沥青路面预防性养护决策方法的研究与技术应用
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摘要
高等级公路是庞大的社会公共资产,路面预防性养护技术是提高公共资产的服务水平,实现资产保值和增值的重要技术手段。尽管路面预防性养护技术在美国等发达国家已得到了广泛的应用,然而在实际应用中,对于预防性养护技术的决策往往是基于工程师的主观经验。当前我国对于路面预防性养护技术的研究大多停留在具体养护措施的应用技术层面上,对于预防性养护决策技术的研究也同样未取得实质性进展。本文的研究目的即是试图深入揭示路面预防性养护技术的核心内涵,建立科学的、可量化的预防性养护技术决策体系,促进路面预防性养护技术在我国的推广与应用。研究的主要内容包括预防性养护技术的核心内涵、功能性和结构性应用效果评价、预防性养护的决策理论与方法、养护路段的划分方法、养护时机的确定方法以及预防性养护方案的设计方法等方面。
我国目前对预防性养护的理念和内涵仍未有统一的规定,本文将预防性养护技术的核心内涵总结为:第一,预防性养护技术是一种“未雨绸缪”式的技术;第二,预防性养护技术可修复路面功能性损坏,延缓结构性损坏;第三,预防性养护技术是在路面全寿命周期内多阶段、系统性的养护策略。
对预防性养护措施的应用效果进行评价,有助于奠定预防性养护决策的工程技术基础。本文从功能性和结构性两方面对预防性养护措施的应用效果进行了评价。在功能性评价方面,从密水和排水性能、抗车辙能力、抗滑能力和平整度的改善等角度,对雾封层、微表处、超薄磨耗层( UTAC-10和Novachip?)以及薄层热拌沥青混凝土(AC-13C、SMA-13、SMA-10以及OGFC-13)的应用效果进行了评价和对比,总结了这些养护措施的使用性能和适用条件,进而提出了养护措施的主要功能属性和附属功能属性的概念,明确了这些措施的各种功能属性。
在结构性效果评价方面,首先对实测弯沉盆进行了误差分析,证明了常用的x±ks方法处理误差数据的局限性,引入了t分布检验法用于误差检验。其次评价了温度对动态弯沉盆的影响,得出了相关的统计检验结果。随后考虑到跟踪检测数据的自相关性,建立了结构性效果评价的重复测量数据分析模型。最后利用该模型对雾封层、微表处和Novachip?试验段4年的FWD检测数据进行了分析,评价和对比了养护措施的结构性应用效果,分析结果发现,所评价的养护措施对于保护路面结构并未表现出积极作用。
目前对于预防性养护的决策大多是基于工程师的主观经验,本文在预防性养护决策理论的研究方面,引入了决策科学的相关理论,建立了标准的预防性养护决策模型,并从功能属性、适用条件、结构厚度、养护强度、路用性能、工程因素和用户因素七个方面对预防性养护措施的属性进行了度量和评价,建立了属性的无量纲化步骤。在预防性养护决策方法研究方面,首先对决策树法进行了改进,建立了决策树模型的应用步骤,并以广东省预防性养护决策树模型为实例,示范了决策树的建立过程。其次对加权法进行了改进,引入了主观赋值的SWING法和客观赋值的熵值法以及权重的修正方法。
传统的决策方法难以考虑预防性养护决策问题多目标、多属性的特点,具有较大的局限性。本文对决策科学中的相关理论进行了比选,最后根据现阶段我国预防性养护技术的实际特点,选择了层次分析理论作为预防性养护的决策技术,建立了该理论的标准应用步骤。并以效益、成本和风险为准则,以抗滑能力、平整度的改善、修复裂缝、业主成本、用户成本、质量风险、资金风险和工期风险为子准则,分别利用层次分析法和可以考虑反馈作用的网络层次分析法对6种预防性养护措施进行了选择,得到了相关的选择结果,并对结果进行了敏感性分析,证明了层次分析理论用于预防性养护决策问题的优越性。
公路的不同组成路段具有不同的养护需求,因此有必要对公路路段进行划分,以便精确地确定不同路段的养护需求。传统的路段划分方法具有很大的局限性,本文引入了聚类分析理论用于养护路段划分,建立了系统聚类法、动态聚类法和有序聚类法用于路段划分的标准步骤,提出了三种聚类分析方法的适用条件,对每种方法均以实例进行验证。
在养护时机研究方面,首先分析了目前我国关于养护时机判断指标的局限性,提出了养护需求时机和最佳养护时机的概念;其次建立了SFC、IRI、RD和CR用于养护需求时机的判断标准;再次评价了NCHRP研究中关于最佳养护时机的判断方法,指出了该方法的不足,提出了相关的改进意见;随后指出了目前我国在判断最佳预防性养护时机研究方面遇到的主要障碍,并提出了相关研究建议。
最后通过对所有研究成果的总结,提出了短期预防性养护方案和中长期预防性养护方案的设计思想,建立了两种方案的应用步骤和设计方法。
The highway of a country is huge public infrastructure assets, the pavement preventive maintenance is the important technological means of improving assets service level and realizing assets protection. Developed countries such as U.S.A. have already carried on systematic research to the pavement preventive maintenance lasted nearly 20 years, and the study on this technology of China starts relatively late, started around 2003. Although studies on pavement preventive maintenance of developed country such as U.S.A. have already lasted a lot of years, but subjective experience still occupies the main position in practical application. The research purpose herein is to attempt to announce the key intension of pavement preventive maintenance thoroughly, set up the scientific, quantized technological decision system of preventive maintenance, and promote this technology popularization and application in our country. The main content studied includes: key intension of the preventive maintenance, the evaluation of functional and structural effects of preventive maintenance treatment, the decision theory and method of asphalt pavement preventive maintenance, the division method of maintenance segments, the judgment method of maintenance timing, and the design method of preventive maintenance scheme.
The study on this technology of China starts relatively late, the idea and intension of preventive maintenance do not still have unified regulations so far, so the first problem of this text is to analyze and refine the key intension of preventive maintenance technology. The key intensions of preventive maintenance technology of this text were summarized that: First, preventive maintenance technology is a kind of active technology, used in the road surface with good state or only has a small amount of disease; Second, preventive maintenance technology can repair the functional damage of road surface, delay the structural damage of road surface, and it is unable to prevent the decay of the structural intensity of road surface; Third, preventive maintenance technology is many stages, systemic maintenance tactics within the whole life cycle of road surface, it is not merely the application of the single maintenance measure.
In the research of functional effect evaluation of preventive maintenance treatment, this paper have evaluated to fog seal, micro-surfacing, ultra thin friction course (UTAC-10 and Novachip?), thin HMA overlay (AC-13C, SMA-13, SMA-10 and OGFC-13) from respects such as water sealing and water draining, rut resistance ability, skidding resistance ability, and improving roughness, summarized performance and applicability of these preventive maintenance treatment, put forward the concept of main function attribute and subsidiary function attribute of preventive maintenance treatment, and defined the function attribute of these maintenance treatment.
In the research of structural effect evaluation of preventive maintenance treatment, in order to utilize FWD deflection basin data to evaluate structural effect, this paper first has analyzed the error of surveying deflection basin, and proved the limitation of x±ks method , and have introduced t distribution tests to examine the error and build its standard application step; and secondly have evaluated the influence to surface deflection basin, and obtained the statistical test results. After the preceding work is finished, because of the self-correlation of repeated surveying deflection data, this paper has set up the repeated measure data analysis model of structural effect evaluation, and has analyzed the 4-years FWD data of fog seal, micro-surfacing and Novachip? test roads, evaluated and compared with the structural effect. And the analysis result found, maintenance treatments appraised have not demonstrated positive functions in protecting the road structure.
In the research of preventive maintenance technology decision theory, this paper has introduced the relevant theories and methods with decision science, set up the standard decision model of preventive maintenance technology, and from seven respects evaluated the attribute of preventive maintenance treatment, these respects mainly conclude: function attribute, application condition, structural thickness, maintain intensity, performance, project factor and user factor; and utilized Bipolar graduation to convert the qualitative attribute to quantitative attribute, and provided standardized ways for various attribute.
In the research of preventive maintenance treatment selection, this paper first has improved the commonly used decision trees, set up the application step of decision tree model for preventive maintenance treatment selection. And secondly has improved weighted method, introduced‘SWING’method which is one of subjective assignment methods and entropy method which is one of objective methods, and proposed the weight revision method. Because of the complexity of treatment selection problem, has introduced the Analytic Hierarchy Theory to the decision of preventive maintenance technology, and utilized the Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP) and Analytic Network Process(ANP) to analyze the multi-attribute preventive maintenance treatment selection program, and verified the theory by real problem.
In the research of road segments division, has analyzed the necessity of segment division and the limitation of existing division method, proposed the step of division, and introduced the cluster analysis theory to segments division, set up the application condition and standardized step of hierarchical cluster, dynamic cluster and optimal partition, and used the real problem to verified these methods. In the research of preventive maintenance timing judgment, has analyzed the limitation of existing timing judgment index, proposed the concept of maintenance requirement timing and optimal maintenance timing, set up the judgment standard of maintenance requirement timing, and introduced the determination method of optimal maintenance timing in NCHRP research, pointed out the deficiency of this method, and put forward relevant improvement suggestions.
Finally, synthesized all the research results herein, proposed design philosophy of short-term and long-term preventive maintenance scheme, set up the application steps and design procedure of two kinds of schemes.
我国目前对预防性养护的理念和内涵仍未有统一的规定,本文将预防性养护技术的核心内涵总结为:第一,预防性养护技术是一种“未雨绸缪”式的技术;第二,预防性养护技术可修复路面功能性损坏,延缓结构性损坏;第三,预防性养护技术是在路面全寿命周期内多阶段、系统性的养护策略。
对预防性养护措施的应用效果进行评价,有助于奠定预防性养护决策的工程技术基础。本文从功能性和结构性两方面对预防性养护措施的应用效果进行了评价。在功能性评价方面,从密水和排水性能、抗车辙能力、抗滑能力和平整度的改善等角度,对雾封层、微表处、超薄磨耗层( UTAC-10和Novachip?)以及薄层热拌沥青混凝土(AC-13C、SMA-13、SMA-10以及OGFC-13)的应用效果进行了评价和对比,总结了这些养护措施的使用性能和适用条件,进而提出了养护措施的主要功能属性和附属功能属性的概念,明确了这些措施的各种功能属性。
在结构性效果评价方面,首先对实测弯沉盆进行了误差分析,证明了常用的x±ks方法处理误差数据的局限性,引入了t分布检验法用于误差检验。其次评价了温度对动态弯沉盆的影响,得出了相关的统计检验结果。随后考虑到跟踪检测数据的自相关性,建立了结构性效果评价的重复测量数据分析模型。最后利用该模型对雾封层、微表处和Novachip?试验段4年的FWD检测数据进行了分析,评价和对比了养护措施的结构性应用效果,分析结果发现,所评价的养护措施对于保护路面结构并未表现出积极作用。
目前对于预防性养护的决策大多是基于工程师的主观经验,本文在预防性养护决策理论的研究方面,引入了决策科学的相关理论,建立了标准的预防性养护决策模型,并从功能属性、适用条件、结构厚度、养护强度、路用性能、工程因素和用户因素七个方面对预防性养护措施的属性进行了度量和评价,建立了属性的无量纲化步骤。在预防性养护决策方法研究方面,首先对决策树法进行了改进,建立了决策树模型的应用步骤,并以广东省预防性养护决策树模型为实例,示范了决策树的建立过程。其次对加权法进行了改进,引入了主观赋值的SWING法和客观赋值的熵值法以及权重的修正方法。
传统的决策方法难以考虑预防性养护决策问题多目标、多属性的特点,具有较大的局限性。本文对决策科学中的相关理论进行了比选,最后根据现阶段我国预防性养护技术的实际特点,选择了层次分析理论作为预防性养护的决策技术,建立了该理论的标准应用步骤。并以效益、成本和风险为准则,以抗滑能力、平整度的改善、修复裂缝、业主成本、用户成本、质量风险、资金风险和工期风险为子准则,分别利用层次分析法和可以考虑反馈作用的网络层次分析法对6种预防性养护措施进行了选择,得到了相关的选择结果,并对结果进行了敏感性分析,证明了层次分析理论用于预防性养护决策问题的优越性。
公路的不同组成路段具有不同的养护需求,因此有必要对公路路段进行划分,以便精确地确定不同路段的养护需求。传统的路段划分方法具有很大的局限性,本文引入了聚类分析理论用于养护路段划分,建立了系统聚类法、动态聚类法和有序聚类法用于路段划分的标准步骤,提出了三种聚类分析方法的适用条件,对每种方法均以实例进行验证。
在养护时机研究方面,首先分析了目前我国关于养护时机判断指标的局限性,提出了养护需求时机和最佳养护时机的概念;其次建立了SFC、IRI、RD和CR用于养护需求时机的判断标准;再次评价了NCHRP研究中关于最佳养护时机的判断方法,指出了该方法的不足,提出了相关的改进意见;随后指出了目前我国在判断最佳预防性养护时机研究方面遇到的主要障碍,并提出了相关研究建议。
最后通过对所有研究成果的总结,提出了短期预防性养护方案和中长期预防性养护方案的设计思想,建立了两种方案的应用步骤和设计方法。
The highway of a country is huge public infrastructure assets, the pavement preventive maintenance is the important technological means of improving assets service level and realizing assets protection. Developed countries such as U.S.A. have already carried on systematic research to the pavement preventive maintenance lasted nearly 20 years, and the study on this technology of China starts relatively late, started around 2003. Although studies on pavement preventive maintenance of developed country such as U.S.A. have already lasted a lot of years, but subjective experience still occupies the main position in practical application. The research purpose herein is to attempt to announce the key intension of pavement preventive maintenance thoroughly, set up the scientific, quantized technological decision system of preventive maintenance, and promote this technology popularization and application in our country. The main content studied includes: key intension of the preventive maintenance, the evaluation of functional and structural effects of preventive maintenance treatment, the decision theory and method of asphalt pavement preventive maintenance, the division method of maintenance segments, the judgment method of maintenance timing, and the design method of preventive maintenance scheme.
The study on this technology of China starts relatively late, the idea and intension of preventive maintenance do not still have unified regulations so far, so the first problem of this text is to analyze and refine the key intension of preventive maintenance technology. The key intensions of preventive maintenance technology of this text were summarized that: First, preventive maintenance technology is a kind of active technology, used in the road surface with good state or only has a small amount of disease; Second, preventive maintenance technology can repair the functional damage of road surface, delay the structural damage of road surface, and it is unable to prevent the decay of the structural intensity of road surface; Third, preventive maintenance technology is many stages, systemic maintenance tactics within the whole life cycle of road surface, it is not merely the application of the single maintenance measure.
In the research of functional effect evaluation of preventive maintenance treatment, this paper have evaluated to fog seal, micro-surfacing, ultra thin friction course (UTAC-10 and Novachip?), thin HMA overlay (AC-13C, SMA-13, SMA-10 and OGFC-13) from respects such as water sealing and water draining, rut resistance ability, skidding resistance ability, and improving roughness, summarized performance and applicability of these preventive maintenance treatment, put forward the concept of main function attribute and subsidiary function attribute of preventive maintenance treatment, and defined the function attribute of these maintenance treatment.
In the research of structural effect evaluation of preventive maintenance treatment, in order to utilize FWD deflection basin data to evaluate structural effect, this paper first has analyzed the error of surveying deflection basin, and proved the limitation of x±ks method , and have introduced t distribution tests to examine the error and build its standard application step; and secondly have evaluated the influence to surface deflection basin, and obtained the statistical test results. After the preceding work is finished, because of the self-correlation of repeated surveying deflection data, this paper has set up the repeated measure data analysis model of structural effect evaluation, and has analyzed the 4-years FWD data of fog seal, micro-surfacing and Novachip? test roads, evaluated and compared with the structural effect. And the analysis result found, maintenance treatments appraised have not demonstrated positive functions in protecting the road structure.
In the research of preventive maintenance technology decision theory, this paper has introduced the relevant theories and methods with decision science, set up the standard decision model of preventive maintenance technology, and from seven respects evaluated the attribute of preventive maintenance treatment, these respects mainly conclude: function attribute, application condition, structural thickness, maintain intensity, performance, project factor and user factor; and utilized Bipolar graduation to convert the qualitative attribute to quantitative attribute, and provided standardized ways for various attribute.
In the research of preventive maintenance treatment selection, this paper first has improved the commonly used decision trees, set up the application step of decision tree model for preventive maintenance treatment selection. And secondly has improved weighted method, introduced‘SWING’method which is one of subjective assignment methods and entropy method which is one of objective methods, and proposed the weight revision method. Because of the complexity of treatment selection problem, has introduced the Analytic Hierarchy Theory to the decision of preventive maintenance technology, and utilized the Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP) and Analytic Network Process(ANP) to analyze the multi-attribute preventive maintenance treatment selection program, and verified the theory by real problem.
In the research of road segments division, has analyzed the necessity of segment division and the limitation of existing division method, proposed the step of division, and introduced the cluster analysis theory to segments division, set up the application condition and standardized step of hierarchical cluster, dynamic cluster and optimal partition, and used the real problem to verified these methods. In the research of preventive maintenance timing judgment, has analyzed the limitation of existing timing judgment index, proposed the concept of maintenance requirement timing and optimal maintenance timing, set up the judgment standard of maintenance requirement timing, and introduced the determination method of optimal maintenance timing in NCHRP research, pointed out the deficiency of this method, and put forward relevant improvement suggestions.
Finally, synthesized all the research results herein, proposed design philosophy of short-term and long-term preventive maintenance scheme, set up the application steps and design procedure of two kinds of schemes.
引文
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27 Ahmed Shalaby, Alan Reggin. Maximum-Likelihood Classification of Pavement Surface Condition Data in Urban Road Networks. the 85th Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting, Washington DC, 2006. Washington DC, TRB, 2006:1~10
28 Richard M. Weed, Robert L. Schmitt, Sam Owusu-Ababio, et al. Ranking Procedure Based on Statistical Hypothesis Testing. the 86th Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting, Washington DC, 2007. Washington DC, TRB, 2007:1~12
29 Tommy L. Beatty, Dennis C. Jackson, Dan A. Dawood, et al. Pavement Preservation Technology in France, South Africa, and Australia. Office of International Programs, 2002:1~43
30 Kathleen T. Hall, Carlos E. Correa, Amy L. Simpson. LTPP Data Analysis Effectiveness of Maintenance and Rehabilitation Options. National Research Council. 2002:183~187
31 Nikornpon Prapaitrakul, Thomas J. Freeman, Charles J. Glover. Investigation of Fog Seal Treatment Effectiveness on Pavement Binders Using Statistical Comparisons (Paired t-Test Analysis) Between Pre- and Post-Treatment. the 87th Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting, Washington DC, 2008. Washington DC, TRB, 2008:1~2
32 Teresa M. Adams, Myungook Kang. Considerations for Establishing a Pavement Preservation Program. the 85th Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting, Washington DC, 2006. Washington DC, TRB, 2006:1~11
33交通部公路科学研究院,上海市公路管理处.公路技术状况评定标准.人民交通出版社,2008:1~35
34上海市公路管理处.公路沥青路面养护技术规范.人民交通出版社,2001:10~30
35中华人民共和国交通部.高速公路养护质量检评方法.人民交通出版社,2002:1~20
36 Alper Guclu, Halil Ceylan. Condition Assessment of Composite Pavement Systems Using Neural-Network-Based Rapid Backcalculation Algorithms. the 86th Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting, Washington DC, 2007.Washington DC, TRB, 2007:1~11
37 N. Bandara, M. Gunaratne. Current and Future Pavement Maintenance Prioritization Based on Rapid Visual Condition Evaluation. Journal of Transportation Engineering. 2001, 127(2):116
38 Liu Yaolin, Martin, Molenaar, et al. Research On Land Evaluation Based on Fuzzy Neural Network. Remote Sensing for Agriculture, Ecosystems, and Hydrology V. 2004, 5232:1
39 Liu Zhibin. Integration of BP neural network and multistage dynamic fuzzy evaluation and its application in HRM performance measurement. 2007 Workshop on Intelligent Information Technology Application, Zhang Jiajie, 2007. Zhang Jiajie, Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc, 2007:1
40 Antti Ruotoistenm?ki. Pavement Condition Rating Based on Factor Analysis of Pavement Condition Measurements. the 84th Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting, Washington DC, 2005. Washington DC, TRB, 2005:1~10
41 Andreas Loizos, Aristides Karlaftis. Investigating Pavement Cracking: Evolutionary Modular Neural Network Approach. the 85th Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting, Washington DC, 2006. Washington DC, TRB, 2006:1~8
42刘伯莹,姚祖康.沥青路面使用性能预测.中国公路学报, 1991, 2:1~3
43孙立军,刘黎萍.沥青路面结构行为方程中材料影响系数的确定方法.公路交通科技, 2006, 23(12):1~4
44 Vincent M. Guillaumot, Pablo L. Durango-Cohen, Samer M. Madanat. Adaptive Optimization of Infrastructure Maintenance and Inspection Decisions under Performance Model Uncertainty. Journal of Infrastructure Systems. 2003, 9(4):134
45 Pablo Luis Durango. Adaptive Optimization Models for Infrastructure Management. PhD thesis, University of California. 2002:1~45
46 Jidong Yang, Manjriker Gunaratne, Jian John Lu, et al. Use of Recurrent Markov Chains for Modeling the Crack Performance of Flexible Pavements. Journal of Transportation Engineering. 2005, 131(11):861
47 Zairen Luo, Huiming Yin. Probabilistic Analysis of Pavement Distress Ratings with Clusterwise Regression Method. the 87th Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting, Washington DC, 2008. Washington DC, TRB, 2008:1~3
48 Gerardo W. Flintsch. Soft Computing Applications in Pavement andInfrastructure Management: State-of-the-Art. the 82nd Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting, Washington DC, 2003. Washington DC, TRB, 2003:8
49 Jidong Yang. Estimating Failure Probabilities of Flexible Pavements under Competing Risks. the 87th Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting, Washington DC, 2008. Washington DC, TRB, 2008:1~2
50 Qiang Li, Kelvin C.P. Wang. Extension Theory Based Pavement Performance Evaluation and Prediction. the 87th Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting, Washington DC, 2008. Washington DC, TRB, 2008:1~2
51 Bekheet Wael, Helali Khaled, Kazmierowski Tom, et al. Integration of preventive maintenance in the pavement preservation: Ontario experience. First National Conference on Pavement Preservation Roadway Pavement Preservation, 2005. Kansas City, TRB, 2005:87-98
52 Hudson Jackson, Art Eisdorfer, Sameh Zaghloul, et al. Integration of Preventive Maintenance Into the NJDOT Pavement Management System. the 83rd Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting, Washington DC, 2003. Washington DC, TRB, 2003:1~8
53 Khaled Helali, Tom Kazmierowski, Sameh Zaghloul. Technical and Institutional Issues Associated with Integrating Preventive Maintenance Into a Pavement Management System. the 83rd Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting, Washington DC, 2003. Washington DC, TRB, 2003:1~8
54 Michael S. Mamlouk, John P. Zaniewsk. Optimizing Pavement Preservation: an Urgent Demand for Every Highway Agency. International Journal of Pavement Engineering. 2001, 2(2):135~148
55 The Path Forward: Funding and Financing our Surface Transportation System.
56 Mortan, D. A., Epps, J. A. and Glbson, S. D., Pavment Treatment Effectiveness, 1995 SPS-3 and SPS-4 Site Evaluations, National Report, FHWA-RD-96-208, 1997.
57 Mortan, D. A., Glbson, S. D. and Epps, J. A., Maintenance Flexible Pavements-the Long-Term Pavement Performance Experiment SPS-3 5-Year Data Analysis, FHWA-RD-97-102, 1998.
58 Eltahan, A. A., Daleiden, J. F., and Simpson, A.L.. Effectiveness of Maintenance Treatments of Flexible Pavements. Transportation Research Record 1680, 1999.
59 Larry Galehouse, Helen King and David R. Leach. Preventive MaintenanceTreatment Performance at 14 years. the 85th Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting, Washington DC, 2005. Washington DC, TRB, 2005:1~5
60 John Zaniewski and Michael Mamlouk. Pavement Preventive Maintenance: the Key to Quality Highways. the 79th Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting, Washington DC, 1999. Washington DC, TRB, 1999:1~5
61 Samuel Labi, Mohammad Issa Mahmodi, and Chuanxin Fang. Cost-Effectiveness of Microsurfacing and Thin HMA Overlays– a Comparative Anlysis. the 87th Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting, Washington DC, 2007. Washington DC, TRB, 2007:1~5
62左明文.沥青路面弯沉测定值温度修正的研究.华东公路, 1996,4:1~5
63查旭东.沥青路面反算模量的温度修正.公路, 2002, 6:1~3
64肖明耀.怎么样剔除含有粗差的观测值.计量工作, 1973, 2:10~12
65王文周.未知σt检验法剔除异常值最好.四川工业学院学报, 2000,19(3): 84-86
66余松林,陈立功,王松.临床纵向重复测定资料的统计分析方法.临床纵向重复测定资料的统计分析方法.中国临床药理学与治疗学, 1997, 2:1~5
67董英,赵耐青.重复测量资料方差分析中主效应意义的探讨.复旦学报, 2005, 32(6):1~5
68杨保安,张科静.多目标决策分析理论、方法与应用研究.东华大学出版社, 2008:8~68
69 Andrew Russ, Gayle F. Mitchell, Wallace Richardson. Decision Tree for Pretreatments for Winter Maintenance. the 88th Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting, Washington DC, 2008. Washington DC, TRB, 2008:1~5
70 Thomas L. Saaty. Decision Making-the Analytic Hierarchy and Network Processes (AHP/ANP). Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering. 2004, 13(1):1~35
71 Thomas L. Saaty. Fundamentals of the Analytic Network Process-Dependence and Feedback in Decision-Making with a Single Network. Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering. 2004, 13(2):129~157
72 Thomas L. Saaty. Fundamentals of the Analystic Network Process-Multiple Networks with Benefits, Costs, Opportunities and Risks. Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering. 2004, 13(3):348~379
73 Thomas L. Saaty. Automatic Decision-Making: Neural Firing and Response. Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering. 2004, 13(4):385~404
74 Thomas L. Saaty. Rank from Comparisons and from Ratings in the Analytic Hierarchy/Network Processes. European Journal of Operational Research. 2006, 168:557~570
75 Thomas L. Saaty. Rank from the unknown in decision making What to Do about it. European Journal of Operational Research. 2006, 174:349~359
76 Thomas L. Saaty. Dispersion of Group Judgments. Mathematical and Computer Modelling. 2007, 46:918~925
77 Thomas L. Saaty. Multi-decisions Decision-making: in Addition to Wheeling and Dealing, our National Political Bodies Need a Formal Approach for Prioritization. Mathematical and Computer Modelling. 2007, 46:1001~1016
78 Thomas L. Saaty, Liem T. Tran. on the Invalidity of Fuzzifying Numerical Judgments in the Analytic Hierarchy Process. Mathematical and Computer Modelling. 2007, 46:962~975
79 Thomas L. Saaty, Kirti Peniwati, Jen S. Shang. The analytic hierarchy process and human resource allocation: Half the story. 2007, 46:1041~1053
80 Thomas L. Saaty. Time Dependent Decision-making; Dynamic Priorities in the AHP/ANP: Generalizing from Points to Functions and from Real to Complex Variables. Mathematical and Computer Modelling. 2007, 46:860~891
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2 Federal Highway Administration. Insights to Pavement Preservation. 2000:1~6
3 U.S Department of Transportation. 2002 Status of the Nation’s Highways, Bridges, and Transit: Conditions & Performance. 2002:1
4 David Hein, Jean-Martin Croteau. The Impact of Preventive Maintenance Programs on the Condition of roadway networks. the Coordinating Pavement and Maintenance Management with Transportation Asset Management Session of the 2004 Annual Conference of the Transportation Association of Canada Québec City, 2004
5 National Surface Transportation Infrastructure Financing Commission. The Path Forward: Funding and Financing Our Surface Transportation System. 2008
6 U.S Department of Transportation. Pavement Preservation: A Road Map for the Future. 1998:1~4
7徐剑.沥青路面微表处养护技术的研究.东南大学博士论文. 2002:1~10
8王新增. Cape封层技术在国外的发展和应用.国外公路. 2000, 20(5):42
9沙庆林.沥青和沥青混凝土现状.交通运输工程学报. 2001, 1(3):3
10沙庆林.沥青和沥青混凝土现状(上).国外公路. 1999, 19(2):1
11 David Hein, Jean-Martin Croteau. The Impact of Preventive Maintenance Programs on the Condition of Roadway Networks. Annual Conference of the Transportation Association of Canada. Québec, 2004:3
12 Larry Galehouse, Helen King, David R. Leach, et al. Preventive Maintenance Treatment Performance at 14 Years. the 84th Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting, Washington DC, 2005. Washington DC, TRB, 2005:1~2
13 Gilbert Y. Baladi, Tunwin Svasdisant, Thomas Van, et al. Cost-Effective Preventive Maintenance Case Studies. the 81st Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting, Washington DC, 2002. Washington DC, TRB, 2002:1~2
14 Larry Orcutt. Pavement Preventive Maintenance Guidelines. Foundation for Pavement Preservation, 2001:2
15 S. Labi, K. Sinha. The Effectiveness of Maintenance and Its Impact on Capital Expenditures. Indiana Department of Transportation, 2003:135~209
16 D. G. Peshkin, T. E. Hoerner, K. A. Zimmerman. Optimal Timing of Pavement Preventive Maintenance Treatment Application. Transportation Research Board of The National Academies, 2004:18~60
17 Stantec Consulting Inc. Development and Implementation of Arizona Department of Transportation(ADOT) Pavement Management System(PMS). Arizona Department of Transportation, 2006:11~20
18 Cuelho Eli, Mokwa Robert, Akin Michelle. Preventive Maintenance Treatment of Flexible Pavements: A Synthesis of Highway. The State of Montana Department of Transportation, 2006:39~48
19 David R. Anderson, Dennis J. Sweeney and Thomas A. Williams. An Introduction to Management Science: Quantitative Approaches to Decision Making. China Machine Press, 2003:464~618
20 Changjun Wei, Susan Tighe. Development of Preventive Maintenance Decision Trees Based on Cost Effectiveness - an Ontario Case Study. the 83rd Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting, Washington DC, 2004. Washington DC, TRB, 2004:1~11
21 James Tsai, Yiching Wu, Eric Pitts. Implementing Enhanced Georgia Department of Transportation Pavement Preservation Program. the 85th Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting, Washington DC, 2006. Washington DC, TRB, 2006:1~11
22 SHAKIR SHATNAWI, ROB MARSH, R. GARY HICKS, et al. Pavement Preservation Strategy Selection in California. the 11th AASHTO–TRB Maintenance Management Conference, Charleston South Carolina, 2006. Charleston South Carolina, TRB, 2006:29~35
23 R. Gary Hicks, Stephen B. Seeds, David G. Peshkin. Selecting a Preventive Maintenance Treatment for Flexible Pavements. Foundation for Pavement Preservation, 2000:5~36
24 Prechaverakul, S, F. C. Handipriono. Using A Knowledge-Based Expert System and Fuzzy Logic for Minor Rehabilitation Projects in Ohio. the 74th Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting, Washington DC, 1995. Washington DC, TRB, 1995:1
25 Ashraf M. Abdelrahim, K. P. George. Artificial Neural Network for Enhancing Selection of Pavement Maintenance Strategy. the 79th Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting, Washington DC, 2000. Washington DC, TRB, 2000:1~5
26 Rabi G. Mishalanil, Haris N. Koutsopoulos. Uniform Infrastructure Fields: Defelition and Identification. Journal of Infrastructure Systems. 1995, 1(1):44~54
27 Ahmed Shalaby, Alan Reggin. Maximum-Likelihood Classification of Pavement Surface Condition Data in Urban Road Networks. the 85th Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting, Washington DC, 2006. Washington DC, TRB, 2006:1~10
28 Richard M. Weed, Robert L. Schmitt, Sam Owusu-Ababio, et al. Ranking Procedure Based on Statistical Hypothesis Testing. the 86th Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting, Washington DC, 2007. Washington DC, TRB, 2007:1~12
29 Tommy L. Beatty, Dennis C. Jackson, Dan A. Dawood, et al. Pavement Preservation Technology in France, South Africa, and Australia. Office of International Programs, 2002:1~43
30 Kathleen T. Hall, Carlos E. Correa, Amy L. Simpson. LTPP Data Analysis Effectiveness of Maintenance and Rehabilitation Options. National Research Council. 2002:183~187
31 Nikornpon Prapaitrakul, Thomas J. Freeman, Charles J. Glover. Investigation of Fog Seal Treatment Effectiveness on Pavement Binders Using Statistical Comparisons (Paired t-Test Analysis) Between Pre- and Post-Treatment. the 87th Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting, Washington DC, 2008. Washington DC, TRB, 2008:1~2
32 Teresa M. Adams, Myungook Kang. Considerations for Establishing a Pavement Preservation Program. the 85th Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting, Washington DC, 2006. Washington DC, TRB, 2006:1~11
33交通部公路科学研究院,上海市公路管理处.公路技术状况评定标准.人民交通出版社,2008:1~35
34上海市公路管理处.公路沥青路面养护技术规范.人民交通出版社,2001:10~30
35中华人民共和国交通部.高速公路养护质量检评方法.人民交通出版社,2002:1~20
36 Alper Guclu, Halil Ceylan. Condition Assessment of Composite Pavement Systems Using Neural-Network-Based Rapid Backcalculation Algorithms. the 86th Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting, Washington DC, 2007.Washington DC, TRB, 2007:1~11
37 N. Bandara, M. Gunaratne. Current and Future Pavement Maintenance Prioritization Based on Rapid Visual Condition Evaluation. Journal of Transportation Engineering. 2001, 127(2):116
38 Liu Yaolin, Martin, Molenaar, et al. Research On Land Evaluation Based on Fuzzy Neural Network. Remote Sensing for Agriculture, Ecosystems, and Hydrology V. 2004, 5232:1
39 Liu Zhibin. Integration of BP neural network and multistage dynamic fuzzy evaluation and its application in HRM performance measurement. 2007 Workshop on Intelligent Information Technology Application, Zhang Jiajie, 2007. Zhang Jiajie, Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc, 2007:1
40 Antti Ruotoistenm?ki. Pavement Condition Rating Based on Factor Analysis of Pavement Condition Measurements. the 84th Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting, Washington DC, 2005. Washington DC, TRB, 2005:1~10
41 Andreas Loizos, Aristides Karlaftis. Investigating Pavement Cracking: Evolutionary Modular Neural Network Approach. the 85th Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting, Washington DC, 2006. Washington DC, TRB, 2006:1~8
42刘伯莹,姚祖康.沥青路面使用性能预测.中国公路学报, 1991, 2:1~3
43孙立军,刘黎萍.沥青路面结构行为方程中材料影响系数的确定方法.公路交通科技, 2006, 23(12):1~4
44 Vincent M. Guillaumot, Pablo L. Durango-Cohen, Samer M. Madanat. Adaptive Optimization of Infrastructure Maintenance and Inspection Decisions under Performance Model Uncertainty. Journal of Infrastructure Systems. 2003, 9(4):134
45 Pablo Luis Durango. Adaptive Optimization Models for Infrastructure Management. PhD thesis, University of California. 2002:1~45
46 Jidong Yang, Manjriker Gunaratne, Jian John Lu, et al. Use of Recurrent Markov Chains for Modeling the Crack Performance of Flexible Pavements. Journal of Transportation Engineering. 2005, 131(11):861
47 Zairen Luo, Huiming Yin. Probabilistic Analysis of Pavement Distress Ratings with Clusterwise Regression Method. the 87th Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting, Washington DC, 2008. Washington DC, TRB, 2008:1~3
48 Gerardo W. Flintsch. Soft Computing Applications in Pavement andInfrastructure Management: State-of-the-Art. the 82nd Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting, Washington DC, 2003. Washington DC, TRB, 2003:8
49 Jidong Yang. Estimating Failure Probabilities of Flexible Pavements under Competing Risks. the 87th Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting, Washington DC, 2008. Washington DC, TRB, 2008:1~2
50 Qiang Li, Kelvin C.P. Wang. Extension Theory Based Pavement Performance Evaluation and Prediction. the 87th Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting, Washington DC, 2008. Washington DC, TRB, 2008:1~2
51 Bekheet Wael, Helali Khaled, Kazmierowski Tom, et al. Integration of preventive maintenance in the pavement preservation: Ontario experience. First National Conference on Pavement Preservation Roadway Pavement Preservation, 2005. Kansas City, TRB, 2005:87-98
52 Hudson Jackson, Art Eisdorfer, Sameh Zaghloul, et al. Integration of Preventive Maintenance Into the NJDOT Pavement Management System. the 83rd Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting, Washington DC, 2003. Washington DC, TRB, 2003:1~8
53 Khaled Helali, Tom Kazmierowski, Sameh Zaghloul. Technical and Institutional Issues Associated with Integrating Preventive Maintenance Into a Pavement Management System. the 83rd Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting, Washington DC, 2003. Washington DC, TRB, 2003:1~8
54 Michael S. Mamlouk, John P. Zaniewsk. Optimizing Pavement Preservation: an Urgent Demand for Every Highway Agency. International Journal of Pavement Engineering. 2001, 2(2):135~148
55 The Path Forward: Funding and Financing our Surface Transportation System.
56 Mortan, D. A., Epps, J. A. and Glbson, S. D., Pavment Treatment Effectiveness, 1995 SPS-3 and SPS-4 Site Evaluations, National Report, FHWA-RD-96-208, 1997.
57 Mortan, D. A., Glbson, S. D. and Epps, J. A., Maintenance Flexible Pavements-the Long-Term Pavement Performance Experiment SPS-3 5-Year Data Analysis, FHWA-RD-97-102, 1998.
58 Eltahan, A. A., Daleiden, J. F., and Simpson, A.L.. Effectiveness of Maintenance Treatments of Flexible Pavements. Transportation Research Record 1680, 1999.
59 Larry Galehouse, Helen King and David R. Leach. Preventive MaintenanceTreatment Performance at 14 years. the 85th Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting, Washington DC, 2005. Washington DC, TRB, 2005:1~5
60 John Zaniewski and Michael Mamlouk. Pavement Preventive Maintenance: the Key to Quality Highways. the 79th Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting, Washington DC, 1999. Washington DC, TRB, 1999:1~5
61 Samuel Labi, Mohammad Issa Mahmodi, and Chuanxin Fang. Cost-Effectiveness of Microsurfacing and Thin HMA Overlays– a Comparative Anlysis. the 87th Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting, Washington DC, 2007. Washington DC, TRB, 2007:1~5
62左明文.沥青路面弯沉测定值温度修正的研究.华东公路, 1996,4:1~5
63查旭东.沥青路面反算模量的温度修正.公路, 2002, 6:1~3
64肖明耀.怎么样剔除含有粗差的观测值.计量工作, 1973, 2:10~12
65王文周.未知σt检验法剔除异常值最好.四川工业学院学报, 2000,19(3): 84-86
66余松林,陈立功,王松.临床纵向重复测定资料的统计分析方法.临床纵向重复测定资料的统计分析方法.中国临床药理学与治疗学, 1997, 2:1~5
67董英,赵耐青.重复测量资料方差分析中主效应意义的探讨.复旦学报, 2005, 32(6):1~5
68杨保安,张科静.多目标决策分析理论、方法与应用研究.东华大学出版社, 2008:8~68
69 Andrew Russ, Gayle F. Mitchell, Wallace Richardson. Decision Tree for Pretreatments for Winter Maintenance. the 88th Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting, Washington DC, 2008. Washington DC, TRB, 2008:1~5
70 Thomas L. Saaty. Decision Making-the Analytic Hierarchy and Network Processes (AHP/ANP). Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering. 2004, 13(1):1~35
71 Thomas L. Saaty. Fundamentals of the Analytic Network Process-Dependence and Feedback in Decision-Making with a Single Network. Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering. 2004, 13(2):129~157
72 Thomas L. Saaty. Fundamentals of the Analystic Network Process-Multiple Networks with Benefits, Costs, Opportunities and Risks. Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering. 2004, 13(3):348~379
73 Thomas L. Saaty. Automatic Decision-Making: Neural Firing and Response. Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering. 2004, 13(4):385~404
74 Thomas L. Saaty. Rank from Comparisons and from Ratings in the Analytic Hierarchy/Network Processes. European Journal of Operational Research. 2006, 168:557~570
75 Thomas L. Saaty. Rank from the unknown in decision making What to Do about it. European Journal of Operational Research. 2006, 174:349~359
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