基于供给稳定性及布局的木材流通研究
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摘要
木材流通连接着木材资源的生产和消费,木材资源能否高效、稳定、合理的进入消费领域,满足木材产业发展的需求取决于木材流通。因此研究国内木材流通对解决中国木材产业发展的资源基础和产业调整问题具有非常重要的意义。
本文的研究目的在于构建国内木材流通研究的分析框架,提出研究国内木材流通问题要从木材资源供给稳定性及布局合理的角度进行研究。木材流通涉及面非常广泛,在限定了本文的研究范围后,首先对木材流通所连接的木材资源生产以及木材生产消费进行分析,特别是针对生产和消费的布局进行分析,提出木材供给、木材生产和加工的分布以及木材产业发展水平会影响木材流通的三条假设。第四章在国内原木生产分析的基础上,通过对原木供给关系形成的数学描述,判断原木供给关系稳定的影响因素,然后建立原木产量模型,用计量经济学的方法判断原木产量稳定性的影响因素。第五章从原木进口的角度分析供给来源的稳定,通过稳定性指数测算,分析进口木材来源的稳定性与否,并建立原木进口模型实证分析原木进口量的影响因素。第六章运用线性规划模型优化木材流通布局,规范分析木材流通布局是否合理。第七章从国内木材供给稳定、进口木材来源稳定以及木材流通布局优化的角度提出可付之实施的保障木材流通高效运行的解决方案和政策建议。
研究结果表明,影响国内木材供给稳定性的是森林资源蓄积增长量和限额采伐政策；影响原木进口来源稳定的主要是进口来源国家的政治风险指数、森林资源的开发利用水平以及贸易自由度；合理的、有效率的木材流通应该是木材流入省份的木材需求刚好能够全部满足,木材流出省份的木材流出量刚好等于木材的净供给量；木材流通密集的地区应该有规范化的木材流通市场；产业发展趋势应该向着原料基地的方向发展。最后针对上述结论提出保证木材供给稳定以及木材流通布局优化的政策建议。
本研究的创新点主要有两个：
从研究角度的选择上来看,将西方经济学的流通理论、马克思主义流通理论、现代流通理论以及和流通相关的效率理论、供应链理论,纳入流通研究的框架下,形成流通研究的新角度。基于供给及布局的流通研究这个新角度所研究的木材流通,既可以用来分析资源供给与木材流通的关系,还可以分析木材资源有效供给后对木材产业发展的影响,成为木材产业研究的一个组成部分,填补了现有木材产业研究中关于木材流通研究的空白,为研究木材流通的提供了新的研究角度。
从解决问题的思路上来看,将运筹学中的线性规划引入木材流通布局研究,根据木材生产与消费分布的特点,设计目标函数及假设条件,形成适用于木材流通研究的线性规划模型。运用这种有针对性设计的线性规划模型,规范分析木材流通布局最优化时的木材生产与消费的布局结构,探讨木材流通应该怎样布局,丰富了木材流通研究的方法。
Timber circulation connects the production and consumption of timber resources and whether or not timber resources could enter the market effectively, steadily and reasonably to meet the needs of wood industry development depends on timber circulation. Thus studying domestic timber circulation is of great importance for laying the resource foundation of China's timber industry as well as solving its industrial adjusting problems.
This dissertation aims to establish the analytical framework of the study of domestic timber circulation, coming up with the perspective of the stability of timber supply and timber circulation distribution from which domestic timber circulation efficiency problems should be studied. Timber circulation covers a widespread area, given the research scope; firstly this passage analyzed the production and consumption of timber as they are connected by timber circulation, especially the overall arrangement of them, putting forward three assumptions that timber supply, the distribution of timber production and processing and development level of timber industry will affect timber circulation. Secondly, the fourth chapter mathematically described the formation of log supply relationship based on the analysis of domestic log production, determined the factors affecting log supply stable relationship,then established timber yield model to find out factors of log yield stability with econometric methods. Chapter five analyzed the stability of supply sources from the point of timber import, and by means of calculating the stability index this study analyzed whether the sources of timber import are stable, hence the international import trade model of timber is established to empirically analyze the factors affecting the stability of timber import sources. Chapter six used a linear programming model to optimize the layout of timber circulation, normatively analyzed the rationality of timber circulation. Chapter seven studied the related policies considering the stability of domestic timber production and timber foreign import sources together with the optimization of timber circulation distribution. Following the above study feasible solutions and policy suggestions are raised to improve the efficiency of timber circulation. The result of this dissertation indicates that the factors that influence the stability of domestic timber supply are the accumulation growth of forestry resources and the quota policy concerning timber logging. And two decisive factors influencing timber import consist in the political risk index, the development and utilization level of forestry resources and trade freedom of import source countries. Rational and effective timber circulation is supposed to lead to the fact that the need for timber of inflow provinces will all be met and the outflow volume of outflow provinces is the equivalent of its net timber supply. There should be a standard timber circulation market for areas with extensive timber circulation or high circulation volume. The industrial developing trend should be toward the direction of raw material base. In the end this passage came up with several suggestions to guarantee the stability of timber supply and optimize the layout of timber circulation in view of the above conclusion.
This dissertation has two major innovative points:
From the choice of research perspective, this dissertation study unified the relation theory, big circulation theory and efficiency theory of western orthodox mainstream economics under the framework of timber circulation efficiency forming the theoretical system of timber circulation efficiency. This theoretical system can be used to analyze both the relationship between resources supply and timber circulation and the impact on the development of forestry industry after effective timber supply thus making up part of forestry industry research.
From the thinking of problem solving, this dissertation introduced linear programming of operational research into the research field of timber circulation efficiency. Via thorough normative analysis of the optimization of timber circulation distribution, this study probed the layout structure of timber production and consumption when the circulation of timber is the most efficient and therefore enriched the research method of timber circulation efficiency.
本文的研究目的在于构建国内木材流通研究的分析框架,提出研究国内木材流通问题要从木材资源供给稳定性及布局合理的角度进行研究。木材流通涉及面非常广泛,在限定了本文的研究范围后,首先对木材流通所连接的木材资源生产以及木材生产消费进行分析,特别是针对生产和消费的布局进行分析,提出木材供给、木材生产和加工的分布以及木材产业发展水平会影响木材流通的三条假设。第四章在国内原木生产分析的基础上,通过对原木供给关系形成的数学描述,判断原木供给关系稳定的影响因素,然后建立原木产量模型,用计量经济学的方法判断原木产量稳定性的影响因素。第五章从原木进口的角度分析供给来源的稳定,通过稳定性指数测算,分析进口木材来源的稳定性与否,并建立原木进口模型实证分析原木进口量的影响因素。第六章运用线性规划模型优化木材流通布局,规范分析木材流通布局是否合理。第七章从国内木材供给稳定、进口木材来源稳定以及木材流通布局优化的角度提出可付之实施的保障木材流通高效运行的解决方案和政策建议。
研究结果表明,影响国内木材供给稳定性的是森林资源蓄积增长量和限额采伐政策；影响原木进口来源稳定的主要是进口来源国家的政治风险指数、森林资源的开发利用水平以及贸易自由度；合理的、有效率的木材流通应该是木材流入省份的木材需求刚好能够全部满足,木材流出省份的木材流出量刚好等于木材的净供给量；木材流通密集的地区应该有规范化的木材流通市场；产业发展趋势应该向着原料基地的方向发展。最后针对上述结论提出保证木材供给稳定以及木材流通布局优化的政策建议。
本研究的创新点主要有两个：
从研究角度的选择上来看,将西方经济学的流通理论、马克思主义流通理论、现代流通理论以及和流通相关的效率理论、供应链理论,纳入流通研究的框架下,形成流通研究的新角度。基于供给及布局的流通研究这个新角度所研究的木材流通,既可以用来分析资源供给与木材流通的关系,还可以分析木材资源有效供给后对木材产业发展的影响,成为木材产业研究的一个组成部分,填补了现有木材产业研究中关于木材流通研究的空白,为研究木材流通的提供了新的研究角度。
从解决问题的思路上来看,将运筹学中的线性规划引入木材流通布局研究,根据木材生产与消费分布的特点,设计目标函数及假设条件,形成适用于木材流通研究的线性规划模型。运用这种有针对性设计的线性规划模型,规范分析木材流通布局最优化时的木材生产与消费的布局结构,探讨木材流通应该怎样布局,丰富了木材流通研究的方法。
Timber circulation connects the production and consumption of timber resources and whether or not timber resources could enter the market effectively, steadily and reasonably to meet the needs of wood industry development depends on timber circulation. Thus studying domestic timber circulation is of great importance for laying the resource foundation of China's timber industry as well as solving its industrial adjusting problems.
This dissertation aims to establish the analytical framework of the study of domestic timber circulation, coming up with the perspective of the stability of timber supply and timber circulation distribution from which domestic timber circulation efficiency problems should be studied. Timber circulation covers a widespread area, given the research scope; firstly this passage analyzed the production and consumption of timber as they are connected by timber circulation, especially the overall arrangement of them, putting forward three assumptions that timber supply, the distribution of timber production and processing and development level of timber industry will affect timber circulation. Secondly, the fourth chapter mathematically described the formation of log supply relationship based on the analysis of domestic log production, determined the factors affecting log supply stable relationship,then established timber yield model to find out factors of log yield stability with econometric methods. Chapter five analyzed the stability of supply sources from the point of timber import, and by means of calculating the stability index this study analyzed whether the sources of timber import are stable, hence the international import trade model of timber is established to empirically analyze the factors affecting the stability of timber import sources. Chapter six used a linear programming model to optimize the layout of timber circulation, normatively analyzed the rationality of timber circulation. Chapter seven studied the related policies considering the stability of domestic timber production and timber foreign import sources together with the optimization of timber circulation distribution. Following the above study feasible solutions and policy suggestions are raised to improve the efficiency of timber circulation. The result of this dissertation indicates that the factors that influence the stability of domestic timber supply are the accumulation growth of forestry resources and the quota policy concerning timber logging. And two decisive factors influencing timber import consist in the political risk index, the development and utilization level of forestry resources and trade freedom of import source countries. Rational and effective timber circulation is supposed to lead to the fact that the need for timber of inflow provinces will all be met and the outflow volume of outflow provinces is the equivalent of its net timber supply. There should be a standard timber circulation market for areas with extensive timber circulation or high circulation volume. The industrial developing trend should be toward the direction of raw material base. In the end this passage came up with several suggestions to guarantee the stability of timber supply and optimize the layout of timber circulation in view of the above conclusion.
This dissertation has two major innovative points:
From the choice of research perspective, this dissertation study unified the relation theory, big circulation theory and efficiency theory of western orthodox mainstream economics under the framework of timber circulation efficiency forming the theoretical system of timber circulation efficiency. This theoretical system can be used to analyze both the relationship between resources supply and timber circulation and the impact on the development of forestry industry after effective timber supply thus making up part of forestry industry research.
From the thinking of problem solving, this dissertation introduced linear programming of operational research into the research field of timber circulation efficiency. Via thorough normative analysis of the optimization of timber circulation distribution, this study probed the layout structure of timber production and consumption when the circulation of timber is the most efficient and therefore enriched the research method of timber circulation efficiency.
引文
1 2010年10月18日一致通过了《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十二个五年规划的建议》
2 2014年3月5日李克强总理在十二届全国人大二次会议所做的《政府工作报告》
3 2011年10月25日商务部、财政部和中国人民银行联合发布《关于“十二五”时期做好扩大消费工作的意见》
4 2010年4月13日商务部下发了《关于完善生产资料流通体系的意见》
5 2011年1月国家林业局国际贸易研究中心召开年会,并下发了《林业对外贸易政策体系要就(征求意见稿)》
6 马克思：《资本论》,第1卷,131页,北京,人民出版社,1975
7 《马克思恩格斯全集》,中文1版,第46卷(下),28页,北京,人民出版社,1980
8 《马克思恩格斯全集》,中文1版,第26卷,364页,北京,人民出版社,1972
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2 2014年3月5日李克强总理在十二届全国人大二次会议所做的《政府工作报告》
3 2011年10月25日商务部、财政部和中国人民银行联合发布《关于“十二五”时期做好扩大消费工作的意见》
4 2010年4月13日商务部下发了《关于完善生产资料流通体系的意见》
5 2011年1月国家林业局国际贸易研究中心召开年会,并下发了《林业对外贸易政策体系要就(征求意见稿)》
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