机场终端区容量动态预测方法研究
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摘要
本文主要针对恶劣天气影响下的机场终端区容量预测问题进行了系统、深入地研究。恶劣天气是造成航班延误和交通容量不确定的主要因素,也是危害飞行安全的一个重要方面。将因天气原因造成的容量损失降低到最低,对当前民航运输发展具有非常重要和现实的意义。首先,本文较系统地介绍了机场跑道容量和终端区容量的定义、它们的容量评估模型及影响容量的诸多因素,还介绍了终端区空域结构和一般管制过程。其次,本文将马尔可夫模型应用到天气模型规划中,使用马尔可夫决策过程来进行飞机避让危险天气区域的路径规划计算,并阐述了路径规划的实际限制约束,以及对来自气象部门气象雷达的天气信息的应用处理。再次,本文介绍并引入了终端区进离场航班优化排序算法,在前述路径规划算法理论和航班优化排序算法基础上开发了机场终端区容量动态预测系统。
最后,本文针对目前的上海终端区多机场状况—浦东、虹桥两大机场,分别在模拟的天气情况下进行了机场容量和终端区容量的预测,实例验证了该模型的正确性及系统的可行性。
In this paper ,an airport terminal airspace capacity dynamic estimation problem was studied systematically and deeply ,which was influenced by the inclement weather gravely on the safety and normal operation of civil aviation. Inclement weather is the main factor to result in flight delay, air traffic capacity uncertainty and serious flight unsafety. Firstly this article has systematically introduced terminal and runway’s capacity definition, their capacity evaluation model and various limiting factors, also terminal airspace structure and control procedure was interpreted. Then the Markov model was applied into weather model programming and we used Markov Decision Procedure(MDP) to calculate the weather-avoiding rerouting. Meanwhile the practical route programming limits and the operation on weather information from meteorology department were discussed. This article also has introduced the Terminal Capacity Dynamic Estimation System based on the Markov weather model theory, and the optimizing arithmetic for the aircrafts queue sorting.
At last, this paper took the terminal airspace with Hongqiao International Airport and Pudong International Airport for example, evaluated the capacity of the airports and the airspace based on the simulated weather condition. It validated the model’s feasibility and correctness.
最后,本文针对目前的上海终端区多机场状况—浦东、虹桥两大机场,分别在模拟的天气情况下进行了机场容量和终端区容量的预测,实例验证了该模型的正确性及系统的可行性。
In this paper ,an airport terminal airspace capacity dynamic estimation problem was studied systematically and deeply ,which was influenced by the inclement weather gravely on the safety and normal operation of civil aviation. Inclement weather is the main factor to result in flight delay, air traffic capacity uncertainty and serious flight unsafety. Firstly this article has systematically introduced terminal and runway’s capacity definition, their capacity evaluation model and various limiting factors, also terminal airspace structure and control procedure was interpreted. Then the Markov model was applied into weather model programming and we used Markov Decision Procedure(MDP) to calculate the weather-avoiding rerouting. Meanwhile the practical route programming limits and the operation on weather information from meteorology department were discussed. This article also has introduced the Terminal Capacity Dynamic Estimation System based on the Markov weather model theory, and the optimizing arithmetic for the aircrafts queue sorting.
At last, this paper took the terminal airspace with Hongqiao International Airport and Pudong International Airport for example, evaluated the capacity of the airports and the airspace based on the simulated weather condition. It validated the model’s feasibility and correctness.
引文
[1] 中国投资咨询网,2006-2007 年中国机场业分析及投资咨询报告(上中下卷),2006.11
[2] Bowen E.G.,Pearcey T.,Delays in the flow of air traffic. J.R. Aeronautics. 1948,Vol.52:251-258
[3] Harris R.M.,Models for Runway Capacity Analysis,The Mitre Corporation Technical Report MTR-4102,Washington,D.C.,1969:1-94
[4] G.F.Newwell,Airport capacity and delays. Transporation Science,1979,Vol.13,No.3:201-241
[5] David A.Lee,Caroline Nelson,Gerald Shapiro,The Aviation System Analysis Capability, Airport Capacity and Delay Models,NASA/CR-1998-207659,B-1-B-14
[6] R.S.Ratner,A methodology for evaluating the capacity of air traffic control systems. FAA-RD-70-69,1970:1-175
[7] Milan Janic, Vojin Tosic, Enroute sector capacity model. Transportation Science, Novermber 1991, Vol.25, No.4:215-224
[8] David K.Schmidt. A queuing analysis of the air traffic controller’s work load. IEEE Transactions on systems, man, and cybernetics, June 1978,Vol. Smc-8, No.6:492-498
[9] Noriyasu Tofukuji,An Enroute ATC Simulation Experiment for Sector Capacity Estimation,IEEE Transaction on Control Systems Technology,1993
[10] Saleh A.Mumayiz,Airport-Airspace Simulations for Capacity Evaluation.Transportation Research Circular,Number E-C035,January 9,2001,7-26
[11] 刘 松, 美国机场及空域容量评估概况,国际交流,2003.3
[12] Dou Long, Richard Kula & Berta Fernandez, Integrating LMINET With TAAM and SIMMOD, NASA/CR-2001- 210875,2001.7
[13] 刘 松,机场空中交通容量估计系统研究,南京航空航天大学硕士研究生论文,1999.3:1-76
[14] 张志龙,终端区空中交通容量估计系统研究,南京航空航天大学硕士论文,1999.3:1-63
[15] 蒋 兵,空域评估模型与方法研究,南京航空航天大学硕士论文,2002.1
[16] 黄卫芳,北京首都国际机场空中交通容量评估系统,南京航空航天大学硕士论文,2003.1
[17] 黄 真,多机场终端区容量评估系统,南京航空航天大学硕士论文,2006.1
[18] 胡明华,空中交通流量管理理论,南京航空航天大学,2001.10:12-24
[19] 黄宇华,空域评估方法研究及其系统设计,南京航空航天大学硕士论文,2004.1
[20] Inniss, T. R. , “Stochastic Models for the Estimation of Airport Arrival Capacity Distributions,” PhD dissertation, University of Maryland, 2000
[21] 陈勇,曹义华,终端区容量评估基本概念和方法,中国民航飞行学院学报,2005.1,Vol 16,No.1
[22] 何光勤,朱代武,目视与仪表飞行程序设计,四川:中国民用航空飞行学院,1993
[23] A. Nilim, L. El Ghaoui, and V. Duong. Robust dynamic routing of aircraft under uncertainty. In Proc. of the 21st Digital Avionics Systems Conference, Irvine, Califonia, 2002.
[24] A. Nilim, L. El Ghaoui, V. Duong, and M. Hansen. Trajectory-based air traffic management (tb-atm) under weather uncertainty. In Proc. of the Fourth International Air Traffic Management R&D Seminar ATM, SantaFe, New Mexico, 2001.
[25] 黄嘉佑,气象统计分析与预报方法,气象出版社,1990.1:355-348
[26] Krozel, J., Changkil Joseph S.B. Mitchell, “Estimating Time of Arrival In Heavy Weather Conditions,” AIAA Guidance, Navigation, and Control Con., New Orleans, LA, Aug., 1999.
[27] Joseph Prete,Joseph S.B.Mitchell, Safe Routing of Multiple Aircraft Flows in the Presence of Time-varing Weather Data, AIAA Guidance,Navigation,and Control Conference and Exhibit 16-19 August,2004,Province,Rhode Island
[28] 候俊杰,深入浅出MFC第二版,华中科技大学出版社,2002.3
[29] 徐振刚,邓刚,中文Access 2003应用学习捷径,科学出版社,2004.2
[30] Krozel, J., Weidner, T., and Hunter, G., “Terminal Area Guidance Incorporating Heavy Weather,” AIAA Guidance, Navigation, and Control Con., New Orleans, LA, Aug., 1997.
[31] 中国民用航空总局,中国民航空中交通管制规则(中国民航总局86号令),1999.7
[32] 中国民用航空总局,航空器机场运行最低标准的制定与实施规定(中国民航总局98号令),2001.2
[2] Bowen E.G.,Pearcey T.,Delays in the flow of air traffic. J.R. Aeronautics. 1948,Vol.52:251-258
[3] Harris R.M.,Models for Runway Capacity Analysis,The Mitre Corporation Technical Report MTR-4102,Washington,D.C.,1969:1-94
[4] G.F.Newwell,Airport capacity and delays. Transporation Science,1979,Vol.13,No.3:201-241
[5] David A.Lee,Caroline Nelson,Gerald Shapiro,The Aviation System Analysis Capability, Airport Capacity and Delay Models,NASA/CR-1998-207659,B-1-B-14
[6] R.S.Ratner,A methodology for evaluating the capacity of air traffic control systems. FAA-RD-70-69,1970:1-175
[7] Milan Janic, Vojin Tosic, Enroute sector capacity model. Transportation Science, Novermber 1991, Vol.25, No.4:215-224
[8] David K.Schmidt. A queuing analysis of the air traffic controller’s work load. IEEE Transactions on systems, man, and cybernetics, June 1978,Vol. Smc-8, No.6:492-498
[9] Noriyasu Tofukuji,An Enroute ATC Simulation Experiment for Sector Capacity Estimation,IEEE Transaction on Control Systems Technology,1993
[10] Saleh A.Mumayiz,Airport-Airspace Simulations for Capacity Evaluation.Transportation Research Circular,Number E-C035,January 9,2001,7-26
[11] 刘 松, 美国机场及空域容量评估概况,国际交流,2003.3
[12] Dou Long, Richard Kula & Berta Fernandez, Integrating LMINET With TAAM and SIMMOD, NASA/CR-2001- 210875,2001.7
[13] 刘 松,机场空中交通容量估计系统研究,南京航空航天大学硕士研究生论文,1999.3:1-76
[14] 张志龙,终端区空中交通容量估计系统研究,南京航空航天大学硕士论文,1999.3:1-63
[15] 蒋 兵,空域评估模型与方法研究,南京航空航天大学硕士论文,2002.1
[16] 黄卫芳,北京首都国际机场空中交通容量评估系统,南京航空航天大学硕士论文,2003.1
[17] 黄 真,多机场终端区容量评估系统,南京航空航天大学硕士论文,2006.1
[18] 胡明华,空中交通流量管理理论,南京航空航天大学,2001.10:12-24
[19] 黄宇华,空域评估方法研究及其系统设计,南京航空航天大学硕士论文,2004.1
[20] Inniss, T. R. , “Stochastic Models for the Estimation of Airport Arrival Capacity Distributions,” PhD dissertation, University of Maryland, 2000
[21] 陈勇,曹义华,终端区容量评估基本概念和方法,中国民航飞行学院学报,2005.1,Vol 16,No.1
[22] 何光勤,朱代武,目视与仪表飞行程序设计,四川:中国民用航空飞行学院,1993
[23] A. Nilim, L. El Ghaoui, and V. Duong. Robust dynamic routing of aircraft under uncertainty. In Proc. of the 21st Digital Avionics Systems Conference, Irvine, Califonia, 2002.
[24] A. Nilim, L. El Ghaoui, V. Duong, and M. Hansen. Trajectory-based air traffic management (tb-atm) under weather uncertainty. In Proc. of the Fourth International Air Traffic Management R&D Seminar ATM, SantaFe, New Mexico, 2001.
[25] 黄嘉佑,气象统计分析与预报方法,气象出版社,1990.1:355-348
[26] Krozel, J., Changkil Joseph S.B. Mitchell, “Estimating Time of Arrival In Heavy Weather Conditions,” AIAA Guidance, Navigation, and Control Con., New Orleans, LA, Aug., 1999.
[27] Joseph Prete,Joseph S.B.Mitchell, Safe Routing of Multiple Aircraft Flows in the Presence of Time-varing Weather Data, AIAA Guidance,Navigation,and Control Conference and Exhibit 16-19 August,2004,Province,Rhode Island
[28] 候俊杰,深入浅出MFC第二版,华中科技大学出版社,2002.3
[29] 徐振刚,邓刚,中文Access 2003应用学习捷径,科学出版社,2004.2
[30] Krozel, J., Weidner, T., and Hunter, G., “Terminal Area Guidance Incorporating Heavy Weather,” AIAA Guidance, Navigation, and Control Con., New Orleans, LA, Aug., 1997.
[31] 中国民用航空总局,中国民航空中交通管制规则(中国民航总局86号令),1999.7
[32] 中国民用航空总局,航空器机场运行最低标准的制定与实施规定(中国民航总局98号令),2001.2