system ofdynamic system of rural tourism development, which consists of5element layers and14indicators. Taking the10counties in Xi’an as an example, using evaluation system and theprincipal component analysis method of statistical software SPSS.19evaluating the status quoof those ten counties, the result shows that there are four leading dynamic elementsaccelerating rural tourism development in Xi’an: resources, economic development, farmersinvolvement and location dynamics. On the basis of above four leading elements, we canbuild up the dynamic systematic model of rural tourism development in Xi’an.
(3) There are four modes of rural tourism development in Xi’an: farmer-driven dynamicmode, economic-driven dynamic mode, location&farmer-driven dynamic mode andresource-driven dynamic mode.
(4) The prediction of dynamic system of rural tourism development in Xi’an shows thatthe rural tourism development in Xi’an is at the fast-growing stage, and the income and scenicarea of rural tourism will significantly increase in the next10years. Taking the rural tourismincome and scenic area as prediction objects, selecting and determining the predicting indexesof effecting the rural tourism development, using BP neural network model, gray system GM(1,1) model and MATLAB mathematical theory and engineering software technology, theauthor made a simulation prediction of dynamic system of rural tourism development in Xi’anin the next10years and built up a simulation forecasting model based on the date of ruraltourism development in Xi’an from2006to2010.
(5) The enhancement and optimizing of five subsystems is the core content of dynamicsystem improvement of rural tourism development in Xi’an. Through the research of thedynamic systematic structure, operation and simulation prediction of rural tourismdevelopment, the core content of improving dynamic system of rural tourism in Xi’anincludes strengthening the demand subsystem, improving the supply subsystem, optimizingthe decision subsystem, building the supporting subsystem and perfecting the mediasubsystem.
本研究采用系统科学的研究范式与方法，结合可持续发展理论、旅游地生命周期理论、系统动力学理论、核心—边缘理论、利益相关者理论等，探讨乡村旅游的动力系统结构、乡村旅游动力系统运行环境与机制，运用BP神经网络模型和灰色系统GM(1,1)模型等预测西安市乡村旅游未来的发展趋势，并提出完善及优化西安市乡村旅游动力系统的策略。论文内容包括四部分。第一部分：提出研究背景、研究思路，梳理、总结国内外关于乡村旅游的研究动态。第二部分：为本论文研究的理论基础和现实基础。第三部分：为本论文的重点章节，主要研究乡村旅游发展动力系统的三个主要内容，即动力系统的结构、动力系统运行以及对动力系统进行仿真预测。第四部分：主要研究完善和优化乡村旅游动力系统的措施及本论文的研究结论。
主要结论：①乡村旅游发展动力系统主要包括需求、供给、媒体、支持保障和决策等五个子系统。论文运用系统科学的思维和方法，认为乡村旅游的发展是众多动力因子合力作用的结果，推动乡村旅游发展的动力系统应是一个可控的、开放的系统。根据结合国内外乡村旅游发展实践和理论研究成果，论文认为乡村旅游发展动力系统主要包括需求子系统、供给子系统、媒体子系统、支持保障子系统和决策子系统五个子系统，这五个子系统在乡村旅游发展动力系统中分别发挥不同作用。需求子系统承担市场拉动作用，供给子系统承担引导的作用，媒体子系统承担传动作用，支持保障子系统承担辅动作用，决策子系统承担推动作用。在这五个子系统中，需求子系统和供给子系统为驱动乡村旅游发展的源动力，它们与其他三个子系统相互影响、互相制约，形成合力共同推动乡村旅游动力系统的运行，为乡村旅游的可持续发展产生重要的作用。②西安市乡村旅游发展的四个主导动力因素，并在此基础上构建西安市乡村旅游发展动力系统模型。通过对国内外乡村旅游发展历程、特征等分析的基础上，从推动乡村旅游发展的源动力，即需求和供给两个子系统出发，构建了由5个因素层、14个指标组成的乡村旅游发展动力系统运行评价指标体系。以西安市10区（县）为例，依据所构建的评价指标体系，运用SPSS.19统计软件中的主成分分析法对西安市10区（县）2009年的乡村旅游发展状况进行纵向评价，其结果表明推动西安市乡村旅游发展的主导动力因素有四个，即资源动力因素、经济动力因素、农户参与动力因素和区位动力因素。在得出四个主导动力因素之后，构建西安市乡村旅游发展动力系统模型。③将西安市乡村旅游发展动力系统运行模式划分为四种类型：“农户驱动”动力模式、“经济驱动”动力模式、“区位+农户驱动”动力模式和“资源驱动”动力模式。④西安市乡村旅游发展动力系统仿真预测结果表明，西安市乡村旅游发展正处于快速的成长阶段，在未来的10年间其乡村旅游收入和乡村旅游景区面积将大幅度的增加。以乡村旅游收入和乡村旅游景区面积的发展作为预测对象，选取并确立影响乡村旅游发展的预测指标，运用BP神经网络模型、灰色系统GM(1,1)模型和MTALAB数学工程软件技术为理论和方法，以2006—2010年西安市乡村旅游发展数据资料为依据，对未来10年（2011—2020年）的西安市乡村旅游发展动力系统进行仿真预测，并建立仿真预测模型。⑤以对五个子系统的强化与优化构成西安市乡村旅游动力系统完善与优化的核心内容。通过对乡村旅游发展动力系统结构、动力系统运行和动力系统仿真预测三个部分的研究以及对西安市乡村旅游发展过程中存在的主要问题的分析，以可持续发展为目标，提出完善和优化西安市乡村旅游发展动力系统的措施,即强化需求子系统、提升供给子系统、优化决策子系统、构建支持子系统和完善媒体子系统等。
Rural tourism is the product of rural economic and tourism economic development. Inrecent years, with the rapid development of rural tourism in China, there has been rapidgrowth in the number of rural tourism with slow increase in quality; the blossom of ruraltourism products and content uniformity problems co-exist. How to achieve the sustainabledevelopment of rural tourism, accelerating the upgrade and innovation of rural tourism hasbecome the major issue of rural tourism. Previous studies have shown at home and abroad,one of the main approaches to promote the sustainable and healthy development of ruraltourism is to build up a long-term dynamic system of rural tourism development based on thenature, characteristics and law of the destination construction of rural tourism.
In this study, the systematic scientific research paradigm and methods have been used,combined with sustainable development theory, tourism life-cycle theory, system dynamicsand the core-periphery theory, etc. to explore the structure of dynamic system and operatingenvironment and mechanisms of rural tourism. At the same time, the simulation model ofdynamic system has been used to predict the tendency of rural tourism development in Xi’an,and the perfection and optimization strategy of rural tourism dynamic system of Xi’an havebeen discussed. The paper includes four parts. Part I proposing research background andprocedure, sorting and summarizing domestic and international research on the dynamics ofrural tourism. Part2are theoretical and practical foundation of this research. Part3is thefocus of the thesis, which mainly deal with the three major elements (the structure, operationand simulation prediction of dynamic system) of the research in rural tourism dynamic system.Part4put forward with the measures of improving and optimizing rural tourism dynamicsystem and the conclusions of this thesis.
The main conclusions:
(1) the dynamic system of rural tourism development mainly includes five subsystems:demand, supply, media, support and decision. Based on Using the systematic thinking andscientific method, the author believe the development of rural tourism is the sequence ofmany dynamic factors, and the dynamic system of accelerating rural tourism development iscontrollable and open. Based on practice and theoretical research of rural tourismdevelopment at home and abroad, the thesis believes that the dynamic system of rural tourismincludes five subsystems: demand subsystem, supply subsystem, media subsystem, support subsystem and decision subsystem, which play a different role in the dynamic system of ruraltourism development. These subsystems assume the function of market pull, guide,transmission, assistance and accelerating respectively, which make mutual influence andrestraint, and promote the function of dynamic system of rural tourism to benefit thesustainable development.
(2) There are four leading power factors promoting rural tourism development in Xi’an,Based on building the dynamic systematic model. Through analyzing the process andcharacteristics of rural tourism development, the author builds up an evaluation system ofdynamic system of rural tourism development, which consists of5element layers and14indicators. Taking the10counties in Xi’an as an example, using evaluation system and theprincipal component analysis method of statistical software SPSS.19evaluating the status quoof those ten counties, the result shows that there are four leading dynamic elementsaccelerating rural tourism development in Xi’an: resources, economic development, farmersinvolvement and location dynamics. On the basis of above four leading elements, we canbuild up the dynamic systematic model of rural tourism development in Xi’an.
(3) There are four modes of rural tourism development in Xi’an: farmer-driven dynamicmode, economic-driven dynamic mode, location&farmer-driven dynamic mode andresource-driven dynamic mode.
(4) The prediction of dynamic system of rural tourism development in Xi’an shows thatthe rural tourism development in Xi’an is at the fast-growing stage, and the income and scenicarea of rural tourism will significantly increase in the next10years. Taking the rural tourismincome and scenic area as prediction objects, selecting and determining the predicting indexesof effecting the rural tourism development, using BP neural network model, gray system GM(1,1) model and MATLAB mathematical theory and engineering software technology, theauthor made a simulation prediction of dynamic system of rural tourism development in Xi’anin the next10years and built up a simulation forecasting model based on the date of ruraltourism development in Xi’an from2006to2010.
(5) The enhancement and optimizing of five subsystems is the core content of dynamicsystem improvement of rural tourism development in Xi’an. Through the research of thedynamic systematic structure, operation and simulation prediction of rural tourismdevelopment, the core content of improving dynamic system of rural tourism in Xi’anincludes strengthening the demand subsystem, improving the supply subsystem, optimizingthe decision subsystem, building the supporting subsystem and perfecting the mediasubsystem.
引文
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