增温和降水变化对半干旱区春小麦影响及作物布局对区域气候变化的响应研究
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摘要
通过大田模拟试验和长序列农业气象资料分析，研究了半干旱雨养农业区春小麦对温度升高和降水变化的响应规律；分析了气候变化对甘肃主要作物生长发育的影响及其气候变化对甘肃作物布局的影响。取得的主要结论有：
（1）春季增温会显著加快半干旱区春小麦出苗速率。降水减少显著缩短了对春小麦营养生长期和生殖生长期。气候变暖使冬小麦发育期提前，而棉花除停止生长期推迟以外其它生育期均提前。冬小麦越冬期-返青期、乳熟-成熟期和全生育期明显缩短。棉花播种期-五叶期缩短，五叶-现蕾、吐絮-停止生长期和全生育期呈现延长的趋势。
（2）增温和降水变化对拔节期春小麦株高无显著影响。增温和降水减少对灌浆期株高有极显著的影响。降水减少和增温的协同作用对春小麦地上干物质负面效应显著，而降水增加在一定程度上可以缓解这种影响。春小麦地下干物重随增温幅度的升高先增加后下降。
（3）在增加降水和水分不变的情况下，1℃增温均有利于拔节期春小麦叶片Pn的提高，而2-3℃增温均限制了光合作用，暖干化不利于拔节期光合的进行。增温和降水减少的交互作用显著阻碍了春小麦后期的光合作用，增温抑制光合速率,降水增加对增温条件下的光合作用具有补偿作用。在春小麦前期（拔节期）光合速率下降的主要原因是气孔因素；在春小麦后期（灌浆期期）造成光合速率下降的主要原因是非气孔因素。随着温度的升高春小麦拔节期水分利用效率（WUE）降低，其中以降水减少处理下降最为明显，而降水增加和降水不变的处理则不显著。在灌浆期，降水减少20%的情况下水分利用效率（WUE）随着温度的增加而降低；在降水不变和增加的情况下随着温度的增加先上升后下降，其拐点温度分别为1℃和2℃。
（4）随着增温幅度的增加春小麦潜在最大光化学量子效率（Fv/Fm）、实际光化学量子效率（ΦPSII）、光化学淬灭系数（qP）、电子传递速率（ETR）呈对数函数下降，降水减少处理下降更加明显。随着温度的增加春小麦NPQ先上升后下降，其拐点温度为增温2℃。降水量的增减均对春小麦荧光参数没有显著影响，说明在0-3℃增温幅度内，对降水增减20%表现不敏感。
（5）随着温度的升高春小麦叶片脯氨酸（Pro）含量和可溶性蛋白含量上升；可溶性糖含量随着温度的增加而下降。在同一温度条件下降水减少使春小麦叶片脯氨酸（Pro）含量上升，可溶性糖含量和可溶性蛋白含量随降水的减少而下降。在降水减少或不变的情况下随着温度的增加春小麦叶片SOD活性在下降，在降水增加的情况下SOD活性随着温度的升高现增加后下降，其拐点温度为增温1℃，而POD活性均下降。随着温度的上升春小麦叶片丙二醛MDA含量和质膜相对透性（RC）增加。
（6）降水减少和增温3℃组合春小麦穗粒数下降最为显著；在增温的条件下降水的变化对小麦千粒重有重要影响。随着温度的增加春小麦不孕小穗率呈现二次曲线上升，其中降水减少和增温3℃组合下不孕小穗率可达45%。最终导致春小麦产量随温度的增加而下降：在降水减少20%的情况下T1、T2和T3分别较对照下降-12.13%、-24.72%、-42.70%；在降水不变的情况下下降-8.37%、-15.10%、-21.82%；在降水增加20%的情况下下降-8.95%、-15.50%、-22.19%。冬小麦产量与越冬期间的最低气温显著正相关(R=0.67,P=0.023)，但与返青-孕穗和乳熟-成熟期间的最高气温显著负相关。冬小麦千粒重与六月最高气温可用多项式y=-0.336X2+15.848X-152.66(R2=0.4015)描述，当六月平均最高气温超过24℃时小麦千粒重开始下降。所以乳熟-成熟期间的极端高温是影响冬小麦产量的重要限制因子。冬季负积温和冬小麦越冬死亡率平均每10年减少74℃和2.4%，降水量是影响冬小麦气候产量的主导因素，生育期间降水每减少10mm，气候产量降低42.00kg/hm2。棉花产量与花前的平均最低气温、十月最低气温显著正相关，霜前花产量与十月最低气温显著相关。十月最低气温的变暖使棉花停止生长期推迟，有效的增加了棉花的干物质积累，从而提高了霜前花的产量。
（7）春小麦籽粒淀粉含量随温度的增加而下降；籽粒蛋白质含量随着温度的增加而上升。在降水减少的情景下蚜虫数量随着温度的升高而减少，在降水增加和不变的情景下随着温度的增加而先升高后下降。春小麦锈病发病率随着温度的升高而上升。
（8）气候变暖使干旱半干旱区春小麦适宜区缩小，不适宜区扩大；使半湿润高寒阴湿区春小麦适宜区扩大，不可种植区缩小；冬小麦最适宜和不适宜种植区面积缩小，适宜、次适宜和可种植区急剧扩大；马铃薯最适宜区和适宜区面积分别减小35%和3%，次适宜区和可种植区面积分别扩大18.5%和6.6%，不适宜区面积缩小2.0%；河西绿洲灌区和中部黄河支流灌区玉米最适宜种植区急剧扩大，适宜种植区缩小；河西绿洲灌区次适宜区缩小，中部黄河支流灌区扩大；河西绿洲灌可种植区变化不大，中部黄河支流灌区缩小；不适宜种植区缩小。在河东雨养农业区玉米最适宜种植区扩大，适宜种植区缩小，次适宜种植区扩大、可种植区缩小、不适宜种植区变化不大。
The regulations of spring wheat (TriticumaestivumL)response to precipitation changing andtemperature increasing were studied in this thesis based on field experiments and a long sequenceagro-meteorological datain semi-arid rainfed farming regions. Meanwhile, the impact of climatechanging on growing, developing and layout of main crops in Gansu Province were analyzed.The main results were as followed:
Emergence rate of spring wheat increased significantly with temperature increasing in thesemi-arid regions. The stages of vegetative growing and reproductive growing of spring wheatdecreased significantly with the precipitationdecreasing. The stages of springwheat were putforward with the global climate warming, and stages of cotton, except the stage of cessationgrowing. The periods of wintering stage-green stage, milky ripe stage-maturity stage and wholegrowing stage of spring wheat were shorten. The periods of sowing stage-five-leaf stage, five-leafstage-budding stage, spinning stage-cessation growing stage and whole growing stage of cottonwere prolonged.
Effects of temperature increasing and precipitation changing on height of spring wheat werenot significant at the jointing stage, but were significant at the filling stage. The cooperationeffects of precipitation decreasing and temperature increasingon aboveground dry matter ofspring wheat were negative, and precipitation increasing could alleviate this negative effect. Theunderground dry matter of spring wheat increased and then decreased with temperatureincreasing.
The Pn of spring wheat leaves increased when temperature increased about1degree, but not2-3degree. Meanwhile, hot and drought conditions were not good for photosynthesis duringthejointing stage.The interactions of temperature increasing and precipitation decreasing restrainedthe photosynthesis of spring wheat during late stages. And also temperature increasing restrainedthe photosynthesis, but precipitation increasing increased photosynthesis. The stomataon leaveswas main factor for the decline photosynthetic of spring wheat during jointing stage, but not thestomata after the filling stage. The water use efficiency (WUE) of spring wheat decreased withthe temperature increasing during the jointing stage, and effects was obvious as the precipitationdecreasing, but not obvious when precipitation increasing or unchanging. WUE decreased withthe temperatureincreasingwhen precipitation decreased about20%. WUE increased at first and then decreased with the temperatureincreasingwhen precipitation increasing or unchanging. Andinflection point temperatures were1℃and2℃, respectively.
The potential maximal photochemical efficiency (Fv/Fm), the actual photochemicalquantum efficiency (ΦPSII), photochemical quenching (qP) and electron transport rate (ETR)decreased in logarithmic function withthe temperature increasing. And effects were obvious asthe precipitation decreasing. NPQ increased at first and then decreased with thetemperatureincreasing, and the inflection point temperature was2℃. Precipitation had notsignificantly effects on fluorescence parameters. So it can be concluded that response of wheat tothe precipitationwas not sensitive as the precipitationdecreased about20%duringthe temperaturechanged about0-3°C.
With the temperature increasing, the proline (Pro) contentand soluble protein contentofspring wheat leaves increased, but the soluble sugar contentdecreased. At the sametemperature,the Procontentincreased with the precipitation increasing, but the soluble sugarcontentand soluble protein content decreased. The SOD activity of spring wheat leaves decreasedwith the temperature increasing under the conditions of precipitationincreasing or unchanging.The SOD activity of spring wheat leaves increased at first and then decreased with thetemperature increasing under the conditions of precipitationincreasing, and the inflection pointtemperature was1℃, but SOD activity decreased all times. The malondialdeyde (MDA) contentand the relative permeability of the plasma membrane (RC) of spring wheat increased withthetemperature increasing.
The cooperation effects of precipitation decreasing and temperature increasingabout3℃ondecrease of number of grain of spring wheat were significant. And effects of precipitationdecreasing on grain weight of spring wheat were important under condition of the temperatureincreasing. The rate of sterility spike of spring wheat increased with the temperature increasing inquadratic. And rate of sterility spike of spring wheat was45%under conditions of theprecipitation decreasing and the temperature increased at3°C, leading to grain yields of springwheatdecreased with the temperature increasing. Compared with control, decreases of grainyields were-12.13%,-24.72%and-42.70%, respectively, in temperature increased about1°C,1°C and3°C under the precipitation decreasing about20%. While decreases were-8.37%,-15.10%an-21.82%, respectively, under the precipitation unchanging, and were-8.95%, -15.50%and-22.19%, respectively, under the precipitation increasing about20%. Correlationbetween thegrain yield of winter wheat and the minimum temperature in winter was positive(R=0.67, P=0.023), but correlation between thegrain yield of winter wheat and the maximumtemperature in June was negative during the periods of the green stage-booting stage and themilky ripe stage–maturity stage.The relations between grain weight of winter wheat and themaximum temperature in June was y=-0.336X2+15.848X-152.66(R2=0.4015). The grain weightof winter wheat started to decrease as the maximum temperature in June is more than24℃. Themaximum temperature in June was the main factor which constrained grain forming during theperiods of the milky ripe stage-maturity stage. The accumulated temperature in winter willdecrease about74℃and death rate of the winter wheat will be2.4%in10years.Theprecipitation was the key factor which affected grain yields of winter wheat. And decrease ofgrain yields was42.00kg ha-1with precipitation reduce about10mmduring the wheat growingseasons.The relations between the yields of cotton and the average minimum temperature beforeflowering and in October were positive. The flower production before frost had a significantrelation with the minimum temperature in October.With minimum temperature increasing inOctober, the growing stage of cotton was prolonged, and dry matter and the flower production ofcottonwere increased.
With the temperature increasing, the starch content of spring wheat decreased, but the grainprotein contentof spring wheat increased. The number of aphids decreased with temperatureincreasing under conditions of precipitation decreasing. The number of aphids increased at firstand then decreased with temperature increasing under conditions of precipitation increasing orunchanging. The rate of rust of spring wheat increased with the temperature increasing.
With climate warming, the suitable areas for spring wheat planting are becoming small inarid and semiarid regions, and are becoming big in humid and semi-humid regions. The mostsuitable and unsuitable areas of winter wheat are became small, and the areas of suitable, lesssuitable and cultivable are becoming big.The decrease of the most suitable, most suitable andunsuitable areas were35%,3%and2%, respectively, for potato production, and the increase oftheless suitable and cultivable areas were18.5%and18.5%, respectively. The area of the mostsuitable areas is becoming big, but the suitable area is becomingsmallfor maize productionin Hexioasis irrigation region and in the middlebasin of the yellow river irrigation region. The less suitable areas is becoming small in Hexi oasis irrigationregion and is becoming big in themiddlebasin of the yellow river irrigation region. The cultivable area is unchangeablein Hexioasis irrigationregionand in becoming small in the middlebasin of the yellow river irrigationregion. And the unsuitable areas are becoming smallin both regions. The most suitable and lessareas is becoming big, but the suitable and cultivable areas are becoming small, and theunsuitable area is unchangeable for maize production in the rainfed farming inHedong regions.
（1）春季增温会显著加快半干旱区春小麦出苗速率。降水减少显著缩短了对春小麦营养生长期和生殖生长期。气候变暖使冬小麦发育期提前，而棉花除停止生长期推迟以外其它生育期均提前。冬小麦越冬期-返青期、乳熟-成熟期和全生育期明显缩短。棉花播种期-五叶期缩短，五叶-现蕾、吐絮-停止生长期和全生育期呈现延长的趋势。
（2）增温和降水变化对拔节期春小麦株高无显著影响。增温和降水减少对灌浆期株高有极显著的影响。降水减少和增温的协同作用对春小麦地上干物质负面效应显著，而降水增加在一定程度上可以缓解这种影响。春小麦地下干物重随增温幅度的升高先增加后下降。
（3）在增加降水和水分不变的情况下，1℃增温均有利于拔节期春小麦叶片Pn的提高，而2-3℃增温均限制了光合作用，暖干化不利于拔节期光合的进行。增温和降水减少的交互作用显著阻碍了春小麦后期的光合作用，增温抑制光合速率,降水增加对增温条件下的光合作用具有补偿作用。在春小麦前期（拔节期）光合速率下降的主要原因是气孔因素；在春小麦后期（灌浆期期）造成光合速率下降的主要原因是非气孔因素。随着温度的升高春小麦拔节期水分利用效率（WUE）降低，其中以降水减少处理下降最为明显，而降水增加和降水不变的处理则不显著。在灌浆期，降水减少20%的情况下水分利用效率（WUE）随着温度的增加而降低；在降水不变和增加的情况下随着温度的增加先上升后下降，其拐点温度分别为1℃和2℃。
（4）随着增温幅度的增加春小麦潜在最大光化学量子效率（Fv/Fm）、实际光化学量子效率（ΦPSII）、光化学淬灭系数（qP）、电子传递速率（ETR）呈对数函数下降，降水减少处理下降更加明显。随着温度的增加春小麦NPQ先上升后下降，其拐点温度为增温2℃。降水量的增减均对春小麦荧光参数没有显著影响，说明在0-3℃增温幅度内，对降水增减20%表现不敏感。
（5）随着温度的升高春小麦叶片脯氨酸（Pro）含量和可溶性蛋白含量上升；可溶性糖含量随着温度的增加而下降。在同一温度条件下降水减少使春小麦叶片脯氨酸（Pro）含量上升，可溶性糖含量和可溶性蛋白含量随降水的减少而下降。在降水减少或不变的情况下随着温度的增加春小麦叶片SOD活性在下降，在降水增加的情况下SOD活性随着温度的升高现增加后下降，其拐点温度为增温1℃，而POD活性均下降。随着温度的上升春小麦叶片丙二醛MDA含量和质膜相对透性（RC）增加。
（6）降水减少和增温3℃组合春小麦穗粒数下降最为显著；在增温的条件下降水的变化对小麦千粒重有重要影响。随着温度的增加春小麦不孕小穗率呈现二次曲线上升，其中降水减少和增温3℃组合下不孕小穗率可达45%。最终导致春小麦产量随温度的增加而下降：在降水减少20%的情况下T1、T2和T3分别较对照下降-12.13%、-24.72%、-42.70%；在降水不变的情况下下降-8.37%、-15.10%、-21.82%；在降水增加20%的情况下下降-8.95%、-15.50%、-22.19%。冬小麦产量与越冬期间的最低气温显著正相关(R=0.67,P=0.023)，但与返青-孕穗和乳熟-成熟期间的最高气温显著负相关。冬小麦千粒重与六月最高气温可用多项式y=-0.336X2+15.848X-152.66(R2=0.4015)描述，当六月平均最高气温超过24℃时小麦千粒重开始下降。所以乳熟-成熟期间的极端高温是影响冬小麦产量的重要限制因子。冬季负积温和冬小麦越冬死亡率平均每10年减少74℃和2.4%，降水量是影响冬小麦气候产量的主导因素，生育期间降水每减少10mm，气候产量降低42.00kg/hm2。棉花产量与花前的平均最低气温、十月最低气温显著正相关，霜前花产量与十月最低气温显著相关。十月最低气温的变暖使棉花停止生长期推迟，有效的增加了棉花的干物质积累，从而提高了霜前花的产量。
（7）春小麦籽粒淀粉含量随温度的增加而下降；籽粒蛋白质含量随着温度的增加而上升。在降水减少的情景下蚜虫数量随着温度的升高而减少，在降水增加和不变的情景下随着温度的增加而先升高后下降。春小麦锈病发病率随着温度的升高而上升。
（8）气候变暖使干旱半干旱区春小麦适宜区缩小，不适宜区扩大；使半湿润高寒阴湿区春小麦适宜区扩大，不可种植区缩小；冬小麦最适宜和不适宜种植区面积缩小，适宜、次适宜和可种植区急剧扩大；马铃薯最适宜区和适宜区面积分别减小35%和3%，次适宜区和可种植区面积分别扩大18.5%和6.6%，不适宜区面积缩小2.0%；河西绿洲灌区和中部黄河支流灌区玉米最适宜种植区急剧扩大，适宜种植区缩小；河西绿洲灌区次适宜区缩小，中部黄河支流灌区扩大；河西绿洲灌可种植区变化不大，中部黄河支流灌区缩小；不适宜种植区缩小。在河东雨养农业区玉米最适宜种植区扩大，适宜种植区缩小，次适宜种植区扩大、可种植区缩小、不适宜种植区变化不大。
The regulations of spring wheat (TriticumaestivumL)response to precipitation changing andtemperature increasing were studied in this thesis based on field experiments and a long sequenceagro-meteorological datain semi-arid rainfed farming regions. Meanwhile, the impact of climatechanging on growing, developing and layout of main crops in Gansu Province were analyzed.The main results were as followed:
Emergence rate of spring wheat increased significantly with temperature increasing in thesemi-arid regions. The stages of vegetative growing and reproductive growing of spring wheatdecreased significantly with the precipitationdecreasing. The stages of springwheat were putforward with the global climate warming, and stages of cotton, except the stage of cessationgrowing. The periods of wintering stage-green stage, milky ripe stage-maturity stage and wholegrowing stage of spring wheat were shorten. The periods of sowing stage-five-leaf stage, five-leafstage-budding stage, spinning stage-cessation growing stage and whole growing stage of cottonwere prolonged.
Effects of temperature increasing and precipitation changing on height of spring wheat werenot significant at the jointing stage, but were significant at the filling stage. The cooperationeffects of precipitation decreasing and temperature increasingon aboveground dry matter ofspring wheat were negative, and precipitation increasing could alleviate this negative effect. Theunderground dry matter of spring wheat increased and then decreased with temperatureincreasing.
The Pn of spring wheat leaves increased when temperature increased about1degree, but not2-3degree. Meanwhile, hot and drought conditions were not good for photosynthesis duringthejointing stage.The interactions of temperature increasing and precipitation decreasing restrainedthe photosynthesis of spring wheat during late stages. And also temperature increasing restrainedthe photosynthesis, but precipitation increasing increased photosynthesis. The stomataon leaveswas main factor for the decline photosynthetic of spring wheat during jointing stage, but not thestomata after the filling stage. The water use efficiency (WUE) of spring wheat decreased withthe temperature increasing during the jointing stage, and effects was obvious as the precipitationdecreasing, but not obvious when precipitation increasing or unchanging. WUE decreased withthe temperatureincreasingwhen precipitation decreased about20%. WUE increased at first and then decreased with the temperatureincreasingwhen precipitation increasing or unchanging. Andinflection point temperatures were1℃and2℃, respectively.
The potential maximal photochemical efficiency (Fv/Fm), the actual photochemicalquantum efficiency (ΦPSII), photochemical quenching (qP) and electron transport rate (ETR)decreased in logarithmic function withthe temperature increasing. And effects were obvious asthe precipitation decreasing. NPQ increased at first and then decreased with thetemperatureincreasing, and the inflection point temperature was2℃. Precipitation had notsignificantly effects on fluorescence parameters. So it can be concluded that response of wheat tothe precipitationwas not sensitive as the precipitationdecreased about20%duringthe temperaturechanged about0-3°C.
With the temperature increasing, the proline (Pro) contentand soluble protein contentofspring wheat leaves increased, but the soluble sugar contentdecreased. At the sametemperature,the Procontentincreased with the precipitation increasing, but the soluble sugarcontentand soluble protein content decreased. The SOD activity of spring wheat leaves decreasedwith the temperature increasing under the conditions of precipitationincreasing or unchanging.The SOD activity of spring wheat leaves increased at first and then decreased with thetemperature increasing under the conditions of precipitationincreasing, and the inflection pointtemperature was1℃, but SOD activity decreased all times. The malondialdeyde (MDA) contentand the relative permeability of the plasma membrane (RC) of spring wheat increased withthetemperature increasing.
The cooperation effects of precipitation decreasing and temperature increasingabout3℃ondecrease of number of grain of spring wheat were significant. And effects of precipitationdecreasing on grain weight of spring wheat were important under condition of the temperatureincreasing. The rate of sterility spike of spring wheat increased with the temperature increasing inquadratic. And rate of sterility spike of spring wheat was45%under conditions of theprecipitation decreasing and the temperature increased at3°C, leading to grain yields of springwheatdecreased with the temperature increasing. Compared with control, decreases of grainyields were-12.13%,-24.72%and-42.70%, respectively, in temperature increased about1°C,1°C and3°C under the precipitation decreasing about20%. While decreases were-8.37%,-15.10%an-21.82%, respectively, under the precipitation unchanging, and were-8.95%, -15.50%and-22.19%, respectively, under the precipitation increasing about20%. Correlationbetween thegrain yield of winter wheat and the minimum temperature in winter was positive(R=0.67, P=0.023), but correlation between thegrain yield of winter wheat and the maximumtemperature in June was negative during the periods of the green stage-booting stage and themilky ripe stage–maturity stage.The relations between grain weight of winter wheat and themaximum temperature in June was y=-0.336X2+15.848X-152.66(R2=0.4015). The grain weightof winter wheat started to decrease as the maximum temperature in June is more than24℃. Themaximum temperature in June was the main factor which constrained grain forming during theperiods of the milky ripe stage-maturity stage. The accumulated temperature in winter willdecrease about74℃and death rate of the winter wheat will be2.4%in10years.Theprecipitation was the key factor which affected grain yields of winter wheat. And decrease ofgrain yields was42.00kg ha-1with precipitation reduce about10mmduring the wheat growingseasons.The relations between the yields of cotton and the average minimum temperature beforeflowering and in October were positive. The flower production before frost had a significantrelation with the minimum temperature in October.With minimum temperature increasing inOctober, the growing stage of cotton was prolonged, and dry matter and the flower production ofcottonwere increased.
With the temperature increasing, the starch content of spring wheat decreased, but the grainprotein contentof spring wheat increased. The number of aphids decreased with temperatureincreasing under conditions of precipitation decreasing. The number of aphids increased at firstand then decreased with temperature increasing under conditions of precipitation increasing orunchanging. The rate of rust of spring wheat increased with the temperature increasing.
With climate warming, the suitable areas for spring wheat planting are becoming small inarid and semiarid regions, and are becoming big in humid and semi-humid regions. The mostsuitable and unsuitable areas of winter wheat are became small, and the areas of suitable, lesssuitable and cultivable are becoming big.The decrease of the most suitable, most suitable andunsuitable areas were35%,3%and2%, respectively, for potato production, and the increase oftheless suitable and cultivable areas were18.5%and18.5%, respectively. The area of the mostsuitable areas is becoming big, but the suitable area is becomingsmallfor maize productionin Hexioasis irrigation region and in the middlebasin of the yellow river irrigation region. The less suitable areas is becoming small in Hexi oasis irrigationregion and is becoming big in themiddlebasin of the yellow river irrigation region. The cultivable area is unchangeablein Hexioasis irrigationregionand in becoming small in the middlebasin of the yellow river irrigationregion. And the unsuitable areas are becoming smallin both regions. The most suitable and lessareas is becoming big, but the suitable and cultivable areas are becoming small, and theunsuitable area is unchangeable for maize production in the rainfed farming inHedong regions.
引文
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