基于“两型社会”建设的可持续消费模式研究
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摘要
本论文立足于我国当前消费模式、消费政策的现状,以扩大内需为导向,以建设“两型社会”为关键,以发展低碳经济为重要突破口,以资源环境的可持续消费研究为主线,并在借鉴国外消费政策经验和可持续消费的有关理论基础上,旨在找到消费模式、消费政策与资源环境的相互影响机理及其在建设“两型社会”中的作用。本文主要采用比较分析、统计分析、计量分析等方法对可持续消费模式展开研究,得到如下结论：
(1)消费是人类作用于资源环境的最终目标,“两型社会”的突出特点就是兼顾资源节约性和环境友好性。可持续消费模式在内涵与具体措施上可以保持与这两点的内在协调。可持续消费模式具有生态性、发展性、系统性、适度性、公正性、差异性、协调性等七个性质,并受资源环境等因素的影响。
(2)受消费欲望驱使的不当消费模式,是造成资源危机和环境恶化的深层原因。我国现行消费模式存在的消费结构不合理等三个问题,并对资源消耗过度。我国人口城市化率增加仍然是碳排放总量持续上升的主要驱动因子,居民消费水平与消费模式等人文因素的变化有可能成为我国碳排放的新的增长点,现阶段我国居民消费水平与人口结构变化对碳排放的影响力已高于人口规模变化的影响力；虽然我国在以碳排放强度降低为表征的技术进步方面取得了一定的成绩,在三个“倒U型”曲线规律制约下,技术进步因素对碳减排作用有限。
(3)中国现实国情和发展目标决定了我国不能仿效美国的过度消费模式,我国必须走可持续消费之路。在生活消费领域,政府可借鉴瑞典、日本消费模式的一些特征,引导居民处理好消费与生产、积累与消费、现在与将来的关系。
(4)面对建立可持续消费模式的各种障碍,建立可持续消费模式是一项系统工程,我国要建立可持续消费模式的政策体系,引导可持续消费模式的消费者行为,构筑可持续消费模式的企业生产体系,重视非政府组织在可持续消费模式的作用。
本文的主要创新点是：
(1)研究视角上,本文试图从可持续消费的视角开展人类与资源环境关系的研究,从消费模式这个根源上探讨导致资源环境变化的成因和症结。
(2)研究内容上,本文基于扩展的STIRPAT模型,运用最小二乘法和主成分回归法对我国碳排放总量、总人口、城市化率、人均消费水平、碳排放强度等相关变量的关系进行了实证检验。结果表明居民消费水平、人口城市化率、人口规模三个因素对我国碳排放总量的变化影响明显。
(3)本文的研究结论具有更丰富的经济学和政策含义。本文认为：我国建立可持续消费模式具有重大意义。政府应利用经济管理手段、法律手段以及宣传手段构建可持续消费政策体系,消费者要落实可持续消费模式,企业应构建促进可持续消费的生产体系,非政府组织应积极发挥在可持续消费模式的作用。
Based on the situation of current consumption mode and consumption policy, regarding the expanding domestic demand as guidance, the construction of two-oriented socity as key, the development of low-carbon economy as important breakthrough,the research of sustainable consumption on resource and environment as main thread,and drawng on the experience abroad as well as the relevant theory of sustainable consumption, the dissertation strives to discover the effect mechanism among consumption mode,consumption policy, resource and environment.The suggestions in the dissertation will provide some policy references for construction of resource conservation and environment friendly society. The dissertation elaborates the sustainable consumption mode by using comparative analysis, statistical analysis, quantitative analysis. The main conclusions of this dissertation are as follows:
(1) Consumption is the final target which humanity effects on resources and environment, the outstanding feature of "two types society" is to be considered both resource-conserving and environment-friendly.The sustainable consumption mode can keep the inner equilibrium with the two characteristics in both content and specific measure. The sustainable mode includes seven kinds of characteristic,that is, ecological,development, systematic,moderate, justice, diversity, harmony,and is influenced by some facters such as resource and environment,etc.
(2) The unsuitable consumption mode impelled by consumption desire is the inner reason of resource crisis and environment deterioration.In China,the current consumption mode brings the effect of over-consumption on resource due to the three problems which includes the consumption structure is unreasonable.The increase of urbanization rate is still the main driving factor which makes the carbon emission continuously rise.Both the changes of household consumption level and consumption pattern have possibilities of being new growth points for China's carbon emission,and China's carbon emission is more influenced by the urbanization rate and the household consumption level than the population size at the present stage. Although China has gained a certain achievement in the aspect of technology progress regarding the reduction of the intensity of carbon emission as the symbol, the effect of the technology progess on carbon emission reduction is limited, owing to the restriction of the three Converse-U Curve rule.
(3) The realistic situation and development goal in China determine that the country can not imitate the over-consumption mode of U.S.A, but must go the sustainable consumption way. In life consumption domain,the government can draw lessons from the consumption mode of Switzerland and Japan, guiding residents to handle the three relationships well:consumption and production, accumulation and consumptiom, present and future.
(4) Facing all sorts of obstacles,the establishment of sustainable consumption mode is a systematic engineering, which needs the exertion of all walks of the society.we should establish the policy system of sustainable consumption mode,guide consumer behavior,build up enterprise produce system of sustainable consumption mode,as well as pay attention to the role of non-governmental organization in the construction of sustainable consumption mode.
The main innovative points in this dissertation are as follows:
(1) On research perspective. The dissertation tries to develops the research on the relationship between humanity and resource environment from the perspective of sustainable consumption, and discusses the reason of the change of resource and environment from the source of consumption mode.
(2) On research content,based on extended STIRPAT model, the dissertation applies OLS and main component regression method to estimate the relationship among carbon emission, population, urbanization rate,per capita consumption and intensity of carbon emission. The impacts of the urbanization rate, the household consumption level and the population scale have more explanatory power to the quantity change regularity of China's carbon emission.
(3) The conclusions have richer economic and policy meanings.The dissertation deems that the construction of sustainable consumption mode has great significance in our country.The government should build up sustainable consumption policy system by using economic and management means,law means,as well as propaganda means, the consumer should carry out the sustainable consumption mode,the enterprise should build up produce system of the sustainable consumption mode,the non-governmental organization should play active role in the sustainable consumption mode.
(1)消费是人类作用于资源环境的最终目标,“两型社会”的突出特点就是兼顾资源节约性和环境友好性。可持续消费模式在内涵与具体措施上可以保持与这两点的内在协调。可持续消费模式具有生态性、发展性、系统性、适度性、公正性、差异性、协调性等七个性质,并受资源环境等因素的影响。
(2)受消费欲望驱使的不当消费模式,是造成资源危机和环境恶化的深层原因。我国现行消费模式存在的消费结构不合理等三个问题,并对资源消耗过度。我国人口城市化率增加仍然是碳排放总量持续上升的主要驱动因子,居民消费水平与消费模式等人文因素的变化有可能成为我国碳排放的新的增长点,现阶段我国居民消费水平与人口结构变化对碳排放的影响力已高于人口规模变化的影响力；虽然我国在以碳排放强度降低为表征的技术进步方面取得了一定的成绩,在三个“倒U型”曲线规律制约下,技术进步因素对碳减排作用有限。
(3)中国现实国情和发展目标决定了我国不能仿效美国的过度消费模式,我国必须走可持续消费之路。在生活消费领域,政府可借鉴瑞典、日本消费模式的一些特征,引导居民处理好消费与生产、积累与消费、现在与将来的关系。
(4)面对建立可持续消费模式的各种障碍,建立可持续消费模式是一项系统工程,我国要建立可持续消费模式的政策体系,引导可持续消费模式的消费者行为,构筑可持续消费模式的企业生产体系,重视非政府组织在可持续消费模式的作用。
本文的主要创新点是：
(1)研究视角上,本文试图从可持续消费的视角开展人类与资源环境关系的研究,从消费模式这个根源上探讨导致资源环境变化的成因和症结。
(2)研究内容上,本文基于扩展的STIRPAT模型,运用最小二乘法和主成分回归法对我国碳排放总量、总人口、城市化率、人均消费水平、碳排放强度等相关变量的关系进行了实证检验。结果表明居民消费水平、人口城市化率、人口规模三个因素对我国碳排放总量的变化影响明显。
(3)本文的研究结论具有更丰富的经济学和政策含义。本文认为：我国建立可持续消费模式具有重大意义。政府应利用经济管理手段、法律手段以及宣传手段构建可持续消费政策体系,消费者要落实可持续消费模式,企业应构建促进可持续消费的生产体系,非政府组织应积极发挥在可持续消费模式的作用。
Based on the situation of current consumption mode and consumption policy, regarding the expanding domestic demand as guidance, the construction of two-oriented socity as key, the development of low-carbon economy as important breakthrough,the research of sustainable consumption on resource and environment as main thread,and drawng on the experience abroad as well as the relevant theory of sustainable consumption, the dissertation strives to discover the effect mechanism among consumption mode,consumption policy, resource and environment.The suggestions in the dissertation will provide some policy references for construction of resource conservation and environment friendly society. The dissertation elaborates the sustainable consumption mode by using comparative analysis, statistical analysis, quantitative analysis. The main conclusions of this dissertation are as follows:
(1) Consumption is the final target which humanity effects on resources and environment, the outstanding feature of "two types society" is to be considered both resource-conserving and environment-friendly.The sustainable consumption mode can keep the inner equilibrium with the two characteristics in both content and specific measure. The sustainable mode includes seven kinds of characteristic,that is, ecological,development, systematic,moderate, justice, diversity, harmony,and is influenced by some facters such as resource and environment,etc.
(2) The unsuitable consumption mode impelled by consumption desire is the inner reason of resource crisis and environment deterioration.In China,the current consumption mode brings the effect of over-consumption on resource due to the three problems which includes the consumption structure is unreasonable.The increase of urbanization rate is still the main driving factor which makes the carbon emission continuously rise.Both the changes of household consumption level and consumption pattern have possibilities of being new growth points for China's carbon emission,and China's carbon emission is more influenced by the urbanization rate and the household consumption level than the population size at the present stage. Although China has gained a certain achievement in the aspect of technology progress regarding the reduction of the intensity of carbon emission as the symbol, the effect of the technology progess on carbon emission reduction is limited, owing to the restriction of the three Converse-U Curve rule.
(3) The realistic situation and development goal in China determine that the country can not imitate the over-consumption mode of U.S.A, but must go the sustainable consumption way. In life consumption domain,the government can draw lessons from the consumption mode of Switzerland and Japan, guiding residents to handle the three relationships well:consumption and production, accumulation and consumptiom, present and future.
(4) Facing all sorts of obstacles,the establishment of sustainable consumption mode is a systematic engineering, which needs the exertion of all walks of the society.we should establish the policy system of sustainable consumption mode,guide consumer behavior,build up enterprise produce system of sustainable consumption mode,as well as pay attention to the role of non-governmental organization in the construction of sustainable consumption mode.
The main innovative points in this dissertation are as follows:
(1) On research perspective. The dissertation tries to develops the research on the relationship between humanity and resource environment from the perspective of sustainable consumption, and discusses the reason of the change of resource and environment from the source of consumption mode.
(2) On research content,based on extended STIRPAT model, the dissertation applies OLS and main component regression method to estimate the relationship among carbon emission, population, urbanization rate,per capita consumption and intensity of carbon emission. The impacts of the urbanization rate, the household consumption level and the population scale have more explanatory power to the quantity change regularity of China's carbon emission.
(3) The conclusions have richer economic and policy meanings.The dissertation deems that the construction of sustainable consumption mode has great significance in our country.The government should build up sustainable consumption policy system by using economic and management means,law means,as well as propaganda means, the consumer should carry out the sustainable consumption mode,the enterprise should build up produce system of the sustainable consumption mode,the non-governmental organization should play active role in the sustainable consumption mode.
引文
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