中国煤电产业链的周期波动传递及电煤价格扭曲
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摘要
2008年一月中旬开始的南方雨雪冰冻天气让我国电力需求再度吃紧。由于冰冻,煤炭运输中断,灾区煤炭存量不足,发电设备无法正常运作,加上由于冰雪覆盖压垮了输电网络,导致电网的中断,给人民生产生活带来了极大损害,造成了严重的经济损失。2008年底开始席卷全球的金融危机对我国电力和煤炭的需求造成了较大的影响,使得保持较长时间上升趋势的需求量有了显著下降。从电力煤炭产业链的紧密程度来看,这两次自然灾害和经济危机再次提醒我们审视目前电力和煤炭等能源的安全问题,进而再一次提示我们要注意煤炭和电力对国家经济整体形势和居民的正常生活的重要性。
我国目前所面临的能源问题与西方工业国家在上世纪60年代与70年代有相似之处。当前能源政策的重要目标是要在保证能源供给安全的基础上,有效地改善能源结构。我国的能源供需与能源价格体系面临种种矛盾：能源供给的安全性与日益增大的环境压力；资源进口大国与缺失国际资源价格话语权;煤价的市场化与电价的强管制；能源价格扭曲与能源利用效率低下等。以上诸多矛盾的存在,为本文的研究提供了背景。我国能源禀赋“多煤、少油、缺气”的特点,使得我国一次能源结构中煤炭的消费比例远高于世界平均水平,环境压力与日俱增。
中国是当今世界第二大能源的生产国和消费国。能源的供应保持持续增长,为经济社会发展提供了重要的保障。能源消费的迅速增长以及全球化的不断深化,使得世界能源市场的发展具备了更广阔的空间。当今,随着中国经济实力的不断增强,在世界能源市场上,中国的话语权也在逐步增大,在维护全球能源安全方面,中国的作用日益显见。
能源需求是作为迅速发展的中国遇到的最大的问题。而其中问题的核心就是电力需求和电煤的需求。本文将注意力集中在周期波动对煤电产业链的传导和实证分析上。
首先,本文分析了煤电需求分析的理论背景与现实背景,即对学界相关的文献进行综述评价,对中国宏观经济周期波动、中国电力行业需求结构、中国电煤需求结构分别进行了分析。在讨论电力产业时,则从数据出发,从电力产业的整体情况入手,着重分析火电的特性、供需特点和我国电力改革的历程,为深入分析电力需求做好周全的准备。在讨论电煤需求结构时,从煤炭产业的整体情况入手,通过列举了大量的数据,分析了煤炭资源的基础性地位、煤炭产业组织状况和产业政策演变的过程,进而分析了电煤的产业特征与电煤价格体制。
其次,在进行电力需求函数建模之前,本文首先考察了全社会电力需求、三大产业电力需求以及居民用电需求的周期波动特征,结合电力需求与经济周期的关系,讨论电力需求与经济周期的一致性；进一步分析了电力需求结构、影响电力需求的因素和电力需求波动的情况。在上述基础上,笔者根据改革开放以来,尤其是1985年至今20多年的电力需求形势,区别于以往国内外对能源消费的研究,采用动态经济计量学协整理论及误差修正模型(ECM)对第一、二、三产业的电力需求函数进行了建模,并在一定范围内进行了预测,并且利用ECM的Granger因果关系来检验产业增加值的增长与电力需求之间因果关系的方向,实证结果表明：短期内电力需求增长是产业增加值增长的Granger因果关系,但不存在产业增加值增长到电力需求增长的Granger因果关系,为中国目前存在的经济现象提供了合理的解释；短期内,重工业尤其是高耗能产业的发展是影响电力需求的重要因素,长期来看,产业结构的调整给电力需求带来的冲击更为巨大。人口众多仍然是导致中国电力高需求的重要因素。而电价正如一般如预期,对电力需求产生效应,但是实证结果证明在短期内电价对于电力需求的影响并不大。
随后,本文对煤电产业链的供给面进行分析,尤其对其它文献较少提及的煤炭运输、煤炭进出口和电力投资等三个对煤电产业链有较大影响的方面进行讨论,得到了作为研究煤电产业链效率的外生变量。
然后,本文通过分析电煤价格扭曲的现状,将焦点转移到电煤产业链效率的讨论。讨论基于引致需求的基本理论,构建电煤价格扭曲模型。由此,提出从根据电力需求量和调节电煤价格来控制电煤需求控制的可能性。
文章最后提出了为预防未来的电力短缺,应建立电力早期预警系统：采用分时电价的方法；调整产业结构,特别是工业产品内部结构,促进经济增长方式由粗放型向集约型转变,以提高经济增长质量和效益,从GDP增长转向“经济结构调整”与平衡发展；从电力和电煤产业长期发展来看,节能将是国民经济发展的一项战略方针。
The snowstorm and icy weather that hit southern China from mid-January of2008posed serious threat to the national power supply. Coal transportation halted and the low coal reserve of the area affected the operation of the generators. The power grid collapsed due to excessive snow coverage, which disrupted people's daily life and caused serious economic loss. Also the Financial Crisis caused the depression of power and coal industrial. Despite its unpredictable nature and economic crisis, the disaster, in terms of the industrial chain of electricity and coal, made us to look at the safety of energy supply and their importance to economy and life.
The energy problem China is facing now is similar to that of the western countries in the60's and70's. Our aim is to effectively improve the structure of energy under the condition that the safety of energy supplies is ensured. The current energy demand and supply and pricing system face all sorts of conflicts:the safety of energy supply versus environmental pollution:China as major energy import country versus her weak position in international energy pricing; the market price of coal versus the planned price of electricity; the abnormality of energy price versus the poor efficiency of energy usage. The above-mentioned conflicts serve as the background of this dissertation. China's "bountiful coal, lack of oil and of gas" decides that the consumption of coal is far above the world average. The threat to environment is increasing.
China is the second largest country of energy production and consumption. The rising energy supply backs up the economic and social development. The soaring energy consumption creates great potential for world energy market. China is becoming an inseparable part of world energy market and is playing a more and more active role to maintain the safety of world energy.
Energy demand is the greatest problem for a far growing China. The core issue lies in the demand of electricity and coal. This dissertation focuses on the derivation and empirical analysis of the function of electricity demand and coal demand.
Firstly, this dissertation analyzes the coal industry and the electricity industry, which are the context of electricity and coal demand. When discussing the features of coal industry, it starts from the overall situation of coal industry and analyzes the fundamental situation of coal reservoir, the structure of coal industry and the evolution of industrial policies with a large amount of figures, and then go further to the features of coal industry and its pricing system. When talking about electricity industry, it focuses on analyzing the features of electricity generated by coal, of its supply and demand and the history of reform on power supply. This paved way for further discussing electricity.
Secondly, before modeling the electricity demand function, this dissertation analyzes its structure, the working factors and the fluctuation of the demand.
Referring to the power demand after Opening-up, especially in the twenty years after1985, the writer adopts Cointegration and ECM to model the electricity demand function of the first, second and tertiary industry and proposes his prediction within certain area. He also uses Granger of ECM to verify the causal relation between the increase of industrial development and electricity demand. The result shows:the increase of demand within a short period is the Granger cause of increase of industrial development, but not the other way around, which explains the current economic issues of China.
In the short term, the development of heavy industry is an important factor to influence the electricity demand. In the long term, the structural adjustment of industry has a strong impact on demand. The huge population of china is always a standing factor. As expected, the electricity price influences the power demand, but only within a short period of time.
What's more, this dissertation analyzes the household electricity demand. The result shows that the short-term income elasticity of the household electricity consumption is higher than the statistics of foreign countries, while the long-term income elasticity is lower. Compared with statistics of developed countries, the price elasticity of household electricity consumption is lower.
The following discussion of the dissertation concentrates on the coal demand function by analyzing the abnormality of coal price. It talks about basic theory of derive demand, builds up coal demand function and gets working factors, such as power demand and coal price. It is possible to control the coal demand by adjusting the coal price according to the electricity demand.
At the end, this dissertation proposes to set up an early warning system against future power shortage. In the short term, time-sharing pricing is a way to adjust industrial structure, especially the inner structure of industrial products. It can accelerate the transformation from extensive economy to intensive economy, promote the change from the GDP growth to re-structuring of economy and balanced development, and as well enhance the quality of economic growth. In the long term, energy saving is a strategic policy of national economic development.
我国目前所面临的能源问题与西方工业国家在上世纪60年代与70年代有相似之处。当前能源政策的重要目标是要在保证能源供给安全的基础上,有效地改善能源结构。我国的能源供需与能源价格体系面临种种矛盾：能源供给的安全性与日益增大的环境压力；资源进口大国与缺失国际资源价格话语权;煤价的市场化与电价的强管制；能源价格扭曲与能源利用效率低下等。以上诸多矛盾的存在,为本文的研究提供了背景。我国能源禀赋“多煤、少油、缺气”的特点,使得我国一次能源结构中煤炭的消费比例远高于世界平均水平,环境压力与日俱增。
中国是当今世界第二大能源的生产国和消费国。能源的供应保持持续增长,为经济社会发展提供了重要的保障。能源消费的迅速增长以及全球化的不断深化,使得世界能源市场的发展具备了更广阔的空间。当今,随着中国经济实力的不断增强,在世界能源市场上,中国的话语权也在逐步增大,在维护全球能源安全方面,中国的作用日益显见。
能源需求是作为迅速发展的中国遇到的最大的问题。而其中问题的核心就是电力需求和电煤的需求。本文将注意力集中在周期波动对煤电产业链的传导和实证分析上。
首先,本文分析了煤电需求分析的理论背景与现实背景,即对学界相关的文献进行综述评价,对中国宏观经济周期波动、中国电力行业需求结构、中国电煤需求结构分别进行了分析。在讨论电力产业时,则从数据出发,从电力产业的整体情况入手,着重分析火电的特性、供需特点和我国电力改革的历程,为深入分析电力需求做好周全的准备。在讨论电煤需求结构时,从煤炭产业的整体情况入手,通过列举了大量的数据,分析了煤炭资源的基础性地位、煤炭产业组织状况和产业政策演变的过程,进而分析了电煤的产业特征与电煤价格体制。
其次,在进行电力需求函数建模之前,本文首先考察了全社会电力需求、三大产业电力需求以及居民用电需求的周期波动特征,结合电力需求与经济周期的关系,讨论电力需求与经济周期的一致性；进一步分析了电力需求结构、影响电力需求的因素和电力需求波动的情况。在上述基础上,笔者根据改革开放以来,尤其是1985年至今20多年的电力需求形势,区别于以往国内外对能源消费的研究,采用动态经济计量学协整理论及误差修正模型(ECM)对第一、二、三产业的电力需求函数进行了建模,并在一定范围内进行了预测,并且利用ECM的Granger因果关系来检验产业增加值的增长与电力需求之间因果关系的方向,实证结果表明：短期内电力需求增长是产业增加值增长的Granger因果关系,但不存在产业增加值增长到电力需求增长的Granger因果关系,为中国目前存在的经济现象提供了合理的解释；短期内,重工业尤其是高耗能产业的发展是影响电力需求的重要因素,长期来看,产业结构的调整给电力需求带来的冲击更为巨大。人口众多仍然是导致中国电力高需求的重要因素。而电价正如一般如预期,对电力需求产生效应,但是实证结果证明在短期内电价对于电力需求的影响并不大。
随后,本文对煤电产业链的供给面进行分析,尤其对其它文献较少提及的煤炭运输、煤炭进出口和电力投资等三个对煤电产业链有较大影响的方面进行讨论,得到了作为研究煤电产业链效率的外生变量。
然后,本文通过分析电煤价格扭曲的现状,将焦点转移到电煤产业链效率的讨论。讨论基于引致需求的基本理论,构建电煤价格扭曲模型。由此,提出从根据电力需求量和调节电煤价格来控制电煤需求控制的可能性。
文章最后提出了为预防未来的电力短缺,应建立电力早期预警系统：采用分时电价的方法；调整产业结构,特别是工业产品内部结构,促进经济增长方式由粗放型向集约型转变,以提高经济增长质量和效益,从GDP增长转向“经济结构调整”与平衡发展；从电力和电煤产业长期发展来看,节能将是国民经济发展的一项战略方针。
The snowstorm and icy weather that hit southern China from mid-January of2008posed serious threat to the national power supply. Coal transportation halted and the low coal reserve of the area affected the operation of the generators. The power grid collapsed due to excessive snow coverage, which disrupted people's daily life and caused serious economic loss. Also the Financial Crisis caused the depression of power and coal industrial. Despite its unpredictable nature and economic crisis, the disaster, in terms of the industrial chain of electricity and coal, made us to look at the safety of energy supply and their importance to economy and life.
The energy problem China is facing now is similar to that of the western countries in the60's and70's. Our aim is to effectively improve the structure of energy under the condition that the safety of energy supplies is ensured. The current energy demand and supply and pricing system face all sorts of conflicts:the safety of energy supply versus environmental pollution:China as major energy import country versus her weak position in international energy pricing; the market price of coal versus the planned price of electricity; the abnormality of energy price versus the poor efficiency of energy usage. The above-mentioned conflicts serve as the background of this dissertation. China's "bountiful coal, lack of oil and of gas" decides that the consumption of coal is far above the world average. The threat to environment is increasing.
China is the second largest country of energy production and consumption. The rising energy supply backs up the economic and social development. The soaring energy consumption creates great potential for world energy market. China is becoming an inseparable part of world energy market and is playing a more and more active role to maintain the safety of world energy.
Energy demand is the greatest problem for a far growing China. The core issue lies in the demand of electricity and coal. This dissertation focuses on the derivation and empirical analysis of the function of electricity demand and coal demand.
Firstly, this dissertation analyzes the coal industry and the electricity industry, which are the context of electricity and coal demand. When discussing the features of coal industry, it starts from the overall situation of coal industry and analyzes the fundamental situation of coal reservoir, the structure of coal industry and the evolution of industrial policies with a large amount of figures, and then go further to the features of coal industry and its pricing system. When talking about electricity industry, it focuses on analyzing the features of electricity generated by coal, of its supply and demand and the history of reform on power supply. This paved way for further discussing electricity.
Secondly, before modeling the electricity demand function, this dissertation analyzes its structure, the working factors and the fluctuation of the demand.
Referring to the power demand after Opening-up, especially in the twenty years after1985, the writer adopts Cointegration and ECM to model the electricity demand function of the first, second and tertiary industry and proposes his prediction within certain area. He also uses Granger of ECM to verify the causal relation between the increase of industrial development and electricity demand. The result shows:the increase of demand within a short period is the Granger cause of increase of industrial development, but not the other way around, which explains the current economic issues of China.
In the short term, the development of heavy industry is an important factor to influence the electricity demand. In the long term, the structural adjustment of industry has a strong impact on demand. The huge population of china is always a standing factor. As expected, the electricity price influences the power demand, but only within a short period of time.
What's more, this dissertation analyzes the household electricity demand. The result shows that the short-term income elasticity of the household electricity consumption is higher than the statistics of foreign countries, while the long-term income elasticity is lower. Compared with statistics of developed countries, the price elasticity of household electricity consumption is lower.
The following discussion of the dissertation concentrates on the coal demand function by analyzing the abnormality of coal price. It talks about basic theory of derive demand, builds up coal demand function and gets working factors, such as power demand and coal price. It is possible to control the coal demand by adjusting the coal price according to the electricity demand.
At the end, this dissertation proposes to set up an early warning system against future power shortage. In the short term, time-sharing pricing is a way to adjust industrial structure, especially the inner structure of industrial products. It can accelerate the transformation from extensive economy to intensive economy, promote the change from the GDP growth to re-structuring of economy and balanced development, and as well enhance the quality of economic growth. In the long term, energy saving is a strategic policy of national economic development.
引文
1马凯,我国当前的能源形势与“十一五”能源发展,《价格理论与实践》,2006
2马凯,我国当前的能源形势与“十一五”能源发展,《价格理论与实践》,2006
3《中华人民共和国国民经济和社会发展第十一个五年规划纲要》,2006年3月14日第十届全国人民代表大会第四次会议批准
4国务院决定成立煤电汕运和抢险抗灾应急指挥中心,http://society.people.com.cn/GB/41158/6852963.html,2008年2月1口
5中国国务院新闻办公室,《中国的能源状况与政策》白皮书,2007.12
6 Martin(2002)中译本第6页。
7伊特韦尔等[编].新帕尔格雷夫经济学大辞典.第一卷
12郭云涛.中国煤炭中长期供需分析与预测.中国煤炭.2004年10月.
13孙媛,《中国电煤可应用基准价格研究》,复旦大学博士学位论文,P44
14国家物价局.《生产资料价格双轨制问题研究》(1991年内部资料).第49-50页.
15潘伟尔.《加速煤炭价格机制市场化改革的基本思路》.《中国能源》2005年第1期.
16周小兵.我国煤价与电价的比价关系研究.华中科技大学.2005年11月.
17梁亚丽,中国电力需求波动特征及其影响因素研究,2005
18梁亚丽,中国电力需求波动特征及其影响因素研究,2005
19梁亚丽,中国电力需求波动特征及其影响因素研究,2005
20由于数据可获得性的问题,部分月份数据缺失。
21中国出口汽车的数量在其总产量中只占据很小比重,因此可以忽略不计。
22数据来源：国家统计局,中国统计年鉴2010。
23武晓明,中国煤炭政策变迁与煤炭需求1979-2008,西安科技大学学报,2008年
24孙媛,《中国电煤可应用基准价格研究》,复旦大学博士学位论文,P44
25中电联,《电网指挥部抢修简报(五)》,2008
26根据贝恩的市场绱构分类指标,当产出集中度cr4小于30%,或cr8小于40%时,产业就属于竞争型。中国煤炭产业的这两个指标尽管有了大幅度的提高,但比标准值至少低15%。
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4国务院决定成立煤电汕运和抢险抗灾应急指挥中心,http://society.people.com.cn/GB/41158/6852963.html,2008年2月1口
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6 Martin(2002)中译本第6页。
7伊特韦尔等[编].新帕尔格雷夫经济学大辞典.第一卷
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19梁亚丽,中国电力需求波动特征及其影响因素研究,2005
20由于数据可获得性的问题,部分月份数据缺失。
21中国出口汽车的数量在其总产量中只占据很小比重,因此可以忽略不计。
22数据来源：国家统计局,中国统计年鉴2010。
23武晓明,中国煤炭政策变迁与煤炭需求1979-2008,西安科技大学学报,2008年
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