考虑震后应急物资保障阶段性特征的选址—联运问题研究
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摘要
近年来,全球地震灾害频发,给人类造成了巨大危害和损失。而应急物资保障作为震后救援工作的关键,需要在有限时间、空间和资源约束下快速满足应急物资需求,以实现灾害损失最小化。其核心是如何科学合理地布局应急物资配送中心、安排多种运输方式进行应急物资联运,而且这两个问题之间具有紧密联系,有必要进行集成优化管理。
首先,震后应急救援活动是个动态更新的过程,具有明显的阶段性特征。鉴于此,为提高震后应急物资保障的效率,本文首先通过对震后应急物资保障阶段性特征进行分析,将震后应急物资保障过程分为震后初期、紧急救援期、应急恢复期三个阶段,并将震后应急物资保障中的三个阶段与一般物流系统做对比,提炼出各阶段不同于一般物流的特征,把握其中的主要问题和需要考虑的关键因素。
其次,将震后应急物资配送中三个阶段实际救援过程中的特点和现象进行数学抽象,用合适的参数、变量和表达式予以刻画和表述,分别对三个阶段进行数学建模,具体如下：
(1)震后初期阶段,主要考虑多物资集散点供应量不同；多受灾点需求量不同；多品种救灾物资紧迫性程度不同；路网部分中断,多运输方式运输能力不同；通信中断,物资集散点通过预测需求对受灾点采取主动配送,即供方主导性；物资供不应求等特点,建立一个上层以物资运送时间最短为目标,下层以物资分配公平性最大为目标的震后初期应急物资配送中的选址—联运双层规划模型。
(2)震后紧急救援期,考虑多物资集散点供应量不断变化；多受灾点需求量不断变化；多品种救灾物资紧迫性程度不同；路网逐渐修复,多运输方式运输能力不同；通信设备基本恢复,物资集散点通过下级物资需求上报情况进行被动配送,即拉式配送；物资供不应求显现仍然突出；时间窗限制；当决策方案不再适应不断变化的救灾任务时,采取实时优化、动态决策,逐渐开放应急物资配送中心,以此满足不断加重的救灾任务需求。建立了一个上层以受灾点需求应急物资时间满意度最大,下层为物资分配公平性最大的震后紧急救援期应急物资配送中的选址—联运双层规划模型。
(3)震后应急恢复期,除考虑多物资集散点,多受灾点,多品种救灾物资,多运输方式之外,该阶段路网完全恢复,信息完全通畅,物资供应及物资需求定期更新,物资需求基本得到满足,物资集散点根据受灾点的需求量进行按需配送,即拉式配送,该阶段时间跨度大,规划时程长,适合采取多周期动态决策。基于此,建立了一个以总费用最小的震后应急恢复期应急物资配送中的多周期动态选址—联运模型。
再者,针对上述三个模型的特点,分别设计了基于不同启发式规则的混合遗传算法进行求解,每个阶段模型不同,目标和约束条件也不一样,因此编码设计也不同,根据不同的编码设计不同的解码方式,有效地处理了主从目标决策、动态实时决策、多周期决策、运输能力限制约束、应急物资配送中心吞吐量限制约束、受灾点最低满足率约束、时间窗约束、应急物资配送中心允许开放最大数量约束等一系列。
最后,以汶川大地震应急物资保障各阶段为背景构造算例,分别对震后初期、紧急救援期、应急恢复期的模型和算法进行验证,并对模型中主要参数进行灵敏度分析,结果表明算法具有较好的性能,可以有效解决震后应急物资保障阶段性的选址—联运问题。
本文建立了强健的震后应急物资配送体系以及灵活的应急反应机制,为震后应急物资保障提供辅助性决策支持,并对震后应急管理中急需解决的实际问题提供科学的理论、方法和工具。
In recent years, the global earthquake happened frequently, causing great damage and loss. As a key step of post-earthquake emergency logistics system, relief distribution must meet the logistics needs as soon as possible, under constraints of time, space and resources in order to minimize losses. How to locate the temporary transfer facilities and schedule multi-mode transportation are key problems in optimizing the emergency logistics system. The relationship between them is complex and controversial, so it is necessary to optimize and manage them together. By considering the relationships between location-allocation problem of emergency relief distribution centers and joint transportation problem of relief materials, Combined Location-Transportation Problem(CLTP) in post-earthquake relief distribution was investigated from the perspective of system optimization.
Firstly, post-earthquake rescue activities are dynamic and real-time update process with obvious stage characteristics. Therefore, in order to improve the efficiency of relief distribution, this thesis analyzed the stage characteristics of post-earthquake relief distribution and divided it into three stages, i.e. initial stage, emergency rescue stage and emergency recovery stage.Then compared the three stages of emergency rescue with common logistics systems, got the features of the stages, held the main problem and the key factors.
Secondly, the phenomenon and trait of the three stages of the emergency rescue were abstracted as mathematical symbols, and three models based on emergency supplies phases after earthquake were builded in proper parameters, variables and expressions, as follows:
(1) In the initial stage after earthquake, the collection centers as the supply nodes supply different relief materials, the effective nodes as the demand nodes need different relief materials, different relief materials own different urgency, road network is interrupted, the transport capacity of each mode of transportation is different, communication equipment is demaged,'pull'distribution mode, relief materials shortage, etc. A bilevel programming model was proposed to describe the combined location-transportation problem in the initial stage of post-earthquake, which the upper objective is minimizing the delivery time, and the lower objective is maximizing the equity and fairness.
(2) In the emergency rescue stage, the supply of the distribution centers are constantly changing, the need of each effective node is also changing, different relief materials own different urgency, road network is gradually repaired, the transport capacity of each mode of transportation is different, the equipment of communicaition basically returns to normal,'pull' distribution mode, the relief materials are still short, time windows restrictions. When the decision before was not fit for the present missions, it is need to be re-optimized and open the distribution centers gradually, only in this way, more and more work can be managed efficiently. So a bilevel programming model was proposed to describe the combined location-transportation problem in the emergency rescue stage of post-earthquake, which the upper objective is maximizing the time-satisfaction, and the lower objective is maximizing the equity and fairness.
(3) In the emergency recovery stage, expect the multi-modes of transportation, multi-kinds of relief materials and so on, the road net work and the communications equipment is back to normal completely, the demand can be meet, collection centers supply the materials on demand, the time is not pressing in this stage, the multi-period dynamic-decision making was considered because of the long time span of this stage. A multi-period dynamic-decision making model was proposed to describe the combined location-transportation problem in the emergency recovery stage of post-earthquake, which objective is minimizing the total cost.
Thirdly, hybrid genetic algorithms combined with different heuristic rules were proposed based on the characteristics of each model. A serious of problems just as objectives and restrictions was resolved well, like two level object decision making problem with leader and follower, dynamical decision, multi-period dynamic-decision, the restriction of the transportation capacity, the throughput, time windows, the minimum satisfied percentage, the maximum quantity of distribution centers and so on.
Finally, the validity of the model and algorithm were demonstrated by a numerical example based on the relief distribution process after Wenchuan earthquake. The results show that the proposed genetic algorithm has good performance and is effective for resolving the CLTP in relief distribution.
The thesis set up powerful distribution system of emergency supplies and flexible contingency reaction mechanism based on the post-earthquake, gave auxiliary decision support to the guarantee of relief materials and provided the practical problem that urged to be settled after the emergency with scientific theory, method and tools.
首先,震后应急救援活动是个动态更新的过程,具有明显的阶段性特征。鉴于此,为提高震后应急物资保障的效率,本文首先通过对震后应急物资保障阶段性特征进行分析,将震后应急物资保障过程分为震后初期、紧急救援期、应急恢复期三个阶段,并将震后应急物资保障中的三个阶段与一般物流系统做对比,提炼出各阶段不同于一般物流的特征,把握其中的主要问题和需要考虑的关键因素。
其次,将震后应急物资配送中三个阶段实际救援过程中的特点和现象进行数学抽象,用合适的参数、变量和表达式予以刻画和表述,分别对三个阶段进行数学建模,具体如下：
(1)震后初期阶段,主要考虑多物资集散点供应量不同；多受灾点需求量不同；多品种救灾物资紧迫性程度不同；路网部分中断,多运输方式运输能力不同；通信中断,物资集散点通过预测需求对受灾点采取主动配送,即供方主导性；物资供不应求等特点,建立一个上层以物资运送时间最短为目标,下层以物资分配公平性最大为目标的震后初期应急物资配送中的选址—联运双层规划模型。
(2)震后紧急救援期,考虑多物资集散点供应量不断变化；多受灾点需求量不断变化；多品种救灾物资紧迫性程度不同；路网逐渐修复,多运输方式运输能力不同；通信设备基本恢复,物资集散点通过下级物资需求上报情况进行被动配送,即拉式配送；物资供不应求显现仍然突出；时间窗限制；当决策方案不再适应不断变化的救灾任务时,采取实时优化、动态决策,逐渐开放应急物资配送中心,以此满足不断加重的救灾任务需求。建立了一个上层以受灾点需求应急物资时间满意度最大,下层为物资分配公平性最大的震后紧急救援期应急物资配送中的选址—联运双层规划模型。
(3)震后应急恢复期,除考虑多物资集散点,多受灾点,多品种救灾物资,多运输方式之外,该阶段路网完全恢复,信息完全通畅,物资供应及物资需求定期更新,物资需求基本得到满足,物资集散点根据受灾点的需求量进行按需配送,即拉式配送,该阶段时间跨度大,规划时程长,适合采取多周期动态决策。基于此,建立了一个以总费用最小的震后应急恢复期应急物资配送中的多周期动态选址—联运模型。
再者,针对上述三个模型的特点,分别设计了基于不同启发式规则的混合遗传算法进行求解,每个阶段模型不同,目标和约束条件也不一样,因此编码设计也不同,根据不同的编码设计不同的解码方式,有效地处理了主从目标决策、动态实时决策、多周期决策、运输能力限制约束、应急物资配送中心吞吐量限制约束、受灾点最低满足率约束、时间窗约束、应急物资配送中心允许开放最大数量约束等一系列。
最后,以汶川大地震应急物资保障各阶段为背景构造算例,分别对震后初期、紧急救援期、应急恢复期的模型和算法进行验证,并对模型中主要参数进行灵敏度分析,结果表明算法具有较好的性能,可以有效解决震后应急物资保障阶段性的选址—联运问题。
本文建立了强健的震后应急物资配送体系以及灵活的应急反应机制,为震后应急物资保障提供辅助性决策支持,并对震后应急管理中急需解决的实际问题提供科学的理论、方法和工具。
In recent years, the global earthquake happened frequently, causing great damage and loss. As a key step of post-earthquake emergency logistics system, relief distribution must meet the logistics needs as soon as possible, under constraints of time, space and resources in order to minimize losses. How to locate the temporary transfer facilities and schedule multi-mode transportation are key problems in optimizing the emergency logistics system. The relationship between them is complex and controversial, so it is necessary to optimize and manage them together. By considering the relationships between location-allocation problem of emergency relief distribution centers and joint transportation problem of relief materials, Combined Location-Transportation Problem(CLTP) in post-earthquake relief distribution was investigated from the perspective of system optimization.
Firstly, post-earthquake rescue activities are dynamic and real-time update process with obvious stage characteristics. Therefore, in order to improve the efficiency of relief distribution, this thesis analyzed the stage characteristics of post-earthquake relief distribution and divided it into three stages, i.e. initial stage, emergency rescue stage and emergency recovery stage.Then compared the three stages of emergency rescue with common logistics systems, got the features of the stages, held the main problem and the key factors.
Secondly, the phenomenon and trait of the three stages of the emergency rescue were abstracted as mathematical symbols, and three models based on emergency supplies phases after earthquake were builded in proper parameters, variables and expressions, as follows:
(1) In the initial stage after earthquake, the collection centers as the supply nodes supply different relief materials, the effective nodes as the demand nodes need different relief materials, different relief materials own different urgency, road network is interrupted, the transport capacity of each mode of transportation is different, communication equipment is demaged,'pull'distribution mode, relief materials shortage, etc. A bilevel programming model was proposed to describe the combined location-transportation problem in the initial stage of post-earthquake, which the upper objective is minimizing the delivery time, and the lower objective is maximizing the equity and fairness.
(2) In the emergency rescue stage, the supply of the distribution centers are constantly changing, the need of each effective node is also changing, different relief materials own different urgency, road network is gradually repaired, the transport capacity of each mode of transportation is different, the equipment of communicaition basically returns to normal,'pull' distribution mode, the relief materials are still short, time windows restrictions. When the decision before was not fit for the present missions, it is need to be re-optimized and open the distribution centers gradually, only in this way, more and more work can be managed efficiently. So a bilevel programming model was proposed to describe the combined location-transportation problem in the emergency rescue stage of post-earthquake, which the upper objective is maximizing the time-satisfaction, and the lower objective is maximizing the equity and fairness.
(3) In the emergency recovery stage, expect the multi-modes of transportation, multi-kinds of relief materials and so on, the road net work and the communications equipment is back to normal completely, the demand can be meet, collection centers supply the materials on demand, the time is not pressing in this stage, the multi-period dynamic-decision making was considered because of the long time span of this stage. A multi-period dynamic-decision making model was proposed to describe the combined location-transportation problem in the emergency recovery stage of post-earthquake, which objective is minimizing the total cost.
Thirdly, hybrid genetic algorithms combined with different heuristic rules were proposed based on the characteristics of each model. A serious of problems just as objectives and restrictions was resolved well, like two level object decision making problem with leader and follower, dynamical decision, multi-period dynamic-decision, the restriction of the transportation capacity, the throughput, time windows, the minimum satisfied percentage, the maximum quantity of distribution centers and so on.
Finally, the validity of the model and algorithm were demonstrated by a numerical example based on the relief distribution process after Wenchuan earthquake. The results show that the proposed genetic algorithm has good performance and is effective for resolving the CLTP in relief distribution.
The thesis set up powerful distribution system of emergency supplies and flexible contingency reaction mechanism based on the post-earthquake, gave auxiliary decision support to the guarantee of relief materials and provided the practical problem that urged to be settled after the emergency with scientific theory, method and tools.
引文
5 罗尔斯(Rawls, J.)著.何怀宏等译.正义论.北京：中国社会科学出版社,2001.6.罗尔斯对正义的两个原则做出了完整的表述(第46节)：正义的第一个原则：每个人都应有平等的权利去享有与人人享有的类似的自由权体系相一致的最广泛的、平等的基本自由权总体系。正义的第二个原则：社会和经济不平等的安排应能使它们(1)符合地位最不利的人的最大利益,符合正义的储蓄原则,以及(2)在公平的机会均等的条件下与向所有人开放的官职和职务联系起来。第一条优先规则(自由权优先)：正义原则应按照词汇序列来安排,因此自由权只有为了自由权本身才能受到限制。这里有两种情况：(1)不太广泛的自由权应能使人人享有的自由权总体系得到加强；(2)不太平等的自由权必须是具有较少自由权的那些人能够接受的。第二条优先原则(正义优先于效率和福利)：正义的第二个原则在词汇序列上优先于效率原则和最大限度提高利益总量的原则；而公平机会优先于差别原则。这里有两种情况：(1)机会的不平等必须扩大具有较少机会的那些人的机会；(2)过高的储蓄率在总体上能减轻为此而受苦的人的负担。
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