城乡基础设施均等化供给研究
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摘要
基础设施在提高国家生产能力的同时,还改善着居民的生活水平,是一国物质文明发展水平的重要标志。改革开放三十年来,我国的城市经济得到了飞速发展,城市基础设施的建设也日趋完善,现有的城市基础设施基本上能够满足城市居民生产和生活的需要。但在广大的农村地区,农民们却仍旧生活在严重匮乏基础设施的境地之中。为此,本文提出应当以城市基础设施发展的现有成果作为参照,来努力加强农村基础设施建设,以保障城乡居民能共享国家物质文明的发展成果,即实现城乡基础设施的某种均等化。
城乡基础设施均等化一说并非本文独创,中央政府的多个政府文件均明确指出要实现城乡基本公共服务的均等化,而基础设施就是基本公共服务中的一项重要内容。于此同时,国内也涌现出大量关于城乡基本公共服务均等化的研究。然而这些研究往往将对象局限在公共医疗卫生、义务教育以及社会保障等公共服务上,较少描述基础设施这种公共服务。其原因不外乎如下三点:其一,基础设施与其他公共服务相比十分特殊,其他公共服务都是针对于个体消费而言的某种消费品,而基础设施却同时承载着生产和消费两种功能,因城乡有着完全不同的生产模式,从而对基础设施也有不同的需求,故而难以定义一个“均等化”;其二,其他公共服务是可以独立到某个消费者个体的,具有某种程度上的可分性,而基础设施一经提供就注定是针对于群体的,不具备可分性,所以其他公共服务可以强调“人人均等”,而基础设施却难以从“人人均等”入手;其三,国内的相关研究将此“均等化”较集中地定义为数量和质量的“结果均等”,此定义一经提出,即注定基础设施的均等化研究将无法展开。于是,尽管政府和学术界都提出国家要致力于实现城乡公共服务的均等化,但在基础设施领域却留下了尴尬的理论空白。这促使本文在更加广泛的概念环境中去探寻城乡间的公共服务,究竟要实现一个怎样的均等化状况,即抽象出一个含义更为宽泛的均等化概念。那么,本文的“均等化”是如何定义的呢?
我们知道,任何公共政策的实施,总是为了追求某种价值目标的实现,即努力实现政府所认同的社会福利函数的最大化。于是如果我们确立了这个价值目标,就可以遵循其要求定义出我们要实现怎样的一个“均等化”状态。那么城乡基础设施的均等化乃至公共服务的均等化政策,又是为了实现哪种社会福利函数的最大化(即价值目标)呢?不同学派基于其自身的认知,给社会福利函数总结出完全不同的含义,这些社会福利函数的最大化又各自要求社会实现福利均等、机会均等、最大最小原则下的结果均等、功利主义均等、资源均等、能力均等、权利均等等等“均等化”。我们应当选择其中哪一个呢?或者是否可以创造出一个新的均等化概念呢?
本文最终选定以功利主义的社会福利函数作为全文的理论基础,即本文是依据功利主义所提倡的“最大多数人的最大幸福”而提出“城乡基础设施均等化”含义的。作为一个农民占国民一半以上比例的发展中国家,没有什么更好的社会福利函数比功利主义思想更能彰显农民福利水平的重要性。而基础设施的不可分性和生产性特征,也只有功利主义的社会福利函数才能总结出更加贴切并且具有明确政策含义的“均等化”概念。文中第三章将本文选择功利主义思想的原因归结为六条。依照功利主义的社会福利函数,本文认为城乡基础设施的均等化要遵循如下两条:其一,均等地看待每一个人的福利函数,即在社会福利函数中,赋予每一个人均等的权重,这是功利主义的基本观点。其二,城乡基础设施均等化即是要求城乡基础设施分别给城市福利函数(城市居民福利之和)和农村福利函数(农村居民福利之和)带来的边际福利均等,这样就能保证作为两者之和的全社会福利函数的最大化。
上述两条由功利主义福利函数所引申的均等化要求,很难在现实中得到确切的衡量指标,既难以辨识城乡基础设施是否实现了均等化,更难以衡量偏离均等化的程度(即非均等程度)。为此,我们将上述两条要求进行进一步的细分,以便于找到合适的衡量指标。由于功利主义的社会福利函数最大化要求城乡基础设施给城乡居民带来的边际福利均等化,而基础设施通过直接和间接这两种方式作用于居民的福利水平,所以本文认为城乡基础设施的均等化应尽可能实现直接边际福利和间接边际福利这两个方面的均等化。所谓直接边际福利,就是指城乡居民由于直接消费基础设施而得到的边际福利。间接边际福利是指由于基础设施的提供而产生的生产水平提高、消费空间扩大等变化而带来的边际消费,并由此边际消费带来的边际福利。城乡基础设施的直接边际福利均等化体现为,衡量居民消费基础设施难易程度的基础设施“普及率”或者“覆盖率”,在城乡间应当均等。城乡基础设施的间接边际福利均等化体现为,城乡基础设施给城乡居民带来的边际消费应当均等。依照上述讨论,本文第三章给出了一个衡量城乡基础设施均等化程度的指标体系。随后的第四、五、六章便以上述思想为基础分析了我国城乡基础设施的非均等状况、成因以及经济效应。第七章描述了影响基础设施提升农民福利的多种因素,最后第八章主要描述了实现城乡基础设施均等化的途径。现将全文各章节的主要内容介绍如下:
本文的正文共有8章,第1章是引言,第2章是对相关文献的综述,第3章到第8章是全文的主体部分。
第3章首先指出城乡基础设施均等化的目标是为了实现“最大多数人的最大幸福”,即功利主义思想所要求的价值目标,而后分六个方面阐述了选择这一价值目标的原因。接着,本章在第二小节中提出城乡基础设施均等化的衡量标准和指标体系,并在第三小节中阐述了城乡基础设施均等化的前提条件和几个发达国家的建设经验。本章的最后建立了一个内生经济增长模型,用以讨论在工业反哺农业、城市反哺农村的背景下,相关因素对城乡基础设施均等化政策的影响力。
第4章着重分析了我国城乡基础设施的非均等问题,也即城乡基础设施的差距问题。而城乡基础设施均等化的衡量标准是本文在第三章确定的指标体系。于是,本章首先重点分析了我国建国后城乡基础设施差距的演进简史。而后分别就基础设施的直接边际福利差距和间接边际福利差距对照于第三章所列的种种指标进行了城乡比较,最终得出我国城乡基础设施差距仍十分巨大的结论。
在得到农村基础设施严重落后于城市这一结论后,本文的第5章和第6章分别就为什么会出现这一巨大差距以及这一差距会带来哪些经济效应进行了分析。在第5章中,本文着重从三个方面来讨论造成城乡基础设施差距的原因所在。这三个方面是:基础设施投资的城乡差距、基础设施建造效率的城乡差距以及基础设施维护力度的城乡差距。在第6章中,本文使用因素分析法和空间面板数据模型,实证分析了城乡基础设施差距对拉大城乡生活水平差距、工农业人均产出差距、城乡社会性基础设施差距并减小农民获取工资收入机会这四个经济效应的作用力情况。
在第7章中,本文着重分析了影响农村基础设施提升农民福利的多种因素。而由于农民从消费基础设施中得到的福利水平十分难以计量,故而采用了农民对农村基础设施的满意度进行指代。依据山东省214个行政村670份调查问卷所得到的调查数据,本章使用结构方程模型(SEM)实证分析了农民对农村基础设施的满意度及其影响因素的作用力大小问题。实证分析得出如下结论:除了加大对农村基础设施的投入以外,以中央政府统一安排农村基础设施建设、给距离县城较远的村庄以更多的投入、给非乡镇驻地以及非城郊的普通农村以更多的投入、更加关注收入水平和教育水平较低家庭对基础设施的需求,都可以从很大程度上提高农民总体的福利水平。
在进行完第7章的分析后,本文已对开展如何实现城乡基础设施均等化的研究积攒了足够的知识。于是本文的第8章就着重分析了实现城乡基础设施均等化的途径。在总结全文的基础上,本章首先给出了城乡基础设施均等化建设所要遵循的基本原则。而后,针对本文第5章描述的城乡基础设施在投资、建造效率以及维护力度方面的差距,提出了旨在实现城乡基础设施均等化的种种途径。但上述分析都是针对所有种类基础设施的共性而提出,没有专门针对各种基础设施的个性而提出相应的建议。为此,本章最后还针对各类基础设施提出了一些“个性化”的均等化发展建议。
本文的创新之处在于:1.在我国公共服务均等化研究这一领域中,首次以功利主义的均等化思想作为研究的理论基础;2.使用了因素分析法和空间计量分析工具实证分析了我国城乡基础设施差距的经济效应;3.在工业反哺农业和城市反哺农村的理论假设上,构建了一个讨论城乡基础设施政策安排的内生经济增长模型;4.通过使用结构方程模型和调研数据,实证分析了多种因素影响农民福利(由消费农村基础设施而来的福利)的作用力大小。
Infrastructure could not only improve the productivity of one country, but also improve the living standard of the local residents. So infrastructure is the symbol of the country's material civilization. After 30 years of reform and opening up, China's economy of the cities have grown quickly, the infrastructure nowadays in the cities could satisfy the need of the people in cities. But in the rural areas of China, rural infrastructure is still in deficiency. But we believe the people in the rural areas have the equal right to enjoy the achievement of the country's material civilization with the people in the cities. So it's very important to improve the rural infrastructure. So this paper gives the notion that we should develop the rural infrastructure as well as we could compare with the urban infrastructure. Namely we should realize some kind of equalization between the rural and urban infrastructure.
The equalization of the urban-rural infrastructure is not this paper's original creation. China's central government has given the notion that the "equalization of public service in urban and rural areas" several times in many important documents. These years, the central government is trying to provide the equal public service between the rural and urban areas and public infrastructure is one kind of the most important public service. Because this notion embodied the government's will, so the academic world in China also gave out many researches after the notion of "equalization of rural-urban public services" was given by the central government. But in these researches, we can hardly find a paper which focused on the infrastructure. These researches are keen on the public sanitation, primary education and social security and some other kinds of public service just except infrastructure. The appearance of this situation is the result of three following reasons. The first, other kinds of public service are pure consumables but the provision of infrastructure is not only for consumption but also for production. The second, other kinds of public service are separable for every consumer, but infrastructure cannot be separated for everybody. The third, domestic researches are apt to deem the "equalization" as "equal quantity and equal quality", because of the different modes of production, rural infrastructure must be different to the urban infrastructure. Up to present there is still embarrassingly blank in the research of the equalization of infrastructure, though both the central government and the academic world of China have the same opinion that we should realize the equalization of public service and infrastructure is an important part of public service. Thus this paper believes we should give a more broad definition of the "equalization".
After analyzing many different definitions of the social welfare function, this paper employed utilitarian social welfare function to explain the equalization provision of infrastructure between urban and rural areas. Because China is a developing country where more than half people are farmers, so utilitarian social welfare function could embody the farmer's good best than other kinds of social welfare functions. And because the specialities of infrastructure, such as infrastructure can not be divided and consumed equally by everybody, and utilitarian social welfare function also is built on the conception of colony, so utilitarianism theory is the most suitable for the research of infrastructure. Based on the utilitarianism theory, we believe "the greatest amount of happiness for the greatest number of people" is the most important social aim. Based on this conception, in the area of the infrastructural equalization research, we can get two basic demands. First, everyone's weightiness of the welfare in the social welfare function is the same. Second, rural infrastructure bring the same social marginal welfare of rural social welfare function (the sum of every farmer's welfare) with the marginal welfare of urban social welfare function which is brought by the urban infrastructure.
But it's a pity that we cannot find a suitable index system to estimate the degree of this "equalization" or "inequality" based on the above two demands. So we need to analyze the two demands further. Because the infrastructure could affect the welfare of people by two ways, so there are two kinds of equalization we should realize. The first kind is indirect, infrastructure could affect the productivity of the factories (so the income will be higher) and expanding the space of the consumption, so infrastructure could improve the consumption and then improve the welfare. The second kind is direct, people consume the infrastructure and then get the utility. So the marginal welfare has two types naturally. Then this paper gives another two rules to estimate the equalization and inequality. First, the indirect marginal welfare should be same in the rural and urban areas. Because the farmers are poorer than the people in cities on the whole, so if the infrastructure could bring the same marginal consumption, we could deem this equalization coming into existence. Second, the direct marginal welfare should be same in the rural and urban areas. Because the degree of difficulty on consuming the infrastructure decided the size of the marginal welfare and the popularization rate or coverage rate could embody this degree of difficulty, so if the two kinds of "rate" are equal, we could deem this direct marginal welfare as the same. The third chapter of this paper gives an index system by the above thoughts. Then chapter 4, 5, 6 uses the data from China to analyze the degree of inequality of rural-urban infrastructure, the cause of formation of this inequality, the economic effects of this inequality. Chapter 7 analyzes the factors which affect the farmers' welfare coming from rural infrastructure. Chapter 8 gives the suggestions of how to realize the equalization of the infrastructure in rural and urban areas. The following text gives the details.
This paper includes 8 chapters; the first chapter is the introduction of the whole paper. The second chapter is the literature reviews. From Chapter 3 to Chapter 8 is the main body of the whole paper.
In the Chapter 3, the paper points out the aim of the "equalization of the infrastructure in rural and urban areas" is to realize the "the greatest amount of happiness for the greatest number of people" which is called utilitarianism opinion. Then this chapter gives the reasons of choosing this opinion. The second part of the chapter gives out the index system which could estimate the degree of the equalization or inequality of the infrastructure in rural and urban areas. The third part of the chapter talks about the preconditions of the equalization and the experiences of some developed countries. The last part establishes an endogenous growth model to talk about the related parameters' influences on the urban-rural infrastructure policy of the government.
Chapter 4 analyzes the inequality of the infrastructure between china's rural and urban areas. The standard of the estimation here is coming from the index system in Chapter 3. At first, this chapter talks about the evolution of the gap (inequality) between rural and urban infrastructure in the history of China. Then this chapter analyzes the real gap between rural and urban infrastructure by employ the index system from the table 3.1. At last this chapter gets the result that rural infrastructure is far behind the urban infrastructure.
After getting the conclusion in Chapter 4, Chapter 5 and Chapter 6 separately analyzes the reasons of the inequality of rural and urban infrastructure and the economic effects of this inequality. In Chapter 5, this paper gives the reasons form three aspects: in the processes of infrastructure investment, construction and maintenance. Chapter 6 analyzes the economic effects of the inequality by using the panel data of China. By using the way of factor analysis and the spatial linear panel model (with the software of Matlab6.5), this chapter analyzes the effects of the gap between rural and urban infrastructure which include enlarging the gap of living standard between rural and urban people, the gap of output per people between agriculture and industry, the gap of social infrastructure between rural and urban areas and decreasing the opportunity of the farmers getting wage income from non-agriculture.
Chapter 7 analyzes the factors affecting the farmers' welfare coming from the rural infrastructure. Because the welfare is very difficult to estimate, so this paper uses the satisfactory degree of the rural infrastructure to substitute the welfare. Based on the investigation data of 670 families in 214 administrative villages in Shandong province and the Structural Equation Model (SEM), we find many useful results. Based on the analysis of the investigation, we find the farmers are dissatisfied with the irrigation and the environmental infrastructure. Based on the results of the estimation of SEM model, we find if the farmers had slower growth rate of the income, more superior style of the village, nearer to the center town, lower price of the infrastructures, smaller gaps between supply and requirement, better structure of the family, or more superiority complex coming from comparing with other villages, they would be more satisfactory with the rural infrastructure.
After the analysis in Chapter 7, we have already had enough knowledge to think about the methods to realize the equalization defined by the paper. So Chapter 8 does this job. Based on the summing-up of the whole paper, this chapter first gives the principles which should be abided in the process of realizing the equalization we defined. Then, contra pose to the reasons of the gap between rural and urban infrastructure which is described in Chapter 5, this chapter gives the suggestions which help China realize the equalization of infrastructure in rural and urban areas in the processes of infrastructure investment, construction and maintenance. But the suggestions above focus on the commonness of all kinds of infrastructure, so the last part of the chapter, we gives some individual suggestions in allusion to the different kinds of infrastructure.
The main innovative points are as follows. 1. In the researches of the equalization of public service in rural and urban areas in academic world of China, this paper first uses the utilitarian equalization theory as the base of the analysis. 2. This paper first uses the factor analysis and spatial econometrics to analyze the effects of the inequality of rural and urban infrastructure. 3.This paper also establish an endogenous growth model to talk about the related parameters' influences on the urban-rural infrastructure policy of the government.4.Based on the investigation data of 670 families in 214 administrative villages in Shandong province and the Structural Equation Model(SEM), the paper analyzes the factors affecting the farmers' welfare coming from the rural infrastructure.
城乡基础设施均等化一说并非本文独创,中央政府的多个政府文件均明确指出要实现城乡基本公共服务的均等化,而基础设施就是基本公共服务中的一项重要内容。于此同时,国内也涌现出大量关于城乡基本公共服务均等化的研究。然而这些研究往往将对象局限在公共医疗卫生、义务教育以及社会保障等公共服务上,较少描述基础设施这种公共服务。其原因不外乎如下三点:其一,基础设施与其他公共服务相比十分特殊,其他公共服务都是针对于个体消费而言的某种消费品,而基础设施却同时承载着生产和消费两种功能,因城乡有着完全不同的生产模式,从而对基础设施也有不同的需求,故而难以定义一个“均等化”;其二,其他公共服务是可以独立到某个消费者个体的,具有某种程度上的可分性,而基础设施一经提供就注定是针对于群体的,不具备可分性,所以其他公共服务可以强调“人人均等”,而基础设施却难以从“人人均等”入手;其三,国内的相关研究将此“均等化”较集中地定义为数量和质量的“结果均等”,此定义一经提出,即注定基础设施的均等化研究将无法展开。于是,尽管政府和学术界都提出国家要致力于实现城乡公共服务的均等化,但在基础设施领域却留下了尴尬的理论空白。这促使本文在更加广泛的概念环境中去探寻城乡间的公共服务,究竟要实现一个怎样的均等化状况,即抽象出一个含义更为宽泛的均等化概念。那么,本文的“均等化”是如何定义的呢?
我们知道,任何公共政策的实施,总是为了追求某种价值目标的实现,即努力实现政府所认同的社会福利函数的最大化。于是如果我们确立了这个价值目标,就可以遵循其要求定义出我们要实现怎样的一个“均等化”状态。那么城乡基础设施的均等化乃至公共服务的均等化政策,又是为了实现哪种社会福利函数的最大化(即价值目标)呢?不同学派基于其自身的认知,给社会福利函数总结出完全不同的含义,这些社会福利函数的最大化又各自要求社会实现福利均等、机会均等、最大最小原则下的结果均等、功利主义均等、资源均等、能力均等、权利均等等等“均等化”。我们应当选择其中哪一个呢?或者是否可以创造出一个新的均等化概念呢?
本文最终选定以功利主义的社会福利函数作为全文的理论基础,即本文是依据功利主义所提倡的“最大多数人的最大幸福”而提出“城乡基础设施均等化”含义的。作为一个农民占国民一半以上比例的发展中国家,没有什么更好的社会福利函数比功利主义思想更能彰显农民福利水平的重要性。而基础设施的不可分性和生产性特征,也只有功利主义的社会福利函数才能总结出更加贴切并且具有明确政策含义的“均等化”概念。文中第三章将本文选择功利主义思想的原因归结为六条。依照功利主义的社会福利函数,本文认为城乡基础设施的均等化要遵循如下两条:其一,均等地看待每一个人的福利函数,即在社会福利函数中,赋予每一个人均等的权重,这是功利主义的基本观点。其二,城乡基础设施均等化即是要求城乡基础设施分别给城市福利函数(城市居民福利之和)和农村福利函数(农村居民福利之和)带来的边际福利均等,这样就能保证作为两者之和的全社会福利函数的最大化。
上述两条由功利主义福利函数所引申的均等化要求,很难在现实中得到确切的衡量指标,既难以辨识城乡基础设施是否实现了均等化,更难以衡量偏离均等化的程度(即非均等程度)。为此,我们将上述两条要求进行进一步的细分,以便于找到合适的衡量指标。由于功利主义的社会福利函数最大化要求城乡基础设施给城乡居民带来的边际福利均等化,而基础设施通过直接和间接这两种方式作用于居民的福利水平,所以本文认为城乡基础设施的均等化应尽可能实现直接边际福利和间接边际福利这两个方面的均等化。所谓直接边际福利,就是指城乡居民由于直接消费基础设施而得到的边际福利。间接边际福利是指由于基础设施的提供而产生的生产水平提高、消费空间扩大等变化而带来的边际消费,并由此边际消费带来的边际福利。城乡基础设施的直接边际福利均等化体现为,衡量居民消费基础设施难易程度的基础设施“普及率”或者“覆盖率”,在城乡间应当均等。城乡基础设施的间接边际福利均等化体现为,城乡基础设施给城乡居民带来的边际消费应当均等。依照上述讨论,本文第三章给出了一个衡量城乡基础设施均等化程度的指标体系。随后的第四、五、六章便以上述思想为基础分析了我国城乡基础设施的非均等状况、成因以及经济效应。第七章描述了影响基础设施提升农民福利的多种因素,最后第八章主要描述了实现城乡基础设施均等化的途径。现将全文各章节的主要内容介绍如下:
本文的正文共有8章,第1章是引言,第2章是对相关文献的综述,第3章到第8章是全文的主体部分。
第3章首先指出城乡基础设施均等化的目标是为了实现“最大多数人的最大幸福”,即功利主义思想所要求的价值目标,而后分六个方面阐述了选择这一价值目标的原因。接着,本章在第二小节中提出城乡基础设施均等化的衡量标准和指标体系,并在第三小节中阐述了城乡基础设施均等化的前提条件和几个发达国家的建设经验。本章的最后建立了一个内生经济增长模型,用以讨论在工业反哺农业、城市反哺农村的背景下,相关因素对城乡基础设施均等化政策的影响力。
第4章着重分析了我国城乡基础设施的非均等问题,也即城乡基础设施的差距问题。而城乡基础设施均等化的衡量标准是本文在第三章确定的指标体系。于是,本章首先重点分析了我国建国后城乡基础设施差距的演进简史。而后分别就基础设施的直接边际福利差距和间接边际福利差距对照于第三章所列的种种指标进行了城乡比较,最终得出我国城乡基础设施差距仍十分巨大的结论。
在得到农村基础设施严重落后于城市这一结论后,本文的第5章和第6章分别就为什么会出现这一巨大差距以及这一差距会带来哪些经济效应进行了分析。在第5章中,本文着重从三个方面来讨论造成城乡基础设施差距的原因所在。这三个方面是:基础设施投资的城乡差距、基础设施建造效率的城乡差距以及基础设施维护力度的城乡差距。在第6章中,本文使用因素分析法和空间面板数据模型,实证分析了城乡基础设施差距对拉大城乡生活水平差距、工农业人均产出差距、城乡社会性基础设施差距并减小农民获取工资收入机会这四个经济效应的作用力情况。
在第7章中,本文着重分析了影响农村基础设施提升农民福利的多种因素。而由于农民从消费基础设施中得到的福利水平十分难以计量,故而采用了农民对农村基础设施的满意度进行指代。依据山东省214个行政村670份调查问卷所得到的调查数据,本章使用结构方程模型(SEM)实证分析了农民对农村基础设施的满意度及其影响因素的作用力大小问题。实证分析得出如下结论:除了加大对农村基础设施的投入以外,以中央政府统一安排农村基础设施建设、给距离县城较远的村庄以更多的投入、给非乡镇驻地以及非城郊的普通农村以更多的投入、更加关注收入水平和教育水平较低家庭对基础设施的需求,都可以从很大程度上提高农民总体的福利水平。
在进行完第7章的分析后,本文已对开展如何实现城乡基础设施均等化的研究积攒了足够的知识。于是本文的第8章就着重分析了实现城乡基础设施均等化的途径。在总结全文的基础上,本章首先给出了城乡基础设施均等化建设所要遵循的基本原则。而后,针对本文第5章描述的城乡基础设施在投资、建造效率以及维护力度方面的差距,提出了旨在实现城乡基础设施均等化的种种途径。但上述分析都是针对所有种类基础设施的共性而提出,没有专门针对各种基础设施的个性而提出相应的建议。为此,本章最后还针对各类基础设施提出了一些“个性化”的均等化发展建议。
本文的创新之处在于:1.在我国公共服务均等化研究这一领域中,首次以功利主义的均等化思想作为研究的理论基础;2.使用了因素分析法和空间计量分析工具实证分析了我国城乡基础设施差距的经济效应;3.在工业反哺农业和城市反哺农村的理论假设上,构建了一个讨论城乡基础设施政策安排的内生经济增长模型;4.通过使用结构方程模型和调研数据,实证分析了多种因素影响农民福利(由消费农村基础设施而来的福利)的作用力大小。
Infrastructure could not only improve the productivity of one country, but also improve the living standard of the local residents. So infrastructure is the symbol of the country's material civilization. After 30 years of reform and opening up, China's economy of the cities have grown quickly, the infrastructure nowadays in the cities could satisfy the need of the people in cities. But in the rural areas of China, rural infrastructure is still in deficiency. But we believe the people in the rural areas have the equal right to enjoy the achievement of the country's material civilization with the people in the cities. So it's very important to improve the rural infrastructure. So this paper gives the notion that we should develop the rural infrastructure as well as we could compare with the urban infrastructure. Namely we should realize some kind of equalization between the rural and urban infrastructure.
The equalization of the urban-rural infrastructure is not this paper's original creation. China's central government has given the notion that the "equalization of public service in urban and rural areas" several times in many important documents. These years, the central government is trying to provide the equal public service between the rural and urban areas and public infrastructure is one kind of the most important public service. Because this notion embodied the government's will, so the academic world in China also gave out many researches after the notion of "equalization of rural-urban public services" was given by the central government. But in these researches, we can hardly find a paper which focused on the infrastructure. These researches are keen on the public sanitation, primary education and social security and some other kinds of public service just except infrastructure. The appearance of this situation is the result of three following reasons. The first, other kinds of public service are pure consumables but the provision of infrastructure is not only for consumption but also for production. The second, other kinds of public service are separable for every consumer, but infrastructure cannot be separated for everybody. The third, domestic researches are apt to deem the "equalization" as "equal quantity and equal quality", because of the different modes of production, rural infrastructure must be different to the urban infrastructure. Up to present there is still embarrassingly blank in the research of the equalization of infrastructure, though both the central government and the academic world of China have the same opinion that we should realize the equalization of public service and infrastructure is an important part of public service. Thus this paper believes we should give a more broad definition of the "equalization".
After analyzing many different definitions of the social welfare function, this paper employed utilitarian social welfare function to explain the equalization provision of infrastructure between urban and rural areas. Because China is a developing country where more than half people are farmers, so utilitarian social welfare function could embody the farmer's good best than other kinds of social welfare functions. And because the specialities of infrastructure, such as infrastructure can not be divided and consumed equally by everybody, and utilitarian social welfare function also is built on the conception of colony, so utilitarianism theory is the most suitable for the research of infrastructure. Based on the utilitarianism theory, we believe "the greatest amount of happiness for the greatest number of people" is the most important social aim. Based on this conception, in the area of the infrastructural equalization research, we can get two basic demands. First, everyone's weightiness of the welfare in the social welfare function is the same. Second, rural infrastructure bring the same social marginal welfare of rural social welfare function (the sum of every farmer's welfare) with the marginal welfare of urban social welfare function which is brought by the urban infrastructure.
But it's a pity that we cannot find a suitable index system to estimate the degree of this "equalization" or "inequality" based on the above two demands. So we need to analyze the two demands further. Because the infrastructure could affect the welfare of people by two ways, so there are two kinds of equalization we should realize. The first kind is indirect, infrastructure could affect the productivity of the factories (so the income will be higher) and expanding the space of the consumption, so infrastructure could improve the consumption and then improve the welfare. The second kind is direct, people consume the infrastructure and then get the utility. So the marginal welfare has two types naturally. Then this paper gives another two rules to estimate the equalization and inequality. First, the indirect marginal welfare should be same in the rural and urban areas. Because the farmers are poorer than the people in cities on the whole, so if the infrastructure could bring the same marginal consumption, we could deem this equalization coming into existence. Second, the direct marginal welfare should be same in the rural and urban areas. Because the degree of difficulty on consuming the infrastructure decided the size of the marginal welfare and the popularization rate or coverage rate could embody this degree of difficulty, so if the two kinds of "rate" are equal, we could deem this direct marginal welfare as the same. The third chapter of this paper gives an index system by the above thoughts. Then chapter 4, 5, 6 uses the data from China to analyze the degree of inequality of rural-urban infrastructure, the cause of formation of this inequality, the economic effects of this inequality. Chapter 7 analyzes the factors which affect the farmers' welfare coming from rural infrastructure. Chapter 8 gives the suggestions of how to realize the equalization of the infrastructure in rural and urban areas. The following text gives the details.
This paper includes 8 chapters; the first chapter is the introduction of the whole paper. The second chapter is the literature reviews. From Chapter 3 to Chapter 8 is the main body of the whole paper.
In the Chapter 3, the paper points out the aim of the "equalization of the infrastructure in rural and urban areas" is to realize the "the greatest amount of happiness for the greatest number of people" which is called utilitarianism opinion. Then this chapter gives the reasons of choosing this opinion. The second part of the chapter gives out the index system which could estimate the degree of the equalization or inequality of the infrastructure in rural and urban areas. The third part of the chapter talks about the preconditions of the equalization and the experiences of some developed countries. The last part establishes an endogenous growth model to talk about the related parameters' influences on the urban-rural infrastructure policy of the government.
Chapter 4 analyzes the inequality of the infrastructure between china's rural and urban areas. The standard of the estimation here is coming from the index system in Chapter 3. At first, this chapter talks about the evolution of the gap (inequality) between rural and urban infrastructure in the history of China. Then this chapter analyzes the real gap between rural and urban infrastructure by employ the index system from the table 3.1. At last this chapter gets the result that rural infrastructure is far behind the urban infrastructure.
After getting the conclusion in Chapter 4, Chapter 5 and Chapter 6 separately analyzes the reasons of the inequality of rural and urban infrastructure and the economic effects of this inequality. In Chapter 5, this paper gives the reasons form three aspects: in the processes of infrastructure investment, construction and maintenance. Chapter 6 analyzes the economic effects of the inequality by using the panel data of China. By using the way of factor analysis and the spatial linear panel model (with the software of Matlab6.5), this chapter analyzes the effects of the gap between rural and urban infrastructure which include enlarging the gap of living standard between rural and urban people, the gap of output per people between agriculture and industry, the gap of social infrastructure between rural and urban areas and decreasing the opportunity of the farmers getting wage income from non-agriculture.
Chapter 7 analyzes the factors affecting the farmers' welfare coming from the rural infrastructure. Because the welfare is very difficult to estimate, so this paper uses the satisfactory degree of the rural infrastructure to substitute the welfare. Based on the investigation data of 670 families in 214 administrative villages in Shandong province and the Structural Equation Model (SEM), we find many useful results. Based on the analysis of the investigation, we find the farmers are dissatisfied with the irrigation and the environmental infrastructure. Based on the results of the estimation of SEM model, we find if the farmers had slower growth rate of the income, more superior style of the village, nearer to the center town, lower price of the infrastructures, smaller gaps between supply and requirement, better structure of the family, or more superiority complex coming from comparing with other villages, they would be more satisfactory with the rural infrastructure.
After the analysis in Chapter 7, we have already had enough knowledge to think about the methods to realize the equalization defined by the paper. So Chapter 8 does this job. Based on the summing-up of the whole paper, this chapter first gives the principles which should be abided in the process of realizing the equalization we defined. Then, contra pose to the reasons of the gap between rural and urban infrastructure which is described in Chapter 5, this chapter gives the suggestions which help China realize the equalization of infrastructure in rural and urban areas in the processes of infrastructure investment, construction and maintenance. But the suggestions above focus on the commonness of all kinds of infrastructure, so the last part of the chapter, we gives some individual suggestions in allusion to the different kinds of infrastructure.
The main innovative points are as follows. 1. In the researches of the equalization of public service in rural and urban areas in academic world of China, this paper first uses the utilitarian equalization theory as the base of the analysis. 2. This paper first uses the factor analysis and spatial econometrics to analyze the effects of the inequality of rural and urban infrastructure. 3.This paper also establish an endogenous growth model to talk about the related parameters' influences on the urban-rural infrastructure policy of the government.4.Based on the investigation data of 670 families in 214 administrative villages in Shandong province and the Structural Equation Model(SEM), the paper analyzes the factors affecting the farmers' welfare coming from the rural infrastructure.
引文
[1]转载自辽宁大学王庆海博士论文《中国基础设施供求非均衡研究》,第18页。
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[1]转引自唐建新、杨军《基础设施与经济发展》,武汉大学出版社,2003年版,第5页。
[1]赫希曼:《经济发展战略》,经济科学出版社,1991年版,74-76页。
[1]高帆:《交易效率、分工演进与二元经济结构转化》,上海三联书店,2007年版,第138-144页.
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[1]摘自《百度百科》,网址:http://baike.baidu.com/view/230861.htm。后文中的功利主义在现实中的应用也是出自这里。
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[2]这里较多参考了葛四友于2004年《哲学研究》第10期发表的文章《评阿内逊的福利机遇平等观》,特此致谢!
[1]摘自王绍光,平等问题研究框架(析出文献),来自论文集《权衡.收入分配与社会和谐》,上海:上海社会科学院出版社,2005。
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[1]转引自黄有光《效率、公平与公共政策》,社会科学文献出版社,2003年版,第212页。
[1]资料来自:华生,《韩国新村运动的严重误读》,新浪财经,http://finance.sina.com.cn/economist/jingjixueren/20060320/17112432004.shtml.
[2]资料来自:外交部专题报道,《借鉴日本、韩国农村发展经验 探索新形势下农村建设新思路》,外交部官方网站,http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/chn/ziliao/wzzt/jjywj/t261294.htm。
[1]数字来源于:周建华 贺正楚,《法国农村改革对我国新农村建设的启示》,《求索》2007年第3期。
[1]江西省县乡村公路网情况综述,来自江西公路网,网址:http://www.jxgl.gov.cn.
[1]资料来自于:人民网,《110出警原则上按3分钟5分钟赶到现场》,网址:http://www.people.com.cn。
[2]资料来自于:齐办,《加强农村消防工作》.《人民公安报(消防周刊)》,2006年1月13日,第1版。
[1]资料来自于:温州网,《120不接电话,病人坐拖拉机去医院半路死亡》,网址:http://report.66wz.com/system/2008/04/01/100523814.shtml.
[1]数字来源:杜峻晓,《望远镇的环保生活》,《人民日报》,2006年4月6日出版,第16版。
[1]宗青,《环保总局潘岳:环境不公正在加重社会不公》,《中国建设报》,2004年11月12日出版。
[2]本文对空间计量经济学的简介较多地参阅了王火根和沈利生在2007年数量经济学年会入选论文《中国经济增长与能源消费空间面板分析》中对于空间面板数据模型的总结,特此致谢!
[1]选择固定效应模型而非随机效应模型的理由是,当样本回归分析局限于一些特定的个体时(如中国大陆的31个省级区划单位),固定效应模型应该是更好的选择(Baltagi,2001)。在高铁梅的著作《计量分析方法与建模》(清华大学出版社)里也有类似的介绍。
[1]详细的估计过程请见本文第5章的第1小节。
[2]读者可能发现这里的计量和后文第6章的计量分析中都选择了较少的控制变量,这是因为本文希望尽可能多地从所讨论的目标变量——基础设施中得到空间相关的信息。如果夹杂了过多的变量,我们就难以区分是否是由基础设施引致的空间相关,更难以计量基础设施对被解释变量的空间溢出效果。
[3]这里的检验和后文中的模型估计均采用Matlab6.5软件和由Lesage和Elhorst等人编写的Spatial econometric工具箱,该工具箱可以从www.spatial-econometrics.com直接下载。
[1]转载于:徐淑红、范建双,《农田水利设施运行环节弱化机理分析及其政策研究》,《山东大学研究生学志》,2008年10期。
[2]资料来自于;任晓刚、张源培,《农村基础设施重建设轻维护现象应当改变》,新华网:http://news.xinhuanet.com/newscenter/2005-06/29/content_3152738.htm.
[1]摘自贺文彪,《农村公路沥青路面的破坏原因与预防措施》,《交通科技与经济》2008年第3期,52到53页。
[1]资料转载于:林毅夫,《三农问题与我国农村的未来发展》,《农业经济问题》,2003年第1期。
[1]资料来源:新疆平安网,《岳普湖县农村公路为农民致富铺就“快车道”》,网址.http://www.xjpeace.cn。
[1]资料来源:姚润丰、杨三军,《涓涓清泉润民心》,新华网,网址:http://news.xinhuanet.com/newscenter/2008-10/26/content_10254998.htm.
[1]资料来源:蔡国兆、彭友,《京沪高铁将改变中国区域经济格局》,《上海证券报》2006年4月4日第A02版。
[1]资料来自:王志,《山东基本实现村村通宽带》,新华网,网址:http://news.xinhuanet.com/newscenter/2008-05/26/content_8257517.htm.
[2]资料来自:于洪光,《山东农村基本实现“村村通”》,新华网,网址:http://news.xinhuanet.com/politics/2006-02/10/content_4160499.htm.
[3]资料来自:叶辉,《村村通工程:西藏50%以上乡村开通电话》,新华网,网址:http://www.xz.xinhuanet.com/xizangyaowen/2008-11/09/content_14867969.htm.
[1]摘自李雁争,《扩大一事一议财政奖补范围》,《上海证券报》,2009年2月21日,第2版。
[1]华兴顺,《建设新农村中的财政投入机制研究》,《新西部(下半月)》,2008年第2期。
[1]资料来自:李亚杰,《乡镇企业每年投入补农建农基础设施资金达160亿》,新华网,网址:http://news.xinhuanet.com/newcountryside/2007-01/25/content_5649611.htm.
[1]资料来自:丁国元,《审计署:16省区挪用中央支农资金逾6亿元》,《工人日报》,2008年7月26日,第2版。
[2]资料来自:袁蓉君,《世界银行认为监管对公用事业改革至关重要》,《金融时报》,2004年6月17日。
[1]资料来自:《1—9月份全国农村公路建设完成情况》.《农村公路简讯第55期》,中国农村公路网,网址:http://www.moc.gov.cn/06road/jianbao/jianxun55/200810/t20081031_532651.html。
[2]资料来自:刘新华,《对黄冈市农村公路建设的思考》,《中国工程咨询》,2005年第8期。
[1]资料来自:罗义华,《大足锶渣修路修成“正果”》,《重庆日报》,2006年8月9日,第5版。
[2]资料来自:项开来,《福建逾七成建制村通班车》,新华网。网址:http://news.xinhuanet.com/newscenter/2008-01/13/content_7413297.htm.
[1]资料来自:胡松,《四川优惠政策扶持农村客运发展》,《中国交通报》,2007年6月28日,B02版。
[2]农用三轮车是指:柴油发动机,功率不大于7.4kw,载重量不大于500kg,最高车速不大于40km/h 的三个车轮的机动车。
[1]资料来自:张周来,《我国将有4000万农户用上沼气》,《经济参考报》,2008年9月2日,第8版。
[2]资料来自:牛海英,《万台太阳灶点亮坝上农民新生活》,《河北日报》,2008年7月2日,第6版。
[1]资料来自:《村村通电话工程工作简报2008年第1期》,转载自“国研网”,网址:www.drcnet.com.cn。
[1]资料来自:田永德,《120车没带钱收费站受阻延误抢救伤员公路担责》,新华网,网址:http://news.xinhuanet.com/legal/2006-05/10/content_4529480.htm.
[1]资料来自:《济南设立乡镇派出所消防队》,转载自新浪新闻网站.网址:http://news.sina.com.cn/china/2000-2-27/65616.html.
[1]资料来自:杨宝宝,《出警屡屡返回》,《人民公安报·消防周刊》,2008年10月17日,第1版。
[1]资料来自:张志颖、袁帅,《安徽汤池推行儒家传统文化引热议》,转引自新浪网,网址:http://news.sina.com.cn/c/2008-08-28/064416187048.shtml。
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256.朱效章.美国的农村电气化[J].小水电,2005(6):5-6.
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[1]摘自[英]亚当·斯密:《国民财富的性质和原因的研究(下卷)》商务印书馆,1983年版,第285-292页。
[1]转引自唐建新、杨军《基础设施与经济发展》,武汉大学出版社,2003年版,第5页。
[1]赫希曼:《经济发展战略》,经济科学出版社,1991年版,74-76页。
[1]高帆:《交易效率、分工演进与二元经济结构转化》,上海三联书店,2007年版,第138-144页.
[1][英]亚当·斯密,《国民财富的性质和原因的研究》下卷,商务印书馆,1996,第285页。
[1][法]萨伊,《政治经济学概论》,北京,商务印书馆1963年10月第1版,第499-500页。
[2](美)鲍德成(Robin W.Boadway),(美)威迪逊(David E.Wildasin)著,《公共部门经济学》,中国人民大学出版社,2000年,主译为邓力平,第2页。
[1]摘自杨小凯,《经济学:新兴古典与新古典框架》,社会科学出版社,2003年版,第322页。
[1]引自《辞海》(上海辞书出版社,1979年版)第506页。
[2]引自《辞海》(上海辞书出版社,1979年版)第2034页。
[3]见《现代汉语词典》(商务印书馆,1978年版)第614页。
[4]李龙、万鄂湘著:《人权理论与国际人权》,武汉大学出版社1992年版,第41页。
[1]摘自周其明,《中西平等观念的比较及平等权的历史起源》,二十一世纪法学评论,2005年第2期。
[2]亚里士多德:《政治学》,吴寿彭译,商务印书馆1965年版,第235页.
[1]转引自周辅成编:《从文艺复兴到十九世纪资产阶级文学艺术家有关人道主义人性论言论选辑》,商务印书馆1971年版,第17页。
[1]霍布斯:《利维坦》,黎思复等译,商务印书馆,1985年版,第93页.
[1]摘自《百度百科》,网址:http://baike.baidu.com/view/230861.htm。后文中的功利主义在现实中的应用也是出自这里。
[1]Kekes,"A Question for Egalitarians",Ethics,107(July 1997):658-669.
[2]这里较多参考了葛四友于2004年《哲学研究》第10期发表的文章《评阿内逊的福利机遇平等观》,特此致谢!
[1]摘自王绍光,平等问题研究框架(析出文献),来自论文集《权衡.收入分配与社会和谐》,上海:上海社会科学院出版社,2005。
[1]摘自[美]罗纳德·德沃金著,冯克利译,《至上的美德—平等的理论与实践》,南京:江苏人民出版社,2003年版,第4页。
[1]转引自黄有光《效率、公平与公共政策》,社会科学文献出版社,2003年版,第212页。
[1]资料来自:华生,《韩国新村运动的严重误读》,新浪财经,http://finance.sina.com.cn/economist/jingjixueren/20060320/17112432004.shtml.
[2]资料来自:外交部专题报道,《借鉴日本、韩国农村发展经验 探索新形势下农村建设新思路》,外交部官方网站,http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/chn/ziliao/wzzt/jjywj/t261294.htm。
[1]数字来源于:周建华 贺正楚,《法国农村改革对我国新农村建设的启示》,《求索》2007年第3期。
[1]江西省县乡村公路网情况综述,来自江西公路网,网址:http://www.jxgl.gov.cn.
[1]资料来自于:人民网,《110出警原则上按3分钟5分钟赶到现场》,网址:http://www.people.com.cn。
[2]资料来自于:齐办,《加强农村消防工作》.《人民公安报(消防周刊)》,2006年1月13日,第1版。
[1]资料来自于:温州网,《120不接电话,病人坐拖拉机去医院半路死亡》,网址:http://report.66wz.com/system/2008/04/01/100523814.shtml.
[1]数字来源:杜峻晓,《望远镇的环保生活》,《人民日报》,2006年4月6日出版,第16版。
[1]宗青,《环保总局潘岳:环境不公正在加重社会不公》,《中国建设报》,2004年11月12日出版。
[2]本文对空间计量经济学的简介较多地参阅了王火根和沈利生在2007年数量经济学年会入选论文《中国经济增长与能源消费空间面板分析》中对于空间面板数据模型的总结,特此致谢!
[1]选择固定效应模型而非随机效应模型的理由是,当样本回归分析局限于一些特定的个体时(如中国大陆的31个省级区划单位),固定效应模型应该是更好的选择(Baltagi,2001)。在高铁梅的著作《计量分析方法与建模》(清华大学出版社)里也有类似的介绍。
[1]详细的估计过程请见本文第5章的第1小节。
[2]读者可能发现这里的计量和后文第6章的计量分析中都选择了较少的控制变量,这是因为本文希望尽可能多地从所讨论的目标变量——基础设施中得到空间相关的信息。如果夹杂了过多的变量,我们就难以区分是否是由基础设施引致的空间相关,更难以计量基础设施对被解释变量的空间溢出效果。
[3]这里的检验和后文中的模型估计均采用Matlab6.5软件和由Lesage和Elhorst等人编写的Spatial econometric工具箱,该工具箱可以从www.spatial-econometrics.com直接下载。
[1]转载于:徐淑红、范建双,《农田水利设施运行环节弱化机理分析及其政策研究》,《山东大学研究生学志》,2008年10期。
[2]资料来自于;任晓刚、张源培,《农村基础设施重建设轻维护现象应当改变》,新华网:http://news.xinhuanet.com/newscenter/2005-06/29/content_3152738.htm.
[1]摘自贺文彪,《农村公路沥青路面的破坏原因与预防措施》,《交通科技与经济》2008年第3期,52到53页。
[1]资料转载于:林毅夫,《三农问题与我国农村的未来发展》,《农业经济问题》,2003年第1期。
[1]资料来源:新疆平安网,《岳普湖县农村公路为农民致富铺就“快车道”》,网址.http://www.xjpeace.cn。
[1]资料来源:姚润丰、杨三军,《涓涓清泉润民心》,新华网,网址:http://news.xinhuanet.com/newscenter/2008-10/26/content_10254998.htm.
[1]资料来源:蔡国兆、彭友,《京沪高铁将改变中国区域经济格局》,《上海证券报》2006年4月4日第A02版。
[1]资料来自:王志,《山东基本实现村村通宽带》,新华网,网址:http://news.xinhuanet.com/newscenter/2008-05/26/content_8257517.htm.
[2]资料来自:于洪光,《山东农村基本实现“村村通”》,新华网,网址:http://news.xinhuanet.com/politics/2006-02/10/content_4160499.htm.
[3]资料来自:叶辉,《村村通工程:西藏50%以上乡村开通电话》,新华网,网址:http://www.xz.xinhuanet.com/xizangyaowen/2008-11/09/content_14867969.htm.
[1]摘自李雁争,《扩大一事一议财政奖补范围》,《上海证券报》,2009年2月21日,第2版。
[1]华兴顺,《建设新农村中的财政投入机制研究》,《新西部(下半月)》,2008年第2期。
[1]资料来自:李亚杰,《乡镇企业每年投入补农建农基础设施资金达160亿》,新华网,网址:http://news.xinhuanet.com/newcountryside/2007-01/25/content_5649611.htm.
[1]资料来自:丁国元,《审计署:16省区挪用中央支农资金逾6亿元》,《工人日报》,2008年7月26日,第2版。
[2]资料来自:袁蓉君,《世界银行认为监管对公用事业改革至关重要》,《金融时报》,2004年6月17日。
[1]资料来自:《1—9月份全国农村公路建设完成情况》.《农村公路简讯第55期》,中国农村公路网,网址:http://www.moc.gov.cn/06road/jianbao/jianxun55/200810/t20081031_532651.html。
[2]资料来自:刘新华,《对黄冈市农村公路建设的思考》,《中国工程咨询》,2005年第8期。
[1]资料来自:罗义华,《大足锶渣修路修成“正果”》,《重庆日报》,2006年8月9日,第5版。
[2]资料来自:项开来,《福建逾七成建制村通班车》,新华网。网址:http://news.xinhuanet.com/newscenter/2008-01/13/content_7413297.htm.
[1]资料来自:胡松,《四川优惠政策扶持农村客运发展》,《中国交通报》,2007年6月28日,B02版。
[2]农用三轮车是指:柴油发动机,功率不大于7.4kw,载重量不大于500kg,最高车速不大于40km/h 的三个车轮的机动车。
[1]资料来自:张周来,《我国将有4000万农户用上沼气》,《经济参考报》,2008年9月2日,第8版。
[2]资料来自:牛海英,《万台太阳灶点亮坝上农民新生活》,《河北日报》,2008年7月2日,第6版。
[1]资料来自:《村村通电话工程工作简报2008年第1期》,转载自“国研网”,网址:www.drcnet.com.cn。
[1]资料来自:田永德,《120车没带钱收费站受阻延误抢救伤员公路担责》,新华网,网址:http://news.xinhuanet.com/legal/2006-05/10/content_4529480.htm.
[1]资料来自:《济南设立乡镇派出所消防队》,转载自新浪新闻网站.网址:http://news.sina.com.cn/china/2000-2-27/65616.html.
[1]资料来自:杨宝宝,《出警屡屡返回》,《人民公安报·消防周刊》,2008年10月17日,第1版。
[1]资料来自:张志颖、袁帅,《安徽汤池推行儒家传统文化引热议》,转引自新浪网,网址:http://news.sina.com.cn/c/2008-08-28/064416187048.shtml。
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