综合利用水库调度风险分析理论与方法研究
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摘要
全球气候变化给人类生存及生态环境带来了严重影响,为应对极端气候导致的洪涝旱灾频发,中共中央、国务院在“十二五”规划纲要中强调,要积极应对全球气候变化、加强生态保护和防灾减灾体系建设、加大环境保护力度和资源节约与管理。因此,如何在不利气候条件下,完善防灾减灾和水资源高效利用的工程与非工程措施,实现经济、社会、资源与环境的协调发展已成为不可回避的重大现实问题。
大型流域上的控制性水库工程,作为社会经济、生态环境的重要组成部分,其调度风险管理工作的意义尤为值得重视。随着我国大规模水库群的逐渐形成,这也将成为流域综合管理必然的发展趋势。本文针对国民经济及社会发展的需要,选取长江流域上大型控制性水库工程作为研究对象,按照风险分析的主体路线,分别从风险因子识别与量化、风险估计与评价、多目标决策、风险与效益协调优化、协调机制建设等方面进行了系统和深入的研究,建立了综合利用水库调度风险分析的基本理论与方法体系。其成果有助于大型流域防灾减灾的决策,有利于提高水资源利用整体效益,促进工程技术、社会经济、生态环境的良性循环与可持续发展。全文取得的主要成果如下：
(1)风险因子量化方法及评价指标体系。针对水库调度面临的水文、水力、工程状态、人为管理等诸多不确定性因素,分析可能对水库调度效益产生影响的主要风险因素；对可能涉及到的随机性、模糊性因子,径流预报误差,以及径流与洪水的随机模拟,提出了相应的处理方法,初步形成了单个风险因子量化方法体系；基于Copula函数能由各变量的边缘分布得到多个变量的联合分布的特点,提出了多风险因子组合量化方法。进一步,在风险因子识别及量化方法的研究基础上建立了概化的风险评价指标体系,为水库调度风险分析的后续工作开展提供了重要基础。
(2)基于改进蒙特卡洛方法的风险估计。以蒙特卡洛和最大熵方法为基础,充分利用蒙特卡洛方法能避开研究对象的复杂内部特性描述以及这些特性对系统行为或效益的解析分析上的困难的特点,结合最大熵方法可利用少量的已知信息分析确定变量最佳分布形式的优点,提出了水库调度风险估计的改进蒙特卡洛方法,对提出方法的收敛性进行了数学证明,并解释了所提出的方法能够提高收敛速度的原因,从而避免了蒙特卡洛方法在计算小概率事件时需要大量模拟计算的缺点,实现了对复杂工程体系下众多风险评价指标的快速计算。
(3)水库调度多最小风险问题描述的随机多目标决策模型。针对综合利用水库调度涉及多种不确定性和多个目标,以入库径流的随机性为重点,建立了随机多目标调度决策模型,并将其转化为以拟定目标值为水平值的多最小风险问题,提出了基于频率分级考虑的入库径流模拟和逐步优化算法的寻求随机多目标决策最佳妥协解的序列解法,以方便决策者根据水库调度的不同要求及目标对调度运行过程实施决策优化,为水库调度随机多目标决策提供了一条新的思路。
(4)基于概率最优化方法的风险与效益协调优化模型。以随机多目标调度决策及改进的蒙特卡洛方法为基础,针对防洪、发电、供水、航运等调度要求及目标,建立了综合利用水库多目标调度风险分析模型,深入研究了多目标调度风险评价指标体系的权重确定方法及综合风险计算方法,在此基础上提出了概率最优化方法和风险与效益协调优化模型,在三峡水库综合利用调度风险分析的实际工程应用中验证了方法和模型的可行性和有效性。
(5)溪洛渡与三峡水库联合防洪调度风险分析。首先建立了梯级水库群联合防洪调度风险评价指标体系,并以洪水预报中偶然误差的正态量化为基础,提出了在容许标准差范围内对入库洪水过程进行随机模拟的方法,进一步基于对洪水频率进行分级考虑的思想构建了梯级水库群联合防洪调度风险分析模型和基于改进蒙特卡洛方法的求解方法。通过在溪洛渡和三峡水库的联合防洪调度实际项目中的应用,表明该方法与模型合理可行,具有比较宽的适用性,在库群遭遇一定频率典型洪水过程时,不仅能给出预报误差与联合调度风险的关系,而且能根据下游分蓄洪区本身承受能力和决策者偏好估计出洪水预报误差标准差的上下临界值,为调度决策提供了重要依据。
(6)溪洛渡与三峡水库联合兴利调度风险分析。考虑水库群联合兴利调度涉及到的发电、航运、供水和生态四个方面,分别建立其价值函数,提出了联合兴利调度风险评价指标体系。在此基础上,构建了联合兴利调度综合风险计算模型。并以溪洛渡和三峡水库联合兴利调度为实际应用,进行了风险评价分析,分别选取了不同偏好的调度方案进行评价分析,得出了各种方案的风险评价结果,为各种偏好的联合调度决策提供了参考。
(7)长江上游控制性水库群防洪与兴利协调机制。在对长江流域洪水特征及其干支流防洪库容进行分析的基础上,对于以三峡为中心的长江上游干支流的15座水库,基于水文与库容补偿原理和上游的洪水特性分析,针对大洪水情况提出了长江中下游的防洪调度补偿机制,包括补偿调度的原则、模型及方式,以期在动用最小防洪库容条件下,减少下游洪灾损失和增加水库群联合防洪效益；针对中小型洪水情况建立了防洪与兴利目标的协调机制,包括防洪与后期蓄水的协调及防洪与发电的协调方式,以期增加洪水资源化程度和提高兴利效益。并通过与现有应对洪水的调度方案对比分析,说明了本文思想的可行之处,为长江上游干支流水库群汛期联合调度提供了重要的理论支撑。
Climate change around the world has detrimental impact on the survival of human beings and ecological environment. In order to deal with the floods that occur frequently owning to extreme weather, the programs of CPC Central Committee and State Council in the12th Five-Year Plan emphasize on facing the climate change around world actively, reinforcing the protection of ecology and the establishment of system of disaster prevention and mitigation and enhancing efforts on environmental protection and on resource conservation and management. Thus, it is a significantly practical and unavoidable problem that how to improve the engineering and non-engineering measures on flood control and the efficient utilization of water resource under adverse weather conditions and then to realize the coordinative development of economy, society, resources and environment.
The controlling projects of reservoirs on large river basins is an important part of the socio-economic, ecological environment, thus, the significance of its operation management risk is particularly noteworthy. With the gradual formation of large-scale reservoir group, integrated management in watershed has become the inevitable trend of development. This paper, for need of the development of national economy and society, chooses the controlling projects of reservoirs on Yangtze River basin as the object of study. According to main route of risk analysis, it makes a systemic and in-depth study, separately from the identification and quantization of risk factors, risk estimate and evaluation, multi-objective decision, coordination optimization between risk and benefit, construction of coordination mechanism and so on, to establish the basic theory and systemic methods of risk analysis of the multi-purpose reservoir operation. The achievements facilitate decision-making on disaster prevention and mitigation of the large river basin, help to improve the overall efficiency of water resources utilization and promote the benign cycle and sustainable development of engineering technology, social economy, and the ecological environment. The main achievements made in the full paper are as follows:
(1) The quantitative method and evaluation index system of risk factors. For the numerous uncertain factors confronted with reservoir operation such as hydraulic and hydrological factors, engineering state, human management and so on, we analyze the main risk factors that possibly affect the reservoir operation; For the ones probably referred such as randomness, fuzzy factor, runoff forecast error, and runoff and the flood of random simulation, we put forward the corresponding processing methods and form a quantitative method system for single risk factor; Based on the specialty of Copula function that joint distribution of several variables can be obtained through the marginal distribution of each variable, we put forward the combining quantitative method of multiple risk factors. Furthermore, based on the study on the method of identification and quantization of risk factors, we propose the generalized risk evaluation index system, providing an important basis for subsequent job on the risk analysis of reservoir operation.
(2) Risk estimate based on improved monte carlo method. Based on the method of monte carlo and maximum entropy, making full use of specialty of the monte carlo method that it can avoid describing the complex internal characteristics of the study object and the difficulties on analytical analysis of the system behavior or benefit owing to those characteristics, combining with the maximum entropy method which can use a small amount of known information to analyze and then determine the best distribution form of the variables, we put forward the improved monte carlo method on the risk calculation of reservoir operation, offer the mathematical proof on convergence of the proposed method, explain why the proposed method can improve the convergence rate, thus avoiding the shortcoming of the monte carlo method that calculation of small probability events needs a great quantity of simulation calculation, and realize the fast calculation of multiple risk indicators for complex engineering system.
(3) Random multi-objective decision-making model for describing the multiple minimum risk problem of reservoir operation. For various uncertainty and multiple goals of multi-purpose reservoir operation, with the randomness of the incoming runoff as the key point, we set up random multi-objective decision-making model for reservoir operation. And then transforming it to the multiple minimum risk problem with the target value drawn up as the level value, we propose the runoff simulation based on considering frequency diversity and the sequence solution of seeking best compromise solution to random multi-objective decision by progressive optimization algorithm. Then, it is convenient for decision makers to make an optimal decision according to the different requirements and goals of reservoir operation,and it offers a new idea to random multi-objective decision-making of the reservoir operation.
(4) Coordination optimization model between risk and benefit based on the probability optimization method. Based on the random multi-objective decision-making of reservoir operation and improved monte carlo method, for the demand of flood control, power generation, water supply, shipping and such kind of operation requirements and object, we establish the multi-objective operation risk analysis model of multi-purpose reservoir, and make a in-depth study on the method of determining weight to the risk evaluation index system of multi-objective operation and the calculation method of composite risk. Then, based on this, we propose probability optimization method, and verify the feasibility and good effectiveness of the method and model in the practical project by multi-purpose operation risk analysis of the Three Gorges Reservoir.
(5) Joint flood control operation risk analysis of Xiluodu Reservoir and the Three Gorges Reservoir. First, we establish the risk evaluation index system of the joint flood control operation of the cascade reservoirs. Secondly, based on normal quantization of accidental error in flood forecasting, we put forward the random simulation method for incoming flood process with the standard deviation in the allowable range. Furthermore, based on the idea considering flood frequency diversity, we set up the risk analysis model of the joint flood control operation of the cascade reservoirs and the solving method based on the improved monte carlo method. Through the application in the project joint flood control operation of Xiluodu Reservoir and the Three Gorges Reservoir, this method and model prove reasonable,feasible and of quite wide applicability. Under the condition that when cascade reservoirs suffer the typical flood of certain frequency, it can not only offer the relationship between forecast error and joint operation risk, but also estimate the maximum and minimum critical value of the standard deviation of flood forecasting errors according to the capacity of flood downstream area and the preference of decision makers, so as to provide the important basis for operation decision-making.
(6) Joint utilizable regulation risk analysis of Xiluodu Reservoir and the Three Gorges Reservoir. Considering joint utilizable regulation of the cascade reservoirs involve the aspects like power generation, shipping, water supply and ecological, we establish the value function respectively, and present a risk evaluation index system of the joint utilizable regulation. On this basis, we construct composite risk calculation model for joint utilizable regulation. And we apply it in the joint utilizable regulation of Xiluodu Reservoir and the Three Gorges Reservoir, make the risk assessment and analysis of dispatching schemes of different preferences and obtain the risk evaluation results for various dispatching schemes, providing the reference for joint operation decision-making with various preferences.
(7) Coordination mechanism betwwen flood control and benefit of controlling cascade reservoirs on the upper reaches of Yangtze River. Based on analysis of characteristics of flood of Yangtze river basin and the flood control capacity of its trunk stream and tributaries, for15reservoirs on trunk stream and tributaries of the upper reaches of the Yangtze River with the Three Gorges as the center, in view of analysis of compensation principle of hydrology and storage capacity and the characteristics of floods on upper reaches, we propose flood control operation compensation mechanism of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River for the large-sized flood. The compensation mechanism includes the principle, model and mode of the compensation operation, so as to reduce the flood loss downstream and increase joint flood control benefit of reservoir group; In view of the small and medium-sized flood, we establish the coordination mechanism with the flood control and benefit as the target, including the coordination of flood control and later water storage and the coordination mode of flood control and power generating, to increase the degree of flood utilization and improve benefits. Moreover, with a comparative analysis of the existing dispatching schemes for flood, we illustrate the feasibility of the thought in this paper and provide a theoretical support for joint operation of the cascade reservoirs on the trunk stream and tributaries of the upper reaches of the Yangtze River in the flood season.
大型流域上的控制性水库工程,作为社会经济、生态环境的重要组成部分,其调度风险管理工作的意义尤为值得重视。随着我国大规模水库群的逐渐形成,这也将成为流域综合管理必然的发展趋势。本文针对国民经济及社会发展的需要,选取长江流域上大型控制性水库工程作为研究对象,按照风险分析的主体路线,分别从风险因子识别与量化、风险估计与评价、多目标决策、风险与效益协调优化、协调机制建设等方面进行了系统和深入的研究,建立了综合利用水库调度风险分析的基本理论与方法体系。其成果有助于大型流域防灾减灾的决策,有利于提高水资源利用整体效益,促进工程技术、社会经济、生态环境的良性循环与可持续发展。全文取得的主要成果如下：
(1)风险因子量化方法及评价指标体系。针对水库调度面临的水文、水力、工程状态、人为管理等诸多不确定性因素,分析可能对水库调度效益产生影响的主要风险因素；对可能涉及到的随机性、模糊性因子,径流预报误差,以及径流与洪水的随机模拟,提出了相应的处理方法,初步形成了单个风险因子量化方法体系；基于Copula函数能由各变量的边缘分布得到多个变量的联合分布的特点,提出了多风险因子组合量化方法。进一步,在风险因子识别及量化方法的研究基础上建立了概化的风险评价指标体系,为水库调度风险分析的后续工作开展提供了重要基础。
(2)基于改进蒙特卡洛方法的风险估计。以蒙特卡洛和最大熵方法为基础,充分利用蒙特卡洛方法能避开研究对象的复杂内部特性描述以及这些特性对系统行为或效益的解析分析上的困难的特点,结合最大熵方法可利用少量的已知信息分析确定变量最佳分布形式的优点,提出了水库调度风险估计的改进蒙特卡洛方法,对提出方法的收敛性进行了数学证明,并解释了所提出的方法能够提高收敛速度的原因,从而避免了蒙特卡洛方法在计算小概率事件时需要大量模拟计算的缺点,实现了对复杂工程体系下众多风险评价指标的快速计算。
(3)水库调度多最小风险问题描述的随机多目标决策模型。针对综合利用水库调度涉及多种不确定性和多个目标,以入库径流的随机性为重点,建立了随机多目标调度决策模型,并将其转化为以拟定目标值为水平值的多最小风险问题,提出了基于频率分级考虑的入库径流模拟和逐步优化算法的寻求随机多目标决策最佳妥协解的序列解法,以方便决策者根据水库调度的不同要求及目标对调度运行过程实施决策优化,为水库调度随机多目标决策提供了一条新的思路。
(4)基于概率最优化方法的风险与效益协调优化模型。以随机多目标调度决策及改进的蒙特卡洛方法为基础,针对防洪、发电、供水、航运等调度要求及目标,建立了综合利用水库多目标调度风险分析模型,深入研究了多目标调度风险评价指标体系的权重确定方法及综合风险计算方法,在此基础上提出了概率最优化方法和风险与效益协调优化模型,在三峡水库综合利用调度风险分析的实际工程应用中验证了方法和模型的可行性和有效性。
(5)溪洛渡与三峡水库联合防洪调度风险分析。首先建立了梯级水库群联合防洪调度风险评价指标体系,并以洪水预报中偶然误差的正态量化为基础,提出了在容许标准差范围内对入库洪水过程进行随机模拟的方法,进一步基于对洪水频率进行分级考虑的思想构建了梯级水库群联合防洪调度风险分析模型和基于改进蒙特卡洛方法的求解方法。通过在溪洛渡和三峡水库的联合防洪调度实际项目中的应用,表明该方法与模型合理可行,具有比较宽的适用性,在库群遭遇一定频率典型洪水过程时,不仅能给出预报误差与联合调度风险的关系,而且能根据下游分蓄洪区本身承受能力和决策者偏好估计出洪水预报误差标准差的上下临界值,为调度决策提供了重要依据。
(6)溪洛渡与三峡水库联合兴利调度风险分析。考虑水库群联合兴利调度涉及到的发电、航运、供水和生态四个方面,分别建立其价值函数,提出了联合兴利调度风险评价指标体系。在此基础上,构建了联合兴利调度综合风险计算模型。并以溪洛渡和三峡水库联合兴利调度为实际应用,进行了风险评价分析,分别选取了不同偏好的调度方案进行评价分析,得出了各种方案的风险评价结果,为各种偏好的联合调度决策提供了参考。
(7)长江上游控制性水库群防洪与兴利协调机制。在对长江流域洪水特征及其干支流防洪库容进行分析的基础上,对于以三峡为中心的长江上游干支流的15座水库,基于水文与库容补偿原理和上游的洪水特性分析,针对大洪水情况提出了长江中下游的防洪调度补偿机制,包括补偿调度的原则、模型及方式,以期在动用最小防洪库容条件下,减少下游洪灾损失和增加水库群联合防洪效益；针对中小型洪水情况建立了防洪与兴利目标的协调机制,包括防洪与后期蓄水的协调及防洪与发电的协调方式,以期增加洪水资源化程度和提高兴利效益。并通过与现有应对洪水的调度方案对比分析,说明了本文思想的可行之处,为长江上游干支流水库群汛期联合调度提供了重要的理论支撑。
Climate change around the world has detrimental impact on the survival of human beings and ecological environment. In order to deal with the floods that occur frequently owning to extreme weather, the programs of CPC Central Committee and State Council in the12th Five-Year Plan emphasize on facing the climate change around world actively, reinforcing the protection of ecology and the establishment of system of disaster prevention and mitigation and enhancing efforts on environmental protection and on resource conservation and management. Thus, it is a significantly practical and unavoidable problem that how to improve the engineering and non-engineering measures on flood control and the efficient utilization of water resource under adverse weather conditions and then to realize the coordinative development of economy, society, resources and environment.
The controlling projects of reservoirs on large river basins is an important part of the socio-economic, ecological environment, thus, the significance of its operation management risk is particularly noteworthy. With the gradual formation of large-scale reservoir group, integrated management in watershed has become the inevitable trend of development. This paper, for need of the development of national economy and society, chooses the controlling projects of reservoirs on Yangtze River basin as the object of study. According to main route of risk analysis, it makes a systemic and in-depth study, separately from the identification and quantization of risk factors, risk estimate and evaluation, multi-objective decision, coordination optimization between risk and benefit, construction of coordination mechanism and so on, to establish the basic theory and systemic methods of risk analysis of the multi-purpose reservoir operation. The achievements facilitate decision-making on disaster prevention and mitigation of the large river basin, help to improve the overall efficiency of water resources utilization and promote the benign cycle and sustainable development of engineering technology, social economy, and the ecological environment. The main achievements made in the full paper are as follows:
(1) The quantitative method and evaluation index system of risk factors. For the numerous uncertain factors confronted with reservoir operation such as hydraulic and hydrological factors, engineering state, human management and so on, we analyze the main risk factors that possibly affect the reservoir operation; For the ones probably referred such as randomness, fuzzy factor, runoff forecast error, and runoff and the flood of random simulation, we put forward the corresponding processing methods and form a quantitative method system for single risk factor; Based on the specialty of Copula function that joint distribution of several variables can be obtained through the marginal distribution of each variable, we put forward the combining quantitative method of multiple risk factors. Furthermore, based on the study on the method of identification and quantization of risk factors, we propose the generalized risk evaluation index system, providing an important basis for subsequent job on the risk analysis of reservoir operation.
(2) Risk estimate based on improved monte carlo method. Based on the method of monte carlo and maximum entropy, making full use of specialty of the monte carlo method that it can avoid describing the complex internal characteristics of the study object and the difficulties on analytical analysis of the system behavior or benefit owing to those characteristics, combining with the maximum entropy method which can use a small amount of known information to analyze and then determine the best distribution form of the variables, we put forward the improved monte carlo method on the risk calculation of reservoir operation, offer the mathematical proof on convergence of the proposed method, explain why the proposed method can improve the convergence rate, thus avoiding the shortcoming of the monte carlo method that calculation of small probability events needs a great quantity of simulation calculation, and realize the fast calculation of multiple risk indicators for complex engineering system.
(3) Random multi-objective decision-making model for describing the multiple minimum risk problem of reservoir operation. For various uncertainty and multiple goals of multi-purpose reservoir operation, with the randomness of the incoming runoff as the key point, we set up random multi-objective decision-making model for reservoir operation. And then transforming it to the multiple minimum risk problem with the target value drawn up as the level value, we propose the runoff simulation based on considering frequency diversity and the sequence solution of seeking best compromise solution to random multi-objective decision by progressive optimization algorithm. Then, it is convenient for decision makers to make an optimal decision according to the different requirements and goals of reservoir operation,and it offers a new idea to random multi-objective decision-making of the reservoir operation.
(4) Coordination optimization model between risk and benefit based on the probability optimization method. Based on the random multi-objective decision-making of reservoir operation and improved monte carlo method, for the demand of flood control, power generation, water supply, shipping and such kind of operation requirements and object, we establish the multi-objective operation risk analysis model of multi-purpose reservoir, and make a in-depth study on the method of determining weight to the risk evaluation index system of multi-objective operation and the calculation method of composite risk. Then, based on this, we propose probability optimization method, and verify the feasibility and good effectiveness of the method and model in the practical project by multi-purpose operation risk analysis of the Three Gorges Reservoir.
(5) Joint flood control operation risk analysis of Xiluodu Reservoir and the Three Gorges Reservoir. First, we establish the risk evaluation index system of the joint flood control operation of the cascade reservoirs. Secondly, based on normal quantization of accidental error in flood forecasting, we put forward the random simulation method for incoming flood process with the standard deviation in the allowable range. Furthermore, based on the idea considering flood frequency diversity, we set up the risk analysis model of the joint flood control operation of the cascade reservoirs and the solving method based on the improved monte carlo method. Through the application in the project joint flood control operation of Xiluodu Reservoir and the Three Gorges Reservoir, this method and model prove reasonable,feasible and of quite wide applicability. Under the condition that when cascade reservoirs suffer the typical flood of certain frequency, it can not only offer the relationship between forecast error and joint operation risk, but also estimate the maximum and minimum critical value of the standard deviation of flood forecasting errors according to the capacity of flood downstream area and the preference of decision makers, so as to provide the important basis for operation decision-making.
(6) Joint utilizable regulation risk analysis of Xiluodu Reservoir and the Three Gorges Reservoir. Considering joint utilizable regulation of the cascade reservoirs involve the aspects like power generation, shipping, water supply and ecological, we establish the value function respectively, and present a risk evaluation index system of the joint utilizable regulation. On this basis, we construct composite risk calculation model for joint utilizable regulation. And we apply it in the joint utilizable regulation of Xiluodu Reservoir and the Three Gorges Reservoir, make the risk assessment and analysis of dispatching schemes of different preferences and obtain the risk evaluation results for various dispatching schemes, providing the reference for joint operation decision-making with various preferences.
(7) Coordination mechanism betwwen flood control and benefit of controlling cascade reservoirs on the upper reaches of Yangtze River. Based on analysis of characteristics of flood of Yangtze river basin and the flood control capacity of its trunk stream and tributaries, for15reservoirs on trunk stream and tributaries of the upper reaches of the Yangtze River with the Three Gorges as the center, in view of analysis of compensation principle of hydrology and storage capacity and the characteristics of floods on upper reaches, we propose flood control operation compensation mechanism of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River for the large-sized flood. The compensation mechanism includes the principle, model and mode of the compensation operation, so as to reduce the flood loss downstream and increase joint flood control benefit of reservoir group; In view of the small and medium-sized flood, we establish the coordination mechanism with the flood control and benefit as the target, including the coordination of flood control and later water storage and the coordination mode of flood control and power generating, to increase the degree of flood utilization and improve benefits. Moreover, with a comparative analysis of the existing dispatching schemes for flood, we illustrate the feasibility of the thought in this paper and provide a theoretical support for joint operation of the cascade reservoirs on the trunk stream and tributaries of the upper reaches of the Yangtze River in the flood season.
引文
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