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人力资本对区域经济增长的作用及收敛性研究
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摘要
我国自改革开放以来,取得了年均GDP超过8%的高增长率,被世界称为“中国奇迹”。然而,伴随着我国经济的高增长,一些制约社会经济发展的深层次矛盾也正在逐步浮出水面,区域发展非均衡问题就是其中之一。对于不同区域间经济增长呈现的差异,新古典经济增长理论和新经济增长理论均给出各自的解释。新古典经济增长理论认为,随着时间的推移,在控制了地区人力资本投资,技术进步等条件时,地区间经济增长差异会随着落后地区更快的劳均资本增长率而逐步缩小,各地区人均产出水平最终将收敛于自身的稳态。而新增长理论则认为,正是由于知识积累具有边际生产率递增的特性,发达地区必然会凭借较高的人力资本存量和技术进步水平保持较快的经济增长率,也就是说,地区间的经济差异不一定能够随着时间的推移而消失。
     可以说,经济增长收敛假说中蕴藏着对区域经济增长差异缩小的可能路径。而人力资本差异如果是区域经济增长差异的主要形成原因,那么考察我国人力资本和经济增长的区域差距现状,探寻人力资本对我国区域经济增长的作用机制差异,测度区域经济增长中人力资本的贡献大小,将对各地区依靠人力资本路径缩小区域经济差距提供理论借鉴和决策依据,这就是本研究的写作出发点。
     本文的主要研究内容分为七个部分,第一章主要阐述了论文的研究背景和意义、研究目的和主要内容、研究思路与方法、研究创新之处;第二章从人力资本对区域经济增长作用的相关理论和文献进行了梳理,进而提炼归纳了人力资本对区域经济增长的作用机制;第三章考察并分析了人力资本与我国区域经济增长的现状。运用成本法、教育指标法和综合指数法测算我国区域及省际人力资本存量,并分析人力资本分布差异的区域特征。根据改革开放以来我国区域经济增长差距的现实情况,考察我国人力资本与区域经济增长的互动关系;第四章从卢卡斯的人力资本模型出发,将其拆分为有效劳动模型和人力资本外部性模型。在有效劳动模型中,将人力资本扩展至教育和健康两个方面,在人力资本外部性模型中,测算区域经济增长中人力资本的产出弹性以及各生产要素对经济增长的贡献率。将教育和健康人力资本作为控制变量,考察人力资本投资政策是否有助于改变区域经济增长的收敛路径。同时,本章尝试运用中国居民营养健康调查数据(CHNS)从微观视角验证人力资本外部性的存在。第五章从人力资本通过技术进步影响全要素生产率增长,进而促进经济增长这一间接作用机制出发,探讨人力资本水平、人力资本结构、人力资本不平等对全要素生产率增长的作用。运用绝对收敛和条件收敛方法,探讨改革开放以来我国全要素生产率增长的收敛性特征。第六章摒弃传统经济学中经济体间相互独立的假定条件,在第四章和第五章经典数量模型的基础上加入空间因素,实证检验了人力资本对我国区域经济增长和全要素生产率增长的空间溢出效应。第七章是本文的主要结论和研究展望。本研究有以下主要发现:
     第一,改革开放以来,随着九年义务教育工作的开展和普及,我国区域间平均人力资本水平的差距在逐步缩小,但由于地区内部较高层次劳动者人力资本差距的持续扩大,使得我国人力资本分布的不平等主要来源于区域内部。第二,人力资本对我国经济增长的作用机制存在明显的区域差异。东部地区主要通过人力资本促进全要素生产率增长这一间接方式,作用于经济增长;对于中部地区,主要依靠蕴含人力资本(包括教育和健康)的有效劳动投入,促进经济增长;西部地区人力资本存量水平虽然比较低,但人力外部性对经济增长的贡献仅次于东部地区,说明西部地区平均人力资本水平的提高能够形成知识溢出效应,促进要素边际生产率的提高,从而拉动经济增长。第三,运用中国居民营养与健康调查微观数据(CHNS),结果发现城市人力资本平均水平的提升不仅能够提高低人力资本者的工资水平,还能够缓解高人力资本者由于供求规律导致的工资水平降低趋势。分区域看,沿海地区人力资本外部性效应要强于内陆地区,即我国及区域城市人力资本外部性的确存在。第四,人力资本对我国及区域全要素生产率增长具有积极的促进作用,不同类型的人力资本对全要素生产率的增长效应存在差异,人力资本不平等不利于全要素生产率的增长。第五,人力资本对区域经济增长收敛和全要素生产率增长收敛的影响均表现出鲜明的门槛特征,如果无法跨越人力资本发展的门槛值,区域经济增长将收敛于各自的稳态,落后地区将会落入“低收入陷阱”。第六,考虑到地理空间上的相互作用,人力资本更倾向于通过促进全要素生产率增长这样的间接方式作用于经济增长。
Since the reform and opening-up, China achieved an annual average high growth rate ofover8%, which is known as the "Chinese miracle". However, accompanied by high economicgrowth in our country, some deep-seated contradictions which constrain socio-economicdevelopment is being gradually surfaced, one of which is non-balanced regional development.The neoclassical theory of economic growth and new economic growth theory presents theirown interpretation of the differences between regions. The neoclassical theory of economicgrowth suggested, controling the condition of human capital investment and technologicalprogress, the regional differential in economic growth will be reduced as the backward areasowning faster capital growth rate, each level of output per capita in the region will eventuallyconverge to its own steady state. The new growth theory suggested that due to theaccumulation of knowledge has increasing marginal productivity,the developed areas boundby higher human capital stockand technological progres level will maintain a rapid economicgrowth rate.That is, the regional economic differences may not be able to disappear with thepassage of time.
     It can be said that economic growth convergence hypothesis contains the possible path tonarrow the regional differences. If differences in human capital is the main causes of thegrowth of regional economic differences, examining the regional disparities in the status quoof China 's human capital and economic growth, exploring the differential mechanism of thehuman capital on regional economic growth, measuring the contribution of human capital,will provide a theoretical reference and decision basis to reduce regional disparities. This isthe purpose of this study.
     The main contents of this paper is divided into seven parts, The first chapter elaboratedthe research background and significance, research objectives and main content and researchideas and methods, including research innovations. The second Chapter combed the theoryand literature of the role of human capital on regional economic growth, refined themechanism of human capital on regional economic growth. The third chapter of the studyanalyzed the status of human capital and regional economic growth in China. Then took useof the cost method, the education indicators method,and a a comprehensive index method toestimate the regional and inter-provincial stock of human capital, take analysis the regionalcharacteristics of the distribution of human capital differences. Examined the interactionbetween human capital and regional economic growth. The fourth chapter divided Lucashuman capital model into Effective model and Human capital externalities model. In Effectivemodel, extended human capital to education and health, estimated regional economic growthand its rate. Tried to verify the existence of human capital externalities in the microperspective using China Health Nutrition Survey data. The fifth chapter started from theindirect mechanism that "human capital affect total factor productivity through technologicalprogress,thus contributing to the economic growth",explored the role of human capital level,human capital structure, human capital inequality on TFP; used the test method of economic growth convergence to investigate whether the investment in human capital policies help tochange the path of convergence of regional growth. The sixth chapter abandoned the theassumption of traditional economies independent, added spatial factors on the basis of theoriginal model, which examined the spatial spillover effect of human capital to regionaleconomic and TFP. The seventh chapter contains main conclusions and research prospects,The major findings of this study include:
     Firstly, since the reform and opening-up, with the development and popularization of thenine-year compulsory education work, the regional gap of average level of human capital isgradually reduced. However, the higher level gap of workers within the regions continued towiden, which is the mainly unequal source of China’s human capital distribution. Secondly,there are significant regional differences in the mechanism of the human capital on regionaleconomic growth. Eastern region mainly through the indirect way of human capital topromote the total factor productivity growth;central region rely mainly on effective laborinput implies human capital (including education and health) to economic growth, eventhough there was low human capital stock in western region, its contribution of humanexternalities to economic growth is next to eastern region. Thirdly, using China Health andNutrition Survey(CHNS),the results showed that enhancing the average level of urban humancapital not only can increase the wage level of the low human capital, but easing the wagelevel of the high human capital decreased due to the law of supply and demand. In terms ofregions, coastal areas of human capital externalities effect is stronger than the inland areas.That is, in our country and region, human capital externalities in city does exist. Fourthly,human capital plays a positive role in promoting the regional TFP, besides that, the effect ofhuman capital heterogeneity on the provincial productivity growth in China. Human capitalinequality is not conducive to the regional productivity growth. Fifthly, there is distinctivecharacteristics of the threshold on the convergence of human capital to economic growth andTFP growth. If the province can not cross the threshold of human capital development,regional economic growth will converge to the respective steady state, and backward areaswill fall into the “low-income trap”. Finally, taking into account the interaction betweengeospatial, human capital is more likely to act on economic growth by promoting this indirectway of TFP growth.
引文
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