铁路应急管理中的预案管理与资源配置优化
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摘要
铁路突发事件的频繁发生使铁路突发事件应急管理逐渐引起了铁路相关管理部门和社会的关注,同时也暴露出了铁路应急管理在应急体系建设和实施方面存在着许多薄弱环节。完善有效的铁路应急管理体系是铁路运输安全的必然要求。本文从铁路应急管理体系的角度出发,围绕铁路应急管理体系框架及框架中直接影响铁路应急救援效率的铁路应急预案和铁路应急资源两方面进行研究。主要内容有：
首先,构建了铁路应急管理体系框架。总结和提炼了铁路突发事件和铁路突发事件应急管理的概念和特点,归纳出铁路突发事件的诱因主要在人为、环境、设备和管理四个因素,提出了铁路突发事件的分级分类风险矩阵表,分析了现有铁路应急管理中存在的主要问题,构建了结合宏观、中观和微观三个层次与铁路应急管理法制、铁路应急管理体制、铁路应急管理机制、铁路应急预案和应急管理保障体系五个层面铁路应急管理体系框架。该体系框架从不同角度指导、规范了铁路应急管理的减缓、准备、响应和恢复四个过程。同时详细介绍了已在铁道部和路局部署使用的铁路应急管理信息系统。
其次,研究了铁路应急预案管理中的基本理论。分析了针对铁路应急预案管理的现状和存在的问题,定义了铁路应急预案和铁路应急预案管理的概念,提出了铁路应急预案分级分类体系,建立了三级管理机构(铁道部、铁路局、站段)、预案类别(综合预案、专项预案、部门预案)与预案覆盖突发事件类别(自然灾害、事故灾难、公共卫生事件、社会安全)三者之间的关系；提出了铁路应急预案全生命周期管理的概念和模式,给出了全生命周期管理流程图,细化了铁路应急预案的编制、审批、演练和修订流程,完善和规范了铁路应急预案管理的标准和步骤；针对铁路应急预案的内容和编制规范,提出了从形式和要素两方面来进行铁路应急预案评价的方法；给出了铁路应急预案管理系统的具体实现。
再次,提出铁路应急服务设施点选址优化方法。定义了区间数、风险函数的概念,研究了铁路应急管理中的单个应急服务设施点选址、多个应急服务设施点选址和应急服务设施点择优选址,根据不同的目标建立了相应的数学模型,分别采用绝对中心点法和遗传算法进行模型求解,给出了铁路应急服务设施点选址算例,仿真结果证明了算法的有效性。
第四,研究了铁路应急资源的动静态配置模型和方法。针对突发事件类型的不确定和所需应急资源数量不确定的特点,在满足铁路应急资源经济配置的条件下应急资源减少的损失量最大化为目标,建立了基于效用函数的铁路应急资源静态配置模型,采用Monte Carlo方法求解；在满足铁路应急资源动态公平分配的要求下,建立了基于非合作博弈理论的铁路应急资源动态配置模型,并采用Nash均衡进行求解。
第五,分别从单应急点单资源、单应急点多资源和多应急点多资源三个层面研究了铁路应急资源调度的方法。建立了应急资源非恒定速率消耗条件下,应急开始时间最早、应急服务设施点数目最少的双层优化数学模型,采用遍历搜索策略对调度模型进行求解；建立了单应急点多资源的应急资源调度多目标优化模型,采用理想点法求解该模型；通过定义不同铁路应急资源的效用函数,并以总效用最大为优化目标,以调度的铁路应急资源满足应急需求为约束条件,建立多应急点多资源条件下的铁路应急资源调度模型并求解。为不同情况下的铁路应急资源调度提供了切实可行的理论指导,具有现实意义。
最后结合文中提出的理论和方法给出了青藏铁路应急救援指挥系统,详细介绍了其系统框架和功能,该系统为铁路应急资源配置优化提供了一整套解决方案。
Railway emergency management has been given wide attention because of frequent railway emergencies, which imply that there are many weaknesses in the construction of the emergency management system and its implementation. Perfect and effective railway emergency management system is the inevitable requirement for rail transport safety. This paper studied the framework of railway emergency management system and the railway emergency plan and emergency resource which impact the efficiency of the railway emergency rescue directly. The main contents are concluded as follows:
(1) Construction the framework of railway emergency management system. The term "railway emergency" and "railway emergency management" are defined and analyzed. Railway incidents are motivated by the four factors of human, environmental, equipment, and management, based on which a hierarchical classification risk matrix of railway emergency was put forward. According to the situation, a framework of railway emergency management system was built, which combined macro-middle-micro-scale levels and five aspects of law, system, mechanism, plans, and security system.
(2) Relative theories of railway emergency plan. The definition of "railway emergency plan" and "railway emergency plan management" were given. Based on the situation and existing problems in railway emergency plans management, its grade and classification system was advanced, building the relationship among three-level management organization (Ministry of Railways, railway bureau, station and depot), plan type (comprehensive plans, special plans, department plans) and emergency type (natural disasters, accident disaster, public health, social security). Then the concept and model of lifecycle management of railway emergency plan was brought forward and its flow chart was depicted. And the process of drawing out, examination and approval, drilling and exercise, and revision in railway emergency plan are elaborated, All of this made the standards and steps of railway emergency plan management perfect and normative. Finally, the evaluate methods were proposed from form and elements of plan.
(3) Railway emergency service facilities location optimization based on interval numbers. Considering the distance between emergency points as interval numbers, the paper built three models of single-point, multi-point and preferred location using minimum risk path. Absolute central point and genetic algorithm were adopted to resolve these problems and examples were presented which indicated the models and algorithms validate
(4) Static and dynamic optimization allocation of railway emergency resource. Considering the uncertainty of emergency type and emergency resource demand, taking the maximum of loss reduction as a target, a static allocation model based on utility function was modeled and solved by Monte Carlo. On command of dynamic and fare distribution, a dynamic allocation model based on non-cooperative game theory was built and solved using Nash Equilibrium method.
(5) Scheduling method of railway emergency resource. The scheduling models of single-point single-resource, single-point multi-resource and multi-point multi-resource were built, which considering different constraint condition and goals, and solved in different methods.
(6) Combined with the theories and methods proposed in the paper, the emergency rescue command system for Qinghai-Tibet railway was developed. Its framework and functions were elaborated. The system provided a set of solutions for the railway emergency resource allocation optimation.
首先,构建了铁路应急管理体系框架。总结和提炼了铁路突发事件和铁路突发事件应急管理的概念和特点,归纳出铁路突发事件的诱因主要在人为、环境、设备和管理四个因素,提出了铁路突发事件的分级分类风险矩阵表,分析了现有铁路应急管理中存在的主要问题,构建了结合宏观、中观和微观三个层次与铁路应急管理法制、铁路应急管理体制、铁路应急管理机制、铁路应急预案和应急管理保障体系五个层面铁路应急管理体系框架。该体系框架从不同角度指导、规范了铁路应急管理的减缓、准备、响应和恢复四个过程。同时详细介绍了已在铁道部和路局部署使用的铁路应急管理信息系统。
其次,研究了铁路应急预案管理中的基本理论。分析了针对铁路应急预案管理的现状和存在的问题,定义了铁路应急预案和铁路应急预案管理的概念,提出了铁路应急预案分级分类体系,建立了三级管理机构(铁道部、铁路局、站段)、预案类别(综合预案、专项预案、部门预案)与预案覆盖突发事件类别(自然灾害、事故灾难、公共卫生事件、社会安全)三者之间的关系；提出了铁路应急预案全生命周期管理的概念和模式,给出了全生命周期管理流程图,细化了铁路应急预案的编制、审批、演练和修订流程,完善和规范了铁路应急预案管理的标准和步骤；针对铁路应急预案的内容和编制规范,提出了从形式和要素两方面来进行铁路应急预案评价的方法；给出了铁路应急预案管理系统的具体实现。
再次,提出铁路应急服务设施点选址优化方法。定义了区间数、风险函数的概念,研究了铁路应急管理中的单个应急服务设施点选址、多个应急服务设施点选址和应急服务设施点择优选址,根据不同的目标建立了相应的数学模型,分别采用绝对中心点法和遗传算法进行模型求解,给出了铁路应急服务设施点选址算例,仿真结果证明了算法的有效性。
第四,研究了铁路应急资源的动静态配置模型和方法。针对突发事件类型的不确定和所需应急资源数量不确定的特点,在满足铁路应急资源经济配置的条件下应急资源减少的损失量最大化为目标,建立了基于效用函数的铁路应急资源静态配置模型,采用Monte Carlo方法求解；在满足铁路应急资源动态公平分配的要求下,建立了基于非合作博弈理论的铁路应急资源动态配置模型,并采用Nash均衡进行求解。
第五,分别从单应急点单资源、单应急点多资源和多应急点多资源三个层面研究了铁路应急资源调度的方法。建立了应急资源非恒定速率消耗条件下,应急开始时间最早、应急服务设施点数目最少的双层优化数学模型,采用遍历搜索策略对调度模型进行求解；建立了单应急点多资源的应急资源调度多目标优化模型,采用理想点法求解该模型；通过定义不同铁路应急资源的效用函数,并以总效用最大为优化目标,以调度的铁路应急资源满足应急需求为约束条件,建立多应急点多资源条件下的铁路应急资源调度模型并求解。为不同情况下的铁路应急资源调度提供了切实可行的理论指导,具有现实意义。
最后结合文中提出的理论和方法给出了青藏铁路应急救援指挥系统,详细介绍了其系统框架和功能,该系统为铁路应急资源配置优化提供了一整套解决方案。
Railway emergency management has been given wide attention because of frequent railway emergencies, which imply that there are many weaknesses in the construction of the emergency management system and its implementation. Perfect and effective railway emergency management system is the inevitable requirement for rail transport safety. This paper studied the framework of railway emergency management system and the railway emergency plan and emergency resource which impact the efficiency of the railway emergency rescue directly. The main contents are concluded as follows:
(1) Construction the framework of railway emergency management system. The term "railway emergency" and "railway emergency management" are defined and analyzed. Railway incidents are motivated by the four factors of human, environmental, equipment, and management, based on which a hierarchical classification risk matrix of railway emergency was put forward. According to the situation, a framework of railway emergency management system was built, which combined macro-middle-micro-scale levels and five aspects of law, system, mechanism, plans, and security system.
(2) Relative theories of railway emergency plan. The definition of "railway emergency plan" and "railway emergency plan management" were given. Based on the situation and existing problems in railway emergency plans management, its grade and classification system was advanced, building the relationship among three-level management organization (Ministry of Railways, railway bureau, station and depot), plan type (comprehensive plans, special plans, department plans) and emergency type (natural disasters, accident disaster, public health, social security). Then the concept and model of lifecycle management of railway emergency plan was brought forward and its flow chart was depicted. And the process of drawing out, examination and approval, drilling and exercise, and revision in railway emergency plan are elaborated, All of this made the standards and steps of railway emergency plan management perfect and normative. Finally, the evaluate methods were proposed from form and elements of plan.
(3) Railway emergency service facilities location optimization based on interval numbers. Considering the distance between emergency points as interval numbers, the paper built three models of single-point, multi-point and preferred location using minimum risk path. Absolute central point and genetic algorithm were adopted to resolve these problems and examples were presented which indicated the models and algorithms validate
(4) Static and dynamic optimization allocation of railway emergency resource. Considering the uncertainty of emergency type and emergency resource demand, taking the maximum of loss reduction as a target, a static allocation model based on utility function was modeled and solved by Monte Carlo. On command of dynamic and fare distribution, a dynamic allocation model based on non-cooperative game theory was built and solved using Nash Equilibrium method.
(5) Scheduling method of railway emergency resource. The scheduling models of single-point single-resource, single-point multi-resource and multi-point multi-resource were built, which considering different constraint condition and goals, and solved in different methods.
(6) Combined with the theories and methods proposed in the paper, the emergency rescue command system for Qinghai-Tibet railway was developed. Its framework and functions were elaborated. The system provided a set of solutions for the railway emergency resource allocation optimation.
引文
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