我国上市公司现金流量操纵的识别研究
|
摘要
20世纪80年代以来,以权责发生制为基础编制的盈余信息的真实性逐渐受到人们的质疑,同时现金流量信息因其可以避免权责发生制的弊端而备受关注。通过现金流量信息人们可以获取公司更多的经营信息和财务状况。但是作为受托管理上市公司的管理者基于私人利益也可能会操纵现金流量信息。现金流量操纵具有严重的后果,因而识别上市公司现金流量操纵,在一定程度上可消除资本市场信息不对称,优化资源配置,降低被操纵过的现金流量信息对利益相关者的危害。而如何有效识别现金流量操纵,是亟待解决的问题。本文就我国上市公司现金流量操纵的识别问题展开研究。
在理论部分本文首先界定了现金流量操纵的相关概念,对现金流量操纵与现金流量管理和利润操纵进行比较分析,阐述了现金流量操纵的理论基础；然后以现金流量操纵的识别为研究重点,在阅读国内外大量文献的基础上对其进行了系统的归纳总结；再次结合实际情况,分析了我国上市公司现金流量操纵的手段和识别方法；最后在上述分析的基础上从多角度构建了我国上市公司现金流量操纵识别的指标体系。在实证部分本文首先选取2005年至2009年因资金违规而被公开处罚的28家上市公司的作为研究现金流量操纵的样本,然后根据同行业、同年度和资产规模相近三个标准选择取了28家上市公司作为与之配对的控制样本,最后对我国上市公司现金流量操纵进行实证分析并构建了现金流量操纵的识别模型。
Logistic的回归结果显示,共有8个识别指标进入到识别模型,且这8个指标对现金流量操纵具有显著的识别能力。它们分别是：经营现金净流量债务总额比、净利润含现率、总资产增长率、每股经营现金净流量、其他应收款总资产比、支付给职工的现金比率、股权集中度和非标准无保留意见,分别代表了公司的财务状况、盈利能力、成长能力、现金流量指标、关联交易情况、用工情况、治理结构和审计意见。
本文最后总结研究的主要结论,提出相关的建议,并指出研究的局限性。
Since the 1980s, the authenticity of surplus information based on accrual basis has been gradually received people's questions. While the cash flow information receives an increasing number of attentions because of avoiding the accrual basis's flaw. Through cash flow information, people may get more management information and financial situation. But the executives of listed companies as the agent possibly manipulate the cash flow information based on their own private interest. The cash flow manipulation leads to serious consequences, therefor recognizing the cash flow manipulation, to a certain extent, can eliminate asymmetry of the capital market information, optimize the allocation of resources, reduces the benefit counterparts'harm by the manipulated cash flow information. But how to recognize the cash flow manipulation effectively, is a question which urgently to be solved. This article begins to do some research about the recognition on cash flow manipulation in Chinese listed companies.
In the part of theory, this article firstly introduces the cash flow manipulation's related concepts, carries on the comparative analysis to the cash flow manipulation and the management and the profit manipulation, elaborates the theory foundation; secondly take the recognition of cash flow manipulation as the research's focal point, and carries on system's summaries basing on reading the domestic and foreign massive literature; thirdly according to the practical situation, analyses the manipulation means and recognition methods about cash flow manipulation; finally from the multiple perspectives, constructs the recognition indicator system about cash flow manipulation in Chinese listed companies on the foundation of the above analysis. In the empirical content, this article firstly choses 28 listed companies as the manipulation samples which were publicly punished because of illegal funds from 2005 to 2009; secondly choses 28 listed companies as the control samples according to following three standards:the same profession, the same time and the similar property scale, finally carries on the empirical analysis to cash flow manipulation, and constructs the recognition model of cash flow manipulation.
The result of Logistic regression indicates that there are 8 recognition indicators entering to the recognition model, and these 8 indicators have the significant recognition capability to the cash flow manipulation. They are:operation cash net flow in debt, the ratio of net profit including cash, the ratio of total asset growing, the amount of each operation cash net flow, other receivable in the assets, the ratio of payment to staffs cash, share concentration and non-standard audit opinion, separately represents company's financial situation, profit, development, the cash flow information, the related-party transaction, the employing, the corporate governances structure and the audit opinion.
In the end, this article summarizes the main conclusion, proposes the related suggestion, and points out the research's limitation
在理论部分本文首先界定了现金流量操纵的相关概念,对现金流量操纵与现金流量管理和利润操纵进行比较分析,阐述了现金流量操纵的理论基础；然后以现金流量操纵的识别为研究重点,在阅读国内外大量文献的基础上对其进行了系统的归纳总结；再次结合实际情况,分析了我国上市公司现金流量操纵的手段和识别方法；最后在上述分析的基础上从多角度构建了我国上市公司现金流量操纵识别的指标体系。在实证部分本文首先选取2005年至2009年因资金违规而被公开处罚的28家上市公司的作为研究现金流量操纵的样本,然后根据同行业、同年度和资产规模相近三个标准选择取了28家上市公司作为与之配对的控制样本,最后对我国上市公司现金流量操纵进行实证分析并构建了现金流量操纵的识别模型。
Logistic的回归结果显示,共有8个识别指标进入到识别模型,且这8个指标对现金流量操纵具有显著的识别能力。它们分别是：经营现金净流量债务总额比、净利润含现率、总资产增长率、每股经营现金净流量、其他应收款总资产比、支付给职工的现金比率、股权集中度和非标准无保留意见,分别代表了公司的财务状况、盈利能力、成长能力、现金流量指标、关联交易情况、用工情况、治理结构和审计意见。
本文最后总结研究的主要结论,提出相关的建议,并指出研究的局限性。
Since the 1980s, the authenticity of surplus information based on accrual basis has been gradually received people's questions. While the cash flow information receives an increasing number of attentions because of avoiding the accrual basis's flaw. Through cash flow information, people may get more management information and financial situation. But the executives of listed companies as the agent possibly manipulate the cash flow information based on their own private interest. The cash flow manipulation leads to serious consequences, therefor recognizing the cash flow manipulation, to a certain extent, can eliminate asymmetry of the capital market information, optimize the allocation of resources, reduces the benefit counterparts'harm by the manipulated cash flow information. But how to recognize the cash flow manipulation effectively, is a question which urgently to be solved. This article begins to do some research about the recognition on cash flow manipulation in Chinese listed companies.
In the part of theory, this article firstly introduces the cash flow manipulation's related concepts, carries on the comparative analysis to the cash flow manipulation and the management and the profit manipulation, elaborates the theory foundation; secondly take the recognition of cash flow manipulation as the research's focal point, and carries on system's summaries basing on reading the domestic and foreign massive literature; thirdly according to the practical situation, analyses the manipulation means and recognition methods about cash flow manipulation; finally from the multiple perspectives, constructs the recognition indicator system about cash flow manipulation in Chinese listed companies on the foundation of the above analysis. In the empirical content, this article firstly choses 28 listed companies as the manipulation samples which were publicly punished because of illegal funds from 2005 to 2009; secondly choses 28 listed companies as the control samples according to following three standards:the same profession, the same time and the similar property scale, finally carries on the empirical analysis to cash flow manipulation, and constructs the recognition model of cash flow manipulation.
The result of Logistic regression indicates that there are 8 recognition indicators entering to the recognition model, and these 8 indicators have the significant recognition capability to the cash flow manipulation. They are:operation cash net flow in debt, the ratio of net profit including cash, the ratio of total asset growing, the amount of each operation cash net flow, other receivable in the assets, the ratio of payment to staffs cash, share concentration and non-standard audit opinion, separately represents company's financial situation, profit, development, the cash flow information, the related-party transaction, the employing, the corporate governances structure and the audit opinion.
In the end, this article summarizes the main conclusion, proposes the related suggestion, and points out the research's limitation
引文
[1]Graham JR., Harvey CR and Rajgopal S. The economic implications of corporate financial reporting[J]. Journal of Accounting and Economics.2005 (40) 3-73
[2]Nwaeze ET Yang SM and Yin QJ. Accounting information and CEO compensation:The role of cash flow from operations in the presence of earning[J]. Contemporary Accounting Research.2006 (23) 227-265
[3]邹德琪.现金流量——企业理财的重要信息[J].经济师.2002-8
[4]Reporting(ncffr) NCOFF. Reporting of National Commission on Fraudulent Financial Reporting [J].1987-10
[5]刘洪.中国上市公司业绩操纵研究[D].中国社会科学院.2002.
[6]高素贤.现金流量操纵与管理的比较分析[J].现代商贸工业.2010-7
[7]刘华、孙阿妞.委托代理理论的贡献与缺陷[J].广西财经学院学报.2006-9
[8]Levnat JP Zarowin. The Incremental Information Content of Cash Flow Components. Journal of Accounting and Economics[J].1990(13) 25-46
[9]H.I.Work. J.R.Francis. M.GTeaney 1997 AccountingTheory[J]. pp390-391
[10]CS Agnes Cheng, Chao-Shin Liu and Thomas F Schaefer. The Value Relevance of SFAS NO.95 Cash Flows from manipulations as Assessed by Security Market Effects. Accounting Horizons(September) pp 1-15 Journal of Accounting Research. Vol.34 No.l Spring 1996
[11]陆静,廖刚.上市公司会计盈利、现金流量与股票价格的实证研究[J].经济科学.2002-5
[12]邢鹂.中国上市公司现金流量信息含量的实证研究[J].新疆财经.2001-2
[13]王化成、程小可、刘雪辉.中国资本市场披露现金流量信息的有用性[J].经济理论与经济管理.2003-10
[14]DeFond ML, Hung M. An Empirical Analysis of Analysts'Cash Flow Forecasts[J]. Journal of Accounting and Economics.2003 35 (1) 73-100
[15]Roychowdhury S. Management of Earnings through the Manipulation of Real Activities that Affect Cash Flow from operations. Working paper,MIT[J],2004
[16]Frankel R. Managing reported operating cash flow:an empirical investigation of fourth quarter working capital decreases and benchmark beating. MIT[A].working paper 2005
[17]Weining Zhang. Real Activitives Manipulation to Meet Analysts'Cash Flow Forecasts Working Paper [J] 2008
[18]王啸.现金流量操纵手法案例分析[J].中国注册会计师.2004-7
[19]陈理.上市公司经营性现金流操纵实证研究[J].财经科学.2006-4
[20]吴联生,薄仙慧,王亚平.现金流量在多大程度上被管理了—来自我国上市公司的证据[J].金融研究.2007-3
[21]张然.中国上市公司现金流管理研究—兼对新兴市场和成熟市场现金流管理行为比较研究[J].中国会计评论.2007,5(3)：381-400
[22]Burgstahler D, Dichev I. Earnings management to avoid earnings decreases and losses[J]. Journal of Accounting and Economics.1997, (24):99-126
[23]张启銮.如何识别虚假财务报表[J].财会月刊.2003-5
[24]Dechow P M, Sloan R G, Hutton A P. Causes and Consequences of Earnings Manipulation:An Analysis of Firms Subject to Enforcement Actions by the SEC[J]. Contemporary Accounting Research.1996,13 (1):1-36
[25]Joseph Aharony, Chi Wen Jevons Lee and T J Wong. Financial packaging of IPO Firms in China[J]. Journal of Accounting Research.2008,38
[26]王啸.我国上市公司现金流量操纵现象分析[J].证券市场导报.2004年5月
[27]薛爽,蔡祥,郭虹.上市公司在操纵经营性现金流吗?——基于季度报告的实证分析[J].中国会计与财务研究.2008,(1)：69-99
[28]李志强.现金流量信息含量与操纵[D].中国西南财经大学博士论文.2007-6
[29]李彬,张俊瑞.现金流量管理与实际活动操控关系研究[J].预测.2010-1
[30]杨其雷.我国上市公司会计信息操纵识别研究[D].厦门大学硕士论文.2008-8
[31]方军雄.市场变迁与现金流操纵—一项基于我国上市公司的实证研究[J].中国会计评论.2004-1.
[32]叶志锋,胡玉明,纳超洪.基于银行借款融资动机的现金流量管理研究[J].经济与管理研究.2009-2：30-37
[33]孟艳玲、张俊瑞.上市公司现金流量操纵程度研究—来自中国A股市场的经验证据[J].山西财经大学学报.2010-5：93-100
[34]Rober M Bowen, David Burgstahler and Lane A Daley. Evidence on the Relationships Between Earnings and Various Measures of Cash Flow. The Accounting Review. October 1986 pp713-725
[35]Rober M Bowen, David Burgstahler and Lane A.Daley. The Incremental Information Content of Accrual Versus Cash Flow[J]. The Accounting Review. October 1987 pp723-747
[36]Catherine A Finger. The Ability of Earnings to Predict Future Earnings and CashFlow[J]. Journal ofAccounting Research. Vol.32 No.2 Autumn 1994 pp210-223
[37]Joseph Aharony, Chi Wen Jevons Lee and T J Wong. Financial packaging of IPO Firms in China [J]. Journal of Accounting Research.2008-8
[38]邹燕.我国上市公司现金流量操纵的实证研究[M].山东大学硕士论文.2009-5
[39]饶艳超,胡奕明.银行信贷中会计信息的使用情况调查与分析[J].会计研究.2005,(4),36-41
[40]吴世农,卢贤义.我国上市公司财务困境的预测模型研究[J].经济研究.2001-6
[41]陈凌.我国上市公司财务欺诈识别模型研究[M].中国人民大学硕士论文.2005-5
[42]刘桂珠,张庆昌.我国上市公司现金流量操纵手法面面观[J].商场现代化.2009-8
[43]引自证监会罚[2006]4号
[44]王秀丽.公司操纵现金流量的方法与识别[J].中国审计.2006-9
[45]引自上交所《关于对潍坊北大青鸟华光科技股份有限公司和董事长周燕军等公开谴责的决定》2005年6月1日
[46]引自上交所《关于对三联商社股份有限公司和董事长张继升等公开谴责的决定》2006年8月7日
[47]引自上交所《关于对三联商社股份有限公司和董事长张继升等公开谴责的决定》2006年8月7日
[48]引自深交所《关于对福建闽东电力股份有限公司及相关人员予以公开谴责的公告》2005年3月23日
[49]张娴妮.上市公司利润操纵的识别和治理[J].求实.2008-11
[50]刘妹威.上市公司虚假会计报表识别技术[M].经济科学出版社.2002
[51]Scott L Summers JTS. Fraudulently Misstated Financial [J]. The Accounting Review.1998,73(1):131-146
[52]Loebbecke J, EiningMWJ. Auditor's Experience with Material Irregularities:Frequency Nature and Detectability [J]. Auditing A Journal of Practice.1989, (4):1-28
[53]姜秀华,仁强,孙峥.上市公司财务危机预警模型研究[J].预测.2002-21(3)
[54]阎达五,王建英.上市公司利润操纵行为的财务指标特征研究[J].财务与会计.2001-10
[55]张长海,陈险峰,吴顺祥.舞弊性财务报告识别的实证研究[J].美中经济评论.2005-11
[56]秦江萍.会计舞弊的市场反应与识别：理论分析与经验证据[M].经济科学出版社.2006
[57]刘立国,杜莹.公司治理与会计信息质量关系的实证研究[J].会计研究.2003-2
[58]李维安,王新汉,王威.盈余管理对审计意见的影响[J].财经论丛.2005-1
[2]Nwaeze ET Yang SM and Yin QJ. Accounting information and CEO compensation:The role of cash flow from operations in the presence of earning[J]. Contemporary Accounting Research.2006 (23) 227-265
[3]邹德琪.现金流量——企业理财的重要信息[J].经济师.2002-8
[4]Reporting(ncffr) NCOFF. Reporting of National Commission on Fraudulent Financial Reporting [J].1987-10
[5]刘洪.中国上市公司业绩操纵研究[D].中国社会科学院.2002.
[6]高素贤.现金流量操纵与管理的比较分析[J].现代商贸工业.2010-7
[7]刘华、孙阿妞.委托代理理论的贡献与缺陷[J].广西财经学院学报.2006-9
[8]Levnat JP Zarowin. The Incremental Information Content of Cash Flow Components. Journal of Accounting and Economics[J].1990(13) 25-46
[9]H.I.Work. J.R.Francis. M.GTeaney 1997 AccountingTheory[J]. pp390-391
[10]CS Agnes Cheng, Chao-Shin Liu and Thomas F Schaefer. The Value Relevance of SFAS NO.95 Cash Flows from manipulations as Assessed by Security Market Effects. Accounting Horizons(September) pp 1-15 Journal of Accounting Research. Vol.34 No.l Spring 1996
[11]陆静,廖刚.上市公司会计盈利、现金流量与股票价格的实证研究[J].经济科学.2002-5
[12]邢鹂.中国上市公司现金流量信息含量的实证研究[J].新疆财经.2001-2
[13]王化成、程小可、刘雪辉.中国资本市场披露现金流量信息的有用性[J].经济理论与经济管理.2003-10
[14]DeFond ML, Hung M. An Empirical Analysis of Analysts'Cash Flow Forecasts[J]. Journal of Accounting and Economics.2003 35 (1) 73-100
[15]Roychowdhury S. Management of Earnings through the Manipulation of Real Activities that Affect Cash Flow from operations. Working paper,MIT[J],2004
[16]Frankel R. Managing reported operating cash flow:an empirical investigation of fourth quarter working capital decreases and benchmark beating. MIT[A].working paper 2005
[17]Weining Zhang. Real Activitives Manipulation to Meet Analysts'Cash Flow Forecasts Working Paper [J] 2008
[18]王啸.现金流量操纵手法案例分析[J].中国注册会计师.2004-7
[19]陈理.上市公司经营性现金流操纵实证研究[J].财经科学.2006-4
[20]吴联生,薄仙慧,王亚平.现金流量在多大程度上被管理了—来自我国上市公司的证据[J].金融研究.2007-3
[21]张然.中国上市公司现金流管理研究—兼对新兴市场和成熟市场现金流管理行为比较研究[J].中国会计评论.2007,5(3)：381-400
[22]Burgstahler D, Dichev I. Earnings management to avoid earnings decreases and losses[J]. Journal of Accounting and Economics.1997, (24):99-126
[23]张启銮.如何识别虚假财务报表[J].财会月刊.2003-5
[24]Dechow P M, Sloan R G, Hutton A P. Causes and Consequences of Earnings Manipulation:An Analysis of Firms Subject to Enforcement Actions by the SEC[J]. Contemporary Accounting Research.1996,13 (1):1-36
[25]Joseph Aharony, Chi Wen Jevons Lee and T J Wong. Financial packaging of IPO Firms in China[J]. Journal of Accounting Research.2008,38
[26]王啸.我国上市公司现金流量操纵现象分析[J].证券市场导报.2004年5月
[27]薛爽,蔡祥,郭虹.上市公司在操纵经营性现金流吗?——基于季度报告的实证分析[J].中国会计与财务研究.2008,(1)：69-99
[28]李志强.现金流量信息含量与操纵[D].中国西南财经大学博士论文.2007-6
[29]李彬,张俊瑞.现金流量管理与实际活动操控关系研究[J].预测.2010-1
[30]杨其雷.我国上市公司会计信息操纵识别研究[D].厦门大学硕士论文.2008-8
[31]方军雄.市场变迁与现金流操纵—一项基于我国上市公司的实证研究[J].中国会计评论.2004-1.
[32]叶志锋,胡玉明,纳超洪.基于银行借款融资动机的现金流量管理研究[J].经济与管理研究.2009-2：30-37
[33]孟艳玲、张俊瑞.上市公司现金流量操纵程度研究—来自中国A股市场的经验证据[J].山西财经大学学报.2010-5：93-100
[34]Rober M Bowen, David Burgstahler and Lane A Daley. Evidence on the Relationships Between Earnings and Various Measures of Cash Flow. The Accounting Review. October 1986 pp713-725
[35]Rober M Bowen, David Burgstahler and Lane A.Daley. The Incremental Information Content of Accrual Versus Cash Flow[J]. The Accounting Review. October 1987 pp723-747
[36]Catherine A Finger. The Ability of Earnings to Predict Future Earnings and CashFlow[J]. Journal ofAccounting Research. Vol.32 No.2 Autumn 1994 pp210-223
[37]Joseph Aharony, Chi Wen Jevons Lee and T J Wong. Financial packaging of IPO Firms in China [J]. Journal of Accounting Research.2008-8
[38]邹燕.我国上市公司现金流量操纵的实证研究[M].山东大学硕士论文.2009-5
[39]饶艳超,胡奕明.银行信贷中会计信息的使用情况调查与分析[J].会计研究.2005,(4),36-41
[40]吴世农,卢贤义.我国上市公司财务困境的预测模型研究[J].经济研究.2001-6
[41]陈凌.我国上市公司财务欺诈识别模型研究[M].中国人民大学硕士论文.2005-5
[42]刘桂珠,张庆昌.我国上市公司现金流量操纵手法面面观[J].商场现代化.2009-8
[43]引自证监会罚[2006]4号
[44]王秀丽.公司操纵现金流量的方法与识别[J].中国审计.2006-9
[45]引自上交所《关于对潍坊北大青鸟华光科技股份有限公司和董事长周燕军等公开谴责的决定》2005年6月1日
[46]引自上交所《关于对三联商社股份有限公司和董事长张继升等公开谴责的决定》2006年8月7日
[47]引自上交所《关于对三联商社股份有限公司和董事长张继升等公开谴责的决定》2006年8月7日
[48]引自深交所《关于对福建闽东电力股份有限公司及相关人员予以公开谴责的公告》2005年3月23日
[49]张娴妮.上市公司利润操纵的识别和治理[J].求实.2008-11
[50]刘妹威.上市公司虚假会计报表识别技术[M].经济科学出版社.2002
[51]Scott L Summers JTS. Fraudulently Misstated Financial [J]. The Accounting Review.1998,73(1):131-146
[52]Loebbecke J, EiningMWJ. Auditor's Experience with Material Irregularities:Frequency Nature and Detectability [J]. Auditing A Journal of Practice.1989, (4):1-28
[53]姜秀华,仁强,孙峥.上市公司财务危机预警模型研究[J].预测.2002-21(3)
[54]阎达五,王建英.上市公司利润操纵行为的财务指标特征研究[J].财务与会计.2001-10
[55]张长海,陈险峰,吴顺祥.舞弊性财务报告识别的实证研究[J].美中经济评论.2005-11
[56]秦江萍.会计舞弊的市场反应与识别：理论分析与经验证据[M].经济科学出版社.2006
[57]刘立国,杜莹.公司治理与会计信息质量关系的实证研究[J].会计研究.2003-2
[58]李维安,王新汉,王威.盈余管理对审计意见的影响[J].财经论丛.2005-1