农业银行发展战略研究
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摘要
四大国有商业银行之一的农业银行，资本雄厚，资产规模庞大，但自1996年以来，经营状况日益恶化，由盈利而亏损，且越亏越多。从战略高度认识银行业的发展趋势，采取措施适应潮流使农业银行走出困境是农业银行亟待解决的重大课题，本文力图对此问题作出理论上的探讨和分析，以期得出具有实际操作意义的结论。
美国的波特教授从“产业组织论”的观点出发，分析了行业内部的市场机遇与竞争因素，提出了一整套竞争战略的理论与方法。本文就是这一理论和方法在实际中的具体运用。
目前农业银行的战略：“以在业务功能上，以存款、贷款和结算为主要业务，实行本外币和长短期信贷综合经营；”“到本世纪初，把农业银行初步建成能与国际接轨的具有相当实力的国有商业银行” ；在区位上“将积极调整巩固和提高农村业务” 。
结构上，论文顺次分析了宏观环境、行业环境、农行现状，最后引出结论。宏观环境可以分解为四类：(1)经济因素；(2)社会、文化、人口因素；(3)法律、政治因素；(4)技术因素。本文着重分析了技术及法律因素的影响。政治法律因素（1）决定银行的营业范围。（2）决定银行的重要经营参数-利率的状态。利率机制改革对商业银行的生存环境和经营方式必然产生深刻的影响。（3）确定银行业竞争群体的范围。
行业环境的五类构成因素中，论文着重分析了现有产业竞争强度即潜在加入者两方面情况。现有产业竞争强度：（1）竞争者群体的规模、数量及力量对比。数据分析表明：股份制商业银行的潜在实力以及后续发展力比国有商业银行大，农业银行竞争对手的实力不断上升，国内银行业竞争强度正在上升。（2）市场增长速度。银行产品需求呈快速增长态势，一定程度舒缓了银行业竞争的激烈程度，但也因此吸引了更多潜在加入者的注意力。（3）产品差异。农业银行的业务重点在农村，但其农村业务亏损，全行未能形成具备强大竞争力的核心业务优势。潜在进入者对现有企业的威胁程度主要取决于进入壁垒：（1）绝对成本优势，（2）资本要求。（3）政府管制。
行业发展趋势。从发达国家的历史看，非银行金融机构的竞争压力，商业银行经营风险，政府对银行机构资本比率的管制三方面因素迫使商业银行积极发展不直接在资产负债表中反映的中间业务。1980年代以来，银行收入结构发生了实质性改变，中间业务成为当代西方大银行的业务发展重心，商业银行开办的中间业务与资产业务、负债业务，共同构成了现代银行业务的三大支柱。
农业银行状况分析从组织结构、网点设置、业务构成三方面进行：（1）组织结构。目前中国农业银行实行一级法人、集中管理、分级经营、行长负责的总、分、支行制度。管理层级为总行-省级分行-二级分行-县支行-办事处（营业所、分理处）-储蓄所等六个层次，运作模式为“三级管理、两级经营”，委托代理关系太复杂，管理跨度大，基层行的信息不能及时、准确地传递到上级行，上级行在进行管理决策时因掌握的信息不全而受到影响；另一方面上级行的指令不能及时传达到基层行，而且在传递过程中难免走样，影响决策意图的贯彻实施，不符合商业银行的运作要求。（2）网点设置。地理空间上，农业银行按行政区划设置机构。我国经济在空间上是典型的非均衡经济，一是农村和城市经济发展不均衡；二是东西部、南北方经济发展差距悬殊。这种非均衡的经济格局要求市场经济下的商业银行在分支机构设置和经营网点的布局上必须实行相应的非均衡策略，才能求得全系统最佳的资源配置效率。按行政区划设置机构使得农业银行网点布局于经济发展状况相脱离，大部分网点设置在金融资源相对贫乏、金融服务需求较小的农村地区，造成经济落后地区网点数量相对偏多，业务量严重不足，效益低下的局面。职能空间上，农业银行内各部门、各分支机构不是以市场需要为标准对业务流程进行分工和协作，而是以职能或产品为中心进行分工，强调各专业本身的特点和作用，具体而言，（一）从总行到分支行的职能和责权界定不清，到目前还没有形成《农业银行章程》，以确定各级行的职能和责权范围。（二）同一管理层内各部门权责划定不清，相互缺乏制约和协调，部门分割严重，各部门自成小系统。现在各级行的内部组织机构仍是按与上级单位对应的需要设立，而不是按商业银行自身经营管理的需要设置。职能部门之间相互隔绝，独立进行决策和经营管理活动。（3）业务构成。论文选取工商银行、农业银行、招商银行及交通银行1998年损益表进行了对比分析，指出整个农行的网点多，接触方便的优势未能得到充分发挥，未能转化为业务优势。这里有技术手段落后，缺乏人才的原因，但从根本看，实在是观念问题，指导思想问题。
根据商业银行效益性、安全性、流动性三个经营原则，结合前述状况，论文从理论上提出了关于农业银行现行战略的几点意见：（1）关于网点布局。必须重新布局，根据业务量、安全程度、经济效益和发展潜力等因素，大力撤并那些分布在经济不发达、金融资源匮乏、达不到盈亏平衡点且无发展前景的网点，在撤并的同时集中资源加强金融资源丰富地区的力量，把经营重心转移到金融资源丰富地区，提高整体质量和效益，实现“以
The Agricultural Bank of China (ABC), the third-largest banking organization of the state, which holds over 21% of the whole Chinese banking equity, has long enjoyed a fame of trusty and has gained a full development in its service extension in the past 20 years. However, despite of its great achievements, its performance has been deteriorating since 1996. It profited 2 billion yen in 1996, 0.9 billion in 1997. 1998 was its turning point, at that year ABC suffered a loss of nearly 1 billion yen, then the outcome of the performance gets worse and worse. What is the problem with ABC?
From the viewpoint of industry organization, the American professor Michael E˙Porter probes the market opportunities, profit drivers, key risks, and puts forward a whole system of competitive strategy management. This article is the application of the theory. It is accomplished under the guidance of Professor Porter's five forces model of competition. In structure, the thesis comprises four parts: impact of general environment, industry structure and profitability, internal analysis of ABC, and conclusion.
When reestablished in 1979, ABC was virtually a policy bank whose business was strictly confined in rural area. It played the conflicting roles of both a for-profit organization and a department of government until 1993, during which period it expanded greatly with no regard to cost. It began the transformation process towards commercial bank in 1996, by that time its organization structure and its business character were formed.
The present strategy of ABC is: 'in operation, concentrate on credit and payments function; in area, adjust confirm and enhance the rural activities.'
The general environment consists of four broad dimensions: political/legal, technological, demographic, and macroeconomic. The article mainly analyzes the technological and legal dimensions. The policy environment under which banks operate governs bank operation, services offered, the manner banks expand their facilities to serve the public, and the state of interest rate under which banks operate. The deregulation of interest rate will greatly influence the existing environment and operation manner of commercial bank. Interest rate risk of which ABC has never before thought is the major risk facing it now. From the income structure of international leading banks, it is very clear that net interest income generated from credit service represents less and less percentage among the total revenues. To some banks, net interest rate income covers some 60% of the total revenues, and it covers less than 50% to some other banks. At the present stage, ABC's revenue from intermediate service accounts for only about 1% of total income, besides, it suffered a net loss over its intermediate services in 1998.
Among the five forces that make up industry structure and profitability, the article probes into rivalry among existing banks and new entrants. Three factors are discussed concerning rivalry among existing banks: (1) the number of banks and their relative sizes. Data analysis suggests that joined-equity banks have stronger potential than the state-owned commercial bank. The intensity of competition among the banking industry is rising. (2) industry growth rate. The demand for banking services which has been grown vigorously all these years lows the intensity of competition to a certain degree, however, it attracts the attention of potential entrants as well. (3) degree of differentiation. ABC concentrates its service on rural area, but it contributes negative net revenue. A core service advantage is called for. Three factors determine the height of barriers to entry in thebanking industry: (1) absolute cost advantage. (2) capital requirement. (3) legal barriers.
The development trend of the banking industry. The history of the banking industry in developed countries shows that the competitive pressure from none-bank firms, together with operation risk and the regulation the government puts on capital requirement, drive commercia
美国的波特教授从“产业组织论”的观点出发，分析了行业内部的市场机遇与竞争因素，提出了一整套竞争战略的理论与方法。本文就是这一理论和方法在实际中的具体运用。
目前农业银行的战略：“以在业务功能上，以存款、贷款和结算为主要业务，实行本外币和长短期信贷综合经营；”“到本世纪初，把农业银行初步建成能与国际接轨的具有相当实力的国有商业银行” ；在区位上“将积极调整巩固和提高农村业务” 。
结构上，论文顺次分析了宏观环境、行业环境、农行现状，最后引出结论。宏观环境可以分解为四类：(1)经济因素；(2)社会、文化、人口因素；(3)法律、政治因素；(4)技术因素。本文着重分析了技术及法律因素的影响。政治法律因素（1）决定银行的营业范围。（2）决定银行的重要经营参数-利率的状态。利率机制改革对商业银行的生存环境和经营方式必然产生深刻的影响。（3）确定银行业竞争群体的范围。
行业环境的五类构成因素中，论文着重分析了现有产业竞争强度即潜在加入者两方面情况。现有产业竞争强度：（1）竞争者群体的规模、数量及力量对比。数据分析表明：股份制商业银行的潜在实力以及后续发展力比国有商业银行大，农业银行竞争对手的实力不断上升，国内银行业竞争强度正在上升。（2）市场增长速度。银行产品需求呈快速增长态势，一定程度舒缓了银行业竞争的激烈程度，但也因此吸引了更多潜在加入者的注意力。（3）产品差异。农业银行的业务重点在农村，但其农村业务亏损，全行未能形成具备强大竞争力的核心业
行业发展趋势。从发达国家的历史看，非银行金融机构的竞争压力，商业银行经营风险，政府对银行机构资本比率的管制三方面因素迫使商业银行积极发展不直接在资产负债表中反映的中间业务。1980年代以来，银行收入结构发生了实质性改变，中间业务成为当代西方大银行的业务发展重心，商业银行开办的中间业务与资产业务、负债业务，共同构成了现代银行业务的三大支柱。
农业银行状况分析从组织结构、网点设置、业务构成三方面进行：（1）组织结构。目前中国农业银行实行一级法人、集中管理、分级经营、行长负责的总、分、支行制度。管理层级为总行-省级分行-二级分行-县支行-办事处（营业所、分理处）-储蓄所等六个层次，运作模式为“三级管理、两级经营”，委托代理关系太复杂，管理跨度大，基层行的信息不能及时、准确地传递到上级行，上级行在进行管理决策时因掌握的信息不全而受到影响；另一方面上级行的指令不能及时传达到基层行，而且在传递过程中难免走样，影响决策意图的贯彻实施，不符合商业银行的运作要求。（2）网点设置。地理空间上，农业银行按行政区划设置机构。我国经济在空间上是典型的非均衡经济，一是农村和城市经济发展不均衡；二是东西部、南北方经济发展差距悬殊。这种非均衡的经济格局要求市场经济下的商业银行在分支机构设置和经营网点的布局上必须实行相应的非均衡策略，才能求得全系统最佳的资源配置效率。按行政区划设置机构使得农业银行网点布局于经济发展状况相脱离，大部分网点设置在金融资源相对贫乏、金融服务需求较小的农村地区，造成经济落后地区网点数量相对偏多，业务量严重不足，效益低下的局面。职能空间上，农业银行内各部门、各分支机构不是以市场需要为标准对业务流程进行分工和协作，而是以职能或产品为中心进行分工，强调各专业本身的特点和作用，具体而言，（一）从总行到分支行的职能和责权界定不清，到目前还没有形成《农业银行章程》，以确定各级行的职能和责权范围。（二）同一管理层内各部门权责划定不清，相互缺乏制约和协调，部门分割严重，
根据商业银行效益性、安全性、流动性三个经营原则，结合前述状况，论文从理论上提出了关于农业银行现行战略的几点意见：（1）关于网点布局。必须重新布局，根据业务量、安全程度、经济效益和发展潜力等因素，大力撤并那些分布在经济不发达、金融资源匮乏、达不到盈亏平衡点且无发展前景的网点，在撤并的同时集中资源加强金融资源丰富地区的力量，把经营重心转移到金融资源丰富地区，提高整体质量和效益，实现“以
The Agricultural Bank of China (ABC), the third-largest banking organization of the state, which holds over 21% of the whole Chinese banking equity, has long enjoyed a fame of trusty and has gained a full development in its service extension in the past 20 years. However, despite of its great achievements, its performance has been deteriorating since 1996. It profited 2 billion yen in 1996, 0.9 billion in 1997. 1998 was its turning point, at that year ABC suffered a loss of nearly 1 billion yen, then the outcome of the performance gets worse and worse. What is the problem with ABC?
From the viewpoint of industry organization, the American professor Michael E˙Porter probes the market opportunities, profit drivers, key risks, and puts forward a whole system of competitive strategy management. This article is the application of the theory. It is accomplished under the guidance of Professor Porter's five forces model of competition. In structure, the thesis comprises four parts: impact of general environment, industry structure and profitability, internal analysis of ABC, and conclusion.
When reestablished in 1979, ABC was virtually a policy bank whose business was strictly confined in rural area. It played the conflicting roles of both a for-profit organization and a department of government until 1993, during which period it expanded greatly with no regard to cost. It began the transformation process towards commercial bank in 1996, by that time its organization structure and its business character were formed.
The present strategy of ABC is: 'in operation, concentrate on credit and payments function; in area, adjust confirm and enhance the rural activities.'
The general environment consists of four broad dimensions: political/legal, technological, demographic, and macroeconomic. The article mainly analyzes the technological and legal dimensions. The policy environment under which banks operate governs bank operation, services offered, the manner banks expand their facilities to serve the public, and the state of interest rate under which banks operate. The deregulation of interest rate will greatly influence the existing environment and operation manner of commercial bank. Interest rate risk of which ABC has never before thought is the major risk facing it now. From the income structure of international leading banks, it is very clear that net interest income generated from credit service represents less and less percentage among the total revenues. To some banks, net interest rate income covers some 60% of the total revenues, and it covers less than 50% to some other banks. At the present stage, ABC's revenue from intermediate service accounts for only about 1% of total income, besides, it suffered a net loss over its intermediate services in 1998.
Among the five forces that make up industry structure and profitability, the article probes into rivalry among existing banks and new entrants. Three factors are discussed concerning rivalry among existing banks: (1) the number of banks and their relative sizes. Data analysis suggests that joined-equity banks have stronger potential than the state-owned commercial bank. The intensity of competition among the banking industry is rising. (2) industry growth rate. The demand for banking services which has been grown vigorously all these years lows the intensity of competition to a certain degree, however, it attracts the attention of potential entrants as well. (3) degree of differentiation. ABC concentrates its service on rural area, but it contributes negative net revenue. A core service advantage is called for. Three factors determine the height of barriers to entry in the
The development trend of the banking industry. The history of the banking industry in developed countries shows that the competitive pressure from none-bank firms, together with operation risk and the regulation the government puts on capital requirement, drive commercia
引文
《现代企业战略管理》 陈幼其 华东师范大学出版社 1996. 上海
《企业经营战略与策略》周立公等 经济科学出版社 1994. 北京
《企业战略管理：理论与方法》王玉 上海财经大学出版社2000.上海
《竞争战略》迈克尔·波特 华夏出版社 1997 北京
《战略管理》（英文）亚历克斯·米勒 机械工业出版社 1998 北京
《战略管理》（美）弗雷德·R·戴维 经济科学出版社 1998. 北京
《战略管理学:概念与案例》汤姆森（Tomson）著
北京大学出版社 ,2000 北京
《商业银行与西方金融运作:中国银行改革的前车之鉴》
金钟主编， 中国发展出版社 ,1994. 北京
《国外商业银行借鉴》王选庆主编 辽宁科学技术出版社 ,1995. 沈阳
《西方商业银行管理》潘英丽 编 华东师范大学出版社 1996. 上海
《现代商业银行管理》宋逢明 编著 清华大学出版社 1996 北京
《商业银行经营管理》戴相龙 主编 中国金融出版社, 1998. 北京
《中国国有商业银行运行机制研究》黄铁军著
中国金融出版社1998 北京
《战略管理》（英）C·鲍 曼 中信出版社 1997 北京
《农业银行一级法人体制实施中的问题及对策研究》
农业银行研究所课题组，《农村金融研究》1999，10
《企业经营战略与策略》周立公等 经济科学出版社 1994. 北京
《企业战略管理：理论与方法》王玉 上海财经大学出版社2000.上海
《竞争战略》迈克尔·波特 华夏出版社 1997 北京
《战略管理》（英文）亚历克斯·米勒 机械工业出版社 1998 北京
《战略管理》（美）弗雷德·R·戴维 经济科学出版社 1998. 北京
《战略管理学:概念与案例》汤姆森（Tomson）著
北京大学出版社 ,2000 北京
《商业银行与西方金融运作:中国银行改革的前车之鉴》
金钟主编， 中国发展出版社 ,1994. 北京
《国外商业银行借鉴》王选庆主编 辽宁科学技术出版社 ,1995. 沈阳
《西方商业银行管理》潘英丽 编 华东师范大学出版社 1996. 上海
《现代商业银行管理》宋逢明 编著 清华大学出版社 1996 北京
《商业银行经营管理》戴相龙 主编 中国金融出版社, 1998. 北京
《中国国有商业银行运行机制研究》黄铁军著
中国金融出版社1998 北京
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农业银行研究所课题组，《农村金融研究》1999，10