我国区域发展模式的比较与评价研究
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摘要
本文的主要内容是对我国代表性的区域发展模式的特色、形成机制、发展趋势、绩效等进行比较与评价。回答区域发展模式的各自特色是什么,其相互间的差异是什么,这些特色与差异是如何形成与发展变化的,以及区域发展模式间的差异性与趋同性到底是在扩大还是在缩小等问题,并对不同区域经济社会发展的环境代价进行比较分析。
论文将三个代表性的区域发展模式作为主要的研究对象,这三个模式分别是温州模式、苏南模式、珠江模式,鉴于这些模式所涉及到的区域与范围本身有一定的争议性,同时模式的内涵也是发展变化的,但为了将研究具体化,本文在前人研究对各模式的定义和区域划分的基础上,分别选择2～4个城市作为每种模式的代表性城市。在数据收集上,主要是从各种统计年鉴、国家统计局网站以及Wind金融数据库、中经网数据库等多个渠道获取数据进行研究。
文章的研究方法主要采用阐释主义的研究方法,目的是理论建构以及得出一些观察的结论,而非从理论出发,给出假设,然后运用数据验证所做出的假设,文章的目的是寻找各区域发展模式的特色与发展变化性,并从中寻找其可能的原因与机理,因此文章更多地采用案例分析与比较方法,更多地采用统计中的描述统计方法,更多地是采用归纳法,从众多的现象与数据中归纳与总结出一般规律及特征。
通过研究,文章得到以下一些结论:
1、各个区域发展模式之间有着各自的特色。论文收集了三个代表性的区域发展模式的九个样本城市,并对反映经济结构的六个指标的数据进行统计分析,发现不仅区域模式间有着较大的差异性,而且即使是同属于一个区域发展模式的城市之间,也有着明显的差异性。也就是说,不仅区域发展模式是有特色的,而且现有区域发展模式内部也是不一致的;
2、区域发展模式是发展变化的。论文通过对上面所述的代表性区域的代表性城市时间序列的数据进行分析,发现有不少城市在时间序列上这些数据的相关性呈现性较大的波动性,这说明同一城市在其发展历程中经历了较大的变化。
3、区域发展模式的形成与发展变化的动力可能是多方面的。从定性资料分析与描述统计的统计量的数值来看,可能的原因有:区域或者是城市的历史文化、地理区位、居民动机与行为、中央与地方政府政策、地方政府间的相互学习与竞争等都可能是导致区域发展模式的形成与发展变化。
4、三个典型的区域发展模式在民营经济的发展方面表现出各自的特色。温州模式在民营经济的发展方面,其主要的动力来自于本地居民的强烈的创业动机,辅之以政府的支持;珠江模式在民营经济的发展方面则主要得益于改革开放所带来的巨大的商业机会的驱动,再辅之以政府的政策;苏南模式则打上了强烈的政府干预色彩,其发展过程有明显的先抑后扬的阶段性,招商引资与产业集群引力导致的外来企业进入是其民营经济发展的重要特色。
5、区域发展模式间的发展变化既有保持差异性的一面,也有逐步趋同的一面。论文主要是运用十多个反映区域发展模式特色的指标,以城市与区域间在每个指标上的欧式距离在时间序列上的变化来反映到底在这个指标上它们是趋同了,还是差异扩大了。统计分析的结果显示,这些区域发展模式之间,有的指标的距离缩小了,但另外一些指标的距离又扩大了,这说明模式之间既有趋同性的一面,又有呈现新的差异性的特色的一面,其原因可能是多方面的,地方政府间的相互学习与各自探索可能是重要的原因之一。
6、区域发展的环境成本效率的比较,东部高于中西部地区。论文在这一部分研究中所选择的研究对象是以省份为研究单位,主要是因为数据收集的原因,也是出于相对效率评价比较的需要。论文以环境成本效率为研究角度,即以实现单位经济增长所付出的环境成本作比较,研究发现我国在经济发展的过程中,各个省份与区域在经济发展的环境成本效率方面都是不断提高的,环境成本效率与人均GDP之间有着显著的正相关关系。
未来的研究展望:区域发展模式中涉及到的每个单个的侧面进行深度的研究,比如外资、进出口、企业结构、政府作用、中央政策的影响、人力资本等等;对区域发展模式的评价的进一步研究,目前只是从环境成本效率的角度,还可以研究区域发展的能源成本、区域发展的可持续性、区域创新能力比较等等。
This dissertation made a great effort to compare and evaluate the characteristics, formation mechanism, development trend and performance, which belong to the several China's representative region patters. It looks for the answers of what is the individual characteristic of region develop pattern, what is the disparity between them, how did these characteristics and disparity formed, developed and changed, and the gap between these region patterns development disparity or similarity is widening or shrinking. It also compared and evaluated the environment cost for different regional economic social development.
Three representative regional developmental patterns had been chosen for the main research objects, which are Wenzhou developmental pattern, Southern Jiangsu developmental pattern and Pearl Delta developmental pattern. As it is very difficulty to get an agreement for these regions' districts and scopes, which is also developing and changing, and this dissertation chose several representative cities for each pattern as it representation. In data collection, most of them come from various statistical almanacs, National Statistic Bureau website, WIND financial database and China Economic Information Network.
It takes interpretivism for its main research methods, which can be used to realize theory-bulding and find some conclusion by observation, instead of making a hypothesis from theory then improved it by data. The purpose of this dissertation is to find out the characteristic and development trend of each regional developmental pattern, and analyze the possible reason and mechanism, so a lot of case analysis and comparison method, descriptive statistic method and induction method had been used in it, to conclude some rules and characteristics from large mount phenomenal and data.
After research, some conclusions had been got as follows:
1. Each regional developmental pattern has its own characteristic. The dissertation had collect information from three representative regional developmental pattern's nine sample cities, statistic and analyze the six index which stands for the economic structure. The conclusion shows that, the obvious disparity not only existed between the different regional patterns, but also appeared in the same region's different cities. That is to say, not only the regional developmental pattern has characteristic, but the disparity also existed innerly the same regional developmental pattern.
2. The regional developmental pattern is developing and changing. The dissertation made a time sequence analysis on the former mentioned cities, and found that many data correlation on the time sequence of these cities appears great fluctuation, which represent the great change of the same city during its development process.
3. The drives of the regional development patterns' formation and development and changing may be omnifarious. From the analysis of nature determined information and the statistics' value, the possible reasons are: Regional or city's historic culture, geographical position, residents' motivation and activities, central and local governments' policy and the inter learning and competition between the local government. All of these could lead to the regional developmental patterns' formation and development and change.
4. Three typical regional developmental patterns also appeared their own characteristic on non-public sector economic development. For Wenzhou developmental pattern, its driver mainly came from the local residences' strong business incentive and the support of the government policy. And the Pearl Delta developmental pattern was benefit from the great business opportunity brought by the reform and opening up movement, of course also the government policy. While for Southern Jiangsu developmental pattern, the government interruption had played an important role on its development, which represents obvious first prohibition then promotion phenomenon. The foreign enterprise's coming due to the investor invitation and industry distributing was the important feature of its non-public economic development.
5. The development and change of the regional developmental pattern hold keeping diversities on one hand, and increasingly trend to be convergent on the other. Above ten indexes, which stand for the characteristics of regional developmental pattern, has been used. By the changing of the cities and regions Euclid distance on each index in time sequence, the trend of being shrink or widening in gap could be found out. The result of the statistics analysis tells that, among these regional developmental patterns, the gap on some indexes is shrinking, while on others is widening. These show that both similarity and disparity are coexisted in the regional developmental pattern. The reason could be omnifarious, the inter-learning between local governments and their own exploration could be one of the most important reasons.
6. In the comparison of original developmental environmental cost efficiency, the eastern is higher than the western. The dissertation had chosen providence as research unit for this part, largely for the convenience of getting data. It took environment cost efficiency as research point, which is comparison the environment cost for every unit economic growth. The conclusion tells that during the country's economic development process, the environment cost efficiency of every providence and region is constantly increasing, environment cost efficiency has obvious positive correlation with per capital GDP.
Future research can be: Deeping research of every profile involved in the regional developmental pattern, such as foreign fund, import and export, enterprise structure, government effect, central government policy influence, HR capital and so on. And the further research of the regional development pattern's evaluation. Besides the environment cost efficiency used in this dissertation, the regional developmental energy cost, development continue and creative ability comparison and so on could also been took into account.
论文将三个代表性的区域发展模式作为主要的研究对象,这三个模式分别是温州模式、苏南模式、珠江模式,鉴于这些模式所涉及到的区域与范围本身有一定的争议性,同时模式的内涵也是发展变化的,但为了将研究具体化,本文在前人研究对各模式的定义和区域划分的基础上,分别选择2～4个城市作为每种模式的代表性城市。在数据收集上,主要是从各种统计年鉴、国家统计局网站以及Wind金融数据库、中经网数据库等多个渠道获取数据进行研究。
文章的研究方法主要采用阐释主义的研究方法,目的是理论建构以及得出一些观察的结论,而非从理论出发,给出假设,然后运用数据验证所做出的假设,文章的目的是寻找各区域发展模式的特色与发展变化性,并从中寻找其可能的原因与机理,因此文章更多地采用案例分析与比较方法,更多地采用统计中的描述统计方法,更多地是采用归纳法,从众多的现象与数据中归纳与总结出一般规律及特征。
通过研究,文章得到以下一些结论:
1、各个区域发展模式之间有着各自的特色。论文收集了三个代表性的区域发展模式的九个样本城市,并对反映经济结构的六个指标的数据进行统计分析,发现不仅区域模式间有着较大的差异性,而且即使是同属于一个区域发展模式的城市之间,也有着明显的差异性。也就是说,不仅区域发展模式是有特色的,而且现有区域发展模式内部也是不一致的;
2、区域发展模式是发展变化的。论文通过对上面所述的代表性区域的代表性城市时间序列的数据进行分析,发现有不少城市在时间序列上这些数据的相关性呈现性较大的波动性,这说明同一城市在其发展历程中经历了较大的变化。
3、区域发展模式的形成与发展变化的动力可能是多方面的。从定性资料分析与描述统计的统计量的数值来看,可能的原因有:区域或者是城市的历史文化、地理区位、居民动机与行为、中央与地方政府政策、地方政府间的相互学习与竞争等都可能是导致区域发展模式的形成与发展变化。
4、三个典型的区域发展模式在民营经济的发展方面表现出各自的特色。温州模式在民营经济的发展方面,其主要的动力来自于本地居民的强烈的创业动机,辅之以政府的支持;珠江模式在民营经济的发展方面则主要得益于改革开放所带来的巨大的商业机会的驱动,再辅之以政府的政策;苏南模式则打上了强烈的政府干预色彩,其发展过程有明显的先抑后扬的阶段性,招商引资与产业集群引力导致的外来企业进入是其民营经济发展的重要特色。
5、区域发展模式间的发展变化既有保持差异性的一面,也有逐步趋同的一面。论文主要是运用十多个反映区域发展模式特色的指标,以城市与区域间在每个指标上的欧式距离在时间序列上的变化来反映到底在这个指标上它们是趋同了,还是差异扩大了。统计分析的结果显示,这些区域发展模式之间,有的指标的距离缩小了,但另外一些指标的距离又扩大了,这说明模式之间既有趋同性的一面,又有呈现新的差异性的特色的一面,其原因可能是多方面的,地方政府间的相互学习与各自探索可能是重要的原因之一。
6、区域发展的环境成本效率的比较,东部高于中西部地区。论文在这一部分研究中所选择的研究对象是以省份为研究单位,主要是因为数据收集的原因,也是出于相对效率评价比较的需要。论文以环境成本效率为研究角度,即以实现单位经济增长所付出的环境成本作比较,研究发现我国在经济发展的过程中,各个省份与区域在经济发展的环境成本效率方面都是不断提高的,环境成本效率与人均GDP之间有着显著的正相关关系。
未来的研究展望:区域发展模式中涉及到的每个单个的侧面进行深度的研究,比如外资、进出口、企业结构、政府作用、中央政策的影响、人力资本等等;对区域发展模式的评价的进一步研究,目前只是从环境成本效率的角度,还可以研究区域发展的能源成本、区域发展的可持续性、区域创新能力比较等等。
This dissertation made a great effort to compare and evaluate the characteristics, formation mechanism, development trend and performance, which belong to the several China's representative region patters. It looks for the answers of what is the individual characteristic of region develop pattern, what is the disparity between them, how did these characteristics and disparity formed, developed and changed, and the gap between these region patterns development disparity or similarity is widening or shrinking. It also compared and evaluated the environment cost for different regional economic social development.
Three representative regional developmental patterns had been chosen for the main research objects, which are Wenzhou developmental pattern, Southern Jiangsu developmental pattern and Pearl Delta developmental pattern. As it is very difficulty to get an agreement for these regions' districts and scopes, which is also developing and changing, and this dissertation chose several representative cities for each pattern as it representation. In data collection, most of them come from various statistical almanacs, National Statistic Bureau website, WIND financial database and China Economic Information Network.
It takes interpretivism for its main research methods, which can be used to realize theory-bulding and find some conclusion by observation, instead of making a hypothesis from theory then improved it by data. The purpose of this dissertation is to find out the characteristic and development trend of each regional developmental pattern, and analyze the possible reason and mechanism, so a lot of case analysis and comparison method, descriptive statistic method and induction method had been used in it, to conclude some rules and characteristics from large mount phenomenal and data.
After research, some conclusions had been got as follows:
1. Each regional developmental pattern has its own characteristic. The dissertation had collect information from three representative regional developmental pattern's nine sample cities, statistic and analyze the six index which stands for the economic structure. The conclusion shows that, the obvious disparity not only existed between the different regional patterns, but also appeared in the same region's different cities. That is to say, not only the regional developmental pattern has characteristic, but the disparity also existed innerly the same regional developmental pattern.
2. The regional developmental pattern is developing and changing. The dissertation made a time sequence analysis on the former mentioned cities, and found that many data correlation on the time sequence of these cities appears great fluctuation, which represent the great change of the same city during its development process.
3. The drives of the regional development patterns' formation and development and changing may be omnifarious. From the analysis of nature determined information and the statistics' value, the possible reasons are: Regional or city's historic culture, geographical position, residents' motivation and activities, central and local governments' policy and the inter learning and competition between the local government. All of these could lead to the regional developmental patterns' formation and development and change.
4. Three typical regional developmental patterns also appeared their own characteristic on non-public sector economic development. For Wenzhou developmental pattern, its driver mainly came from the local residences' strong business incentive and the support of the government policy. And the Pearl Delta developmental pattern was benefit from the great business opportunity brought by the reform and opening up movement, of course also the government policy. While for Southern Jiangsu developmental pattern, the government interruption had played an important role on its development, which represents obvious first prohibition then promotion phenomenon. The foreign enterprise's coming due to the investor invitation and industry distributing was the important feature of its non-public economic development.
5. The development and change of the regional developmental pattern hold keeping diversities on one hand, and increasingly trend to be convergent on the other. Above ten indexes, which stand for the characteristics of regional developmental pattern, has been used. By the changing of the cities and regions Euclid distance on each index in time sequence, the trend of being shrink or widening in gap could be found out. The result of the statistics analysis tells that, among these regional developmental patterns, the gap on some indexes is shrinking, while on others is widening. These show that both similarity and disparity are coexisted in the regional developmental pattern. The reason could be omnifarious, the inter-learning between local governments and their own exploration could be one of the most important reasons.
6. In the comparison of original developmental environmental cost efficiency, the eastern is higher than the western. The dissertation had chosen providence as research unit for this part, largely for the convenience of getting data. It took environment cost efficiency as research point, which is comparison the environment cost for every unit economic growth. The conclusion tells that during the country's economic development process, the environment cost efficiency of every providence and region is constantly increasing, environment cost efficiency has obvious positive correlation with per capital GDP.
Future research can be: Deeping research of every profile involved in the regional developmental pattern, such as foreign fund, import and export, enterprise structure, government effect, central government policy influence, HR capital and so on. And the further research of the regional development pattern's evaluation. Besides the environment cost efficiency used in this dissertation, the regional developmental energy cost, development continue and creative ability comparison and so on could also been took into account.
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