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金融发展与收入分配:理论及中国的经验研究
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摘要
改革开放三十多年来,中国经济取得了举世瞩目的成就。然而,在经济持续增长、人均收入稳步提升的同时,居民收入差距不断扩大,劳动收入份额快速下降,成为影响长期增长和社会稳定的隐忧。古语云:“不患寡而患不均”。如何让经济增长成果惠及更多人呢?这已成为社会各界关注的焦点。金融是整个经济的命脉,对经济增长具有显著的促进作用。金融也是一种分配机制,对资源和财富具有分配和再分配功能。本研究旨在厘清金融发展与收入分配之间的关系,从理论和实证角度综合考察金融发展对中国收入分配的影响。如果说金融的快速发展是收入分配变化的重要因素之一,那么理解这一机制产生的原因、形成过程并对金融发展的影响进行量化研究,无疑会增加人们对影响收入分配的金融因素的认识,也有利于全面评价金融在经济发展中的作用。
     全文一共分为八章:第1章提出论文所要研究的问题,第2章综述相关文献资料。第3章对金融发展影响收入分配的作用机制进行理论分析,第4章分别测算金融发展、收入不平等、劳动收入份额等主要变量为后续的经验研究提供基础数据。第5-6章利用省级面板数据实证分析金融发展与居民收入分配的关系,第7章探讨金融发展对要素收入分配的影响。第8章为结论以及制定相应的政策安排。
     对于金融发展与收入分配这一主题的研究,学术界的探索多于共识。论文在现有文献的基础上,结合中国的金融发展状态、金融制度安排,分别从微观和宏观两个层面分析金融发展对中国收入分配的影响路径。微观层面来说,不同个体的初始财富不同,面对不同的信贷约束和金融服务获得,金融发展影响个体的投资决策、个体的职业选择及资本积累的涓滴效应进而作用于财富分配;宏观层面来说,金融发展通过劳动力市场影响工资收入差距,同时金融抑制、金融非均衡发展等因素会扩大收入差距。概言之,我国金融发展是不完善的,其未必能够缩小收入分配不平等。
     在理论分析的基础上,运用线性面板模型实证研究金融发展对居民收入分配的影响。结果表明,金融发展与收入不平等显著正相关,是中国居民收入分配状况恶化的重要原因之一。金融业竞争程度或信贷资金分配市场化程度越高,基尼系数值越大。若仅以线性模型的分析结果得出结论,可能会缺失重要的发现,论文对金融发展与居民收入分配之间可能存在的非线性关系进行拓展研究。首先,金融发展与居民收入分配的库兹涅茨效应得到证实:伴随金融发展水平的提高,收入不平等呈现先上升后下降的倒U型趋势。然而,从整体上看,中国金融发展还处于较低水平,大部分省份尚未跨越拐点,仍然位于倒U型曲线的上行区间,收入不平等还将进一步扩大。其次,基于门槛回归模型的分析发现,金融发展的分配效应与经济发展水平密切相关,不同区制下金融发展的影响呈现非单调的“双门槛特征”,其正向效应随着经济发展逐渐加强,之后又趋于减弱。
     收入分配具有两个维度:规模性收入分配(居民收入分配)与功能性收入分配(要素收入分配)。论文进一步探讨金融发展对要素收入分配的影响,发现其对劳动收入份额呈现显著的负向效应,这从金融发展视角解读了中国劳动收入份额持续下降的现象。鉴于基尼系数与劳动收入份额反方向变动,论文的发现也为不断扩大的居民收入差距提供了更深层次的解释。
     根据研究结论,论文针对如何发挥金融体系改善收入分配的功能,提出相应的政策建议:优化金融制度安排,增加金融服务可得性,推动金融业竞争,逐步推进利率市场化进程,建设功能良好的资本市场,完善政策性金融体系,同时,应该重视金融与其他经济变量的互补匹配关系。
During more than three decades of reform and opening up, China's economy has made remarkable achievement, per capita income is steadily rising. However, income gap is widening and labor income share is falling sharply at the same time.It has threatened China's long-term growth and social stability. As the old saying goes,"Don't worry about the amount of resources, worry about the distribution." How to make more people share the fruits of economic growth? Naturally, the issue has become the focus of recent debate. As the lifeblood of the economy, finance has played a significant role in promoting economic growth. Also, finance is a kind of distribution mechanism, it has the function of distributing and redistributing resources and wealth. This dissertation aims to indicate the relationship between financial development and income distribution, investigate the impact of financial development on China's income distribution from the theoretical and empirical perspective. If the fast financial development is one of the important factors for changes of income distribution, to understand the mechanism、formation process and do some quantitative analysis will undoubtedly help us recognize the financial cause and evaluate the role of finance in economic development.
     This dissertation is made of eight chapters.Chapter1brings forward the research questions and Chapter2reviews the theoretical and empirical literatures. In Chapter3, we analyze theoretically how financial development affects income distribution. Chapter4goes into detail to measure financial development, income inequality and labor income share, which serve as a concrete base for later use. Chapter5to6use Chinese provincial-level panel data to investigate the finance-inequality nexus. Chapter7focuses on the impact of financial development on factor income distribution. Conclusive remarks and policy implications are presented in Chapter8.
     There is no consensus on the relationship between financial development and income distribution. Basing on the existing literatures, we combine China's financial institutional arrangement and the state of financial development to analyze how income distribution is affected by financial development in the micro and macro levels. For the micro level, individuals' initial wealth are different, they face different credit constraint and financial service. Financial development will affect individuals' investment decision and career choice, and the trickle-down effect of capital accumulation, thereby affect wealth distribution; for the macro level, it will affect the supply and demand in the labor market, meanwhile, financial repression and uneven financial development will widen income gap. Financial development is not perfect in China, it may not help to narrow income inequality.
     Basing on the theoretical analysis, we apply linear model to test the relationship between them. The results show that, it suggests a significantly positive correlation between financial development and residents' income inequality. Higher degree of the competition in financial sector and the market-oriented credit allocation are associated with increases in Gini coefficient. If we get the conclusion only according to the results of linear model, maybe some important discovery will be missed. We continue to extend the study on its nonlinear effects in the sixed chapter. The results confirm there exist Kuznets effect between financial development and residents' income distribution. It is that income inequality changes in a simulated inverted U-shaped curve as financial development is deepening. However, from an overall point of view, China's financial development is sill at a lower level. Most provinces have not yet crossed the inflection point, they are still in the uplink interval of the curve. Furthermore, based on threshold regression model, we find that the distributional effect of financial development is closely related with the level of economic development, it shows non-monotonic dual-threshold characteristics in different regions. As the economy is developing, its positive effect gradually strengthen, and then tend to weaken.
     Income distribution has two dimension, that is, size of income distribution (residents' income distribution) and functional distribution of income (factor income distribution). In the seventh chapter, we examine the impact of financial development on factor income distribution. The result shows that, financial development has a significantly negative effect on labor share. This explains the declining labor share from the perspective of financial development. In view of the reverse change in Gini coefficient and labor share, our finding will provide a deeper explanation for income inequality.
     On the basis of the conclusions above, we get some corresponding policy implications.To narrow income inequality, it is necessary to optimize the arrangement of financial system, make it easy for the poor to reach financial services, promote the competition in financial sector, gradually push forward the marketization process of interest rate, build a well-functioning capital market, and improve the policy-oriented financial system. Finally, the government should pay attention to the complementary match between finance and other economic variables.
引文
1 夏业良.中国1%家庭掌握全国41.4%财富集中度超过美国[EB/OL].凤凰网,2010-06-08.http://news.ifeng.com/mainland/special/shourufenpeigaige/content-2/detail_2010_06/08/1598280_0.shtml
    2 詹清荣.影响收入分配的几大热点问题[EB/OL].新华网,2013-03-21.http://news.xinhuanet.com/politics/2013-03/21/c_124487203.htm
    3 世界银行指出城乡收入差距是导致中国收入不平等的主要因素。数据是作者根据《新中国六十年统计资料汇编》计算而得。
    4 中国社科院发布2008年《社会蓝皮书》[EB/OL].中国新闻网,2008-01-03.http://www.chinanews.com/gn/news/2008/01-03/1122231.shtml
    5 根据中国统计年鉴数据计算获得。
    6 资料来源:《中国银行业监督管理委员会2011年报》。
    10 摸着石头寻出{路中国金融业十载终成器[EB/OL].中国金融网,2012-11-08.http://www.zgjrw.com/News/2012118/home/577385249201.shtml
    11 我国M2首破100万亿元近15年M2数据盘点[EB/OL].中国日报网,2013-04-11.http://microreading.chinadaily.com.cn/hqcj/zgjj/2013-04-11/content_8734856.html
    12 郭树清.不改善金融结构中国经济将没有出路[EB/OL].中央政府门户网站,2012-06-29.http://www.gov.cn/gzdt/2012-06/29/content_2173584.htm
    13 此处与King and Levine (1993)中PC指标的第一种·计算方法相同。
    14 樊纲,王小鲁,朱恒鹏.中国市场化指数——各地区市场化相对进程2011年十报告[M].北京:经济科学出版社,2011.
    16 根据世界银行的数据,2010年全球基尼系数平均值为0.44[EB/OL].人民网,2012-12-10.http://sc.people.com.cn/n/2012/1210/c346366-17837231.html
    17 夏业良.中国1%家庭掌握全国41.4%财富集中度超过美国[EB/OL].凤凰网,2010-06-08.http://news.ifeng.com/mainland/special/shourufenpeigaige/content-2/detail_2010_06/08/1598280_0.shtml
    21 根据《中国统汁年鉴》数据计算得到。
    22 收入倍增共享幸福[EB/O L].人民网,2012-11-11.http://cpc.people.com.cn/18/n/2012/1111/C351073-19539344.html?_fin
    23 国家统计局国民经济核算司编.中国地区投入产出表[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2011.
    24 白重恩,钱震杰.国民收入的要素分配:统计数据背后的故事[J].绎济研究,2009a(3):27-41.
    25 按照国家统计局给出的指标解释,劳动者报酬是指劳动者…从事生产活动所获得的全部报酬。包括劳动者获得的各种形式的工资、奖金和津贴,既包括货币形式的,也包括实物形式的,还包括劳动者所享受的公费医疗和医药卫生费、上下班交通补贴、单位支付的社会保险费、住房公积金等。生产税净额是指生产税减生产补贴后的余额,足政府对生产单位从事生产、销售和经济活动以及因从事生产活动使用某些生产要素(如固定资产、土地、劳动力)所征收的各种税、附加费和规费。固定资产折旧指一定时期内为弥补固定资产损耗按照规定的折旧率提取的固定资产折旧,或按国民经济核算统一规定的折旧率虚拟计算的固定资产折旧。它反映了固定资产在当期生产中的转移价值。营业盈余指常住单位创造的增加值扣除劳动者报酬、生产税净额和固定资产折旧后的余额。它相当于企业的营业利润加上生产补贴.但要扣除从利润中开支的丁资和福利等(国家统汁局,2()11)。
    26 这里的个体劳动者的收入既包括农民的家庭经营性收入,也包括城镇个体工商户的经营性收入。
    27 国家统计局国民经济核算同.年度GDP核算方案(试行),国家统计局核算司,2006.
    28 李稻葵.中国经济一在发生静悄悄的革金[EB/OL].新财富,2013-01-16.http://www.xcf.cn/tt2/201301/t20130116_398425.htm
    29 更洋细的处理过程可参考:周明海.中国劳动收入份额变动的测度与机理分析[D].浙江大学博士学位论义,2011.
    32 张晓峒.应用数量经济学[M].北京:机械工业出版社,2009,第313-340页
    35 郭树清.我国资本市场的成就、问题和前景[EB/OL].2012-10-22.http://politics.people.com.cn/n/2012/1022/c1001-19343328.html
    36 资料来源:殷剑峰.中国金融发展水平的国际比较与上海国际金融中心建设[J].金融评论,2011(1):44-60.
    37 王文彪.去年非公经济对GDP的页献率达到60%[EB/OL].中国网,2011-03-06.http://www.china.com.cn/2011/2011-03/06/content_22068220.htm
    38 2011年全国小微企业贷款余额达15万亿元[EB/OL].财经网,2012-04-28.http://finance.caijing.com.cn/2012-04-28/111831784.html
    41 中国社科院发布2008年《社会蓝皮书》[EB/OL].中国新闻网,2008-01-03.http://www.chinanews.com/gn/news/2008/01-03/1122231.shtml
    42 关十我国劳动力收入份额的基础数据、测算方法和结果,本文在第三章第三节做了祥细说明。
    43 资料来源:《中国银行业监督管理委员会2011年报》。
    44 详情可翻阅《中国统汁年鉴》(2009年)。
    46 中国银监会办公厅关于做好2013年农村金融服务工作的通知[EB/O L].中国银监会网站,2013-02-19.http://www.cbrc.gov.cn/chinese/home/docView/DFE5AB17109640328DDB1BE3A223228C.html
    47 资料来源:《稳步推进利率市场化报告》,中国人民银行。
    48 贷款利率下限可至0.7倍[EB/OL].人民网,2012-07-06.http://finance.people.com.cn/n/2012/0706/c70846-18455583.html
    49 两会牵念资本市场2013七大期待[EB/OL].新华网,2013-03-08.http://news.xinhuanet.com/fortune/2013-03/08/c_124431789.htm
    50 詹清荣.影响收入分配的几大热点问题[EB/OL].新华网,2013-03-21.http://news.xinhuanet.com/politics/2013-03/21/c_124487203.htm
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