研发与新兴技术投资的实物期权模型及应用研究
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摘要
技术创新可分为创新的提供方和采纳方。本文侧重于技术的提供方(研发方)投资决策的研究。提供方是指通过研发投资产生新的技术和产品的企业，这些企业把新技术和产品或者自己采用，或者由采纳方在市场上采用而获得经济收益。在技术或产品的研发过程中，企业要面对来自两方面的不确定性：一方面来自与技术或产品有关的不确定性，如技术的投资成本、技术研发当中遇到的技术不确定性；另一方面来自市场环境的不确定性，如替代产品的出现、竞争对手的介入、或宏观经济环境的变化等。这两方面的不确定性还会随着研发的进展而发生动态变化。为了应对研发过程中的动态不确定性，管理者的决策必须具有灵活性。
本文在对技术创新的非实物期权和实物期权文献回顾的基础上，针对现有研究中尚少涉及的问题，并特别关注现实当中遇到的诸如系统复杂性对研发的挑战，企业为应对变化的市场而进行的储备研发投资，小灵通这种低技术落后于高技术出现的现象，新兴技术造成的冲击和新兴技术企业定价等问题，分别从合作创新的R&D联盟，研发投资决策和新兴技术初创企业定价三个方面采用实物期权分析方法进行了研究。在研发投资决策中，对企业的持续创新、不完全竞争和新兴技术研发决策问题进行了研究。
在合作创新方面，主要研究了成本节约效应、技术创新效应和各盟员在技术创新中的相对重要性对组建R&D联盟时机的影响。研究结果表明，在Nash均衡情况下，R&D联盟组建的时机随着创新成本系数的增加越来越接近成本节约效应的情况，并且随着盟主在技术创新中相对重要性的逐渐降低呈现出非线性非单调的变化。
在技术研发方面，首先对企业在持续创新过程中的创新行为进行了研究。研究结果表明，市场不确定性和研发成功的不确定性会促使企业进行储备投资；两因素的相对变化——新产品对旧产品市场需求的影响程度和新产品对旧产品生产成本的差距——影响着企业产品创新和工艺创新的选择。
然后综合考察了市场偏好、技术不确定性、成本差距、技术(质量)水平差距对两企业的技术创新投资的均衡策略、先后投资的时间间隔和投资概率的影响，从而为市场上不同水平技术的研发的时间差异提供了理论解释。
最后，考虑到新兴技术的兴盛具有突发性、未来发展趋势不确定的特征，本
Technology innovation can be classified as the suppliers and adopters of technology innovation. This paper emphasizes particularly on the study of the investment decision of technology suppliers. The suppliers of technology innovation are the enterprises that research and develop new technology and new product by investing. These enterprises can make use of the new technology and product and get revenue, or sell to adopters who introduce the new technology and product to market and get economic return. In the procedure of research and development of technology and product, a firm has to be faced with two kinds of uncertainty. First, the uncertainties associated with technology and product, for example, the uncertainty of investment cost, the technology uncertainty in the procedure of R&D. Second, the uncertainties associated with market environment, for example, the appearance of substitute, or the rival intervention, or the change of macro economic environment. These uncertainties usually change dynamically with the evolution of R&D. To deal with the dynamic uncertainty in the procedure of R&D, the managers must have the flexibility of decision-making.
This paper reviews the classical non-real option and real option literatures of technology innovation, then aims at some problems that have be been involved little in current study. Especially, this paper pays (special) attention to phenomena existing in technology innovation process, such as the challenge faced by R&D caused by system complexity, the prospective research and development made by firms to reply to the changing market demand, the phenomenon of personal access system—the low quality technology or product , which appears after high quality technology and product, the strike caused by emerging technology and valuation of emerging technology enterprises. Thus, this paper focuses on the cooperative research and development — R&D alliance, the decision about R&D investment, and valuation of emerging technology. In the study of R&D investment decision, this paper studies the decision of continuous innovation, the imperfect competition and the decision of emerging technology R&D investment.
In the aspect of cooperative R&D, this paper focuses on the impacts of cost-effective effect, innovation effect, and each alliance member's relative importance in technology innovation on the timing of construction of R&D dynamic alliance. The study shows that under Nash equilibrium, with increasing cost coefficients, the timing of alliance construction gets closerto the result of cost-effective effect, at the same time, with decreasing relative importance of alliance leaderin innovation, the timing of
本文在对技术创新的非实物期权和实物期权文献回顾的基础上，针对现有研究中尚少涉及的问题，并特别关注现实当中遇到的诸如系统复杂性对研发的挑战，企业为应对变化的市场而进行的储备研发投资，小灵通这种低技术落后于高技术出现的现象，新兴技术造成的冲击和新兴技术企业定价等问题，分别从合作创新的R&D联盟，研发投资决策和新兴技术初创企业定价三个方面采用实物期权分析方法进行了研究。在研发投资决策中，对企业的持续创新、不完全竞争和新兴技术研发决策问题进行了研究。
在合作创新方面，主要研究了成本节约效应、技术创新效应和各盟员在技术创新中的相对重要性对组建R&D联盟时机的影响。研究结果表明，在Nash均衡情况下，R&D联盟组建的时机随着创新成本系数的增加越来越接近成本节约效应的情况，并且随着盟主在技术创新中相对重要性的逐渐降低呈现出非线性非单调的变化。
在技术研发方面，首先对企业在持续创新过程中的创新行为进行了研究。研究结果表明，市场不确定性和研发成功的不确定性会促使企业进行储备投资；两因素的相对变化——新产品对旧产品市场需求的影响程度和新产品对旧产品生产成本的差距——影响着企业产品创新和工艺创新的选择。
然后综合考察了市场偏好、技术不确定性、成本差距、技术(质量)水平差距对两企业的技术创新投资的均衡策略、先后投资的时间间隔和投资概率的影响，从而为市场上不同水平技术的研发的时间差异提供了理论解释。
最后，考虑到新兴技术的兴盛具有突发性、未来发展趋势不确定的特征，本
Technology innovation can be classified as the suppliers and adopters of technology innovation. This paper emphasizes particularly on the study of the investment decision of technology suppliers. The suppliers of technology innovation are the enterprises that research and develop new technology and new product by investing. These enterprises can make use of the new technology and product and get revenue, or sell to adopters who introduce the new technology and product to market and get economic return. In the procedure of research and development of technology and product, a firm has to be faced with two kinds of uncertainty. First, the uncertainties associated with technology and product, for example, the uncertainty of investment cost, the technology uncertainty in the procedure of R&D. Second, the uncertainties associated with market environment, for example, the appearance of substitute, or the rival intervention, or the change of macro economic environment. These uncertainties usually change dynamically with the evolution of R&D. To deal with the dynamic uncertainty in the procedure of R&D, the managers must have the flexibility of decision-making.
This paper reviews the classical non-real option and real option literatures of technology innovation, then aims at some problems that have be been involved little in current study. Especially, this paper pays (special) attention to phenomena existing in technology innovation process, such as the challenge faced by R&D caused by system complexity, the prospective research and development made by firms to reply to the changing market demand, the phenomenon of personal access system—the low quality technology or product , which appears after high quality technology and product, the strike caused by emerging technology and valuation of emerging technology enterprises. Thus, this paper focuses on the cooperative research and development — R&D alliance, the decision about R&D investment, and valuation of emerging technology. In the study of R&D investment decision, this paper studies the decision of continuous innovation, the imperfect competition and the decision of emerging technology R&D investment.
In the aspect of cooperative R&D, this paper focuses on the impacts of cost-effective effect, innovation effect, and each alliance member's relative importance in technology innovation on the timing of construction of R&D dynamic alliance. The study shows that under Nash equilibrium, with increasing cost coefficients, the timing of alliance construction gets closerto the result of cost-effective effect, at the same time, with decreasing relative importance of alliance leaderin innovation, the timing of
引文
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