黄河三角洲高效生态经济区水安全评价研究
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摘要
水资源是一切发展的基础因子，而如今我们守着“水球”却出现了水短缺的局面，严重影响了我们的生产和生活，有效安全的利用水资源是当今全球关注的焦点。最近几年来，随着经济的发展，水资源缺乏成为了发展的“瓶颈”，针对我国这样一个发展大国而水资源严重缺乏的现状，必须采取客观的评估和有效的措施。中国三大三角洲之一的黄河三角洲，国务院2009年11月23日正式批复《黄河三角洲高效生态经济区发展规划》，上升为国家战略，那么要想发展好经济就必须解决水问题。
本文根据黄河三角洲高效生态经济区的现实状况进行了水安全评价研究，具体内容如下：
1.本文对于目前国内外水安全的研究的内容、方法等进行了详细的回顾。国外主要从区域角度、粮食、环境安全角度和供水能力角度来进行研究，研究内容广泛，研究方法主要是定性研究。国内侧重整体评价研究，主要从城市水安全、农村水安全、河流湖泊水安全和水环境安全研究，另外我国也进行了影响水安全的因子的研究，但是对于目前国际的前沿研究领域如绿水、蓝水等的研究尚处于起步阶段。
2.本文对黄河三角洲高效生态经济区的水资源现状进行了分析研究。黄河三角洲高效生态经济区水资源缺乏，多依赖黄河水，而黄河水由于超过其承载能力多次断流，虽然近几年加强了治理，但形势依然严峻。黄河三角洲高效生态经济区水资源开发利用面临诸多问题，海水入侵导致地下水受到威胁，地下漏斗面积加大，2009年无棣县、沾化县、昌邑市、寿光市和寒亭地区均有不同程度的海水入侵，比起2008年都有所增加；水污染现象严重，根据例行监测,黄河三角洲高效生态经济区内,几大河流一直处于超标状态，劣五类监测断面占的比例达到了70%左右，近5年来没有达到水质Ⅰ类和Ⅱ类的河流，超标现象十分严重。
3.文章采用熵值法赋权重，并用集对分析法进行了安全评价，选取了东营、滨州、莱州、寿光、昌邑和乐陵6市进行了2009年的水安全评价，结果可看出基本是处于临界安全级别，从水资源供需的评价因子来看，人均水资源量除昌邑市较多以外，其他均较少，尤其是乐陵市更是少，属于缺水型城市，这也表明了黄河三角洲高效生态经济区水安全不容乐观。
4.为了更好的反映东营市和滨州市水安全的动态变化，本文选取了具有代表性的26个指标，对2002-2009年八年的水安全动态变化进行研究，东营市水安全级别基本是处于临界安全级别，2002-2009年处于临界安全级别，但2006--2009东营市水安全与较安全级别也有很大的相关性，说明水安全有进一步的改善，这主要是开展了节水型社会和一些有利的节水、保护水资源的措施有关，努力降低水耗。滨州市2002-2009年水安全处于临界安全级别，2002-2003年虽然处于临界安全级别，但与临界安全级别相关性并不是很大，2009年则与较安全级别有了一定的相关性，因此，滨州市水安全发展是朝着较安全级别发展。
最后针对目前出现的问题采取一系列的措施，并展望了未来水安全形势。
Water resource is a foundation factor in development，and now we are faced withwater scarcity while living on this "water polo". This situation has been seriouslyaffecting our production and life, thus how to use water in a safe and effective wayhas become the fucus of the globe. In China of recent years, water scarcity has moreand more become a "bottleneck" along with the development of economy，for whichreason we must take objective assessment as well as urgent and effective measures todeal with this problem. Yellow River delta is one of China’s three big deltas. TheState Council formally approved "the Agenda of Development for an Efficient andEcological Yellow River Delta Development Zone " on November 23, 2009, andadvanced this agenda to the level of national strategy. To conclude, if economy wantsto be well developed, water problems must be solved.
This paper makes an evaluation of water safety condition in the Yellow Riverdelta development zone, and the specific details are as follows:
1. This paper makes a detailed review of research on and methods for watersafety home and abroad, and finds that foreign experts mainly do research focusing onthe angle of districts, food, environmental security and water supply capacity. Theresearch always involves extensive contents and the method adopted is mainlyqualitative. In comparison, domestic research focuses on an overall evaluation,studying security situations of urban water, rural water, rivers and lakes, and waterenvironment as a whole. Besides, demestic research also touches upon factorsaffecting water safety in our country, but for latest global studies, such as on greenwaters and blue waters, we are still in the initial stage.
2. The paper makes an analysis of the present water resource situation in YellowRiver delta efficient and ecological economic zone. Due to lack of adequate water,this area relies on water mainly from Yellow River, which however, has many timesstopped flowing because of its over carrying capacity. Though measures have beentaken to solve this problem in recent years, the condition is still quite severe.Exploitation of water resource in this zone is facing many problems: seawater intrusion is threatening underground water, and underground funnel areas areincreasing. As a result, in 2009, Wudi County , Zhanhua Country, Changyi City,Shouguang City and Hanting Regions have been faced with different degrees ofseawater intrusion, and the degree has increased compared with that of 2008; thephenomenon of water pollution is also quite serious. According to the routinemonitoring on Yellow River delta economic zone, a few major rivers have been inoverweight status, with proportion of non-flowing section around 70%. Within theserecent five years, no river has been detected to reach water quality of I and II classes.Flow monitoring also examined that exceeding phenomena are very serious as well.
3. This paper adopts the method of entropy weight empowerment, assesses theanalysis method, and makes an evaluation of water resource security in Dongying,Binzhou, Laizhou, Shouguang, Changyi and Leling in 2009. Results reveal thatbasically these cities are in a critical level of security. From evaluation factors ofsupply and demand for water resource, quantity of water per capita in these cities isquite scarce except that of Changyi. Faced with the least quantity of water, Leling isdegraded to the city with water shortage of cities, which also shows that the YellowRiver delta zone’s water security situation is not optimistic.
4. In order to respond to dynamic changes of water security in Dongying andBinzhou more efficiently, this paper selects the 26 representative indexes, andresearch on dynamic changes of water security for eight years, from 2002 to 2009.Results of this paper show that Dongying’s water security is on critical safety levelfrom 2002 to 2009, yet from 2006 to 2009 water security level and relative watersecurity level are in great correlation, indicating a further improvement in water safety,which is related to the carring out of several measures on developing a water-savingsociety and on saving and protecting water resource as well as on reducing waterconsumption. Results of the paper also reveal that water security of Binzhou is on acritical level from 2002 to 2009. Although on the critical level of security from 2002to 2003, security correlation is not very strong. Yet in 2009, water security level andrelative water security level appear to be in relevant correlation again, which showsBinzhou’s water security is developing in a secure and harmonious way.
Finally, this paper puts forward a series of measures according to the presentproblems, and makes predictions of water security situation in the future.
本文根据黄河三角洲高效生态经济区的现实状况进行了水安全评价研究，具体内容如下：
1.本文对于目前国内外水安全的研究的内容、方法等进行了详细的回顾。国外主要从区域角度、粮食、环境安全角度和供水能力角度来进行研究，研究内容广泛，研究方法主要是定性研究。国内侧重整体评价研究，主要从城市水安全、农村水安全、河流湖泊水安全和水环境安全研究，另外我国也进行了影响水安全的因子的研究，但是对于目前国际的前沿研究领域如绿水、蓝水等的研究尚处于起步阶段。
2.本文对黄河三角洲高效生态经济区的水资源现状进行了分析研究。黄河三角洲高效生态经济区水资源缺乏，多依赖黄河水，而黄河水由于超过其承载能力多次断流，虽然近几年加强了治理，但形势依然严峻。黄河三角洲高效生态经济区水资源开发利用面临诸多问题，海水入侵导致地下水受到威胁，地下漏斗面积加大，2009年无棣县、沾化县、昌邑市、寿光市和寒亭地区均有不同程度的海水入侵，比起2008年都有所增加；水污染现象严重，根据例行监测,黄河三角洲高效生态经济区内,几大河流一直处于超标状态，劣五类监测断面占的比例达到了70%左右，近5年来没有达到水质Ⅰ类和Ⅱ类的河流，超标现象十分严重。
3.文章采用熵值法赋权重，并用集对分析法进行了安全评价，选取了东营、滨州、莱州、寿光、昌邑和乐陵6市进行了2009年的水安全评价，结果可看出基本是处于临界安全级别，从水资源供需的评价因子来看，人均水资源量除昌邑市较多以外，其他均较少，尤其是乐陵市更是少，属于缺水型城市，这也表明了黄河三角洲高效生态经济区水安全不容乐观。
4.为了更好的反映东营市和滨州市水安全的动态变化，本文选取了具有代表性的26个指标，对2002-2009年八年的水安全动态变化进行研究，东营市水安全级别基本是处于临界安全级别，2002-2009年处于临界安全级别，但2006--2009东营市水安全与较安全级别也有很大的相关性，说明水安全有进一步的改善，这主要是开展了节水型社会和一些有利的节水、保护水资源的措施有关，努力降低水耗。滨州市2002-2009年水安全处于临界安全级别，2002-2003年虽然处于临界安全级别，但与临界安全级别相关性并不是很大，2009年则与较安全级别有了一定的相关性，因此，滨州市水安全发展是朝着较安全级别发展。
最后针对目前出现的问题采取一系列的措施，并展望了未来水安全形势。
Water resource is a foundation factor in development，and now we are faced withwater scarcity while living on this "water polo". This situation has been seriouslyaffecting our production and life, thus how to use water in a safe and effective wayhas become the fucus of the globe. In China of recent years, water scarcity has moreand more become a "bottleneck" along with the development of economy，for whichreason we must take objective assessment as well as urgent and effective measures todeal with this problem. Yellow River delta is one of China’s three big deltas. TheState Council formally approved "the Agenda of Development for an Efficient andEcological Yellow River Delta Development Zone " on November 23, 2009, andadvanced this agenda to the level of national strategy. To conclude, if economy wantsto be well developed, water problems must be solved.
This paper makes an evaluation of water safety condition in the Yellow Riverdelta development zone, and the specific details are as follows:
1. This paper makes a detailed review of research on and methods for watersafety home and abroad, and finds that foreign experts mainly do research focusing onthe angle of districts, food, environmental security and water supply capacity. Theresearch always involves extensive contents and the method adopted is mainlyqualitative. In comparison, domestic research focuses on an overall evaluation,studying security situations of urban water, rural water, rivers and lakes, and waterenvironment as a whole. Besides, demestic research also touches upon factorsaffecting water safety in our country, but for latest global studies, such as on greenwaters and blue waters, we are still in the initial stage.
2. The paper makes an analysis of the present water resource situation in YellowRiver delta efficient and ecological economic zone. Due to lack of adequate water,this area relies on water mainly from Yellow River, which however, has many timesstopped flowing because of its over carrying capacity. Though measures have beentaken to solve this problem in recent years, the condition is still quite severe.Exploitation of water resource in this zone is facing many problems: seawater intrusion is threatening underground water, and underground funnel areas areincreasing. As a result, in 2009, Wudi County , Zhanhua Country, Changyi City,Shouguang City and Hanting Regions have been faced with different degrees ofseawater intrusion, and the degree has increased compared with that of 2008; thephenomenon of water pollution is also quite serious. According to the routinemonitoring on Yellow River delta economic zone, a few major rivers have been inoverweight status, with proportion of non-flowing section around 70%. Within theserecent five years, no river has been detected to reach water quality of I and II classes.Flow monitoring also examined that exceeding phenomena are very serious as well.
3. This paper adopts the method of entropy weight empowerment, assesses theanalysis method, and makes an evaluation of water resource security in Dongying,Binzhou, Laizhou, Shouguang, Changyi and Leling in 2009. Results reveal thatbasically these cities are in a critical level of security. From evaluation factors ofsupply and demand for water resource, quantity of water per capita in these cities isquite scarce except that of Changyi. Faced with the least quantity of water, Leling isdegraded to the city with water shortage of cities, which also shows that the YellowRiver delta zone’s water security situation is not optimistic.
4. In order to respond to dynamic changes of water security in Dongying andBinzhou more efficiently, this paper selects the 26 representative indexes, andresearch on dynamic changes of water security for eight years, from 2002 to 2009.Results of this paper show that Dongying’s water security is on critical safety levelfrom 2002 to 2009, yet from 2006 to 2009 water security level and relative watersecurity level are in great correlation, indicating a further improvement in water safety,which is related to the carring out of several measures on developing a water-savingsociety and on saving and protecting water resource as well as on reducing waterconsumption. Results of the paper also reveal that water security of Binzhou is on acritical level from 2002 to 2009. Although on the critical level of security from 2002to 2003, security correlation is not very strong. Yet in 2009, water security level andrelative water security level appear to be in relevant correlation again, which showsBinzhou’s water security is developing in a secure and harmonious way.
Finally, this paper puts forward a series of measures according to the presentproblems, and makes predictions of water security situation in the future.
引文
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