我国经济周期波动与产业结构变动的关联性研究
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摘要
在经济学理论研究中,产业结构变动一直以来就是理论界长盛不衰的热门研究话题。国内外经济学者通常把产业结构变动视为不同历史阶段中经济增长的产物,并认为产业结构变动对经济增长有促进或制约作用。经济周期波动作为社会经济运动的一种重要形式,是总量经济增长的具体表现形式,自以机器大生产为标志的商品经济走上社会经济舞台以来,就受到国内外理论界的广泛关注。但诸多对经济周期波动与产业结构变动问题的研究基本上是分割开来进行的,即使存在少量关于经济周期波动与产业结构变动关系的研究,其研究方法和结论也存在一定的分歧,但他们的研究基本上认同这样一个观点,即产业结构变动是经济波动的内在性过程,产业结构变动与经济增长存在重要的关联性。
有鉴于此,本文在前人相关研究成果的基础上进一步发现,经济增长波动与产业结构变动的相互影响关系,主要体现为经济周期波动与产业结构变动关系。而且我们还利用中国的经验数据深入探讨经济周期波动与产业结构变动的关系。利用系统经济学理论等理论和现代计量经济学等分析方法,本文首先从总体上确定我国经济周期波动与产业结构变动存在双向影响的Granger因果关系,进而分析历次经济周期阶段中的产业结构变动,以及产业结构变动对经济周期波动的影响,并给出经济周期波动与产业结构变动的主要联动机制,最后提出我国实现产业结构良性藕合下宏观经济又好又快发展的政策建议。
首先,本文对经济周期波动与产业结构变动的理论基础和相关文献进行归纳概括。通过对宏观经济周期波动和中观产业结构变动关系的思考,我们认为经济周期阶段理论、产业结构演变理论是本文研究的基础理论,而经济长期波动与产业结构变迁理论、系统经济学则是本文研究的重要理论基础。对国内外相关文献的综述主要是从以下三个维度展开的,即先对工业经济时代经济增长波动与产业结构变动之间的关系进行归纳总结,再分析新经济时代经济周期波动与产业结构变动的关系,最后概括我国经济周期波动与产业结构变动关系研究的相关文献。
其次,笔者从宏观层面判断中国经济周期波动与产业结构变动的关联性,认为我国经济周期波动与产业结构变动之间存在相互影响的Granger因果关联性。在对我国经济周期波动与产业结构变动关系进行直观描述统计分析后,我们分别构建经济周期波动指标和产业结构变动指标,并在此基础上对我国经济周期波动与产业结构变动进行因果关系检验。Granger因果关系检验和动态计量分析表明,我国经济周期波动是影响产业结构变动的显著原因,中国产业结构变动对经济周期波动也存在显著影响,而且这种影响作用非常大,其影响力系数高达0.6115。
再次,我们深入探讨中国历次经济周期阶段中的产业结构变动,认为中国经济周期波动不仅对宏观三次产业结构变动存在影响作用,而且还同时影响三次产业内部行业结构,并且这种影响作用主要表现为宏观经济的周期性扩张和收缩,引致三次产业结构及其内部行业结构的藕合方向和变动力度。在此过程中,我们还结合我国不同历史时期的经验和事实进行了具体分析。
接着,本文还从实证分析的角度探讨我国产业结构变动对经济周期波动的影响。在明确我国宏观三次产业和各主要行业部门在经济增长波动中的贡献之后,我们利用现代计量经济分析方法分别考察我国产业结构变动对经济周期波动的协同性影响、非对称性影响,最后还通过VAR模型分析我国产业部门结构变动对经济周期波动的影响。
最后,本文从理论角度探讨我国经济周期波动与产业结构变动之间的联动机制,即从理论视角分析中国宏观经济周期波动与中观产业结构变动的传导机制。在结合中国经济周期波动与产业结构变动的互动影响的经验事实基础上,我们认为“‘收入—消费’机制”、“‘利率—投资’机制”、“‘技术—结构导向’机制”和“‘国际贸易—国际金融’机制”是宏观经济周期波动与中观产业结构变动的主要传导机制,而且在我国不同历史时期经济周期阶段,这四种主要联动机制发挥的作用不尽相同,但它们往往是相互配合共同发挥作用的。
本文的理论价值在于初步探索宏观经济与中观产业结构的关联性,试图提出宏观经济与中观产业结构经济的理论基础和中介联系机制,这对于中观产业结构寻求宏观经济理论基础具有一定的理论意义,从而有助于真正将总量经济理论与结构经济理论有机结合起来。本论文的实际价值是从定性和定量角度系统地探讨1953—2007年间中国经济周期波动与产业结构变动的关联性,研究结果表明中国经济周期波动和产业结构变动存在Granger因果关联性,这对于我国在科学发展观指引下同时实现产业结构的良性藕合和宏观经济的又好又快发展意义重大。
Industrial structure change, which is an unfailing topic in the economists, is generally regarded by economists as the result of economic growth at different historical stages and meanwhile has stimulative or restrictive effects on the latter. As an important form of socioeconomic movement, economic cycle fluctuation is the concrete modality of overall economic growth, and has attracted wide public concerns among theorists both at home and abroad since commodity economy appeared characterized by mass production by machines. Generally speaking, researches on economic cycle fluctuation and on industrial structure change are carried on respectively, even if there are a few studies on the relationship between the two, the research techniques and results of which have a great number of divergences, but they all agree that industrial structure change is the endogenous process of economic fluctuation, and that the two have some important relationships.
Under such circumstances, based on those existing researches, this dissertation makes a further research that the interactional relationship between economic fluctuation and industrial structure change is embodied as the correlation between economic cycle fluctuation and industrial structure change. Furthermore, we investigate the relationship between economic cycle fluctuation and industrial structure change by using data in China. By the way of theory of system economics and modern econometrics and so on, we firstly ascertain the granger causality relationship between the economic cycle fluctuation and industrial structure change in China at the macroscopic point of view, then analyse the industrial structure change during all previous business cycle stages and investigate the effect of industrial structure change to economic cycle fluctuation. Afterward it shows the main linkages of China’s economic cycle fluctuation and the industrial structure change. In the end, we propose some countermeasures about how to realize sound and rapid macroeconomic growth accompanied by the optimization of the industrial structure.
First of all, we present a summary about the theoretical foundation and associated literature on economic cycle fluctuation and industrial structure change. Through the analysis on the relationship between macroeconomic cycle fluctuation and middle industrial structure change, we conclude that the phases of business cycle theory, the theory of industrial structure evolution are the basic theories of this dissertation, while the theory on economic long wave and industrial structure evolvement, and system economics are the directly theoretical sources and foundations. The overview of related literature from home and aboard is organized as the following three aspects: at first, we summarize the relationship of economic fluctuation and industrial structure change in the era of industry economy, then analyze the relationship between economic cycle fluctuation and industrial structure change in the age of new economy, finally epitomize the related literature on economic cycle fluctuation and industrial structure change in China.
Secondly, we ascertain relationship between the economic cycle fluctuation and the industrial structure change in China from the macroscopic point of view, and [0]find that China’s economic cycle fluctuation and industrial structure change have interactive granger causality relationship. After the intuitively descriptive statistic analysis on the relationship between economic cycle fluctuation and industrial structure change in China, we construct indices of economic cycle fluctuation and of industrial structure change respectively, based on which we also make a granger causality test on China’s economic cycle fluctuation and industrial structure change. The granger causality test and dynamic econometric analysis both show that China’s economic cycle fluctuation is a significant factor that affects industrial structure change, meanwhile China’s industrial structure change has a significant impact on economic cycle fluctuation, to which the influence coefficient humps up to striking 0.6115.
Thirdly, we make a further discussion on the industrial structure change at all previous business cycle stages, and conclude that China’s economic cycle fluctuation affects not only macro three industrial structure change, but also the internal structure change of various industrial sectors in“three industry”, besides, such effects are mainly showed in these ways: the rhythmic contraction and expansion of macroeconomy renders the coupled direction and changing intensity of three industrial structure and its industrial sectors internal structure. Furthermore, we make a concrete analysis connected with the experience and the fact of different historical periods in China.
Next, this dissertation explores the effect of industrial structure change on economic cycle fluctuation in China from the perspective of empirical analysis. After recognizing the contributions of our country’s three macro industries and their main industrial sectors to economic growth fluctuation, we investigate the co-movement effect and asymmetric effect of China’s industrial structure change on economic cycle fluctuation by ways of modern econometric methods. Finally we also analyze the effect of China’s industrial sectors internal structure change on economic cycle fluctuation through VAR model.
In the end, We explores the linkages between China’s economic cycle fluctuation and industrial structure change from the theoretical angle, in other words, in the theoretical perspective, we analyze the transmission mechanisms of macroeconomic cycle fluctuation and middle industrial structure change. Based on the experiences and the facts about the interaction of economic cycle fluctuation and industrial structure change in China, we think that“‘income-consumption’mechanism”,“‘interest rate-investment’mechanism”,“‘technology-structure oriented’mechanism”and“‘international trade-international finance’mechanism”are the major transmission mechanisms of macroeconomic cycle fluctuation and middle industrial structure change. Furthermore, during variant phases of business cycle in different historical periods in China, the four major linkages play different roles, but they usually contribute to collective functions.
The theoretical merit lies in its trying to explore the correlation of macroeconomic cycle fluctuation and middle industrial structure change preliminarily, and to put forward the theoretical foundations and intermediary linkage mechanisms of overall economy and middle industrial structure economy. As far as middle industrial structure is concerned, it has a certain degree of theoretical meaning to seek for macroeconomic theoretical foundation, so as to integrate overall economy theory and structure economy theory organicly. While the practical value of this dissertation is that it attempts to study systematically the correlation of economic cycle fluctuation and industrial structure change in China from the qualitative and quantitative angles during the years from 1953 to 2007. The result of this research shows that there is a granger causality correlation between economic cycle fluctuation and industrial structure change in China, which is very meaningful for realization industrial structure’s healthy couple and sound & rapid macroeconomic growth simultaneously under the leadership of scientific outlook on development.
有鉴于此,本文在前人相关研究成果的基础上进一步发现,经济增长波动与产业结构变动的相互影响关系,主要体现为经济周期波动与产业结构变动关系。而且我们还利用中国的经验数据深入探讨经济周期波动与产业结构变动的关系。利用系统经济学理论等理论和现代计量经济学等分析方法,本文首先从总体上确定我国经济周期波动与产业结构变动存在双向影响的Granger因果关系,进而分析历次经济周期阶段中的产业结构变动,以及产业结构变动对经济周期波动的影响,并给出经济周期波动与产业结构变动的主要联动机制,最后提出我国实现产业结构良性藕合下宏观经济又好又快发展的政策建议。
首先,本文对经济周期波动与产业结构变动的理论基础和相关文献进行归纳概括。通过对宏观经济周期波动和中观产业结构变动关系的思考,我们认为经济周期阶段理论、产业结构演变理论是本文研究的基础理论,而经济长期波动与产业结构变迁理论、系统经济学则是本文研究的重要理论基础。对国内外相关文献的综述主要是从以下三个维度展开的,即先对工业经济时代经济增长波动与产业结构变动之间的关系进行归纳总结,再分析新经济时代经济周期波动与产业结构变动的关系,最后概括我国经济周期波动与产业结构变动关系研究的相关文献。
其次,笔者从宏观层面判断中国经济周期波动与产业结构变动的关联性,认为我国经济周期波动与产业结构变动之间存在相互影响的Granger因果关联性。在对我国经济周期波动与产业结构变动关系进行直观描述统计分析后,我们分别构建经济周期波动指标和产业结构变动指标,并在此基础上对我国经济周期波动与产业结构变动进行因果关系检验。Granger因果关系检验和动态计量分析表明,我国经济周期波动是影响产业结构变动的显著原因,中国产业结构变动对经济周期波动也存在显著影响,而且这种影响作用非常大,其影响力系数高达0.6115。
再次,我们深入探讨中国历次经济周期阶段中的产业结构变动,认为中国经济周期波动不仅对宏观三次产业结构变动存在影响作用,而且还同时影响三次产业内部行业结构,并且这种影响作用主要表现为宏观经济的周期性扩张和收缩,引致三次产业结构及其内部行业结构的藕合方向和变动力度。在此过程中,我们还结合我国不同历史时期的经验和事实进行了具体分析。
接着,本文还从实证分析的角度探讨我国产业结构变动对经济周期波动的影响。在明确我国宏观三次产业和各主要行业部门在经济增长波动中的贡献之后,我们利用现代计量经济分析方法分别考察我国产业结构变动对经济周期波动的协同性影响、非对称性影响,最后还通过VAR模型分析我国产业部门结构变动对经济周期波动的影响。
最后,本文从理论角度探讨我国经济周期波动与产业结构变动之间的联动机制,即从理论视角分析中国宏观经济周期波动与中观产业结构变动的传导机制。在结合中国经济周期波动与产业结构变动的互动影响的经验事实基础上,我们认为“‘收入—消费’机制”、“‘利率—投资’机制”、“‘技术—结构导向’机制”和“‘国际贸易—国际金融’机制”是宏观经济周期波动与中观产业结构变动的主要传导机制,而且在我国不同历史时期经济周期阶段,这四种主要联动机制发挥的作用不尽相同,但它们往往是相互配合共同发挥作用的。
本文的理论价值在于初步探索宏观经济与中观产业结构的关联性,试图提出宏观经济与中观产业结构经济的理论基础和中介联系机制,这对于中观产业结构寻求宏观经济理论基础具有一定的理论意义,从而有助于真正将总量经济理论与结构经济理论有机结合起来。本论文的实际价值是从定性和定量角度系统地探讨1953—2007年间中国经济周期波动与产业结构变动的关联性,研究结果表明中国经济周期波动和产业结构变动存在Granger因果关联性,这对于我国在科学发展观指引下同时实现产业结构的良性藕合和宏观经济的又好又快发展意义重大。
Industrial structure change, which is an unfailing topic in the economists, is generally regarded by economists as the result of economic growth at different historical stages and meanwhile has stimulative or restrictive effects on the latter. As an important form of socioeconomic movement, economic cycle fluctuation is the concrete modality of overall economic growth, and has attracted wide public concerns among theorists both at home and abroad since commodity economy appeared characterized by mass production by machines. Generally speaking, researches on economic cycle fluctuation and on industrial structure change are carried on respectively, even if there are a few studies on the relationship between the two, the research techniques and results of which have a great number of divergences, but they all agree that industrial structure change is the endogenous process of economic fluctuation, and that the two have some important relationships.
Under such circumstances, based on those existing researches, this dissertation makes a further research that the interactional relationship between economic fluctuation and industrial structure change is embodied as the correlation between economic cycle fluctuation and industrial structure change. Furthermore, we investigate the relationship between economic cycle fluctuation and industrial structure change by using data in China. By the way of theory of system economics and modern econometrics and so on, we firstly ascertain the granger causality relationship between the economic cycle fluctuation and industrial structure change in China at the macroscopic point of view, then analyse the industrial structure change during all previous business cycle stages and investigate the effect of industrial structure change to economic cycle fluctuation. Afterward it shows the main linkages of China’s economic cycle fluctuation and the industrial structure change. In the end, we propose some countermeasures about how to realize sound and rapid macroeconomic growth accompanied by the optimization of the industrial structure.
First of all, we present a summary about the theoretical foundation and associated literature on economic cycle fluctuation and industrial structure change. Through the analysis on the relationship between macroeconomic cycle fluctuation and middle industrial structure change, we conclude that the phases of business cycle theory, the theory of industrial structure evolution are the basic theories of this dissertation, while the theory on economic long wave and industrial structure evolvement, and system economics are the directly theoretical sources and foundations. The overview of related literature from home and aboard is organized as the following three aspects: at first, we summarize the relationship of economic fluctuation and industrial structure change in the era of industry economy, then analyze the relationship between economic cycle fluctuation and industrial structure change in the age of new economy, finally epitomize the related literature on economic cycle fluctuation and industrial structure change in China.
Secondly, we ascertain relationship between the economic cycle fluctuation and the industrial structure change in China from the macroscopic point of view, and [0]find that China’s economic cycle fluctuation and industrial structure change have interactive granger causality relationship. After the intuitively descriptive statistic analysis on the relationship between economic cycle fluctuation and industrial structure change in China, we construct indices of economic cycle fluctuation and of industrial structure change respectively, based on which we also make a granger causality test on China’s economic cycle fluctuation and industrial structure change. The granger causality test and dynamic econometric analysis both show that China’s economic cycle fluctuation is a significant factor that affects industrial structure change, meanwhile China’s industrial structure change has a significant impact on economic cycle fluctuation, to which the influence coefficient humps up to striking 0.6115.
Thirdly, we make a further discussion on the industrial structure change at all previous business cycle stages, and conclude that China’s economic cycle fluctuation affects not only macro three industrial structure change, but also the internal structure change of various industrial sectors in“three industry”, besides, such effects are mainly showed in these ways: the rhythmic contraction and expansion of macroeconomy renders the coupled direction and changing intensity of three industrial structure and its industrial sectors internal structure. Furthermore, we make a concrete analysis connected with the experience and the fact of different historical periods in China.
Next, this dissertation explores the effect of industrial structure change on economic cycle fluctuation in China from the perspective of empirical analysis. After recognizing the contributions of our country’s three macro industries and their main industrial sectors to economic growth fluctuation, we investigate the co-movement effect and asymmetric effect of China’s industrial structure change on economic cycle fluctuation by ways of modern econometric methods. Finally we also analyze the effect of China’s industrial sectors internal structure change on economic cycle fluctuation through VAR model.
In the end, We explores the linkages between China’s economic cycle fluctuation and industrial structure change from the theoretical angle, in other words, in the theoretical perspective, we analyze the transmission mechanisms of macroeconomic cycle fluctuation and middle industrial structure change. Based on the experiences and the facts about the interaction of economic cycle fluctuation and industrial structure change in China, we think that“‘income-consumption’mechanism”,“‘interest rate-investment’mechanism”,“‘technology-structure oriented’mechanism”and“‘international trade-international finance’mechanism”are the major transmission mechanisms of macroeconomic cycle fluctuation and middle industrial structure change. Furthermore, during variant phases of business cycle in different historical periods in China, the four major linkages play different roles, but they usually contribute to collective functions.
The theoretical merit lies in its trying to explore the correlation of macroeconomic cycle fluctuation and middle industrial structure change preliminarily, and to put forward the theoretical foundations and intermediary linkage mechanisms of overall economy and middle industrial structure economy. As far as middle industrial structure is concerned, it has a certain degree of theoretical meaning to seek for macroeconomic theoretical foundation, so as to integrate overall economy theory and structure economy theory organicly. While the practical value of this dissertation is that it attempts to study systematically the correlation of economic cycle fluctuation and industrial structure change in China from the qualitative and quantitative angles during the years from 1953 to 2007. The result of this research shows that there is a granger causality correlation between economic cycle fluctuation and industrial structure change in China, which is very meaningful for realization industrial structure’s healthy couple and sound & rapid macroeconomic growth simultaneously under the leadership of scientific outlook on development.
引文
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