日资对中国产业结构演进作用研究
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摘要
长期以来,外资对产业结构演进的影响一直是我国学术界研究的重点问题之一,但关注点始终局限于把外商直接投资看成一个整体来研究。本文选择国别研究作为新视角,分析和探讨日本对华直接投资对中国产业结构演进的影响,将研究细化到国家(地区)之间的经济关系中,由理论到实证,首先通过理论分析日资对中国产业结构产生了哪些影响,日资对中国产业结构演进产生影响的原因,以及日资对中国产业结构产生影响的传导机制；然后,采用面板数据分析法和时间序列分析法,以及宏观经济学中的经济增长理论,就日资对中国产业间结构的影响及制造业内结构的影响进行实证检验。
本文以外资对东道国产业结构影响的一般理论为基础,通过对近年来国内外现有文献的梳理和分析,并在理解外资和产业结构等相关基本概念及外资对产业结构影响的因素后,围绕以下几个方面对日资对中国产业结构演进的影响展开讨论。
首先,以历史发展的视角回顾了日资对中国产业结构产生影响的演进历程。改革开放以来,日本对华直接投资,从无到有,从小规模试探性投资和对日借款发展到成为中国主要的外资来源地之一；从向经济特区投资扩展到向沿海开放城市投资；从以资源寻求为目的的投资转变成以市场寻求为目的的投资,在日本对外直接投资战略不断变化的背景下,逐渐的在改变对华直接投资的数量、区位和方式,同时也影响着中国产业结构的演进。
其次,从中国产业对日资的依存性、日资对中国产业的控制力两个角度,分析日资对中国产业结构演进产生影响的原因,中国产业结构演进受日资影响的主要原因在于中国产业资本、技术和出口对日资的依存性,同时日资对中国产业的控制力也是不可忽视的原因之一。
再次,从资源补缺效应、产业关联效应、产业示范效应和就业创造效应四个角度分析日本对华直接投资变化对中国产业结构演进的传导机制,分析日资对中国产业结构演进影响的途径和传导方式。
最后,通过面板数据分析方法和时间序列分析方法分别对日资对中国产业间结构的影响和日资对中国制造业内的影响进行分析,通过实证研究的方法来阐释日资对中国产业结构演进产生的影响。
通过实证研究,本文得出如下结论：第一,日本对华直接投资对第二产业产值增加的效用最为明显,日资的增加促进了第二产业产值的增加,而对第一产业基本没有任何影响,对第三产业仅有部分的影响；第二,日本对华直接投资对制造业内部多个产业产值的增加存在正效应,而主要是通过对运输机械器具产业、纤维产业以及化工和医药产业的投资而引起制造业产值的增加。
The influence of foreign direct investment to the China's induatrial structure is a key problem which is concerned by economists all over the world in a long period. But the perspective is still limited to the foreign direct investment as an entirety. In this paper, choosing the country studies to be a new perspective to analyse the influence of the change in Japan's foreign direct investment to the evolution of China's industrial structure in order to make the analysis perspective to the economic relationship between countries. From theory to practice, first of all, analyze which are the infulencs of Japan's foreign direct investment on China's industrial structure; why dose the Japan's foreign direct investment influence the China's industrial structure; how dose the Japan's foreign direct investment influence the China's industrial structure. Then using panel data and time series method and the theory of economic growth in modern macroeconomics to analyis and explain the influence of Japan's foreign foreign direct investment on China's inter-industrial structure between first, second, third industry and the intra-industrial structure in manufacturing industry.
This paper based on the general theories of the influences of forign direct investment on the industrial structure of host countries; and analyze and screen the recent literature in our country and abroad; and comprehend the impotrant concepts of foreign direct investment and industrial structure and the fctors of forign direct investment on the industrial structure of host countries. Then discuss the infulencs of Japan's foreign direct investment on China's industrial structure below:
First of all, review the change of Japan's foreign direct invesmrnt to China and the evolution of China's industrial structure in history perspective. Since the reform and opening up, the amounts of the foreign direct investment from Japan to China, from the tentative investment in small size and foreign loans develope to the main countries of foreign direct investment to China; the areas expand from the economic zones to costal op (?)cities; the purposes transfer from the resouses-seeking investment to the market.-seeking investment. With the changing strategies of Japan's foreign direct investment, the investment to China is changing in quantites, areas and manners, and influencing China's industrial structures as well.
Second, analyze the reasons why Japan's foreign direct investment on China's industrial structure in two perspectives:the dependence of China's indystrial structure to Japan's foreign direct investment and the controllings of Japan's foreign direct investment to China's industrial structure. The main reason of the influence of Japan's foreign direct investment to China's industrial structure are the dependences of China's industrial capital, technologies and exports to Japan's foreign direct investment. And the controllings of Japan's foreign direct investment to China's industrial structure is also one of important reasons which can not be ignored.
Third, analyse the transmission mechanism of the influence of the change in Japan's foreign direct investment to the evolution of China's industrial structure in four aspects inorder to analyze the approaches and transmission ways of the influence of foreign direct investment to the China's induatrial structure.
Fourth, achieving the conclusion that the influence of Japan's foreign foreign direct investment on China's inter-industrial structure between first, second, third industry and the intra-industrial structure in manufacturing industry with the panel data and time series in order to explain the influence of foreign direct investment to the China's induatrial structure.
The conclusion is:First, the influence of Japan's foreign direct investment to Chian's the second industry is the most obvious, the increase of the Japan's investment leads to the growth of the output in the second industry in China, and there is almost no influence in the first industry, and there is some influence in the third industry. Second, the influence of Japan's foreign direct investment in manufactoring and the major industry includes tansport equipment industry, textile industry, chemical and medical industry.
本文以外资对东道国产业结构影响的一般理论为基础,通过对近年来国内外现有文献的梳理和分析,并在理解外资和产业结构等相关基本概念及外资对产业结构影响的因素后,围绕以下几个方面对日资对中国产业结构演进的影响展开讨论。
首先,以历史发展的视角回顾了日资对中国产业结构产生影响的演进历程。改革开放以来,日本对华直接投资,从无到有,从小规模试探性投资和对日借款发展到成为中国主要的外资来源地之一；从向经济特区投资扩展到向沿海开放城市投资；从以资源寻求为目的的投资转变成以市场寻求为目的的投资,在日本对外直接投资战略不断变化的背景下,逐渐的在改变对华直接投资的数量、区位和方式,同时也影响着中国产业结构的演进。
其次,从中国产业对日资的依存性、日资对中国产业的控制力两个角度,分析日资对中国产业结构演进产生影响的原因,中国产业结构演进受日资影响的主要原因在于中国产业资本、技术和出口对日资的依存性,同时日资对中国产业的控制力也是不可忽视的原因之一。
再次,从资源补缺效应、产业关联效应、产业示范效应和就业创造效应四个角度分析日本对华直接投资变化对中国产业结构演进的传导机制,分析日资对中国产业结构演进影响的途径和传导方式。
最后,通过面板数据分析方法和时间序列分析方法分别对日资对中国产业间结构的影响和日资对中国制造业内的影响进行分析,通过实证研究的方法来阐释日资对中国产业结构演进产生的影响。
通过实证研究,本文得出如下结论：第一,日本对华直接投资对第二产业产值增加的效用最为明显,日资的增加促进了第二产业产值的增加,而对第一产业基本没有任何影响,对第三产业仅有部分的影响；第二,日本对华直接投资对制造业内部多个产业产值的增加存在正效应,而主要是通过对运输机械器具产业、纤维产业以及化工和医药产业的投资而引起制造业产值的增加。
The influence of foreign direct investment to the China's induatrial structure is a key problem which is concerned by economists all over the world in a long period. But the perspective is still limited to the foreign direct investment as an entirety. In this paper, choosing the country studies to be a new perspective to analyse the influence of the change in Japan's foreign direct investment to the evolution of China's industrial structure in order to make the analysis perspective to the economic relationship between countries. From theory to practice, first of all, analyze which are the infulencs of Japan's foreign direct investment on China's industrial structure; why dose the Japan's foreign direct investment influence the China's industrial structure; how dose the Japan's foreign direct investment influence the China's industrial structure. Then using panel data and time series method and the theory of economic growth in modern macroeconomics to analyis and explain the influence of Japan's foreign foreign direct investment on China's inter-industrial structure between first, second, third industry and the intra-industrial structure in manufacturing industry.
This paper based on the general theories of the influences of forign direct investment on the industrial structure of host countries; and analyze and screen the recent literature in our country and abroad; and comprehend the impotrant concepts of foreign direct investment and industrial structure and the fctors of forign direct investment on the industrial structure of host countries. Then discuss the infulencs of Japan's foreign direct investment on China's industrial structure below:
First of all, review the change of Japan's foreign direct invesmrnt to China and the evolution of China's industrial structure in history perspective. Since the reform and opening up, the amounts of the foreign direct investment from Japan to China, from the tentative investment in small size and foreign loans develope to the main countries of foreign direct investment to China; the areas expand from the economic zones to costal op (?)cities; the purposes transfer from the resouses-seeking investment to the market.-seeking investment. With the changing strategies of Japan's foreign direct investment, the investment to China is changing in quantites, areas and manners, and influencing China's industrial structures as well.
Second, analyze the reasons why Japan's foreign direct investment on China's industrial structure in two perspectives:the dependence of China's indystrial structure to Japan's foreign direct investment and the controllings of Japan's foreign direct investment to China's industrial structure. The main reason of the influence of Japan's foreign direct investment to China's industrial structure are the dependences of China's industrial capital, technologies and exports to Japan's foreign direct investment. And the controllings of Japan's foreign direct investment to China's industrial structure is also one of important reasons which can not be ignored.
Third, analyse the transmission mechanism of the influence of the change in Japan's foreign direct investment to the evolution of China's industrial structure in four aspects inorder to analyze the approaches and transmission ways of the influence of foreign direct investment to the China's induatrial structure.
Fourth, achieving the conclusion that the influence of Japan's foreign foreign direct investment on China's inter-industrial structure between first, second, third industry and the intra-industrial structure in manufacturing industry with the panel data and time series in order to explain the influence of foreign direct investment to the China's induatrial structure.
The conclusion is:First, the influence of Japan's foreign direct investment to Chian's the second industry is the most obvious, the increase of the Japan's investment leads to the growth of the output in the second industry in China, and there is almost no influence in the first industry, and there is some influence in the third industry. Second, the influence of Japan's foreign direct investment in manufactoring and the major industry includes tansport equipment industry, textile industry, chemical and medical industry.
引文
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②同上。
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①该观点是W.A.Brown在其1946年出版的《对1914-1943年国际金本位制度的再解释》一书中提出的。
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①李孟刚.产业安全理论研究(第二版)[M].北京：经济科学出版社,2010：344.
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④t统计量渐进服从正态分布,即t→N(0,1)。
⑤t统计量的临界值为在显著性水平5%条件下的t值,即t0.05(∞)=-1.645。
① Eviews 6.0比Eviews 5.0功能更为强大,5.0版并不能对面板数据进行协整关系检验,而6.0版的软件可以做到这一点。
② Pedroni, P., "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors." Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics,1999,61,653-670.
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⑤ Johansen协整检验是以VAR模型为基础的检验回归系数的方法,是一种多变量协整关系检验方法。
⑥ Maddala G. S. S. Wu. A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and A View Simple Test. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics,61,631-652.
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② Harvey, Andrew C. Estimating Regression Models with Multiplicative Heteroskedasticity. Econometrica,44, 461-465.
③ Breusch, T. S. and A. R. Pagan. A Simple Test for Heteroskedasticity and Random Coefficient Variation. Econometrica,48,1287-1294.
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⑥ Ng, Serena and Pierre Perron. Lag Length Selection and the Construction of Matrix Estimation, Review of Economic Studies,61,631-653.
⑦在对模型进行估计时,AIC值和SC值越小越好,这样使模型兼顾了简洁性和精确性。
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①蒋瑛.国际直接投资[M].成都：四大学出版社,1995.
②同上。
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①该观点是W.A.Brown在其1946年出版的《对1914-1943年国际金本位制度的再解释》一书中提出的。
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①李孟刚.产业安全理论研究(第二版)[M].北京：经济科学出版社,2010：343.
①李孟刚.产业安全理论研究(第二版)[M].北京：经济科学出版社,2010：343.
①李孟刚.产业安全理论研究(第二版)[M].北京：经济科学出版社,2010：344.
①李孟刚.产业安全理论研究(第二版)[M].北京：经济科学出版社,2010：344.
Kenneth J. Arrow. The Economic Implications of Learning by Doing[J].R.E.S.29(JUNE):155-173.
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① Levin A., Lin C. F., C. Chu. Unit Root Tests in Panel Data:Asymptotic and Finite-Sample Lewis, Properties. Journal of Econometrics,2002,108:1-24.
②Im K. S., Peasaran M H., Y. Skin. Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panel. Journal of Econometrics,2003, 115:53-74.
① Breitung, Jorg. "The Local Power of Some Unit Root Tests for Panel Data, " in B. Baltagi (ed). Advances in Econometrics. Vol.15:Nonstationary Panels, Panel Cointegration, and Dynamic Panels, Amsterdam:JAI Press,2000, 161-178.
② Maddala G. S. S. Wu. A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and A New Sample Test. Oxford Bulletin of Econometrics and Statistics,1999,61:631-652.
③ Hardi, Kaddour. Testing for stationarity in Heterogeneous Panel Data. Econometric Journal,2000,3:148-161.
④t统计量渐进服从正态分布,即t→N(0,1)。
⑤t统计量的临界值为在显著性水平5%条件下的t值,即t0.05(∞)=-1.645。
① Eviews 6.0比Eviews 5.0功能更为强大,5.0版并不能对面板数据进行协整关系检验,而6.0版的软件可以做到这一点。
② Pedroni, P., "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors." Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics,1999,61,653-670.
③Kao, C.," Spurious Regression and Residual-Based Tests for Cointegration in Panel Datas:"Journal of Econometrics, 1999, Vol.90,1-44.
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⑤ Johansen协整检验是以VAR模型为基础的检验回归系数的方法,是一种多变量协整关系检验方法。
⑥ Maddala G. S. S. Wu. A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and A View Simple Test. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics,61,631-652.
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① Glejser, H. A New Test for Heteroskedasticity. Journal of the American Statistical Association,64,316-323.3.
② Harvey, Andrew C. Estimating Regression Models with Multiplicative Heteroskedasticity. Econometrica,44, 461-465.
③ Breusch, T. S. and A. R. Pagan. A Simple Test for Heteroskedasticity and Random Coefficient Variation. Econometrica,48,1287-1294.
④ White, Halbert. A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix and a Direct for Heteroskedasticity. Econometrica,48,817-838.
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③ Phillips, P. C. B. and P. Perron. Testing for a Unit Root in Times Series Regression, Biometrika,75,335-346.
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⑥ Ng, Serena and Pierre Perron. Lag Length Selection and the Construction of Matrix Estimation, Review of Economic Studies,61,631-653.
⑦在对模型进行估计时,AIC值和SC值越小越好,这样使模型兼顾了简洁性和精确性。
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