经济增长中地理要素作用的空间计量经济分析
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摘要
经济增长问题一直是研究的热点，本文基于经济增长的三个事实：经济分异、经济收敛、产业专业化和聚集现象，分析了三大地理要素对这些事实的作用。
第一章为引论，基于人地关系理论、比较优势、新经济增长理论，在Krugman(1993)提出的两大自然基础之上，提出了影响经济增长的三大地理要素，其中自然地理环境为第一地理要素，共包括海拔、坡度、地形起伏度、人生气候指数、水资源适宜度、农业生产潜力；交通和区位为第二地理要素，分别用交通便利性和经济区位来表示；人力资本和研发水平为经济发展的第三地理要素，分别用受教育年限和专利水平来表示。
第二章分析了三大地理要素的时空分布及变化，通过建模，在Arcgis 9.0支持下获取各地级单元的地理要素值，分析了三大地理要素在时空的变化。
第三章为经济增长的地理差异事实，经济增长指标包括经济增长速度、经济增长规模、经济结构和经济效率等，分析了这些指标的时空变化，并通过Gini系数和Wolfson指数、核密度函数分布曲线分析了区域经济的不平衡和极化现象。
第四章为经济发展中地理要素的作用，本文认为三大地理要素是经济发展的三次诱因，自然地理环境对经济发展起了最基本的发展作用，交通便利性和经济区位的作用促使了地理环境对经济影响的改变，新增长理论的人力资本和研发水平是经济发生的内生的动力，是经济发展的第三次诱因。
基于地级单元截面数据分析经济发展同各地理要素的关系，发现影响经济发展的要素并非单一的，而是多样的。在不同尺度上地理要素对经济发展的作用不同，其中在七大区域尺度上发现三次地理要素的作用与经济发展的关系表现为：
(ⅰ)在经济相对落后的西北区和西南区，地理环境相对恶劣，对人类活动一直有较强的限制作用，交通、经济区位和人力资本的作用改善了对人有限制作用。
(ⅱ)经济相对较发达的东北区、京津冀鲁、东部沿海区、南部沿海区，发现良好自然地理环境为农业生产提供了优势条件，引导经济产生第一次分异，随着交通、经济区位和人力资本的提高，自然环境的作用在减小但仍然存在，经济的发展更依赖于受第三平和第二地理要素，人地关系进入了人对地的充分利用阶段。
第五章为区域经济收敛性与地理要素分析，将研究时间划分不同的时段，分析各区域经济的收敛机制及地理要素对经济收敛的影响，并计算了经济增长的稳态值。结果发现：
(ⅰ)在1994～2004年间除西南区域外其它区域都不存在σ收敛，全国尺度上也不存在σ收敛，但选取研究不同的时间段σ收敛也有所变化。
(ⅱ)在七大区域尺度上，对比考虑空间作用前后的经济收敛回归模型，发现1994～2004西北区和西南区的收敛性有所增强，地理间的相互作用使得区域之间的差异变化速度减小，东部沿海区、京津冀鲁区和中部区的经济发散性都增强，即地理间相互作用加大了区域间经济的差异变化速度。
(ⅲ)为探讨地理要素对经济收敛的作用机制，在1999～2004年区域尺度上分析地理要素对经济增长速度的影响，发现七大区域中，第一地理要素中的第一主因子对经济增长作用都为正值，即经济增长发生在地形地貌条件较好的区域，第二主因子对经济增长作用在经济发达的区域像京津冀鲁区、东部沿海区和南部沿海区表现为正值，即优越的自然环境也可为经济增长提供良好的基础。
交通便利性对经济增长起了明显的促进作用。受教育年限对发达地区的经济增长出现负作用，研发水平在东部地区作用最强。
第六章为产业专业化、聚集同地理要素的作用。全国尺度上分析了影响三次产业区位熵的地理要素，发现第一产业区位熵仅与农业生产潜力有正相关作用。第二产业区位熵与第二、三地理要素对有正相关关系。第三产业的区位熵与第一第二地理要素有显著正相关关系。选取主要的制造业部门分析地理要素的作用，发现影响烟草加工聚集和纺织业聚集受第一地理要素影响最大；电子通讯业是高技术密集型产业，与交通、区位以及研发水平和固定资产等因子关系密切，主要是受第三地理要素引导的加工业。最后分析矿产产业这种特殊的资源型产业的产业聚集情况，并以资源强度系数代表了矿业相对丰富程度，发现矿业资源丰富度是促使产业聚集的重要因素，交通、水资源对其影响也很大。
第七章为本文的总结与讨论，对全文的研究进行归纳，并指出了研究中的不足和进一步研究方向。
Economic growth has been a hot issue. Based on the economic growth of three facts: economic diversity, economic convergence, and industry specialization and agglomeration, the paper analyzes the effect of three major geographic factors on these facts.
The first chapter is the overviews about these facts and theories of human-land relationship, comparative advantages, and the new theory of economic growth. Based on the two nature theory of Krugman(1993), the paper proposes three geographic factors of the economic growth: the first geographic factor refers to natural environment, including elevation, slope, undulating topography, human climate index, water resource index, and potential agricultural production; the second geographic factor is traffic and location, which are represented by transport facilitation and economic position respectively; the third geography factors is human capital and R&D level , respectively represented by education years and the level of the patent number.
Chapter II is about by means of acquiring the values of geographic factors of various regions through modeling.
Chapter III develops analysis of the temporal and spatial changes of economic growth. Economic indicators include economic growth rate, economic structure, economic scale and economic efficiency. The paper analyzes regional economic inequality and polarization by calculating the Gini coefficient, Wolfson index and kernel density curve.
Chapter IV presents effects of the three major geographic factors on economic diversity , and concludes that the three geographic factors serve as three inducements of economic development, during which the first geographic factor is basal and elementary, the convenient transportation and economic location can promote the geographic environment and bring the second change of the economic development, new economic growth theory indicates the role of human capital and R&D level, whose function is as endogenous impetus in the process of economic development.
Based on the cross section data, the paper analyzes the relationship between the geographic factor and economic development, and indicates that the factor influencing the economic development is not single but diverse. On different geographic scale the impacts of geographic factors are different.
In seven regions we found three geographic factors having the good relationship between economic developments.
(i) In the Northwest and the Southwest, Central District, the relatively poor region, geographic environment can restrict human activity, but the second geographic factors, transportation and economic position can improve the role of first geographic factors, on the whole the people have a limiting effect.
(ii) In the relatively economic region, such as Beijing-Tianjin - Hebei-Shandong region, and the eastern coastal areas, the southern coastal areas, we found a good natural environment for agricultural production can provided favorable conditions, and guide the economic development, although with the traffic and human capital development, the effect of the natural environment is reduced ,which still exist, economic development mainly dependent on the second and third geographic factors.
In Chapter V which mainly discussed the convergence of regional economy and the analysis of geographic factors, we partitioned the different period, analyzing convergence principle of different economy and the impact of geographic factors on economy convergence, and calculating the steady-state value of economic growth. We can achieve the following results:
(i) From 1994 to 2000, there is no σ convergence phenomenon except in southwest region, neither the whole country. However, in different studying period we will get the different σ convergence result.
(ii) Comparing the economy convergence regression models considering or not considering the spatial effect, we have recognized that from 1994 to 2004 convergence rate of the northwest and southwest region among Seven regions speed up, and Eastern coastal region, Beijing-Tianjin - Hebei-Shandong region and the central region economy showing the divergence of economy with increasing tendency, namely the mutual geographic effect can increase the disparity among different regions.
(iii) In order to explore the function principle of the geography factor on economic convergence, on regional scale from 1999 to 2004, we analyze the impact of geographic factors on the rate of economic growth, finding that in the seven regions, the impact of the first main factor of the first geographic factor on economic growth is positive, namely economic growth in such regions that have the good condition about landform will be better. The impact of the second main factor on economic growth in developed regions like the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei-Shandong region, the Eastern coastal region and Southern coastal region is positive, that is superior in terms of the natural environment can provide a good foundation for economic growth..
Convenient transportation plays an obviously positive role on economic growth. Fixed number of year of Education plays an obviously negative role on economic growth in the developed regions. The impact of Research and Development on the eastern region is strongest.
Chapter VI shows situations of industry specialization and agglomeration and the effects of three geographic factors, on the national scale, the first industrial location entropy is positively relevant only to potential agricultural productivity; the second industrial entropy is closely connective with the second and three geographic factors. Third industrial entropy is connective with the first and second geographic factors significantly. To a major manufacturing sector, we
analyze the role of geographic factors, finding that the agglomeration of tobacco processing and textile gathered are affected by the first geographic factors, Electronic communications industry is a high-technology-intensive industries, mainly affected by the third geographic factors. Finally, we use resource intensity coefficient representing the mining relative abundance, and the result shows mineral resources abundance is the important factors of spurring industrial specialization, in addition to transportation, water resource.
Chapter VII concludes the whole content, pointing out the deficiencies of the study and further research directions.
第一章为引论，基于人地关系理论、比较优势、新经济增长理论，在Krugman(1993)提出的两大自然基础之上，提出了影响经济增长的三大地理要素，其中自然地理环境为第一地理要素，共包括海拔、坡度、地形起伏度、人生气候指数、水资源适宜度、农业生产潜力；交通和区位为第二地理要素，分别用交通便利性和经济区位来表示；人力资本和研发水平为经济发展的第三地理要素，分别用受教育年限和专利水平来表示。
第二章分析了三大地理要素的时空分布及变化，通过建模，在Arcgis 9.0支持下获取各地级单元的地理要素值，分析了三大地理要素在时空的变化。
第三章为经济增长的地理差异事实，经济增长指标包括经济增长速度、经济增长规模、经济结构和经济效率等，分析了这些指标的时空变化，并通过Gini系数和Wolfson指数、核密度函数分布曲线分析了区域经济的不平衡和极化现象。
第四章为经济发展中地理要素的作用，本文认为三大地理要素是经济发展的三次诱因，自然地理环境对经济发展起了最基本的发展作用，交通便利性和经济区位的作用促使了地理环境对经济影响的改变，新增长理论的人力资本和研发水平是经济发生的内生的动力，是经济发展的第三次诱因。
基于地级单元截面数据分析经济发展同各地理要素的关系，发现影响经济发展的要素并非单一的，而是多样的。在不同尺度上地理要素对经济发展的作用不同，其中在七大区域尺度上发现三次地理要素的作用与经济发展的关系表现为：
(ⅰ)在经济相对落后的西北区和西南区，地理环境相对恶劣，对人类活动一直有较强的限制作用，交通、经济区位和人力资本的作用改善了对人有限制作用。
(ⅱ)经济相对较发达的东北区、京津冀鲁、东部沿海区、南部沿海区，发现良好自然地理环境为农业生产提供了优势条件，引导经济产生第一次分异，随着交通、经济区位和人力资本的提高，自然环境的作用在减小但仍然存在，经济的发展更依赖于受第三平和第二地理要素，人地关系进入了人对地的充分利用阶段。
第五章为区域经济收敛性与地理要素分析，将研究时间划分不同的时段，分析各区域经济的收敛机制及地理要素对经济收敛的影响，并计算了经济增长的稳态值。结果发现：
(ⅰ)在1994～2004年间除西南区域外其它区域都不存在σ收敛，全国尺度上也不存在σ收敛，但选取研究不同的时间段σ收敛也有所变化。
(ⅱ)在七大区域尺度上，对比考虑空间作用前后的经济收敛回归模型，发现1994～2004西北区和西南区的收敛性有所增强，地理间的相互作用使得区域之间的差异变化速度减小，东部沿海区、京津冀鲁区和中部区的经济发散性都增强，即地理间相互作用加大了区域间经济的差异变化速度。
(ⅲ)为探讨地理要素对经济收敛的作用机制，在1999～2004年区域尺度上分析地理要素对经济增长速度的影响，发现七大区域中，第一地理要素中的第一主因子对经济增长作用都为正值，即经济增长发生在地形地貌条件较好的区域，第二主因子对经济增长作用在经济发达的区域像京津冀鲁区、东部沿海区和南部沿海区表现为正值，即优越的自然环境也可为经济增长提供良好的基础。
交通便利性对经济增长起了明显的促进作用。受教育年限对发达地区的经济增长出现负作用，研发水平在东部地区作用最强。
第六章为产业专业化、聚集同地理要素的作用。全国尺度上分析了影响三次产业区位熵的地理要素，发现第一产业区位熵仅与农业生产潜力有正相关作用。第二产业区位熵与第二、三地理要素对有正相关关系。第三产业的区位熵与第一第二地理要素有显著正相关关系。选取主要的制造业部门分析地理要素的作用，发现影响烟草加工聚集和纺织业聚集受第一地理要素影响最大；电子通讯业是高技术密集型产业，与交通、区位以及研发水平和固定资产等因子关系密切，主要是受第三地理要素引导的加工业。最后分析矿产产业这种特殊的资源型产业的产业聚集情况，并以资源强度系数代表了矿业相对丰富程度，发现矿业资源丰富度是促使产业聚集的重要因素，交通、水资源对其影响也很大。
第七章为本文的总结与讨论，对全文的研究进行归纳，并指出了研究中的不足和进一步研究方向。
Economic growth has been a hot issue. Based on the economic growth of three facts: economic diversity, economic convergence, and industry specialization and agglomeration, the paper analyzes the effect of three major geographic factors on these facts.
The first chapter is the overviews about these facts and theories of human-land relationship, comparative advantages, and the new theory of economic growth. Based on the two nature theory of Krugman(1993), the paper proposes three geographic factors of the economic growth: the first geographic factor refers to natural environment, including elevation, slope, undulating topography, human climate index, water resource index, and potential agricultural production; the second geographic factor is traffic and location, which are represented by transport facilitation and economic position respectively; the third geography factors is human capital and R&D level , respectively represented by education years and the level of the patent number.
Chapter II is about by means of acquiring the values of geographic factors of various regions through modeling.
Chapter III develops analysis of the temporal and spatial changes of economic growth. Economic indicators include economic growth rate, economic structure, economic scale and economic efficiency. The paper analyzes regional economic inequality and polarization by calculating the Gini coefficient, Wolfson index and kernel density curve.
Chapter IV presents effects of the three major geographic factors on economic diversity , and concludes that the three geographic factors serve as three inducements of economic development, during which the first geographic factor is basal and elementary, the convenient transportation and economic location can promote the geographic environment and bring the second change of the economic development, new economic growth theory indicates the role of human capital and R&D level, whose function is as endogenous impetus in the process of economic development.
Based on the cross section data, the paper analyzes the relationship between the geographic factor and economic development, and indicates that the factor influencing the economic development is not single but diverse. On different geographic scale the impacts of geographic factors are different.
In seven regions we found three geographic factors having the good relationship between economic developments.
(i) In the Northwest and the Southwest, Central District, the relatively poor region, geographic environment can restrict human activity, but the second geographic factors, transportation and economic position can improve the role of first geographic factors, on the whole the people have a limiting effect.
(ii) In the relatively economic region, such as Beijing-Tianjin - Hebei-Shandong region, and the eastern coastal areas, the southern coastal areas, we found a good natural environment for agricultural production can provided favorable conditions, and guide the economic development, although with the traffic and human capital development, the effect of the natural environment is reduced ,which still exist, economic development mainly dependent on the second and third geographic factors.
In Chapter V which mainly discussed the convergence of regional economy and the analysis of geographic factors, we partitioned the different period, analyzing convergence principle of different economy and the impact of geographic factors on economy convergence, and calculating the steady-state value of economic growth. We can achieve the following results:
(i) From 1994 to 2000, there is no σ convergence phenomenon except in southwest region, neither the whole country. However, in different studying period we will get the different σ convergence result.
(ii) Comparing the economy convergence regression models considering or not considering the spatial effect, we have recognized that from 1994 to 2004 convergence rate of the northwest and southwest region among Seven regions speed up, and Eastern coastal region, Beijing-Tianjin - Hebei-Shandong region and the central region economy showing the divergence of economy with increasing tendency, namely the mutual geographic effect can increase the disparity among different regions.
(iii) In order to explore the function principle of the geography factor on economic convergence, on regional scale from 1999 to 2004, we analyze the impact of geographic factors on the rate of economic growth, finding that in the seven regions, the impact of the first main factor of the first geographic factor on economic growth is positive, namely economic growth in such regions that have the good condition about landform will be better. The impact of the second main factor on economic growth in developed regions like the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei-Shandong region, the Eastern coastal region and Southern coastal region is positive, that is superior in terms of the natural environment can provide a good foundation for economic growth..
Convenient transportation plays an obviously positive role on economic growth. Fixed number of year of Education plays an obviously negative role on economic growth in the developed regions. The impact of Research and Development on the eastern region is strongest.
Chapter VI shows situations of industry specialization and agglomeration and the effects of three geographic factors, on the national scale, the first industrial location entropy is positively relevant only to potential agricultural productivity; the second industrial entropy is closely connective with the second and three geographic factors. Third industrial entropy is connective with the first and second geographic factors significantly. To a major manufacturing sector, we
analyze the role of geographic factors, finding that the agglomeration of tobacco processing and textile gathered are affected by the first geographic factors, Electronic communications industry is a high-technology-intensive industries, mainly affected by the third geographic factors. Finally, we use resource intensity coefficient representing the mining relative abundance, and the result shows mineral resources abundance is the important factors of spurring industrial specialization, in addition to transportation, water resource.
Chapter VII concludes the whole content, pointing out the deficiencies of the study and further research directions.
引文
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