建立中国—瑞士自由贸易区的经济效应分析
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摘要
经济全球化是当今世界经济发展的显著性标志之一,随着国际间经济联系与合作的日益紧密,世界各国都在努力适应并利用这一机会加入到多样的区域经济合作组织中。作为经济全球化及区域经济一体化的重要动力,尤其是在WTO多边谈判长期受阻的背景下,自由贸易区的建立成为各国参与经济全球化的首要战略决策,区域贸易协定的激增正深刻的改变着世界经济的格局。
中国作为最大的发展中国家及世界第四大经济体,发展自由贸易区的条件日益成熟。瑞士是世界上经济高度发达的国家之一,长期奉行对外开放的经济发展战略。两国自建交以来,就保持了良好的经济关系。近几年来,随着两国经贸联系的日益加强,双方深入进行经济合作的意愿越来越强烈。尤其是在全球金融危机及中欧关系出现波折的关键时刻,温家宝总理于2009年1月份访问瑞士及欧洲地区,双方高层宣布将进行自贸区的联合可行性研究,如今在中国商务部和瑞士经济部的共同努力下,两国联合可行性研究已经于11月启动。
中瑞自贸区的建立,不仅有利于促进两国经贸关系的往来,而且必将给中国与整个欧洲地区的经济合作与发展带来深远影响。而且作为发展中国家与发达国家之间建立的自由贸易区,可以为中国今后与更多的发达国家签订双边自由贸易协定及其发展战略提供有益的参考和宝贵的经验借鉴,从而保证中国积极地参与到经济全球化的进程中,并从中获益。
在此背景下,本文以中国瑞士建立自由贸易区的经济效应为研究对象,结合国际贸易学、国际经济学以及计量经济学的相关理论,运用定性与定量相结合的分析方法,系统的考察了两国建立自贸区的可行性与经济效应,并提出相关对策。
全文分为六章,内容如下：
第一章为前言,简要的分析了本文的研究背景和意义、国内外研究现状、研究内容和方法,以及本文的创新点和不足。
第二章为建立中国—瑞士自由贸易区的理论基础。本章内容主要论述了文章理论基础,包括国际上有关自由贸易区的经典理论和一般性理论,为下文研究两国自贸区的经济效应做好理论铺垫。
第三章为建立中国—瑞士自由贸易区的可行性研究。本章主要从中瑞经济互补性、两国经贸发展现状、两国贸易潜力预测及构建双边自贸区所面临的挑战四个角度分析了中瑞两国建立自由贸易区的可能性,为两国建立自贸区奠定现实基础。
第四章为建立中国—瑞士自由贸易区的经济效应分析。本章主要从理论分析、模拟分析两个角度进行研究。其中,理论分析部分包含了静态效应和动态效应分析,模拟分析部分则对两国建立自贸区后的贸易创造效应进行了估算,并论述了两国建立自贸区的现实意义。
第五章为中国在构建中瑞自由贸易区中的对策。本章主要从自贸区的构建中应遵循的原则与步骤、服务贸易领域、投资合作以及相关自贸区的构建等角度提出中国相应的对策,以实现共赢局面。
第六章为全文的结论本文在以往学术成果的基础之上,实现了以下方面的创新：首先,选取的国家具有前沿性,突破以往主要侧重于中国与区域组织的自贸区研究,为日后进行双边自由贸易协定的研究起到示范作用；其次,在对自贸区可行性研究上,主要从实证角度对贸易现状进行研究,在贸易潜力上通过建立中国与前50名贸易伙伴的贸易引力模型进行预测；最后,在经济效应的分析上分别从局部均衡、一般均衡、建立模拟方案等多角度进行了研究,使分析结果更加准确。
Economic globalization is one of the significant features of the development of modern economy. As the international economic ties becoming close,all the countries are trying to take this opportunity and take part in various regional economic organizations. As the important driving force for the economic integration and globalization,especially under the background of the long-blocked WTO multilateral negotiations,the establishment of Free Trade Area has becoming the primary strategic decision for the countries to participate in globalization. The increasing regional agreements are changing the global economic pattern profoundly.
As the largest developing country and the fourth-largest economy in the world, China has the sophisticated conditions to establish free trade areas. Switzerland is one of the most-developed countries in the world and always pursuing the policy of opening up. The two countries maintain good economic relations since the establishment of diplomatic relations. Along with the increasingly strengthened trade and economic relationships, the two sides are more likely to have deeper cooperations. At the critical moment when the global financial crisis appeared and the relationship between China and Europe turned around,Premier Wen jiabao visited Switzerland and Europe in January,2009,and the two governments announced a joint study on FTA feasibility. With the effort of Chinese Ministry of Commerce and Swiss Ministry of Economic Affairs,the joint feasibility study has been launched in November.
The establishment of FTA for China and Switzerland will not only promote economic trade between the two countries,and also bring great and profound effects on the economic cooperation for China and the whole Europe.Also,as the FTA between developing and developed countries,it will provide a useful reference and valuable experience for China to sign bilateral free trade agreement with more developed countries,and ensure that China can take active part in the economic globalization and benefit from it.
In this context,this thesis studies the economic effect on the FTA between China and Switzerland. As well as the theory of international trade,international economics and econometrics,by means of qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis,this thesis investigates the feasibility and economic effects of Sino-Swiss FTA and proposes countermeasures.
This thesis has six chapters,as follows:
Chapter 1 is the thesis introduction of the background and the meaning of this research. A review of the related studies abroad and home,the research approaches and methods and the innovation and shortage in this thesis are introduced.
Chapter 2 is the theoretical basis for the establishment of Sino-Swiss FTA. This chapter mainly discusses the theoretical basis of this thesis,including the classical theory and general theory of FTA in the world.They provide theoretical groundwork for the following research on the economic effects of FTA between two countries.
Chapter3 is the feasibility study on the establishment of Sino-Swiss FTA. This chapter analyses the feasibility of the FTA from four perspectives:the economic complementarity,the bilateral trade and economic development situation,the forecast on the economic potential and the challenges to the FTA,and establishes the reality basis for the FTA.
Chapter4 is the analysis on the economic effects of Sino-Swiss FTA. This chapter includes two parts:theoretical analysis and simulation analysis. Among them,the theory part consists static effect and dynamic effect,and the trade creation effect after the FTA has been estimated in the simulation part.
Chapter5 is the countermeasures for China in the establishment of the FTA.These countermeasures consist of several parts:the principles and steps that should be followed;the measures in the service trade and investment cooperation and the establishment of other FTAs,so that the two countries can achieve the win-win situation.
Chapter6 is the conclusions of the whole text.
Based on the academic achievement,the thesis has several innovation:First of all,the selected country is cutting-edge,the research changes the view of former researches focusing primarily on the FTA between China and regional organization and plays an an exemplary role for the research on the bilateral FTA in the future. Secondly,this thesis uses empirical methods to study the feasibility of the current economic situation,and forecasts the trade potential through the establishment of trade gravity model of China and its top 50 partners. Finally, the analysis of the economic effects consists of various perspectives:the partial equilibrium, general equilibrium,and especially the establishment of simulation programs to get more accurate results.
中国作为最大的发展中国家及世界第四大经济体,发展自由贸易区的条件日益成熟。瑞士是世界上经济高度发达的国家之一,长期奉行对外开放的经济发展战略。两国自建交以来,就保持了良好的经济关系。近几年来,随着两国经贸联系的日益加强,双方深入进行经济合作的意愿越来越强烈。尤其是在全球金融危机及中欧关系出现波折的关键时刻,温家宝总理于2009年1月份访问瑞士及欧洲地区,双方高层宣布将进行自贸区的联合可行性研究,如今在中国商务部和瑞士经济部的共同努力下,两国联合可行性研究已经于11月启动。
中瑞自贸区的建立,不仅有利于促进两国经贸关系的往来,而且必将给中国与整个欧洲地区的经济合作与发展带来深远影响。而且作为发展中国家与发达国家之间建立的自由贸易区,可以为中国今后与更多的发达国家签订双边自由贸易协定及其发展战略提供有益的参考和宝贵的经验借鉴,从而保证中国积极地参与到经济全球化的进程中,并从中获益。
在此背景下,本文以中国瑞士建立自由贸易区的经济效应为研究对象,结合国际贸易学、国际经济学以及计量经济学的相关理论,运用定性与定量相结合的分析方法,系统的考察了两国建立自贸区的可行性与经济效应,并提出相关对策。
全文分为六章,内容如下：
第一章为前言,简要的分析了本文的研究背景和意义、国内外研究现状、研究内容和方法,以及本文的创新点和不足。
第二章为建立中国—瑞士自由贸易区的理论基础。本章内容主要论述了文章理论基础,包括国际上有关自由贸易区的经典理论和一般性理论,为下文研究两国自贸区的经济效应做好理论铺垫。
第三章为建立中国—瑞士自由贸易区的可行性研究。本章主要从中瑞经济互补性、两国经贸发展现状、两国贸易潜力预测及构建双边自贸区所面临的挑战四个角度分析了中瑞两国建立自由贸易区的可能性,为两国建立自贸区奠定现实基础。
第四章为建立中国—瑞士自由贸易区的经济效应分析。本章主要从理论分析、模拟分析两个角度进行研究。其中,理论分析部分包含了静态效应和动态效应分析,模拟分析部分则对两国建立自贸区后的贸易创造效应进行了估算,并论述了两国建立自贸区的现实意义。
第五章为中国在构建中瑞自由贸易区中的对策。本章主要从自贸区的构建中应遵循的原则与步骤、服务贸易领域、投资合作以及相关自贸区的构建等角度提出中国相应的对策,以实现共赢局面。
第六章为全文的结论本文在以往学术成果的基础之上,实现了以下方面的创新：首先,选取的国家具有前沿性,突破以往主要侧重于中国与区域组织的自贸区研究,为日后进行双边自由贸易协定的研究起到示范作用；其次,在对自贸区可行性研究上,主要从实证角度对贸易现状进行研究,在贸易潜力上通过建立中国与前50名贸易伙伴的贸易引力模型进行预测；最后,在经济效应的分析上分别从局部均衡、一般均衡、建立模拟方案等多角度进行了研究,使分析结果更加准确。
Economic globalization is one of the significant features of the development of modern economy. As the international economic ties becoming close,all the countries are trying to take this opportunity and take part in various regional economic organizations. As the important driving force for the economic integration and globalization,especially under the background of the long-blocked WTO multilateral negotiations,the establishment of Free Trade Area has becoming the primary strategic decision for the countries to participate in globalization. The increasing regional agreements are changing the global economic pattern profoundly.
As the largest developing country and the fourth-largest economy in the world, China has the sophisticated conditions to establish free trade areas. Switzerland is one of the most-developed countries in the world and always pursuing the policy of opening up. The two countries maintain good economic relations since the establishment of diplomatic relations. Along with the increasingly strengthened trade and economic relationships, the two sides are more likely to have deeper cooperations. At the critical moment when the global financial crisis appeared and the relationship between China and Europe turned around,Premier Wen jiabao visited Switzerland and Europe in January,2009,and the two governments announced a joint study on FTA feasibility. With the effort of Chinese Ministry of Commerce and Swiss Ministry of Economic Affairs,the joint feasibility study has been launched in November.
The establishment of FTA for China and Switzerland will not only promote economic trade between the two countries,and also bring great and profound effects on the economic cooperation for China and the whole Europe.Also,as the FTA between developing and developed countries,it will provide a useful reference and valuable experience for China to sign bilateral free trade agreement with more developed countries,and ensure that China can take active part in the economic globalization and benefit from it.
In this context,this thesis studies the economic effect on the FTA between China and Switzerland. As well as the theory of international trade,international economics and econometrics,by means of qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis,this thesis investigates the feasibility and economic effects of Sino-Swiss FTA and proposes countermeasures.
This thesis has six chapters,as follows:
Chapter 1 is the thesis introduction of the background and the meaning of this research. A review of the related studies abroad and home,the research approaches and methods and the innovation and shortage in this thesis are introduced.
Chapter 2 is the theoretical basis for the establishment of Sino-Swiss FTA. This chapter mainly discusses the theoretical basis of this thesis,including the classical theory and general theory of FTA in the world.They provide theoretical groundwork for the following research on the economic effects of FTA between two countries.
Chapter3 is the feasibility study on the establishment of Sino-Swiss FTA. This chapter analyses the feasibility of the FTA from four perspectives:the economic complementarity,the bilateral trade and economic development situation,the forecast on the economic potential and the challenges to the FTA,and establishes the reality basis for the FTA.
Chapter4 is the analysis on the economic effects of Sino-Swiss FTA. This chapter includes two parts:theoretical analysis and simulation analysis. Among them,the theory part consists static effect and dynamic effect,and the trade creation effect after the FTA has been estimated in the simulation part.
Chapter5 is the countermeasures for China in the establishment of the FTA.These countermeasures consist of several parts:the principles and steps that should be followed;the measures in the service trade and investment cooperation and the establishment of other FTAs,so that the two countries can achieve the win-win situation.
Chapter6 is the conclusions of the whole text.
Based on the academic achievement,the thesis has several innovation:First of all,the selected country is cutting-edge,the research changes the view of former researches focusing primarily on the FTA between China and regional organization and plays an an exemplary role for the research on the bilateral FTA in the future. Secondly,this thesis uses empirical methods to study the feasibility of the current economic situation,and forecasts the trade potential through the establishment of trade gravity model of China and its top 50 partners. Finally, the analysis of the economic effects consists of various perspectives:the partial equilibrium, general equilibrium,and especially the establishment of simulation programs to get more accurate results.
引文
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⑤张庆艳.经济的互补性、竞争性、大国战略与自由贸易区.黑河学刊,2005(6)：15-18
⑥陈诗一,阴之春.中国建立自由贸易区的动态经济效应分析——长期均衡和短期调整.世界经济与政治论坛,2008(3)：47-57
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⑩杨捷,单文婷.中国与欧盟和东盟的贸易特点及影响因素比较——基于引力模型的实证分析.国际贸易问题,2007(11)：21-24
11 马剑虹,张伯伟,张子平.东北亚自由贸易区三方博弈的纳什均衡解.当代财经,2008(7)：57-61
12 陈淑华.中俄建立自由贸易区的积极效应分析.西伯利亚研究,2008(2)：18-22
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14 蔡春林.现互利共赢的新平台——建立中冰、中挪、中新、中澳等自由贸易区对我国水产养殖业的影响及其应对策略.国际贸易,2008(3)：38-41
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28 http://ccn.mofcom.gov.cn/spbg/show.php?id=5935
29 李玉举.发展中国家参与区域经济一体化：兼论中国的战略选择和安排.北京：中国市场出版社,2008,108-112
30 Swiss Federal Statistical Office:Statistical Data on Switzerland 2009
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36 世界经济年鉴编辑委员会.世界经济年鉴(2008-2009).北京：经济科学出版社,2009
37 李玉举.发展中国家参与区域经济一体化：兼论中国的战略选择和安排.北京：中国市场出版社,2008.129-130
38 Tinbergen J. Shaping the world economy:Suggestion for an International Economic Policy. New York:The Twentieth Century Fund,1962
39 Poyhonen, Pentti.. A Tentative Model for the Volume of Trade Between Countries. Weltirtschafliches Archive,1963
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41 张海森.中国与澳大利亚建立自由贸易区研究.北京：对外经济贸易大学出版社,2007.84～85.
42 http://www.bfs.admin.ch/bfs/portal/en/index.html
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44 J.Viner. The Customs Unions Issue. New York, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace,1950.
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46 罗伯特.J.凯伯.国际经济学(原毅军等).北京：机械工业出版社,2002.75-80
49 沈璟璟.中国—东盟自由贸易区贸易效应研究：[硕士学位论文].苏州：苏州大学世界经济学,2007
50 宫占奎,刘晨阳.APEC走向亚太自由贸易区问题研究.天津：南开大学出版社,2009,57-62
51 贸易抑制效应(Trade Suppression Effect):即关税同盟对外关税壁垒另原先从国外进口的廉价商品被国内商品所替代.
52 樊莹.国际区域一体化的经济效应.北京：中国经济出版社,2005.42～43.
53 胡俊芳.中日韩自由贸易区贸易效果的实证分析：[硕士学位论文].上海：复旦大学国际贸易学,2007
54 宫占奎,刘晨阳.APEC走向亚太自由贸易区问题研究.天津：南开大学出版社,2009.198-199
55 樊莹.国际区域一体化的经济效应.北京：中国经济出版社,2005.313～314.
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