大连能源—环境—经济可持续发展研究
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摘要
当今世界,经济发展与能源、环境之间的矛盾日益突出,可持续发展越来越受到社会各界的关注。改革开放以来,大连在经济快速发展的同时,走出一条能源-环境-经济可持续发展的新路子,大连的经验不仅对于中国区域可持续发展,而且对于世界上的许多区域走可持续发展之路都具有十分重要的意义。
阐述大连能源—环境—经济的可持续发展研究的理论与方法,对库兹涅茨曲线理论、扩展的EKC理论、3E理论(能源—环境—经济可持续发展理论)及研究方法的进步如面板数据方法、广义脉冲响应函数法、方差分解法等进行了分析。在此基础上,本文以大连市为例,从能源—环境—经济的关系方面,研究可持续发展的相关问题,从自适应控制论角度研究其复杂关系,建立可持续发展中节能减排与经济增长的模型和指标体系,设计和预测大连能源——环境——经济可持续发展的目标。
建立大连能源—环境—经济模型组。运用污染物排放当量计算法,测算出大连主要污染物的排放当量,建立主要污染物排放当量的演化模型;从能耗率与科技进步、产业结构、能源消费结构、环保投入的关系角度,应用复杂适应系统理论的思想方法,建立大连能耗率的演化模型;在新增长理论基础上,建立大连经济增长率模型。
对大连2020年的可持续发展发展路径及其控制轨迹进行优化设计。建立能源—环境—经济可持续发展的哈密顿函数,对2020年大连能耗率的演化情景进行设计和预测;提出污染物减排的峰状轨迹观点,并对2020年大连主要污染物排放当量的演化情景进行设计和预测,由此对库茨尼茨节能减排曲线理论进行完善——提出节能减排的峰状推进理论。
将控制论引进能源—环境—经济可持续发展评价指标体系中。从压力—状态—响应的角度提出可持续发展的自适应控制框架,并在压力—状态—响应框架基础上构造能源—环境—经济可持续发展的“二维指标体系”。
最后概括大连在推进能源—环境—经济可持续发展中的一些主要措施,主要是科技进步和产业结构升级加快的措施,积极促进能源结构优化和能源消费方式的转轨的措施、发展超循环经济的措施,持续推进污染物减排进程的措施,以及建立可持续发展的自适应控制机制的措施。
In today's world, economic development and energy, the environment have become increasingly prominent, especially sustainable development is receiving increasing attention from all sectors of society. And sustainable development is closely related to each country, each region, even everyone. Since the reform and opening-up, the economic growth in Dalian is so fast and it begins to come out a new way of energy - environment - sustainable economic development. This is not only the experience of China's regional sustainable development, but also for many regions of the world's sustainable development Road are of great significance.
The paper makes an explanation of energy - environment - sustainable economic development study of Dalian as the theoretical foundation, like the Kuznets curve theory, the expansion of the EKC theory, 3E theory and research methods such as the progress of the panel data methods, generalized impulse response function, variance decomposition were studied.
The structure of energy production conversion and energy consumption in transition in Dalian were described in the paper. From the rate of energy consumption and scientific and technological progress, industrial relations point of view, Dalian power consumption rate of evolution of the model was set up, Dalian in 2020 the rate of evolution of the energy scenarios was designed and predicted with the application of the theory of complex adaptive systems thinking.
The use of emissions equivalent calculation method makes the calculation of Dalian equivalent emissions of major pollutants and the establishment of evolution model of Equivalent emissions of major pollutants. The pollutant emission reduction point of view of peak-shaped track also be made and Dalian in 2020 the main pollutant emissions equivalent of the evolution of the scene was designed and predicted. With this energy-saving Cini Ci of the Treasury curve theory of emission reduction was improved - made the theory of peak-like reduction of energy-saving advance.
The adaptive control theory was used in the energy - environment - sustainable economic development studies. From the pressure - state - in response view, it makes the adaptive control framework of sustainable development as local optimization, dynamic stability mechanism, self-tuning control mechanisms. These mechanisms are combined with the environmental protection and pollution control in Dalian to establish a new indicator system of sustainable development. On this basis, the framework of pressure - state - in response is combined to the social, economic, resources and environment complex combination theory and the "index system of two-dimensional" of energy - environment - sustainable economic development is made.
Finally, it gives a summary of the experience and some key measures (including measures in the future) in the sustainable development of eco-construction in Dalian city, mainly on scientific and technological progress and industrial upgrading, to speed up the development of economic super-cycle , to actively promote and optimize the energy structure and energy consumption patterns in transition, as well as the establishment of sustainable development and adaptive control mechanisms.
阐述大连能源—环境—经济的可持续发展研究的理论与方法,对库兹涅茨曲线理论、扩展的EKC理论、3E理论(能源—环境—经济可持续发展理论)及研究方法的进步如面板数据方法、广义脉冲响应函数法、方差分解法等进行了分析。在此基础上,本文以大连市为例,从能源—环境—经济的关系方面,研究可持续发展的相关问题,从自适应控制论角度研究其复杂关系,建立可持续发展中节能减排与经济增长的模型和指标体系,设计和预测大连能源——环境——经济可持续发展的目标。
建立大连能源—环境—经济模型组。运用污染物排放当量计算法,测算出大连主要污染物的排放当量,建立主要污染物排放当量的演化模型;从能耗率与科技进步、产业结构、能源消费结构、环保投入的关系角度,应用复杂适应系统理论的思想方法,建立大连能耗率的演化模型;在新增长理论基础上,建立大连经济增长率模型。
对大连2020年的可持续发展发展路径及其控制轨迹进行优化设计。建立能源—环境—经济可持续发展的哈密顿函数,对2020年大连能耗率的演化情景进行设计和预测;提出污染物减排的峰状轨迹观点,并对2020年大连主要污染物排放当量的演化情景进行设计和预测,由此对库茨尼茨节能减排曲线理论进行完善——提出节能减排的峰状推进理论。
将控制论引进能源—环境—经济可持续发展评价指标体系中。从压力—状态—响应的角度提出可持续发展的自适应控制框架,并在压力—状态—响应框架基础上构造能源—环境—经济可持续发展的“二维指标体系”。
最后概括大连在推进能源—环境—经济可持续发展中的一些主要措施,主要是科技进步和产业结构升级加快的措施,积极促进能源结构优化和能源消费方式的转轨的措施、发展超循环经济的措施,持续推进污染物减排进程的措施,以及建立可持续发展的自适应控制机制的措施。
In today's world, economic development and energy, the environment have become increasingly prominent, especially sustainable development is receiving increasing attention from all sectors of society. And sustainable development is closely related to each country, each region, even everyone. Since the reform and opening-up, the economic growth in Dalian is so fast and it begins to come out a new way of energy - environment - sustainable economic development. This is not only the experience of China's regional sustainable development, but also for many regions of the world's sustainable development Road are of great significance.
The paper makes an explanation of energy - environment - sustainable economic development study of Dalian as the theoretical foundation, like the Kuznets curve theory, the expansion of the EKC theory, 3E theory and research methods such as the progress of the panel data methods, generalized impulse response function, variance decomposition were studied.
The structure of energy production conversion and energy consumption in transition in Dalian were described in the paper. From the rate of energy consumption and scientific and technological progress, industrial relations point of view, Dalian power consumption rate of evolution of the model was set up, Dalian in 2020 the rate of evolution of the energy scenarios was designed and predicted with the application of the theory of complex adaptive systems thinking.
The use of emissions equivalent calculation method makes the calculation of Dalian equivalent emissions of major pollutants and the establishment of evolution model of Equivalent emissions of major pollutants. The pollutant emission reduction point of view of peak-shaped track also be made and Dalian in 2020 the main pollutant emissions equivalent of the evolution of the scene was designed and predicted. With this energy-saving Cini Ci of the Treasury curve theory of emission reduction was improved - made the theory of peak-like reduction of energy-saving advance.
The adaptive control theory was used in the energy - environment - sustainable economic development studies. From the pressure - state - in response view, it makes the adaptive control framework of sustainable development as local optimization, dynamic stability mechanism, self-tuning control mechanisms. These mechanisms are combined with the environmental protection and pollution control in Dalian to establish a new indicator system of sustainable development. On this basis, the framework of pressure - state - in response is combined to the social, economic, resources and environment complex combination theory and the "index system of two-dimensional" of energy - environment - sustainable economic development is made.
Finally, it gives a summary of the experience and some key measures (including measures in the future) in the sustainable development of eco-construction in Dalian city, mainly on scientific and technological progress and industrial upgrading, to speed up the development of economic super-cycle , to actively promote and optimize the energy structure and energy consumption patterns in transition, as well as the establishment of sustainable development and adaptive control mechanisms.
引文
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