现金流量信息在企业财务危机预测中的应用研究
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摘要
企业财务危机预测模型的建立,人们更多使用了以资产负债表与利润表为基础的传统财务指标,然而在企业财务危机预测中现金流量状况的影响力可能更大。本文针对现金流量指标和传统财务指标进行研究,分析现金流量指标的优越性;搭建以现金流量为基础以及以传统指标为基础的指标体系,利用2002-2006年沪深两市工业类上市公司财务报表数据,选取两组样本,运用因子分析以及逻辑回归的方法,分别建立两种财务危机预测模型,对比两种预测模型的预测结果,分析这两种预测方法的差别及其对于企业财务危机预测能力的强弱,说明现金流量信息在企业财务危机预测中的现实意义,为今后企业财务危机预测体系的进一步完善做出探索性的工作。
People prefer using traditional financial index based on the balance sheet and the income statement in setting up the financial crisis forecast models.But the cash situation may influence more in the financial crisis forecast.This paper studies on the cash flow index together with the traditional financial index,and analyzes the advantages of the cash flow index.Then builds two index systems based on the cash flow information and the traditional financial information.Using the listed companies' finance reports 2002-2006,this paper selects two samples,and builds two sets of financial crisis forecast models using the factorial analysis and logistic regression.Comparing the results of the two financial crisis forecast models and analyzing the differences between the two models together with the predictive ability,this paper explains the significance of the cash flow information in the financial crisis forecast,to make some explorative contributions for the further consummation work of the financial crisis forecast system.
People prefer using traditional financial index based on the balance sheet and the income statement in setting up the financial crisis forecast models.But the cash situation may influence more in the financial crisis forecast.This paper studies on the cash flow index together with the traditional financial index,and analyzes the advantages of the cash flow index.Then builds two index systems based on the cash flow information and the traditional financial information.Using the listed companies' finance reports 2002-2006,this paper selects two samples,and builds two sets of financial crisis forecast models using the factorial analysis and logistic regression.Comparing the results of the two financial crisis forecast models and analyzing the differences between the two models together with the predictive ability,this paper explains the significance of the cash flow information in the financial crisis forecast,to make some explorative contributions for the further consummation work of the financial crisis forecast system.
引文
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[17]Edward I.Altman.Financial Ratios,Discriminant Analysis.and Prediction of Corporate Bankruptcy.Journal of Finance,1968(23):589-609
[19]Mark E Znijewski.Methodological Issues Related to the Estimation of Financial Distress Prediction Mode.Journal of Accounting Research,1984
[19]程涛.财务预警模型综述.山西财经大学学报.2003(5):104-107
[20]陈志斌,韩飞畴.基于价值创造的现金流管理.会计研究,2002(12):45-50
[21]胡志强,田盈.主成分分析法在公司综合评价中的应用.经济与法,2007(3):304-305
[22]李艳双,等.主成份分析法在多元指标综合评价中的应用.河北工业大学学报,1999(1):28-31
[23]王明吉,白亚丽.构建财务预警系统防范企业财务危机.商业经济与管理,2004(3):40-43
[24]胡永宏,贺思辉.综合评价方法.科学出版社,2000
[25]齐治平,余妙志.Logistic模型在上市公司财务状况评价中的运用.东北财经大学学报,2002(1):60-63
[26]梁琪.企业经营管理预警:主成分分析在Logistic回归方法中的应用.管理工程学报,2005(1):100-103
[27]潘群峰,王月玮.企业财务预警系统方法研究.化工技术经济,2003(12):32-33
[28]张文彤.世界优秀统计工具SPSS11统计分析高级教程.北京希望电子出版社,2002
[29]陈红,徐融.论ST公司的财务关注域及分析框架的构建.会计研究,1999(9):47-52
[30]陆建桥.中国亏损上市公司盈余管理实证研究.会计研究,1999(9):25-35
[2]William H.Beaver.Financial Ratios as Predictors of Failure.Empirical Research in Accounting,Selected Studies.1966(Institute of Professional Accounting,January,1967),71-111
[3]Edward I.Altman,Robert G.Haldeman,P.Narayanan.ZETA ANALYSIS:A new model to identify bankruptcy risk of corporations.Journal of Banking and Finance,1977:29-54
[4]Deakin,E.B..A Discriminant Analysis of Prediction of Business Failure.Journal of Accounting Research,1972:167-169
[5]Ohlson J.S..Financial Ratios and the Probabilistic Prediction of Bankruptcy.Journal of Accounting Research,1980(19):109-131
[6]Halina Frydman,Edward I.Ahman,Duen-Li Kao.Introducing Recursive Partitioning for Financial Classification:The Case of Financial Distress.Journal of Finance,1985(40)
[7]Pamela K.Coats,L.Franklin Fant.A Neural Network.Approach to Forecasting Financial Distress.The Journal of Bussiness Forecasting,1991
[8]Edmister Robert.Financial Ratios as Discriminant Predictors of Small Business Failure.Journal of Finance,1972(27)
[9]Aziz A.D..Emanuel and G.L.awson.Bank Prediction:An Investigation of Cash Flow Based Models.Journal of Management Studies,1988(25):419-437
[10]吴世农,卢义.我国上市公司财务困境的预测模型研究.经济研究,2001(6):46-55
[11]陈静.上市公司财务恶化预测的实证分析.会计研究,1999(4):31-38
[12]张玲.财务危机预警分析判别模型.数量经济技术经济研究,2000(3):49-51
[13]陈晓,陈治鸿.中国上市公司的财务困境预测.中国会计与财务研究,2000(9):55-72
[14]黄小原,肖四汉.神经网络预警系统及其在企业运行中的应用.系统工程与电子技术,1995(10):50-58
[15]杨宝安,季海,徐晶等.BP神经网络在企业财务危机预警之应用.预测,2001(2):49-54
[16]柳炳祥,盛昭翰.给予神经网络的企业财务危机预警方法.中国工程科学,2002(8):58-62
[17]Edward I.Altman.Financial Ratios,Discriminant Analysis.and Prediction of Corporate Bankruptcy.Journal of Finance,1968(23):589-609
[19]Mark E Znijewski.Methodological Issues Related to the Estimation of Financial Distress Prediction Mode.Journal of Accounting Research,1984
[19]程涛.财务预警模型综述.山西财经大学学报.2003(5):104-107
[20]陈志斌,韩飞畴.基于价值创造的现金流管理.会计研究,2002(12):45-50
[21]胡志强,田盈.主成分分析法在公司综合评价中的应用.经济与法,2007(3):304-305
[22]李艳双,等.主成份分析法在多元指标综合评价中的应用.河北工业大学学报,1999(1):28-31
[23]王明吉,白亚丽.构建财务预警系统防范企业财务危机.商业经济与管理,2004(3):40-43
[24]胡永宏,贺思辉.综合评价方法.科学出版社,2000
[25]齐治平,余妙志.Logistic模型在上市公司财务状况评价中的运用.东北财经大学学报,2002(1):60-63
[26]梁琪.企业经营管理预警:主成分分析在Logistic回归方法中的应用.管理工程学报,2005(1):100-103
[27]潘群峰,王月玮.企业财务预警系统方法研究.化工技术经济,2003(12):32-33
[28]张文彤.世界优秀统计工具SPSS11统计分析高级教程.北京希望电子出版社,2002
[29]陈红,徐融.论ST公司的财务关注域及分析框架的构建.会计研究,1999(9):47-52
[30]陆建桥.中国亏损上市公司盈余管理实证研究.会计研究,1999(9):25-35