我国东部沿海区域能源安全评价及保障路径设计
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摘要
能源是人类社会生存和发展的基础,改革开放后的三十多年中,我国在能源领域取得了显著成就的同时,也产生了许多问题,诸如能源供需矛盾突出、能源利用效率低下、生态破坏和环境污染日益严重等,严重的威胁到国家的能源安全,阻碍了社会经济的可持续发展。因此,建设一个资源节约型社会,是我国今后发展的目标,也是保障能源安全的根本途径。
能源供应地与消费地分布不平衡使区域能源安全问题凸显。东部沿海地区是我国人口密集、经济发达的地区,也是我国能源最消费集中的区域,但能源资源相当的贫乏,能源供需矛盾十分严重。保障东部沿海地区的能源安全,是保障国家能源安全,实现经济社会可持续发展的关键。因此综合评价东部沿海地区的能源安全状况,预测未来能源安全发展趋势,探讨保障东部沿海区域能源安全的途径和政策措施,显得尤为重要。
本文的主要结论和创新之处有以下几个方面:
第一,本文以多学科交叉的视角,探索东部沿海地区能源安全的特征,并结合当前新的形势,所选指标在前人基础上进行了拓展,既考虑了传统的影响因素,又融入了社会、环境、低碳等新的因素,揭示了区域能源安全问题与经济、社会、人口、资源和环境之间的关系和相互作用机理。
第二,运用DPSIR评价方法,分别从驱动力、压力、状态、影响和响应五个方面选取指标集,构建东部沿海区域能源安全综合评价体系模型,并采用因子分析模型,结合SPSS统计分析软件,对东部沿海区域能源安全进行科学的定量的评价。
第三,本文采用情景分析法,以保障能源供应稳定性和使用安全性为前提,对不同情景下的东部沿海区域能源安全的发展趋势进行预测,以便为政策制定者在制定区域能源安全战略时提供参考。
第四,论文选择东部沿海地区的一个典型的能源消费及输入大省广东省作为案例,通过对广东省能源安全的综合评价,提出了相应的能源安全保障政策建议,旨在努力的构建一套完善的东部沿海区域能源安全综合评价体系和预警应急机制,并力求在东部沿海区域能源安全保障路径的设计上有所突破和创新。
Energy is the necessity of human society survival and development. After thirty years of reform and opening up, China has made remarkable achievements, but also generated a lot of problems in energy, such as the obvious contradiction between energy supply and demand, low efficiency energy utilization, ecological destruction and increasingly serious environmental pollution, which seriously threats national energy security, hinders social and economic sustainable development. Therefore, building a resource-saving society is China's future development goals, as well as a fundamental way of energy security.
Energy supply and consumption distribution imbalances highlight the regional energy security issues. China's eastern coastal is densely populated and economically developed, most of China's energy consumption is concentrated in this area, but it is rather poor in energy resources and energy supply and demand contradiction is very serious. Protect energy security of the eastern coastal areas is to protect national energy security; it is the key of sustainable economic and social development. Therefore, it is particularly important to comprehensively evaluate the energy security situation in the eastern coastal areas, to predict future development trend of energy security, to protect eastern coastal area of energy security means and to formulate policy measures.
The main conclusions and innovations are in the following areas:
First, this thesis explored the characteristics of the eastern coastal areas of energy security in interdisciplinary perspective, combined with the current new situation. The selected indicators were based on previous development, not only the traditional factors were considered, but also the social, environmental, low carbon and other new factors, which aimed to reveal the regional energy security issues with economic, social, population, resources and environment relationship and interaction between the mechanism.
Second, through DPSIR assessment method, the thesis respectively, built analyzed the eastern coastal region energy security evaluation model with factors of driving force, pressure, state, impact and response indicators, and undertook quantitative scientific evaluation combined with SPASS statistical analysis software, regional energy security on the eastern coast.
Third, this thesis undertook scenario analysis to safeguard the stability of energy supply and predict different scenarios of energy security in the eastern coastal region to predict the development trend so as to provide reference to policy makers in formulating regional energy security development strategy.
Fourth, the thesis chosen Guangdong province, a typical eastern coastal areas of energy consumption as case. Through comprehensive evaluation of energy security, it proposed corresponding policy recommendations for energy security, which aims to build comprehensive energy security evaluation system of the eastern coastal area and early warning mechanisms, as well as achieve breakthrough on the path of the design and innovation of energy security in the eastern coastal area.
能源供应地与消费地分布不平衡使区域能源安全问题凸显。东部沿海地区是我国人口密集、经济发达的地区,也是我国能源最消费集中的区域,但能源资源相当的贫乏,能源供需矛盾十分严重。保障东部沿海地区的能源安全,是保障国家能源安全,实现经济社会可持续发展的关键。因此综合评价东部沿海地区的能源安全状况,预测未来能源安全发展趋势,探讨保障东部沿海区域能源安全的途径和政策措施,显得尤为重要。
本文的主要结论和创新之处有以下几个方面:
第一,本文以多学科交叉的视角,探索东部沿海地区能源安全的特征,并结合当前新的形势,所选指标在前人基础上进行了拓展,既考虑了传统的影响因素,又融入了社会、环境、低碳等新的因素,揭示了区域能源安全问题与经济、社会、人口、资源和环境之间的关系和相互作用机理。
第二,运用DPSIR评价方法,分别从驱动力、压力、状态、影响和响应五个方面选取指标集,构建东部沿海区域能源安全综合评价体系模型,并采用因子分析模型,结合SPSS统计分析软件,对东部沿海区域能源安全进行科学的定量的评价。
第三,本文采用情景分析法,以保障能源供应稳定性和使用安全性为前提,对不同情景下的东部沿海区域能源安全的发展趋势进行预测,以便为政策制定者在制定区域能源安全战略时提供参考。
第四,论文选择东部沿海地区的一个典型的能源消费及输入大省广东省作为案例,通过对广东省能源安全的综合评价,提出了相应的能源安全保障政策建议,旨在努力的构建一套完善的东部沿海区域能源安全综合评价体系和预警应急机制,并力求在东部沿海区域能源安全保障路径的设计上有所突破和创新。
Energy is the necessity of human society survival and development. After thirty years of reform and opening up, China has made remarkable achievements, but also generated a lot of problems in energy, such as the obvious contradiction between energy supply and demand, low efficiency energy utilization, ecological destruction and increasingly serious environmental pollution, which seriously threats national energy security, hinders social and economic sustainable development. Therefore, building a resource-saving society is China's future development goals, as well as a fundamental way of energy security.
Energy supply and consumption distribution imbalances highlight the regional energy security issues. China's eastern coastal is densely populated and economically developed, most of China's energy consumption is concentrated in this area, but it is rather poor in energy resources and energy supply and demand contradiction is very serious. Protect energy security of the eastern coastal areas is to protect national energy security; it is the key of sustainable economic and social development. Therefore, it is particularly important to comprehensively evaluate the energy security situation in the eastern coastal areas, to predict future development trend of energy security, to protect eastern coastal area of energy security means and to formulate policy measures.
The main conclusions and innovations are in the following areas:
First, this thesis explored the characteristics of the eastern coastal areas of energy security in interdisciplinary perspective, combined with the current new situation. The selected indicators were based on previous development, not only the traditional factors were considered, but also the social, environmental, low carbon and other new factors, which aimed to reveal the regional energy security issues with economic, social, population, resources and environment relationship and interaction between the mechanism.
Second, through DPSIR assessment method, the thesis respectively, built analyzed the eastern coastal region energy security evaluation model with factors of driving force, pressure, state, impact and response indicators, and undertook quantitative scientific evaluation combined with SPASS statistical analysis software, regional energy security on the eastern coast.
Third, this thesis undertook scenario analysis to safeguard the stability of energy supply and predict different scenarios of energy security in the eastern coastal region to predict the development trend so as to provide reference to policy makers in formulating regional energy security development strategy.
Fourth, the thesis chosen Guangdong province, a typical eastern coastal areas of energy consumption as case. Through comprehensive evaluation of energy security, it proposed corresponding policy recommendations for energy security, which aims to build comprehensive energy security evaluation system of the eastern coastal area and early warning mechanisms, as well as achieve breakthrough on the path of the design and innovation of energy security in the eastern coastal area.
引文
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[14]数据来源于:BP,2009
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[17]数据来源于:中国可再生能源发展战略研究项目组2008中国可再生能源发展战略研究丛书中国电力出版社北京
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[11]数据根据2009年人口变动情况抽样调查数据推算
[12]数据来源于:中国统计年鉴, 2010
[13]数据来源于:中国能源统计年鉴, 1991-2008
[14]数据来源于:BP, 2009
[15]数据来源于:中国可再生能源发展战略研究项目组2008中国可再生能源发展战略研究丛书中国电力出版社北京
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[18]资料来源:BP发布的2009年最新能源统计数据。
[19]数据来源于:中国统计年鉴, 2010
[20]数据来源于:中国统计年鉴, 2004-2010
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[3]Daniel Yergin.(2006).“Ensuring Energy Security.”Foreign Affairs 85(2):69～82.
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[5]David Deese,Joseph Nye.Energy and Security.Cambridge:Ballinger Publishing Co., 1988.
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[7]Daniel Yergin.(2006).“Ensuring Energy Security.”Foreign Affairs 85(2):69～82.
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[9]Kruyt & van Vuuren,et al.(2009).“Indicators for Energy Security.”Energy Policy37(6):2166～2181.
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[11]根据2009年人口变动情况抽样调查数据推算
[12]数据来源于:中国统计年鉴,2010
[13]数据来源于:中国能源统计年鉴,1991～2008
[14]数据来源于:BP,2009
[15]数据来源于:中国可再生能源发展战略研究项目组2008中国可再生能源发展战略研究丛书中国电力出版社北京
[16]数据来源于:BP,2009
[17]数据来源于:中国可再生能源发展战略研究项目组2008中国可再生能源发展战略研究丛书中国电力出版社北京
[18]资料来源:BP发布的2009年最新能源统计数据
[19]数据来源于:中国统计年鉴,2010
[20]数据来源于:中国统计年鉴,2004～2010
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