电网大停电分析模型及预防应急体系研究
|
摘要
近些年来,国内外相继发生了多起大停电事故。比较著名的有2003年8月14日美国东北部、中西部和加拿大东部联合电网的大停电事故,2006年7月1日中国河南电网的大停电事故,2006年11月4日欧洲西部电网的大停电事故等。这类大停电事故造成的危害极大,且发生频率相对来说比较频繁,因此已经成为威胁大电网安全稳定运行的突出问题,从而也引起了国内外电力学者的广泛重视。本文希望能够大停电进行较为系统性的研究,主要工作为以下四点:
归纳总结了国内外近些年来的典型大停电事故并对其停电过程和事故原因做简要的分析。
研究分析了连锁故障的机理和模拟模型,建立了连锁故障搜索模型和停电风险评估方法。本文分析了连锁故障发生发展过程以及发展阶段中推动故障传播的主要因素,建立了基于交流潮流、考虑隐藏故障特性的连锁故障搜索算法,论文选择了几个重要的参数,以IEEE-RTS96系统为例详细分析了它们对电网发生连锁故障风险的影响,从中总结了几种降低电网发生连锁故障风险的方法。
系统性地概述了预防大停电的技术措施。本文简述了电力系统安全防御理论和技术方法,系统性的论述了防止系统失步、过负荷、频率崩溃和电压崩溃的控制措施等,介绍了电磁环网解环与分层分区运行的实施方法。
建立了大停电应急理论和评价指标体系。本文根据电网大面积停电的特点,遵循应急的一般理论,应用系统论和方法论的思想,建立了大停电应急评价指标体系。引入了模糊层次分析法进行多指标的综合量化分析。
In recent years,several big blackouts occurred in several foreign and domestic power grids.For instance,on August 14,2003,large portions of the Midwest and Northeast United States and Ontario,Canada experienced an electric power blackout;on July 1,2006,a blackout happened in Henan province,China;on November 4,2006,a blackout happened in the West Europe.This kind of blackout will cause extreme loss,and its occurring probability is relatively frequent,so it has become an outstanding threat to the stability of bulk power systems.The author hope to presents a systemic study on blackouts,The following are the main work:
This paper summarize the typical blackout events at home and abroad in recent years and analyze the process of blackout and accident causes.
The mechanism of cascading failures and simulation model is studied and analyzed in this paper,the cascading failures searching model and evaluation method for blackout risk are established in this paper.The main factors impelling the cascading propagation of failures in the develop phase are analyzed at length,a cascading failure searching method is established,which is based on revised ac power flow method and considers hidden failures in protection systems.This thesis selects out several important parameters and analyzes their impact on the risk of the cascading event by IEEE-RTS96 data.According to the analysis,several methods can be used to lower the risk.
Technical measures for prevention of blackout are described systemically in this paper.The paper discusses the theory and technical method of security defense for power system briefly,discusses systemically the control measures for prevention of asynchronous、overload、frequency collapse and voltage collapse,introduces the implementation method for opening the electromagnetic loop and leveling & districting operation.
The evaluation indices system for the emergency management to large-scale blackout is systematically proposed and established by this paper.The indices system is built upon the characteristics of large-scale blackout,following the general theory about emergency management and applying the thought of systems theory and methodology.The method of Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process(FAHP) is introduced,the analytic hierarchy process is used to determine the weight of each index,then fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is performed hierarchically.
The evaluation indices system for the emergency management to large-scale blackout is systematically proposed and established by this paper.The indices system is built upon the characteristics of large-scale blackout,following the general theory about emergency management and applying the thought of systems theory and methodology.The method of Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process(FAHP) is introduced,the analytic hierarchy process is used to determine the weight of each index,then fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is performed hierarchically.
归纳总结了国内外近些年来的典型大停电事故并对其停电过程和事故原因做简要的分析。
研究分析了连锁故障的机理和模拟模型,建立了连锁故障搜索模型和停电风险评估方法。本文分析了连锁故障发生发展过程以及发展阶段中推动故障传播的主要因素,建立了基于交流潮流、考虑隐藏故障特性的连锁故障搜索算法,论文选择了几个重要的参数,以IEEE-RTS96系统为例详细分析了它们对电网发生连锁故障风险的影响,从中总结了几种降低电网发生连锁故障风险的方法。
系统性地概述了预防大停电的技术措施。本文简述了电力系统安全防御理论和技术方法,系统性的论述了防止系统失步、过负荷、频率崩溃和电压崩溃的控制措施等,介绍了电磁环网解环与分层分区运行的实施方法。
建立了大停电应急理论和评价指标体系。本文根据电网大面积停电的特点,遵循应急的一般理论,应用系统论和方法论的思想,建立了大停电应急评价指标体系。引入了模糊层次分析法进行多指标的综合量化分析。
In recent years,several big blackouts occurred in several foreign and domestic power grids.For instance,on August 14,2003,large portions of the Midwest and Northeast United States and Ontario,Canada experienced an electric power blackout;on July 1,2006,a blackout happened in Henan province,China;on November 4,2006,a blackout happened in the West Europe.This kind of blackout will cause extreme loss,and its occurring probability is relatively frequent,so it has become an outstanding threat to the stability of bulk power systems.The author hope to presents a systemic study on blackouts,The following are the main work:
This paper summarize the typical blackout events at home and abroad in recent years and analyze the process of blackout and accident causes.
The mechanism of cascading failures and simulation model is studied and analyzed in this paper,the cascading failures searching model and evaluation method for blackout risk are established in this paper.The main factors impelling the cascading propagation of failures in the develop phase are analyzed at length,a cascading failure searching method is established,which is based on revised ac power flow method and considers hidden failures in protection systems.This thesis selects out several important parameters and analyzes their impact on the risk of the cascading event by IEEE-RTS96 data.According to the analysis,several methods can be used to lower the risk.
Technical measures for prevention of blackout are described systemically in this paper.The paper discusses the theory and technical method of security defense for power system briefly,discusses systemically the control measures for prevention of asynchronous、overload、frequency collapse and voltage collapse,introduces the implementation method for opening the electromagnetic loop and leveling & districting operation.
The evaluation indices system for the emergency management to large-scale blackout is systematically proposed and established by this paper.The indices system is built upon the characteristics of large-scale blackout,following the general theory about emergency management and applying the thought of systems theory and methodology.The method of Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process(FAHP) is introduced,the analytic hierarchy process is used to determine the weight of each index,then fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is performed hierarchically.
The evaluation indices system for the emergency management to large-scale blackout is systematically proposed and established by this paper.The indices system is built upon the characteristics of large-scale blackout,following the general theory about emergency management and applying the thought of systems theory and methodology.The method of Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process(FAHP) is introduced,the analytic hierarchy process is used to determine the weight of each index,then fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is performed hierarchically.
引文
[1]卢卫星,舒印彪.美国西部电力系统1996年8月10日大停电事故.电网技术,1996,20(9):40-42.
[2]印永华,郭剑波,赵建军,等.美加“8.14”大停电事故初步分析以及应吸取的教训.电网技术,2003,27(10):1-5.
[3]唐葆生.伦敦南部地区大停电及其教训.电网技术,2003,27(11):1-5,12.
[4]高翔,庄侃沁,孙勇.西欧电网“11.4”大停电事故的启示.电网技术,2007,31(1):25-31.
[5]孙可,韩祯祥,曹一家.复杂电网连锁故障模型评述.电网技术,2005,29(3),1-9.
[6]I.Dobson,B.A.Carreras,V.E.Lynch.An Initial Model for Complex Dynamics in Electric Power System Blackouts.Hawaii International conference on System Sciences,January 2001,Maui(HI USA),Hawaii.2001,IEEE.
[7]Carreras B A,Lynch V E,Dobson I,et al.Dynamics,criticality and self-organization in a model for blackouts in power transmission systems.Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences,Maui(HI USA),Hawaii.2002,IEEE.
[8]Carreras B A,Lynch V E,Sachtjen M L,et al.Modeling Blackout Dynamics in Power Transmission Networks with Simple Structure.Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences,Maui,Hawaii,2001.
[9]Carreras B A,Lynch V E,Dobson I,et al.Dynamics,Criticality and Self-organization in a Model for Blackouts in Power Transmission Systems Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences,Maui,Hawaii,2002.
[10]B.A.Carreras,V.E.Lynch,I.Dobson,et al.Blackout Mitigation in an Electric Power Transmission System.Hawaii International Conference on System Science,Hawaii,2003.
[11]I.Dobson,J.Chen,B.A.Carreras,et al.Examining Criticality of Blackouts in Power System Models with Cascading Events.Hawaii International Conference on System Science,Hawaii,2001.
[12]I.Dobson,B.A.Carreras,V.E.Lynch,et al.Complex Systems Analysis of Series of Blackouts:Cascading Failure,Criticality,and Self-organization.Bulk Power System Dynamics and Control-VI,Italy,2004.
[13]占勇,程浩忠,熊虎岗.电力网络连锁故障研究综述.电力自动化设备.2005,25(9):93-98.
[14]梅生伟,翁晓峰,薛安成,等.基于最优潮流的停电模型及自组织临界性分析.电力系统自动化,2006,30(13):1-5,32.
[15]Holme P.Edge Overload Breakdown in Evolving Networks.Physical Review E,2002,66(2):036119.
[16]Holme P,Kim B J.Vertex Overload Breakdown in Evolving Networks.Physical Review E,2002,65(1):066109.
[17]Hoime P,Kim B J,Yoon C N,et al.Attack Vulnerability of Complex Networks.Physical Review E,2002,65(1):056109.
[18]Lai Y C,Motter A E,Nishikawa T.Attacks and Cascades in Complex Networks.Lecture Notes in Physics,2004,650:299-310.
[19]Motter A E,Lai Y C.Cascade-based Attacks on Complex Networks.Physical Review E,2002,66(2):065102.
[20]Crucitti P,Latora V,Marchiori M.Model for Cascading Failures in Complex Networks.Physical Review E,2004,69(1 ):045104.
[21]Nedic D P,Dobson I,Kirschen D S,et al.Criticality in a Cascading Failure Blackout Model.Proceedings of the 15th Power Systems Computation Conference,Aug 22-26,2005,Liege,Belgium.
[22]李生虎,丁明,王敏,等.考虑故障不确定性和保护性能的电网连锁故障模式搜索.电网技术,2004,28(13):27-31,44.
[23]Ian Dobson,Benjamin A.Carreras,David E.Newman.A Probabilistic Loading-dependent Model of Cascading Failure and Possible Implications for Blackouts.Proceedings of the 36th Hawaii International Conference on System Science,Big Island(HI USA),2003,IEEE.
[24]Ian Dobson,Benjamin A.Carreras,Vickie E.Lynch,et al.Estimating Failure Propagation in Models of Cascading Blackouts.8th International Conference on Probabilities Methods Applied to Power Systems,Iowa State University.Ames Iowa,September 12-16,2004:641-646.
[25]Jie Chen,James S.Thorp,Ian Dobson.Cascading Dynamics and Mitigation Assessment in Power System Disturbances via a Hidden Failure Model.Electrical Power and Energy Systems,2005,27,318-326.
[26]Jaime De La Ree,Yilu Liu,Lamine Mili,et al.Catastrophic Failures in Power Systems:Causes,Analyses,and Countermeasures.Proceedings of the IEEE.Vol 93,No.5,May 2005.
[27]Bae K,Thorp J S.A Stochastic Study of Hidden Failures in Power System Protection.Decision Support Systems,1999,24(3):259-268.
[28]陈为化,江全元,曹一家.考虑继电保护隐藏故障的电力系统连锁故障风险评估.电网技术,2006,30(13):14-19,25.
[29]丁明,韩平平.基于小世界拓扑模型的大型电网脆弱性评估算法.电力系统自动化,2006,30(8),7-10,40.
[30]Dobson I,Carreras B A,Newman D E.A Branching Process Approximation to Cascading Load-dependent System Failure.35th Hawaii International Conference on System Science,Hawaii,2004.
[31]周宗发,艾欣,邓慧琼,等.基于故障树和模糊推理的电网连锁故障分析 方法.电网技术,2006,30(8):87-91.
[32]Jianfeng Zhang,Fernando L.Alvarado.A Heuristic Model of Cascading Line Trips.8th International Conference on Probabilities Methods Applied to Power Systems,Iowa State University.Ames Iowa,September 12-16,2004:647-650.
[33]袁季修.防御大停电的广域保护和紧急控制.北京:中国电力出版社,2007.
[34]王梅义.大电网事故分析与技术应用.北京:中国电力出版社,2008.
[35]王梅义,吴竞昌,蒙定中.大电网系统技术(第二版)[M].北京:中国电力出版社,1995.
[36]P Kunder.电力系统稳定与控制.北京:中国电力出版社,2002.
[37]Carson W.Taylor.电力系统电压稳定.北京:中国电力出版社,2002.
[38]刘天琪.现代电力系统分析理论与方法.北京:中国电力出版社,2007.
[39]DL 755-2001电力系统安全稳定导则.北京:中国电力出版社,2001.
[40]张祖平,范明天,周莉梅.城市电网电磁环网的解环问题研究.电网技术,2008,32(1 9):42-44.
[41]王涛,赵良.500kV/220kV 电磁环网调度运行对策和浙江电网案例分析.华东电力,2005,33(9):39-41.
[42]程林,刘文颖,王维州,李杨楠,潘炜.电磁环网中无功环流的分析与控制.电网技术,2007,31(8):63-67.
[43]汤伟.安徽电网分层分区运行的目的及条件分析.安徽电力,2007,24(2):14-16.
[44]邓仕仑.美国应急管理体系及其启示.国家行政学院学报,2008,23(8):102-104.
[45]中国安全生产科学研究院赴美考察团.美国的应急管理体系(上).劳动保护,2006,12(5):90-92.
[46]姚国章,郭梦,黄淼,帖颖琦,唐彩娣,巩永华,蔡琛.美国《国家应急计划》之一.电子政务,2006,11(6):15-24.
[47]金磊.美国城市公共安全应急体系建设方法研究.城市管理与科技,2006,8(6):273-276.
[48]邹逸江.国外应急管理体系的发展现状及经验启示.灾害学,2008,23(1):96-101.
[49]U.S.-Canada Power System Outage Task Force.Final Report on the August 14,2003 Blackout in the United States and Canada:Causes and Recommendations.April 2004.
[50]U.S.-Canada Power System Outage Task Force.Final Report on the Implementation of the Task Force Recommendations.April 2004.
[51]PJM.PJM Manual 13:Emergency Operations:[Revision 7].http://www.pjm.com/contributions/pjm-manuals/manuals.html.
[52]NEMMCO.Guidelines for Preparing Local Black System Procedures.http://www.nemmco.com.au.
[53]NEMMCO.System Restart Ancillary Service Description.http://www.nemmco.com.au.
[54]谢强,李杰.电力系统自然灾害的现状与对策.自然灾害学报,2006,15(4):126-131.
[55]刘思革,范明天,张祖平,周孝信.城市电网应急能力评估技术指标的研究.电网技术,2007,31(22):17-20.
[56]田世明,陈希,朱朝阳,谢迎军.电力应急管理理论与技术对策.电网技术,2007,31(24):22-27.
[57]房鑫炎,郁惟镛,熊惠敏,曾兆祺,丁民丞,郭佳田,高其蕙.电力系统黑启动的研究.中国电力,2000,33(1):40-43,96.
[58]周韩,刘东,吴子美,江悦,程浩忠.电力系统安全预警评估指标及其应用.电力系统自动化,2007,31(20):45-48.
[59]董昱,庄伟,陶洪铸,石俊杰.电力系统大规模联合反事故演习的组织实施.电网技术,2007,31(2):1-4.
[60]国家电力调度通信中心.电网典型事故分析(1999-2007).北京:中国电力出版社,2008.
[61]韩水,苑舜,张近珠.国外典型电网事故分析.北京:中国电力出版社,2005.
[62]李再华,白晓民,丁剑,周子冠,方竹.西欧大停电事故分析.电力系统自动化,2007,31(1):1-3,32.
[63]唐斯庆,张弥,李建设,吴小辰,蒋琨,舒双焰.海南电网“9·26”大面积停电事故的分析与总结.电力系统自动化.2006,30(1):1-7,16.
[64]周勇,陈震海.华中(河南)电网“7.1”事故分析与思考.湖南电力,2008,28(3):28-30,47
[65]U.S.-Canada Power System Outage Task Force.Final Report on the August 14,2003 Blackout in the United States and Canada:Causes and Recommendations.April 2004.
[66]印永华,郭剑波,赵建军,卜广全.美加“8.14”大停电事故初步分析以及应吸取的教训.电网技术,2003,27(10):8-16.
[67]何大愚.一年以后对美加“8.14”大停电事故的反思.电网技术,2004,28(21):1-5.
[68]周孝信,郑健超,沈国荣,等.从美加东北部电网大面积停电事故中吸取教训.电网技术,2003,27(9):5-8.
[69]余晓丹,贾宏杰,陈建华.电力系统连锁故障预测初探.电网技术,2006,30(13):20-25.
[70]DAWG Database—Disturbances,Load Reductions,and Unusual Occurrences(January 1,1996-December 31,1996).[Online].Available:http://www.nerc.com/～dawg/database.html.
[71]余贻鑫,董存.美加“8.14大停电”过程中的电压崩溃.电力设备,2004,5(3):4-7.
[72]郭永基.电力系统可靠性分析.北京:清华大学出版社.2003.
[73]Zhaohong Bie,Xifan Wang.Evaluation of Power System Cascading Outages.Proceedings of International Conference on Power System Technology.Kunming,China:[s.n.],2002:415-419.
[74]别朝红,王锡凡.复杂电力系统一类连锁反应事故可靠性评估初探.电力系统自动化,2001,25(15):25-28,42.
[75]易俊,周孝信,肖逾男.用连锁故障搜索算法判别系统的自组织临界状态.中国电机工程学报,2007,27(25),1-5.
[76]孙元章,程林,刘海涛.基于实时运行状态的电力系统运行可靠性评估.电网技术,2005,29(15):6-12.
[77]程林,何剑,孙元章.线路实时可靠性模型参数对电网运行可靠性评估的影响.电网技术,2006,30(13):8-13.
[78]易俊,周孝信.考虑系统频率特性以及保护隐藏故障的电网连锁故障模型.电力系统自动化,2006,30(14):1-5.
[79]周玉兰,詹荣荣.2003年全国电网继电保护与安全自动装置运行情况统计分析.中国电力科学研究院,2003.
[80]周玉兰,王俊永.2004年全国电网继电保护与安全自动装置运行情况统计分析.中国电力科学研究院,2004.
[81]赵炜炜,张建华,易俊,尚敬福,辛永,杨晓楠.改进的 Manchester 连锁故障模型及应用研究.电网技术,2009,33(11).
[82]易俊,周孝信.基于连锁故障搜索模型的降低电网发生连锁故障风险的方法.电网技术,2007,31(6):19-22.
[83]C.Grigg et al.The IEEE Reliability Test System-1996.IEEE Transactions on Power Systems.1999,14(3):1010-1018.
[84]Chen J,Thorp J S,Parashar M.Analysis of Electric Power System Disturbance Data.Proceedings of the 34th Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences,Mani,Hawaii,2001:738-744.
[85]DL/T 723-2000.电力系统安全稳定控制技术导则.北京:中国电力出版社,2000.
[86]易俊,周孝信.电力系统广域保护与控制综述.电网技术,2006,20(8):7-12,30.
[87]杨海涛.电力系统大停电机理及预防措施分析.中国电机工程学会电力系统专业委员会2005年学术年会论文集:98-103.
[88]袁季修.试论防止电力系统大面积停电的紧急控制.电网技术,1999,23(4):1-4.
[89]袁季修.防止电力系统频率崩溃的紧急控制.电力自动化设备,2002,22(4):1-4.
[90]卢强,董新洲.继电保护与电力系统灾变防治.继电器,2005,33(14):1-5,64.
[91]刘家庆,陶家琪,徐兴伟,张弘鹏.国外电力系统稳定计算使用的负荷模型.电网技术,2007,31(4):11-15.
[92]高宗和.基于控制模式的地区电网 AVC 系统设计及应用.电力系统自动 化,2005,29(15):77-80.
[93]WANG Hai-feng.Coordinated Secondary Voltage Control to Eliminate Voltage Violations in Power System Contingencies.IEEE Trans on Power Systems,2003,18(2):588-595.
[94]胡金双,吴文传.基于分级分区的地区电网无功电压闭环控制系统.继电器,2005,33(1):50-56.
[95]ZHAO Weiwei,ZHANG Jianhua,SHANG Jingfu,LI Sheng.Study on Eliminating Electromagnetic Loop in a Bulk Power System//Proceedings of 2007 International Power Engineering Conference,December 3-6,2007,Singapore:769-772.
[96]孔涛,王洪涛,刘玉田,杨明辉,牟宏.500kV-220kV 电磁环网开环研究.电力自动化设备,2003,23(12):13-16.
[97]刘树勇,顾强,李晓辉,张来,刘丽霞.天津电网500/220kV 电磁环网解环问题研究.华北电力技术,2008,36(1):51-54.
[98]REE DE LA Jaime,LIU Yilu,MILl Lamine,et al.Catastrophic Power Systems Causes,Analyses and Countermeasures.Proceedings of the IEEE,2005,93(5):953-964.
[99]薛禹胜.综合防御由偶然故障演化为电力灾难—北美“8·14”大停电的警示.电力系统自动化,2003,27(18):1-5.
[100]朱旭凯,刘文颖,杨以涵,等.电网连锁故障演化机理与博弈预防.电力系统自动化,2008,32(5):29-33.
[101]薛禹胜.电力市场稳定性与电力系统稳定性的相互影响(Ⅰ).电力系统自动化,2002,26(21):1-6.
[102]王鹏.强外力骚扰电力系统及其防护.电网技术,2006,30(3):27-31.
[103]中华人民共和国国务院.国家处置电网大面积停电事件应急预案.[2006-O1-24].http://www.gov.cn/yjgl/2006-01/24/content_168998.htm..
[104]高志亮,李忠良.系统工程方法论.西安:西北工业大学出版社,2004.
[105]HADDOW G D,BULLOCK J A.Introduction to Emergency Management.2nd ed.New York,NY,USA:Elsevier Inc,2006:329-331.
[106]WILSON Jennifer,OYOLA-YEMAIEL Arthur.The Evolution of Emergency Management and the Advancement Towards a Profession in the United States and Florida.Safety Science,2001,39(1):117-131.
[107]赵炜炜,张建华,李胜,尚敬福,李胜.电网大面积停电应急评价指标体系及其应用研究.电力系统自动化,2008,32(20):27-31.
[108]ZHAO Weiwei,ZHANG Jianhua,SHANG Jingfu,LI Sheng.Evaluation Index System and Its Application for the Large-scale Blackout Emergency handling in Power System//Proceedings of 2009 the First International Conference on Sustainable Power Generation and Supply,April 6-7,2009.
[109]谢存伟,唐志芳,郝建刚,尚敬福.典型发达国家电网灾难事故应急管理综述.电网技术,2008,32(增刊2):46-49.
[110]龚建平,苏志鹏,卢廷杰,张志辉.城市电网大面积停电应急指挥技术支 持系统的实践与探讨电力信息化2007,5(1):58-61.
[111]李树广.电网监控与预警系统的研制.电网技术,2006,30(9):77-82.
[112]房鑫炎,郁惟镛,熊惠敏,曾兆祺,丁民丞,郭佳田,高其蕙.电力系统黑启动的研究.中国电力,2000,33(1):40-43,96.
[113]杜栋,庞庆华.现代综合评价方法与案例精选[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2005.
[114]许树柏.实用决策方法——层次分析法原理[M].天津:天津大学出版社,1988.
[115]王平洋,胡兆光.模糊数学在电力系统中的应用[M].北京:中国电力出版社,1999
[2]印永华,郭剑波,赵建军,等.美加“8.14”大停电事故初步分析以及应吸取的教训.电网技术,2003,27(10):1-5.
[3]唐葆生.伦敦南部地区大停电及其教训.电网技术,2003,27(11):1-5,12.
[4]高翔,庄侃沁,孙勇.西欧电网“11.4”大停电事故的启示.电网技术,2007,31(1):25-31.
[5]孙可,韩祯祥,曹一家.复杂电网连锁故障模型评述.电网技术,2005,29(3),1-9.
[6]I.Dobson,B.A.Carreras,V.E.Lynch.An Initial Model for Complex Dynamics in Electric Power System Blackouts.Hawaii International conference on System Sciences,January 2001,Maui(HI USA),Hawaii.2001,IEEE.
[7]Carreras B A,Lynch V E,Dobson I,et al.Dynamics,criticality and self-organization in a model for blackouts in power transmission systems.Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences,Maui(HI USA),Hawaii.2002,IEEE.
[8]Carreras B A,Lynch V E,Sachtjen M L,et al.Modeling Blackout Dynamics in Power Transmission Networks with Simple Structure.Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences,Maui,Hawaii,2001.
[9]Carreras B A,Lynch V E,Dobson I,et al.Dynamics,Criticality and Self-organization in a Model for Blackouts in Power Transmission Systems Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences,Maui,Hawaii,2002.
[10]B.A.Carreras,V.E.Lynch,I.Dobson,et al.Blackout Mitigation in an Electric Power Transmission System.Hawaii International Conference on System Science,Hawaii,2003.
[11]I.Dobson,J.Chen,B.A.Carreras,et al.Examining Criticality of Blackouts in Power System Models with Cascading Events.Hawaii International Conference on System Science,Hawaii,2001.
[12]I.Dobson,B.A.Carreras,V.E.Lynch,et al.Complex Systems Analysis of Series of Blackouts:Cascading Failure,Criticality,and Self-organization.Bulk Power System Dynamics and Control-VI,Italy,2004.
[13]占勇,程浩忠,熊虎岗.电力网络连锁故障研究综述.电力自动化设备.2005,25(9):93-98.
[14]梅生伟,翁晓峰,薛安成,等.基于最优潮流的停电模型及自组织临界性分析.电力系统自动化,2006,30(13):1-5,32.
[15]Holme P.Edge Overload Breakdown in Evolving Networks.Physical Review E,2002,66(2):036119.
[16]Holme P,Kim B J.Vertex Overload Breakdown in Evolving Networks.Physical Review E,2002,65(1):066109.
[17]Hoime P,Kim B J,Yoon C N,et al.Attack Vulnerability of Complex Networks.Physical Review E,2002,65(1):056109.
[18]Lai Y C,Motter A E,Nishikawa T.Attacks and Cascades in Complex Networks.Lecture Notes in Physics,2004,650:299-310.
[19]Motter A E,Lai Y C.Cascade-based Attacks on Complex Networks.Physical Review E,2002,66(2):065102.
[20]Crucitti P,Latora V,Marchiori M.Model for Cascading Failures in Complex Networks.Physical Review E,2004,69(1 ):045104.
[21]Nedic D P,Dobson I,Kirschen D S,et al.Criticality in a Cascading Failure Blackout Model.Proceedings of the 15th Power Systems Computation Conference,Aug 22-26,2005,Liege,Belgium.
[22]李生虎,丁明,王敏,等.考虑故障不确定性和保护性能的电网连锁故障模式搜索.电网技术,2004,28(13):27-31,44.
[23]Ian Dobson,Benjamin A.Carreras,David E.Newman.A Probabilistic Loading-dependent Model of Cascading Failure and Possible Implications for Blackouts.Proceedings of the 36th Hawaii International Conference on System Science,Big Island(HI USA),2003,IEEE.
[24]Ian Dobson,Benjamin A.Carreras,Vickie E.Lynch,et al.Estimating Failure Propagation in Models of Cascading Blackouts.8th International Conference on Probabilities Methods Applied to Power Systems,Iowa State University.Ames Iowa,September 12-16,2004:641-646.
[25]Jie Chen,James S.Thorp,Ian Dobson.Cascading Dynamics and Mitigation Assessment in Power System Disturbances via a Hidden Failure Model.Electrical Power and Energy Systems,2005,27,318-326.
[26]Jaime De La Ree,Yilu Liu,Lamine Mili,et al.Catastrophic Failures in Power Systems:Causes,Analyses,and Countermeasures.Proceedings of the IEEE.Vol 93,No.5,May 2005.
[27]Bae K,Thorp J S.A Stochastic Study of Hidden Failures in Power System Protection.Decision Support Systems,1999,24(3):259-268.
[28]陈为化,江全元,曹一家.考虑继电保护隐藏故障的电力系统连锁故障风险评估.电网技术,2006,30(13):14-19,25.
[29]丁明,韩平平.基于小世界拓扑模型的大型电网脆弱性评估算法.电力系统自动化,2006,30(8),7-10,40.
[30]Dobson I,Carreras B A,Newman D E.A Branching Process Approximation to Cascading Load-dependent System Failure.35th Hawaii International Conference on System Science,Hawaii,2004.
[31]周宗发,艾欣,邓慧琼,等.基于故障树和模糊推理的电网连锁故障分析 方法.电网技术,2006,30(8):87-91.
[32]Jianfeng Zhang,Fernando L.Alvarado.A Heuristic Model of Cascading Line Trips.8th International Conference on Probabilities Methods Applied to Power Systems,Iowa State University.Ames Iowa,September 12-16,2004:647-650.
[33]袁季修.防御大停电的广域保护和紧急控制.北京:中国电力出版社,2007.
[34]王梅义.大电网事故分析与技术应用.北京:中国电力出版社,2008.
[35]王梅义,吴竞昌,蒙定中.大电网系统技术(第二版)[M].北京:中国电力出版社,1995.
[36]P Kunder.电力系统稳定与控制.北京:中国电力出版社,2002.
[37]Carson W.Taylor.电力系统电压稳定.北京:中国电力出版社,2002.
[38]刘天琪.现代电力系统分析理论与方法.北京:中国电力出版社,2007.
[39]DL 755-2001电力系统安全稳定导则.北京:中国电力出版社,2001.
[40]张祖平,范明天,周莉梅.城市电网电磁环网的解环问题研究.电网技术,2008,32(1 9):42-44.
[41]王涛,赵良.500kV/220kV 电磁环网调度运行对策和浙江电网案例分析.华东电力,2005,33(9):39-41.
[42]程林,刘文颖,王维州,李杨楠,潘炜.电磁环网中无功环流的分析与控制.电网技术,2007,31(8):63-67.
[43]汤伟.安徽电网分层分区运行的目的及条件分析.安徽电力,2007,24(2):14-16.
[44]邓仕仑.美国应急管理体系及其启示.国家行政学院学报,2008,23(8):102-104.
[45]中国安全生产科学研究院赴美考察团.美国的应急管理体系(上).劳动保护,2006,12(5):90-92.
[46]姚国章,郭梦,黄淼,帖颖琦,唐彩娣,巩永华,蔡琛.美国《国家应急计划》之一.电子政务,2006,11(6):15-24.
[47]金磊.美国城市公共安全应急体系建设方法研究.城市管理与科技,2006,8(6):273-276.
[48]邹逸江.国外应急管理体系的发展现状及经验启示.灾害学,2008,23(1):96-101.
[49]U.S.-Canada Power System Outage Task Force.Final Report on the August 14,2003 Blackout in the United States and Canada:Causes and Recommendations.April 2004.
[50]U.S.-Canada Power System Outage Task Force.Final Report on the Implementation of the Task Force Recommendations.April 2004.
[51]PJM.PJM Manual 13:Emergency Operations:[Revision 7].http://www.pjm.com/contributions/pjm-manuals/manuals.html.
[52]NEMMCO.Guidelines for Preparing Local Black System Procedures.http://www.nemmco.com.au.
[53]NEMMCO.System Restart Ancillary Service Description.http://www.nemmco.com.au.
[54]谢强,李杰.电力系统自然灾害的现状与对策.自然灾害学报,2006,15(4):126-131.
[55]刘思革,范明天,张祖平,周孝信.城市电网应急能力评估技术指标的研究.电网技术,2007,31(22):17-20.
[56]田世明,陈希,朱朝阳,谢迎军.电力应急管理理论与技术对策.电网技术,2007,31(24):22-27.
[57]房鑫炎,郁惟镛,熊惠敏,曾兆祺,丁民丞,郭佳田,高其蕙.电力系统黑启动的研究.中国电力,2000,33(1):40-43,96.
[58]周韩,刘东,吴子美,江悦,程浩忠.电力系统安全预警评估指标及其应用.电力系统自动化,2007,31(20):45-48.
[59]董昱,庄伟,陶洪铸,石俊杰.电力系统大规模联合反事故演习的组织实施.电网技术,2007,31(2):1-4.
[60]国家电力调度通信中心.电网典型事故分析(1999-2007).北京:中国电力出版社,2008.
[61]韩水,苑舜,张近珠.国外典型电网事故分析.北京:中国电力出版社,2005.
[62]李再华,白晓民,丁剑,周子冠,方竹.西欧大停电事故分析.电力系统自动化,2007,31(1):1-3,32.
[63]唐斯庆,张弥,李建设,吴小辰,蒋琨,舒双焰.海南电网“9·26”大面积停电事故的分析与总结.电力系统自动化.2006,30(1):1-7,16.
[64]周勇,陈震海.华中(河南)电网“7.1”事故分析与思考.湖南电力,2008,28(3):28-30,47
[65]U.S.-Canada Power System Outage Task Force.Final Report on the August 14,2003 Blackout in the United States and Canada:Causes and Recommendations.April 2004.
[66]印永华,郭剑波,赵建军,卜广全.美加“8.14”大停电事故初步分析以及应吸取的教训.电网技术,2003,27(10):8-16.
[67]何大愚.一年以后对美加“8.14”大停电事故的反思.电网技术,2004,28(21):1-5.
[68]周孝信,郑健超,沈国荣,等.从美加东北部电网大面积停电事故中吸取教训.电网技术,2003,27(9):5-8.
[69]余晓丹,贾宏杰,陈建华.电力系统连锁故障预测初探.电网技术,2006,30(13):20-25.
[70]DAWG Database—Disturbances,Load Reductions,and Unusual Occurrences(January 1,1996-December 31,1996).[Online].Available:http://www.nerc.com/～dawg/database.html.
[71]余贻鑫,董存.美加“8.14大停电”过程中的电压崩溃.电力设备,2004,5(3):4-7.
[72]郭永基.电力系统可靠性分析.北京:清华大学出版社.2003.
[73]Zhaohong Bie,Xifan Wang.Evaluation of Power System Cascading Outages.Proceedings of International Conference on Power System Technology.Kunming,China:[s.n.],2002:415-419.
[74]别朝红,王锡凡.复杂电力系统一类连锁反应事故可靠性评估初探.电力系统自动化,2001,25(15):25-28,42.
[75]易俊,周孝信,肖逾男.用连锁故障搜索算法判别系统的自组织临界状态.中国电机工程学报,2007,27(25),1-5.
[76]孙元章,程林,刘海涛.基于实时运行状态的电力系统运行可靠性评估.电网技术,2005,29(15):6-12.
[77]程林,何剑,孙元章.线路实时可靠性模型参数对电网运行可靠性评估的影响.电网技术,2006,30(13):8-13.
[78]易俊,周孝信.考虑系统频率特性以及保护隐藏故障的电网连锁故障模型.电力系统自动化,2006,30(14):1-5.
[79]周玉兰,詹荣荣.2003年全国电网继电保护与安全自动装置运行情况统计分析.中国电力科学研究院,2003.
[80]周玉兰,王俊永.2004年全国电网继电保护与安全自动装置运行情况统计分析.中国电力科学研究院,2004.
[81]赵炜炜,张建华,易俊,尚敬福,辛永,杨晓楠.改进的 Manchester 连锁故障模型及应用研究.电网技术,2009,33(11).
[82]易俊,周孝信.基于连锁故障搜索模型的降低电网发生连锁故障风险的方法.电网技术,2007,31(6):19-22.
[83]C.Grigg et al.The IEEE Reliability Test System-1996.IEEE Transactions on Power Systems.1999,14(3):1010-1018.
[84]Chen J,Thorp J S,Parashar M.Analysis of Electric Power System Disturbance Data.Proceedings of the 34th Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences,Mani,Hawaii,2001:738-744.
[85]DL/T 723-2000.电力系统安全稳定控制技术导则.北京:中国电力出版社,2000.
[86]易俊,周孝信.电力系统广域保护与控制综述.电网技术,2006,20(8):7-12,30.
[87]杨海涛.电力系统大停电机理及预防措施分析.中国电机工程学会电力系统专业委员会2005年学术年会论文集:98-103.
[88]袁季修.试论防止电力系统大面积停电的紧急控制.电网技术,1999,23(4):1-4.
[89]袁季修.防止电力系统频率崩溃的紧急控制.电力自动化设备,2002,22(4):1-4.
[90]卢强,董新洲.继电保护与电力系统灾变防治.继电器,2005,33(14):1-5,64.
[91]刘家庆,陶家琪,徐兴伟,张弘鹏.国外电力系统稳定计算使用的负荷模型.电网技术,2007,31(4):11-15.
[92]高宗和.基于控制模式的地区电网 AVC 系统设计及应用.电力系统自动 化,2005,29(15):77-80.
[93]WANG Hai-feng.Coordinated Secondary Voltage Control to Eliminate Voltage Violations in Power System Contingencies.IEEE Trans on Power Systems,2003,18(2):588-595.
[94]胡金双,吴文传.基于分级分区的地区电网无功电压闭环控制系统.继电器,2005,33(1):50-56.
[95]ZHAO Weiwei,ZHANG Jianhua,SHANG Jingfu,LI Sheng.Study on Eliminating Electromagnetic Loop in a Bulk Power System//Proceedings of 2007 International Power Engineering Conference,December 3-6,2007,Singapore:769-772.
[96]孔涛,王洪涛,刘玉田,杨明辉,牟宏.500kV-220kV 电磁环网开环研究.电力自动化设备,2003,23(12):13-16.
[97]刘树勇,顾强,李晓辉,张来,刘丽霞.天津电网500/220kV 电磁环网解环问题研究.华北电力技术,2008,36(1):51-54.
[98]REE DE LA Jaime,LIU Yilu,MILl Lamine,et al.Catastrophic Power Systems Causes,Analyses and Countermeasures.Proceedings of the IEEE,2005,93(5):953-964.
[99]薛禹胜.综合防御由偶然故障演化为电力灾难—北美“8·14”大停电的警示.电力系统自动化,2003,27(18):1-5.
[100]朱旭凯,刘文颖,杨以涵,等.电网连锁故障演化机理与博弈预防.电力系统自动化,2008,32(5):29-33.
[101]薛禹胜.电力市场稳定性与电力系统稳定性的相互影响(Ⅰ).电力系统自动化,2002,26(21):1-6.
[102]王鹏.强外力骚扰电力系统及其防护.电网技术,2006,30(3):27-31.
[103]中华人民共和国国务院.国家处置电网大面积停电事件应急预案.[2006-O1-24].http://www.gov.cn/yjgl/2006-01/24/content_168998.htm..
[104]高志亮,李忠良.系统工程方法论.西安:西北工业大学出版社,2004.
[105]HADDOW G D,BULLOCK J A.Introduction to Emergency Management.2nd ed.New York,NY,USA:Elsevier Inc,2006:329-331.
[106]WILSON Jennifer,OYOLA-YEMAIEL Arthur.The Evolution of Emergency Management and the Advancement Towards a Profession in the United States and Florida.Safety Science,2001,39(1):117-131.
[107]赵炜炜,张建华,李胜,尚敬福,李胜.电网大面积停电应急评价指标体系及其应用研究.电力系统自动化,2008,32(20):27-31.
[108]ZHAO Weiwei,ZHANG Jianhua,SHANG Jingfu,LI Sheng.Evaluation Index System and Its Application for the Large-scale Blackout Emergency handling in Power System//Proceedings of 2009 the First International Conference on Sustainable Power Generation and Supply,April 6-7,2009.
[109]谢存伟,唐志芳,郝建刚,尚敬福.典型发达国家电网灾难事故应急管理综述.电网技术,2008,32(增刊2):46-49.
[110]龚建平,苏志鹏,卢廷杰,张志辉.城市电网大面积停电应急指挥技术支 持系统的实践与探讨电力信息化2007,5(1):58-61.
[111]李树广.电网监控与预警系统的研制.电网技术,2006,30(9):77-82.
[112]房鑫炎,郁惟镛,熊惠敏,曾兆祺,丁民丞,郭佳田,高其蕙.电力系统黑启动的研究.中国电力,2000,33(1):40-43,96.
[113]杜栋,庞庆华.现代综合评价方法与案例精选[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2005.
[114]许树柏.实用决策方法——层次分析法原理[M].天津:天津大学出版社,1988.
[115]王平洋,胡兆光.模糊数学在电力系统中的应用[M].北京:中国电力出版社,1999