中原经济区背景下河南重要矿产资源支撑及保障研究
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摘要
中原经济区的地理范围涉及河南、山东、安徽、河北、山西等5省,共30个地市和3个县区,经济总量仅次于长三角、珠三角及京津冀。从国家战略定位而言,该经济区要建设成为全国工业化、城镇化、信息化和农业现代化协调发展示范区。这样的功能定位无疑需要强大的矿产自然资源保障和支撑。而从经济区的内部结构看,河南省无论是在区域面积、人口,还是在经济规模方面都占经济区总量的60%以上,研究经济区的资源供给问题可以由研究河南省入手。目前河南已进入工业化中期,正处于快速工业化发展阶段。快速的经济增长相应导致了河南能源及作为工业原料的矿产资源的大量消耗。那么,目前的河南的经济发展和矿产资源形势究竟处于一个什么水平,中原经济区建设背景下河南需要如何保障其经济社会发展?这是当前河南经济社会发展和矿产资源产业领域需要加以研究解决的问题。今后,如果河南在中原经济区建设进程中的矿产资源保障能力不足,那么经济区建设蓝图将会成为空中楼阁,河南所面临的良好发展机会也将飘然而去。因此,选择以中原经济区背景下河南重要矿产资源支撑及保障研究为研究主题,探讨河南如何根据自身的经济和资源形势,科学分析中原经济区建设的矿产资源支撑及保障并提出对策,具有现实意义和研究价值。
本文结合中原经济区建设的现实背景,在理清经济区与矿产资源保障相关理论的基础上,分析河南经济发展与矿产资源供需形势,对河南未来10-15年几种重要的矿产资源需求进行预测,评估河南域内矿产资源承载力和保障能力,并提出促进中原经济区建设的河南矿产资源保障战略对策。该研究成果能够为政府相关部门和矿业企业发展提供决策参考。
包括绪论和研究总结,全文结构分为七个章节。所开展的研究工作和得到的基本结论如下：
1.综述了经济区和矿产资源保障的相关理论,理清了经济区、矿产与区域经济、可持续发展等理论之间的联系机制。经济区是指经济活动相对独立、内部经济联系紧密、具有特定功能的地域空间,具有系统性、边界性、功能性、辐射性和动态性等几个特点。中原经济区以工业化、城镇化、信息化和农业现代化协调发展为功能定位,必然促使河南工业化和城镇化迅速推进,从而引发对能源、钢铁、水泥等矿产资源的大量消耗。矿产等自然资源虽然不一定为区域经济发展带来“福音”,甚至有可能是“诅咒”。但是,一旦我们清楚界定矿产资源丰裕度、矿产资源开发力度和矿产资源依赖度这三个概念,就会发现矿产资源对于保障区域经济发展至关重要。发展中国家在实现矿产资源可持续发展方面面临着更多的调整,为此矿业部门需要适应和创造一种新的组织管理方式,也需要政府、周边组织、民间社会群体的共同努力。矿产资源保障的基本任务就是要建立资源与社会经济发展相适应、安全、有效、合理的矿产资源供应体系和消费模式。
2.分析了河南经济发展与矿产资源供需现状,从而摸清了河南省经济发展“三化”水平、矿产资源禀赋及供给状况和矿产资源消费状况等资源经济形势。1998年至2012年以来,河南省的城镇化发展水平明显、持续上升,工业化水平稳中有增,但农业现代化综合指数波动较大且部分年份还呈下降状态。对三者的协整关系分析表明,在短期内工业化水平提升对城镇化水平的提升具有推动作用,但农业现代化对城镇化具有阻滞效应；农业现代化给城镇化和城镇化给工业化的正向冲击较小且不能持续；而工业化相对于农业现代化对城镇化发展更具意义。河南是矿产资源大省,优势矿产资源与结构性短缺的劣势矿产资源并存,煤炭、石油、电力、有色、冶金、建材、化工等矿业已发展成为全省的支柱产业。未来河南主要矿产资源生产能力和潜力仍然较大,但矿产勘查投入还须进一步得到保障。随着工业化和城镇化进程的推进,河南的矿产资源消费一直处于上升趋势,预计未来一段时间内还会得到强化。
3.预测了河南未来10-15年主要矿产资源的需求变化趋势。中原经济区建设的核心是“三化”协调,而“三化”又必然推动对矿产资源的大量消耗。在此背景下,河南矿产消费需求的主要影响因素应包括GDP、工业结构、城镇化水平、人口数量、技术进步等几个方面。结合这些主要影响因素,建立基于MATLAB技术的支持向量回归机(SVR)模型,得到了河南2013-2030年重要矿产需求的模拟与仿真预测。结果表明,在对各影响因素未来可能变化情景的合理设定下,未来10-20年河南煤炭、石油、天然气等主要矿产的消费需求将呈现一个倒U型曲线,并在不同时点形成峰值,其中,煤炭的峰值点为2018年,石油和天然气的峰值点为2024年。
4.评估了河南矿产资源承载能力。通过回顾矿产资源承载力评价方法与模型,筛选影响因素和建立指标体系,对河南省煤炭、铁矿、铝矿、钼矿、金矿等矿产保有储量、资源储量、现有资源总量的经济承载力进行了测算,并对现有资源总量到2020年的潜在经济承载力进行分析和预测。结果表明,相对于河南工业化发展的步伐和速度,河南省主要矿产资源承载能力不足。煤炭资源是促进河南省国民生产总值提升的主要资源,钼矿、金矿和铝矿虽然在河南储量相对丰富,但是由于开采技术的限制以及浪费的原因,三种矿石的经济可利用系数很低,它们的承载力是负值。
5.提出了促进中原经济区建设的河南矿产资源保障战略对策。同任何区域发展一样,促进中原经济区建设,必须要有坚实的矿产资源做后盾。在考虑河南经济发展与矿产资源供需现状,未来10-15年主要矿产资源的需求变化趋势,以及矿产资源承载能力等现实因素的基础上,未来中原经济区建设背景下河南矿产资源保障战略应该从矿产资源勘查、资源节约集约利用、资源替代与新能源、矿产企业“走出去”等四个方面重点推进,多管齐下,建立起保障经济区建设的矿产资源保障体系。
本文的创新之处体现在以下两个方面：
(1)研究视角的新意。目前的相关研究要么探讨矿产资源消费与区域经济发展的关系,要么关注资源型地区的产业发展和转型问题,没有关于区域资源承载力以及发展评价之间内部联系的深入研究,同时也很少有深入研究经济区建设中的资源保障问题。而本文主要从中原经济区建设的资源需求角度出发,结合河南省的实际案例,重点研究河南省在中原经济区建设中的矿产资源支撑及保障问题,因而研究视角具有一定的新意。
(2)研究思路和框架的新意。本研究在科学分析河南经济发展和矿产资源需求现状的基础上,实证评价河南所能提供的矿产资源支撑能力,在此基础上提出中原经济区建设的河南矿产资源保障战略。相比较而言,该研究框架与思路具有一定的新颖之处。
当然,受限于资料和数据收集的完整性,本研究在矿产资源需求预测和供给能力评价中只是选择了几种代表性矿种,今后还需积累数据资料,完善其他矿种的需求预测和供给能力评价。
The geographical range of Central Plains Economic Zone covers Henan, Shandong, Anhui, Hebei, and Shanxi, including30cities and3counties. Its economic aggregate is only secondary to Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region. In terms of strategic positioning, the economic zone will be built into China's demonstration area with harmonious development of industrialization, urbanization, informatization, and agricultural modernization. Such function positioning undoubtedly needs powerful natural mineral resources guarantee and support. In aspect of internal structure of the economic zone, Henan Province accounts for over60%in terms of area, population, and economic scale. Currently Henan has entered the middle period of industrialization, which is the stage of rapid industrialization. The fast economic growth correspondingly causes large consumption of Henan energies and mineral resources. Then, what are the status of Henan's economic development and mineral resources? How to guarantee Henan's economic development under the construction of Central Plains Economic Region(CPER)? These are the problems to be solved during Henan's economic and social development and in mineral resource industry. In the future, if the mineral resources are in shortage during the construction of Central Plains Economic Region(CPER), the blueprint of economic zone would be castle in the air, and the precious opportunity would be lost. Therefore, it has realistic significance and analysis value to select important Henan mineral resource support and security as research subject under the construction of Central Plains Economic Region(CPER), and discuss how to scientifically formulate mineral resource guarantee policy strategy to promote the construction of Central Plains Economic Region(CPER) in light of Henan's economic and resource advantages.
In combination with the realistic background of construction of Central Plains Economic Region(CPER) and on the basis of relevant theories of economic zone and mineral resource guarantee, the paper analyzes the situations of Henan's economic development and mineral resource supply and demand, predicts Henan's demands of important mineral resources in future 10-15years, appraises Henan's mineral resource bearing capacity and guarantee capability, and puts forward Henan mineral resource guarantee strategies to promote Central Plains Economic Region(CPER). The research achievement can provide references for relevant departments and mineral enterprises to make decisions.
The paper consists of seven parts, including introduction and research conclusion. The research work and basic conclusion are shown as follows:
1. The paper introduces relevant theories of economic zone and mineral resource support security, and expounds the theory relationships of economic zone, mineral, regional economy, sustainable development and relevant mineral resource strategy. Economic zone refers to the regional space in which economic activities are relatively independent, and internal economy is closely connected. The space shall have special functions and clear boundary, with systematic, functional, radioactive and dynamic characteristics, etc. Central Plains Economic Region(CPER) uses harmonious development of industrialization, urbanization, informatization, and agricultural modernization as functional positioning, which inevitably promotes Henan's industrialization and urbanization and consumes large amounts of energy, steel, cement, etc. Natural resources such as minerals not always bring good news to regional economic development; instead, natural resources even may bring curse. However, once we know the three concepts-the abundance of mineral resources, development intensity of mineral resource, and dependence degree of mineral resources, we will find out that mineral resources play a crucial role in guaranteeing regional economic development. The developing countries face more adjustments when realizing sustainable development of mineral resources. Therefore, the mineral department needs to adapt to and create a new operation method, which needs common efforts of government, surrounding organizations and civil social groups. The basic task of strategic management of mineral resource is to establish safe, effective, and reasonable mineral resource supply system and consumption mode which coordinate with social economic development.
2. The paper analyzes the status quo of supply and demand of Henan economic development and mineral resource, so as to make clear levels of "industrialization, urbanization, and agricultural modernization" of Henan's economic development, mineral resources supply and demand, and mineral resource consumption, etc. Since1998, Henan's urbanization has developed rapidly and industrial level has increased steadily, but comprehensive indexes of agricultural modernization have fluctuated greatly; even in some years, the indexes decreased. The analysis on the co-integration relationship of the three factors shows that in short term, the improvement of industrialization level promotes the urbanization level, but agricultural modernization brings about retarding effect to urbanization. The positive impact from agricultural modernization to urbanization and positive impact from urbanization to industrialization are small and not sustainable. However, compared with agricultural modernization, the industrialization plays a more important role in urbanization. Henan is a large province of mineral resources, with the coexistence of advantageous mineral resources and disadvantageous mineral resources featuring constructional shortage. The coal, petroleum, electricity, non-ferrous metals, metallurgy, building material, chemical industry, etc. have become pillar industries of the province. In the future, Henan's production capacity and potential of main mineral resources are still large, but mineral exploration needs to be further guaranteed. With the progress of industrialization and urbanization, Henan's mineral resource consumption always keeps increasing and will continue to increase according to prediction in the future.
3. The paper predicts the change tendency of Henan's demand and supply of main mineral resources in future10-15years. The core of Central Plains Economic Zone is coordination of "industrialization, urbanization, and agricultural modernization", which inevitably consumes large amount of mineral resources. Under the background, the main influential factors of Henan's mineral consumption demand shall include GDP, industrial structure, urbanization level, population size, and technical progress, etc. In combination with these main influential factors, establish SVR Model based on MATLAB technology to get the analog and simulation prediction of Henan's demands of important minerals in2013-2030. The result shows that under the condition of reasonably settings, in the future10-20years, Henan's consumption demands of coal, petroleum, natural gas, etc. will feature an inverse U-shape curve and form peaks at different time. Thereinto, the peak point of coal is2018and peak points of petroleum and natural gas are2024.
4. The paper appraises Henan's bearing capacity of mineral resources. After reviewing the appraisal method and model of bearing capacity of mineral resources, select influential factors and establish index system to predict the mineral reserves, resource reserves, and current resource's economic bearing capacity of coal, iron mine, aluminum ore, molybdenum ore, and gold ore, etc. Besides, it analyzes and predicts the potential economic bearing capacity of current resource amount in2020. The result shows that compared with the pace and speed of Henan industrial development, the bearing capacity of Henan's main mineral resources are in shortage. The coal resource is the main resource which contributes to the improvement of Henan's GNP. Although Henan is rich in molybdenum ore, gold ore, and aluminum ore, but due to restrictions of exploitation technologies and waste, the economic utilization coefficient of the three minerals is low and their bearing capacities are negative values.
5. The paper puts forward support and security for Henan mineral resources, which promote the construction of Central Plains Economic Region(CPER). Like any regional development, the construction of Central Plains Economic Zone must have solid mineral resources as backup forces. On the basis of considering Henan's economic development, mineral resource supply and demand, change tendency of demand of main mineral resources in future10-15years, and bearing capacity of mineral resources, in the nature, support and security of Henan vital mineral resources shall, under the background of Central Plains Economic Region(CPER), emphasize on mineral resource exploration, resource saving and intensive use, resource substitution and new energy, and mineral enterprises "going out", so as to establish mineral resource guarantee system to guarantee construction of economic zone.
The innovations of the paper are summed up in the following two aspects:
(1) New conception of research perspective. Currently, relevant researches mainly discuss the relationship between mineral resource consumption and regional economic development, or pay attention to the industrial development and transformation of resource area. However, the researches seldom deeply analyze the resource guarantee problems during construction of economic zone. In contrast, the paper, in light of resource demand of economic zone construction and in combination with Henan's practical cases, mainly analyzes Henan's mineral resource guarantee strategies during the construction of Central Plains Economic Zone. Therefore, the research perspective is innovative to certain degree.
(2) Innovation of research idea and framework. The research, on the basis of scientifically analyzing Henan economic development and mineral resource demand, appraises the mineral resource supporting capacity provided by Henan. On the basis, it puts forward support and security for Henan mineral resources, which promote the construction of Central Plains Economic Zone. In comparison, the research framework and idea are innovative to certain degree.
Certainly, restricted by the completeness of data and information, the research only selects several representative minerals to predict mineral resource demand and appraise supply capability. In the future, we will accumulate data and predict the demand and appraise the supply capability of other minerals.
本文结合中原经济区建设的现实背景,在理清经济区与矿产资源保障相关理论的基础上,分析河南经济发展与矿产资源供需形势,对河南未来10-15年几种重要的矿产资源需求进行预测,评估河南域内矿产资源承载力和保障能力,并提出促进中原经济区建设的河南矿产资源保障战略对策。该研究成果能够为政府相关部门和矿业企业发展提供决策参考。
包括绪论和研究总结,全文结构分为七个章节。所开展的研究工作和得到的基本结论如下：
1.综述了经济区和矿产资源保障的相关理论,理清了经济区、矿产与区域经济、可持续发展等理论之间的联系机制。经济区是指经济活动相对独立、内部经济联系紧密、具有特定功能的地域空间,具有系统性、边界性、功能性、辐射性和动态性等几个特点。中原经济区以工业化、城镇化、信息化和农业现代化协调发展为功能定位,必然促使河南工业化和城镇化迅速推进,从而引发对能源、钢铁、水泥等矿产资源的大量消耗。矿产等自然资源虽然不一定为区域经济发展带来“福音”,甚至有可能是“诅咒”。但是,一旦我们清楚界定矿产资源丰裕度、矿产资源开发力度和矿产资源依赖度这三个概念,就会发现矿产资源对于保障区域经济发展至关重要。发展中国家在实现矿产资源可持续发展方面面临着更多的调整,为此矿业部门需要适应和创造一种新的组织管理方式,也需要政府、周边组织、民间社会群体的共同努力。矿产资源保障的基本任务就是要建立资源与社会经济发展相适应、安全、有效、合理的矿产资源供应体系和消费模式。
2.分析了河南经济发展与矿产资源供需现状,从而摸清了河南省经济发展“三化”水平、矿产资源禀赋及供给状况和矿产资源消费状况等资源经济形势。1998年至2012年以来,河南省的城镇化发展水平明显、持续上升,工业化水平稳中有增,但农业现代化综合指数波动较大且部分年份还呈下降状态。对三者的协整关系分析表明,在短期内工业化水平提升对城镇化水平的提升具有推动作用,但农业现代化对城镇化具有阻滞效应；农业现代化给城镇化和城镇化给工业化的正向冲击较小且不能持续；而工业化相对于农业现代化对城镇化发展更具意义。河南是矿产资源大省,优势矿产资源与结构性短缺的劣势矿产资源并存,煤炭、石油、电力、有色、冶金、建材、化工等矿业已发展成为全省的支柱产业。未来河南主要矿产资源生产能力和潜力仍然较大,但矿产勘查投入还须进一步得到保障。随着工业化和城镇化进程的推进,河南的矿产资源消费一直处于上升趋势,预计未来一段时间内还会得到强化。
3.预测了河南未来10-15年主要矿产资源的需求变化趋势。中原经济区建设的核心是“三化”协调,而“三化”又必然推动对矿产资源的大量消耗。在此背景下,河南矿产消费需求的主要影响因素应包括GDP、工业结构、城镇化水平、人口数量、技术进步等几个方面。结合这些主要影响因素,建立基于MATLAB技术的支持向量回归机(SVR)模型,得到了河南2013-2030年重要矿产需求的模拟与仿真预测。结果表明,在对各影响因素未来可能变化情景的合理设定下,未来10-20年河南煤炭、石油、天然气等主要矿产的消费需求将呈现一个倒U型曲线,并在不同时点形成峰值,其中,煤炭的峰值点为2018年,石油和天然气的峰值点为2024年。
4.评估了河南矿产资源承载能力。通过回顾矿产资源承载力评价方法与模型,筛选影响因素和建立指标体系,对河南省煤炭、铁矿、铝矿、钼矿、金矿等矿产保有储量、资源储量、现有资源总量的经济承载力进行了测算,并对现有资源总量到2020年的潜在经济承载力进行分析和预测。结果表明,相对于河南工业化发展的步伐和速度,河南省主要矿产资源承载能力不足。煤炭资源是促进河南省国民生产总值提升的主要资源,钼矿、金矿和铝矿虽然在河南储量相对丰富,但是由于开采技术的限制以及浪费的原因,三种矿石的经济可利用系数很低,它们的承载力是负值。
5.提出了促进中原经济区建设的河南矿产资源保障战略对策。同任何区域发展一样,促进中原经济区建设,必须要有坚实的矿产资源做后盾。在考虑河南经济发展与矿产资源供需现状,未来10-15年主要矿产资源的需求变化趋势,以及矿产资源承载能力等现实因素的基础上,未来中原经济区建设背景下河南矿产资源保障战略应该从矿产资源勘查、资源节约集约利用、资源替代与新能源、矿产企业“走出去”等四个方面重点推进,多管齐下,建立起保障经济区建设的矿产资源保障体系。
本文的创新之处体现在以下两个方面：
(1)研究视角的新意。目前的相关研究要么探讨矿产资源消费与区域经济发展的关系,要么关注资源型地区的产业发展和转型问题,没有关于区域资源承载力以及发展评价之间内部联系的深入研究,同时也很少有深入研究经济区建设中的资源保障问题。而本文主要从中原经济区建设的资源需求角度出发,结合河南省的实际案例,重点研究河南省在中原经济区建设中的矿产资源支撑及保障问题,因而研究视角具有一定的新意。
(2)研究思路和框架的新意。本研究在科学分析河南经济发展和矿产资源需求现状的基础上,实证评价河南所能提供的矿产资源支撑能力,在此基础上提出中原经济区建设的河南矿产资源保障战略。相比较而言,该研究框架与思路具有一定的新颖之处。
当然,受限于资料和数据收集的完整性,本研究在矿产资源需求预测和供给能力评价中只是选择了几种代表性矿种,今后还需积累数据资料,完善其他矿种的需求预测和供给能力评价。
The geographical range of Central Plains Economic Zone covers Henan, Shandong, Anhui, Hebei, and Shanxi, including30cities and3counties. Its economic aggregate is only secondary to Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region. In terms of strategic positioning, the economic zone will be built into China's demonstration area with harmonious development of industrialization, urbanization, informatization, and agricultural modernization. Such function positioning undoubtedly needs powerful natural mineral resources guarantee and support. In aspect of internal structure of the economic zone, Henan Province accounts for over60%in terms of area, population, and economic scale. Currently Henan has entered the middle period of industrialization, which is the stage of rapid industrialization. The fast economic growth correspondingly causes large consumption of Henan energies and mineral resources. Then, what are the status of Henan's economic development and mineral resources? How to guarantee Henan's economic development under the construction of Central Plains Economic Region(CPER)? These are the problems to be solved during Henan's economic and social development and in mineral resource industry. In the future, if the mineral resources are in shortage during the construction of Central Plains Economic Region(CPER), the blueprint of economic zone would be castle in the air, and the precious opportunity would be lost. Therefore, it has realistic significance and analysis value to select important Henan mineral resource support and security as research subject under the construction of Central Plains Economic Region(CPER), and discuss how to scientifically formulate mineral resource guarantee policy strategy to promote the construction of Central Plains Economic Region(CPER) in light of Henan's economic and resource advantages.
In combination with the realistic background of construction of Central Plains Economic Region(CPER) and on the basis of relevant theories of economic zone and mineral resource guarantee, the paper analyzes the situations of Henan's economic development and mineral resource supply and demand, predicts Henan's demands of important mineral resources in future 10-15years, appraises Henan's mineral resource bearing capacity and guarantee capability, and puts forward Henan mineral resource guarantee strategies to promote Central Plains Economic Region(CPER). The research achievement can provide references for relevant departments and mineral enterprises to make decisions.
The paper consists of seven parts, including introduction and research conclusion. The research work and basic conclusion are shown as follows:
1. The paper introduces relevant theories of economic zone and mineral resource support security, and expounds the theory relationships of economic zone, mineral, regional economy, sustainable development and relevant mineral resource strategy. Economic zone refers to the regional space in which economic activities are relatively independent, and internal economy is closely connected. The space shall have special functions and clear boundary, with systematic, functional, radioactive and dynamic characteristics, etc. Central Plains Economic Region(CPER) uses harmonious development of industrialization, urbanization, informatization, and agricultural modernization as functional positioning, which inevitably promotes Henan's industrialization and urbanization and consumes large amounts of energy, steel, cement, etc. Natural resources such as minerals not always bring good news to regional economic development; instead, natural resources even may bring curse. However, once we know the three concepts-the abundance of mineral resources, development intensity of mineral resource, and dependence degree of mineral resources, we will find out that mineral resources play a crucial role in guaranteeing regional economic development. The developing countries face more adjustments when realizing sustainable development of mineral resources. Therefore, the mineral department needs to adapt to and create a new operation method, which needs common efforts of government, surrounding organizations and civil social groups. The basic task of strategic management of mineral resource is to establish safe, effective, and reasonable mineral resource supply system and consumption mode which coordinate with social economic development.
2. The paper analyzes the status quo of supply and demand of Henan economic development and mineral resource, so as to make clear levels of "industrialization, urbanization, and agricultural modernization" of Henan's economic development, mineral resources supply and demand, and mineral resource consumption, etc. Since1998, Henan's urbanization has developed rapidly and industrial level has increased steadily, but comprehensive indexes of agricultural modernization have fluctuated greatly; even in some years, the indexes decreased. The analysis on the co-integration relationship of the three factors shows that in short term, the improvement of industrialization level promotes the urbanization level, but agricultural modernization brings about retarding effect to urbanization. The positive impact from agricultural modernization to urbanization and positive impact from urbanization to industrialization are small and not sustainable. However, compared with agricultural modernization, the industrialization plays a more important role in urbanization. Henan is a large province of mineral resources, with the coexistence of advantageous mineral resources and disadvantageous mineral resources featuring constructional shortage. The coal, petroleum, electricity, non-ferrous metals, metallurgy, building material, chemical industry, etc. have become pillar industries of the province. In the future, Henan's production capacity and potential of main mineral resources are still large, but mineral exploration needs to be further guaranteed. With the progress of industrialization and urbanization, Henan's mineral resource consumption always keeps increasing and will continue to increase according to prediction in the future.
3. The paper predicts the change tendency of Henan's demand and supply of main mineral resources in future10-15years. The core of Central Plains Economic Zone is coordination of "industrialization, urbanization, and agricultural modernization", which inevitably consumes large amount of mineral resources. Under the background, the main influential factors of Henan's mineral consumption demand shall include GDP, industrial structure, urbanization level, population size, and technical progress, etc. In combination with these main influential factors, establish SVR Model based on MATLAB technology to get the analog and simulation prediction of Henan's demands of important minerals in2013-2030. The result shows that under the condition of reasonably settings, in the future10-20years, Henan's consumption demands of coal, petroleum, natural gas, etc. will feature an inverse U-shape curve and form peaks at different time. Thereinto, the peak point of coal is2018and peak points of petroleum and natural gas are2024.
4. The paper appraises Henan's bearing capacity of mineral resources. After reviewing the appraisal method and model of bearing capacity of mineral resources, select influential factors and establish index system to predict the mineral reserves, resource reserves, and current resource's economic bearing capacity of coal, iron mine, aluminum ore, molybdenum ore, and gold ore, etc. Besides, it analyzes and predicts the potential economic bearing capacity of current resource amount in2020. The result shows that compared with the pace and speed of Henan industrial development, the bearing capacity of Henan's main mineral resources are in shortage. The coal resource is the main resource which contributes to the improvement of Henan's GNP. Although Henan is rich in molybdenum ore, gold ore, and aluminum ore, but due to restrictions of exploitation technologies and waste, the economic utilization coefficient of the three minerals is low and their bearing capacities are negative values.
5. The paper puts forward support and security for Henan mineral resources, which promote the construction of Central Plains Economic Region(CPER). Like any regional development, the construction of Central Plains Economic Zone must have solid mineral resources as backup forces. On the basis of considering Henan's economic development, mineral resource supply and demand, change tendency of demand of main mineral resources in future10-15years, and bearing capacity of mineral resources, in the nature, support and security of Henan vital mineral resources shall, under the background of Central Plains Economic Region(CPER), emphasize on mineral resource exploration, resource saving and intensive use, resource substitution and new energy, and mineral enterprises "going out", so as to establish mineral resource guarantee system to guarantee construction of economic zone.
The innovations of the paper are summed up in the following two aspects:
(1) New conception of research perspective. Currently, relevant researches mainly discuss the relationship between mineral resource consumption and regional economic development, or pay attention to the industrial development and transformation of resource area. However, the researches seldom deeply analyze the resource guarantee problems during construction of economic zone. In contrast, the paper, in light of resource demand of economic zone construction and in combination with Henan's practical cases, mainly analyzes Henan's mineral resource guarantee strategies during the construction of Central Plains Economic Zone. Therefore, the research perspective is innovative to certain degree.
(2) Innovation of research idea and framework. The research, on the basis of scientifically analyzing Henan economic development and mineral resource demand, appraises the mineral resource supporting capacity provided by Henan. On the basis, it puts forward support and security for Henan mineral resources, which promote the construction of Central Plains Economic Zone. In comparison, the research framework and idea are innovative to certain degree.
Certainly, restricted by the completeness of data and information, the research only selects several representative minerals to predict mineral resource demand and appraise supply capability. In the future, we will accumulate data and predict the demand and appraise the supply capability of other minerals.
引文
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