铁路集装箱运输系统规划若干问题研究
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摘要
集装箱运输作为一种先进的现代化运输方式,具有运输安全、手续简便等特点,便于实现多式联运和“门到门”运输,可以大大加快货物送达速度,减少运输成本,正逐渐成为高质量货物运输的首选方式。改革开放以来,我国铁路集装箱运输发展迅速,已成为铁路货物运输方式中的一个重要组成部分。为保证集装箱运输的长期可持续发展,集装箱运输体系的构建非常重要。因此,如何加强集装箱运输系统规划,提出适合我国国情路情的规划方法,就成为当前亟待解决的问题。
论文界定了铁路集装箱运输系统,根据系统工程理论,对该系统的组成和各组成部分间的复杂关系进行了研究。在分析我国集装箱运输现状的基础上,对铁路集装箱运输系统的演变及相关问题进行了探讨,进而提出了铁路集装箱运输系统规划主要包括运量预测、运输网络构建、运力资源配置等主要内容。
运量预测是制定规划的基础,合理可行的预测方法是得到较为准确数据的保证。本研究在分析主流预测方法的基础上,选择灰色模型方法和指数平滑方法,针对各自的不足进行改进,提出综合运用两种方法的综合预测方法,并结合我国铁路集装箱运输实际确定了组合权重。实际预测数据的对比显示,组合预测方法较好地弥补了单纯采用一种方法的缺点,提高了预测的准确程度。
针对目前铁路集装箱运输网络布局存在的问题,划分了集装箱办理站布局的层次结构,提出了基于聚类分析的层次规划法,对集装箱办理站布局进行规划;针对铁路集装箱运输的特点和其在集装箱多式联运中的地位,提出了依据运输密度确定集装箱运输通道和集装箱双层通道的规划方法。
从班列运输组织模式、班列的开行规模和集装箱箱体资源的调配三个方面,研究了铁路集装箱骨干网络的运力资源配置问题。在传统的车流组织和集装箱开行方案的研究基础上,为适应骨干网络中“客运化集装箱班列”这一运输组织模式,建立了基于班列开行总成本最小化为目标的运力资源配置模型,针对模型中决策变量的类型和特点给出了考虑班列开行设计和货物流量分配的综合优化方法,并对此进行算例分析。
论文注重理论联系实际,针对辐射六省一市的深圳盐田港进行了集装箱多式联运系统规划的实证分析。应用本研究提出的规划和预测方法,对盐田港发展集装箱运输的规划和前景进行了分析,并提出了合理的建议。
As an advanced transportation, the container transportation has the characteristics of safe transport, convenient procedure, easy to implement multimodal transport and door-to-door transport which can accelerate freight service speed, reduce transportation cost and gradually becomes the first choice of high quality freight transportation. Since the innovation and opening, railway container transportation grew rapidly in our country and has become an important part of railway freight transportation. To ensure the continuable development of container transportation, the construction of container transportation system is very important. Therefore, how to strengthen the system planning of container transportation and propose proper planning method are urgent problems.
This paper gives the borderline of railway container transportation system. According to the theory of systems engineering, this paper study on the components of railway container transportation system and the complex relation of these components. Based on analyzing the current status of container transportation in our country, this paper discusses the evolving of railway container transportation system and related problems. This paper applies hierarchical planning method to study on the construction of container transportation network, the layout of container stations and the planning of transportation channel.
Transport volume forecast is the base of planning. And feasible and proper forecast methods guarantee to get more exact data. Based on the analysis of general forecast methods, this paper chooses grey model method and smooth exponential method to be the basic methods of railway container transportation volume forecast. Due to the shortage of these two methods itself, this paper improves on them and combine the result of these two methods with two weight values which are assured considering the practice of railway container transportation. The comparison to practical forecast data shows that this combined method remedied the shortage of single forecast method and enhance the exact of forecast.
This paper studied the assignment problem of transportation resource in railway container skeleton network from three aspects which are the pattern of train organization, the frequency of train and the distribution of container. Based on traditional approach of organization of traffic flow and railway container train planning, in order to adapt to the organization pattern which is similar to passenger transport, this paper built a model objective to minimize total cost. According to the characteristics of decision variables, this paper gave the integration optimization method of train planning and distribution of freight. The method was tested by a case study.
This paper also gave an instance to demonstrate the effectiveness of our methods. Using the proposed planning methods and forecast method, this paper made a plan for Yantian harbor in ShenZhen which can radiates six provinces and one metropolitan city. Based on the foreground analysis of this harbor, this paper also gave some reasonable proposals.
论文界定了铁路集装箱运输系统,根据系统工程理论,对该系统的组成和各组成部分间的复杂关系进行了研究。在分析我国集装箱运输现状的基础上,对铁路集装箱运输系统的演变及相关问题进行了探讨,进而提出了铁路集装箱运输系统规划主要包括运量预测、运输网络构建、运力资源配置等主要内容。
运量预测是制定规划的基础,合理可行的预测方法是得到较为准确数据的保证。本研究在分析主流预测方法的基础上,选择灰色模型方法和指数平滑方法,针对各自的不足进行改进,提出综合运用两种方法的综合预测方法,并结合我国铁路集装箱运输实际确定了组合权重。实际预测数据的对比显示,组合预测方法较好地弥补了单纯采用一种方法的缺点,提高了预测的准确程度。
针对目前铁路集装箱运输网络布局存在的问题,划分了集装箱办理站布局的层次结构,提出了基于聚类分析的层次规划法,对集装箱办理站布局进行规划;针对铁路集装箱运输的特点和其在集装箱多式联运中的地位,提出了依据运输密度确定集装箱运输通道和集装箱双层通道的规划方法。
从班列运输组织模式、班列的开行规模和集装箱箱体资源的调配三个方面,研究了铁路集装箱骨干网络的运力资源配置问题。在传统的车流组织和集装箱开行方案的研究基础上,为适应骨干网络中“客运化集装箱班列”这一运输组织模式,建立了基于班列开行总成本最小化为目标的运力资源配置模型,针对模型中决策变量的类型和特点给出了考虑班列开行设计和货物流量分配的综合优化方法,并对此进行算例分析。
论文注重理论联系实际,针对辐射六省一市的深圳盐田港进行了集装箱多式联运系统规划的实证分析。应用本研究提出的规划和预测方法,对盐田港发展集装箱运输的规划和前景进行了分析,并提出了合理的建议。
As an advanced transportation, the container transportation has the characteristics of safe transport, convenient procedure, easy to implement multimodal transport and door-to-door transport which can accelerate freight service speed, reduce transportation cost and gradually becomes the first choice of high quality freight transportation. Since the innovation and opening, railway container transportation grew rapidly in our country and has become an important part of railway freight transportation. To ensure the continuable development of container transportation, the construction of container transportation system is very important. Therefore, how to strengthen the system planning of container transportation and propose proper planning method are urgent problems.
This paper gives the borderline of railway container transportation system. According to the theory of systems engineering, this paper study on the components of railway container transportation system and the complex relation of these components. Based on analyzing the current status of container transportation in our country, this paper discusses the evolving of railway container transportation system and related problems. This paper applies hierarchical planning method to study on the construction of container transportation network, the layout of container stations and the planning of transportation channel.
Transport volume forecast is the base of planning. And feasible and proper forecast methods guarantee to get more exact data. Based on the analysis of general forecast methods, this paper chooses grey model method and smooth exponential method to be the basic methods of railway container transportation volume forecast. Due to the shortage of these two methods itself, this paper improves on them and combine the result of these two methods with two weight values which are assured considering the practice of railway container transportation. The comparison to practical forecast data shows that this combined method remedied the shortage of single forecast method and enhance the exact of forecast.
This paper studied the assignment problem of transportation resource in railway container skeleton network from three aspects which are the pattern of train organization, the frequency of train and the distribution of container. Based on traditional approach of organization of traffic flow and railway container train planning, in order to adapt to the organization pattern which is similar to passenger transport, this paper built a model objective to minimize total cost. According to the characteristics of decision variables, this paper gave the integration optimization method of train planning and distribution of freight. The method was tested by a case study.
This paper also gave an instance to demonstrate the effectiveness of our methods. Using the proposed planning methods and forecast method, this paper made a plan for Yantian harbor in ShenZhen which can radiates six provinces and one metropolitan city. Based on the foreground analysis of this harbor, this paper also gave some reasonable proposals.
引文
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