海外矿产资源项目投资风险评估与实物期权研究
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摘要
我国“走出去”的资源战略意义重大。但是，海外矿产资源项目投资风险巨大，各种纷繁复杂的风险因素导致中国企业海外矿产资源项目投资亏损和失败比例很高。研究发现，避免或降低资源投资项目的风险，必须对于目标项目进行科学、社会和技术的综合评价，必须学习和消化发达国家有益的经验和教训。论文依据作者参与的海外资源开发项目的投资决策过程，研究中国企业在海外矿产资源项目投资中风险的评估控制方面，如何选择最重要的和最实际的分析要素组合问题，具有重要的研究意义和应用价值。论文取得了以下主要研究成果和认识：
(1)国外矿业公司成功经验分析显示，慎重选择投资区位是风险控制与管理的最关键要素。通过对全球领先大型矿业公司的海外矿产资源项目风险控制与管理的成功经验的分析和研究，提出了中国企业开展海外矿产资源项目投资风险控制与管理的建议。
(2)论证了慎重选择海外矿产资源项目投资所在区位是降低和控制海外矿业投资项目风险的关键因素。本文以镍资源项目为例，从全球镍资源的分布情况、全球镍资源的控制情况、全球镍资源勘探项目的分布情况、以及矿业投资环境四个角度对海外矿产资源项目投资的区位选择进行分析和研究。
(3)在本企业投资铜矿项目风险评估的实践中，建立了以区位选择为基础的风险评估指标体系。通过对海外矿业投资项目风险管理评估指标体系的研究，采用层次分析法与综合设计法，结合海外矿产资源项目投资的工作实践，从企业风险评估和控制具体操作的角度，构建了海外矿业投资项目风险管理评估指标体系，八类指标是资源风险、技术风险、建设条件风险、社区及公共关系风险、经济风险、法律政策风险、国家信用风险、商业信用风险，并应用该指标体系对海外矿业投资项目铜矿项目C进行了全面的风险评估。
(4)应用实物期权的理论和方法，对本企业矿业投资项目进行了定量化的风险评估。本文借鉴了金融领域实物期权理论的理念和思路，通过对矿业投资项目实物期权价值影响因素的分析，构建和推导出了矿业投资项目的实物期权价值评估模型，并应用该评估模型作为风险评估工具，对海外矿业投资项目铜矿项目C的风险价值进行了进一步的评估。
The complicated risk factors in overseas mineral resources project investmentresulted in the very high ratio of losses and failure in mineral resources projectsinvested by Chinese companies.Strengthening the risk evaluation in overseas mineralresources project investment, identifying and assessing various kinds of risk factors inoverseas mineral resources project investment, and taking effective measures torespond and control risk impact is crucial to ensure assets security and investmentreturns of overseas mineral resources projects. In this dissertation, the main researchresults as follows:
From the perspective of Benchmarking Management, by analyzing investmentcases of overseas mineral resources projects in global leading large mining companiesand studying successful experience of risk control and risk management of globalleading large mining companies, this paper put forward proposals about risk controland risk management of overseas mineral resources projects invested by Chinesecompanies.
The careful choice of locations of overseas mineral resources projects is the keyfactor in risk control and risk management of overseas mineral resources projects.Taking nickel resources project as an example, from the global distribution of nickelresources, the control of nickel resources, the distribution of nickel resourcesexploration projects around the world, and the mining investment environment, thispaper analyzed and studied the choice of locations of overseas mineral resourcesprojects.
On the basis of studying design methods, building methods, and constructionprinciple, using analytic hierarchy process and comprehensive design methods, fromthe perspective of concrete operation in risk assessment and risk control by companies,this paper constructed the indicator system of risk assessment in overseas mineralresources projects, and applyed the indicator system to carry on the comprehensiverisk assessment on copper project c.
According to the characteristics of mineral resources investment projects, this paper defined the concept, the connotation, types and characteristics of real option ofmineral resources investment projects. On the basis of studying appraising methods ofreal option, by analyzing influence factors of real option value of mineral resourcesinvestment projects, this paper constructed and deduced the real option valueevaluation model of mineral resources investment projects, and applied the model toevaluate the risk value of copper project c.
This study improved the traditional methods of risk assessment and risk valueevaluation in overseas mineral resources projects investment, provided a newperspective and method， and can provide some reference and help for Chinesecompanies in overseas mineral resources projects investment.
(1)国外矿业公司成功经验分析显示，慎重选择投资区位是风险控制与管理的最关键要素。通过对全球领先大型矿业公司的海外矿产资源项目风险控制与管理的成功经验的分析和研究，提出了中国企业开展海外矿产资源项目投资风险控制与管理的建议。
(2)论证了慎重选择海外矿产资源项目投资所在区位是降低和控制海外矿业投资项目风险的关键因素。本文以镍资源项目为例，从全球镍资源的分布情况、全球镍资源的控制情况、全球镍资源勘探项目的分布情况、以及矿业投资环境四个角度对海外矿产资源项目投资的区位选择进行分析和研究。
(3)在本企业投资铜矿项目风险评估的实践中，建立了以区位选择为基础的风险评估指标体系。通过对海外矿业投资项目风险管理评估指标体系的研究，采用层次分析法与综合设计法，结合海外矿产资源项目投资的工作实践，从企业风险评估和控制具体操作的角度，构建了海外矿业投资项目风险管理评估指标体系，八类指标是资源风险、技术风险、建设条件风险、社区及公共关系风险、经济风险、法律政策风险、国家信用风险、商业信用风险，并应用该指标体系对海外矿业投资项目铜矿项目C进行了全面的风险评估。
(4)应用实物期权的理论和方法，对本企业矿业投资项目进行了定量化的风险评估。本文借鉴了金融领域实物期权理论的理念和思路，通过对矿业投资项目实物期权价值影响因素的分析，构建和推导出了矿业投资项目的实物期权价值评估模型，并应用该评估模型作为风险评估工具，对海外矿业投资项目铜矿项目C的风险价值进行了进一步的评估。
The complicated risk factors in overseas mineral resources project investmentresulted in the very high ratio of losses and failure in mineral resources projectsinvested by Chinese companies.Strengthening the risk evaluation in overseas mineralresources project investment, identifying and assessing various kinds of risk factors inoverseas mineral resources project investment, and taking effective measures torespond and control risk impact is crucial to ensure assets security and investmentreturns of overseas mineral resources projects. In this dissertation, the main researchresults as follows:
From the perspective of Benchmarking Management, by analyzing investmentcases of overseas mineral resources projects in global leading large mining companiesand studying successful experience of risk control and risk management of globalleading large mining companies, this paper put forward proposals about risk controland risk management of overseas mineral resources projects invested by Chinesecompanies.
The careful choice of locations of overseas mineral resources projects is the keyfactor in risk control and risk management of overseas mineral resources projects.Taking nickel resources project as an example, from the global distribution of nickelresources, the control of nickel resources, the distribution of nickel resourcesexploration projects around the world, and the mining investment environment, thispaper analyzed and studied the choice of locations of overseas mineral resourcesprojects.
On the basis of studying design methods, building methods, and constructionprinciple, using analytic hierarchy process and comprehensive design methods, fromthe perspective of concrete operation in risk assessment and risk control by companies,this paper constructed the indicator system of risk assessment in overseas mineralresources projects, and applyed the indicator system to carry on the comprehensiverisk assessment on copper project c.
According to the characteristics of mineral resources investment projects, this paper defined the concept, the connotation, types and characteristics of real option ofmineral resources investment projects. On the basis of studying appraising methods ofreal option, by analyzing influence factors of real option value of mineral resourcesinvestment projects, this paper constructed and deduced the real option valueevaluation model of mineral resources investment projects, and applied the model toevaluate the risk value of copper project c.
This study improved the traditional methods of risk assessment and risk valueevaluation in overseas mineral resources projects investment, provided a newperspective and method， and can provide some reference and help for Chinesecompanies in overseas mineral resources projects investment.
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