环境约束下区域产业结构优化升级研究
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摘要
长期以来,我国区域产业发展政策以追求高速经济增长为导向,在工业化进程中出现了产业结构重型化与地区间制造业同构的发展趋势,加上农业的工业化过程中生产集约化水平不断提高,使得区域环境保护与治理的压力加大。同时,传统发展观长期的路径依赖导致环境政策服从于经济增长目标,使我国现有环境工作效率极为低下。党的十七大报告提出,要“加快转变经济发展方式,推动产业结构优化升级”,“把建设资源节约型、环境友好型社会放在工业化、现代化发展战略的突出位置”。本文基于“经济发展”代替“经济增长”这一重要的战略转型背景,以具有代表性的长三角地区为例,对环境约束下区域产业结构优化升级问题进行研究,提出产业发展新路径,以实现区域经济又好又快的发展。
论文在前人研究基础上,以新增长理论、新制度经济学理论、产业结构理论、环境经济学相关理论等主流经济学思想以及现代计量经济学、数理统计学等分析方法,分析了我国区域经济发展中基于环境保护和经济增长“共赢”目标的产业结构调整问题。主要内容和结论如下:
(1)构建了一个基于传统比较优势理论扩展的环境保护内生化理论分析框架,通过对环境比较优势理论的完整分析,解释了我国区域发展中的环境经济现象,并以此作为产业结构政策改进的基础。
(2)通过对长三角地区1978年以来三次产业结构变动的过程性描述和最近几年制造业空间变化的规律性认识,以及对1993年以来长三角工业“三废”情况和近些年集约化农业发展的环境影响分析,形成了对区域产业结构与环境变化关系的整体认识。
(3)运用“EKC”检验经典模型判断了长三角经济增长中的环境约束状况,结果表明:上海整体环境约束力强于江浙,而江浙的发达地区又强于全国平均水平,高速经济增长所带来的环境影响促使长三角亟待转变经济发展方式。在此基础上,采用一个改进的多变量双对数回归模型,以上海为例,对经济增长中影响环境质量的规模、结构、技术三大效应进行了多因素分析,结果表明:在两类具有代表性的环境指标变动中,结构效应在环境影响中发挥了重要作用。一般情况下,经济规模是一个比较复杂的宏观变量,人为地控制经济增长速度对环境保护的直接作用并不明显,有时还适得其反;技术是一个政府不宜过度施加直接影响力的微观因素,应主要通过市场来调节;产业结构是政府可以施加影响并有所作为的中观变量,通过宏观调控改变产业投资结构和投资方向,引导微观主体节能减排和能动地发展“两型”产业,应作为宏观调控的重点。运用差额分析法对江苏省工业分行业结构调整的环境影响进一步分析表明,不同行业对资源的需求结构和数量不同,对资源的利用技术存在差异,产业结构低水平重型化是导致区域环境压力的诱因。最后,对结构重型化和制造业同构的环境影响机理进行了分析。
(4)在考虑环境要素的基础上,全面分析了制约区域产业结构的经济与社会发展因素、需求因素、供给因素和国际因素。综合各制约因素的分析认为,产业结构政策主要是一种供给性政策,以提供公共物品的形式来干预经济结构,环境保护与治理需要以市场力量来调节相应的供求与分配关系,但更需以政府力量来解决市场失灵的部分。
(5)对环境约束下国家产业结构与相应环境政策的演变进行了分析,认为国家政策的演变总体上有利于环境——经济系统的可持续发展,出现了经济与环境管理一体化的趋势。但产业结构与环境政策中自上而下的传导模式基本上没有发生变化,这导致了区域政策与国家规划的衔接不够协调,主要由各类政绩考核指标构成的激励与约束机制存在先天不足,不能有效避免产业结构调整与环境保护上的机会主义;地区之间政策协调程度更低,其竞争大于合作,这种由地方政府演化为“经济人”角色所带来的弊端,靠其自身调整是难以克服的。
(6)在总结现有政策的不足和借鉴国际经验的基础上,提出了基于多任务委托——代理链优化的政府管理制度创新,并提出了以高效环保现代农业发展消除农业面源污染、以发展先进制造业消除结构性污染、以现代服务业的发展来推动产业结构高度化等区域产业优化升级的路径选择。
本文最后补充讨论了两类重要的理论和现实问题,一是围绕要素“溢出效应”讨论了环境保护内生化理论的发展,二是结合地方政府竞争因素分析,对环境保护与产业结构优化升级的政府作用机制进行了探讨。论文同时对考虑环境影响的区域产业结构制约因素分析模型化、农业发展中的环境问题、制造业同构中环境因素对产业政策的影响、环境约束影响区域产业竞争力的调查研究等相关命题进行了展望。
China has been targeting the rapid economic growth in the policy of regional industrial development for a long time. It has a trend that the heavy industry developed excessively and manufacturing industry homogeneity in different regions. In addition, the unceasing advance of intensive production in the agricultural industrialization intensifies the pressure of regional environmental protection and pollution control. At the same time, the environment policy has been submitting to the economic growth because of the long-term path-dependency of traditional development concept. Therefore, the efficiency of environmental protection is extremely low now. The report of the 17th national congress of the CCP proposed that we must speed up the transformation of economic development way and promote the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure. It also proposed that we must attach great importance to building a resource saving and pro-environmental society in the development strategy of industrialization and modernization. This dissertation studies the optimization and upgrading of regional industrial structure under the environmental constraint, and proposes the new path of industrial development in order to realize the great and fast development of regional economic. The study is under the background of important strategic transformation from economic growth to economic development, and this dissertation takes Yangtze River Delta as an example, the most representative region of China.
Based on the previous studies, the dissertation analyses the industrial restructuring aiming mutual benefit between the environmental protection and economic growth in regional economic development of China by ways of related mainstream theories such as new growth theories, new institutional economics theories, industrial structure theories, environmental economics, modern econometrics and mathematical statistics. The following is the main content and conclusions of the dissertation.
Firstly, the dissertation constructs a theoretical analysis framework of endogenous environmental protection based on the theory expansion of traditional comparative advantages. Through the integrated analysis on the theory of environment comparative advantage, it explains the phenomenon of environment economy in the regional development of China, and takes it as a foundation for improving the policy of industrial structure.
Secondly, the dissertation forms a overall cognizance on the relationship between the regional industrial structure and environment variation through the description on changes of the structure of three industrial sectors since 1978 and the systematic understanding on the spatial variation of the manufacturing industry in recent years, through the analysis of environmental impact taken by the industrial "three wastes" and the development of the intensive agriculture in the Yangtze River Delta since 1993.
Thirdly, the dissertation judges the environmental constraints in the economic growth in the Yangtze River Delta by using a classic model of EKC. The results shows that Shanghai is better than Jiangsu and Zhejiang in the whole environmental constraints, and the developed areas of Jiangsu and Zhejiang are better than the the national average. The environmental impact taken by high-speed economic growth call for the change of economic development approach in the Yangtze River Delta. On this basis, taking Shanghai as the example, it carries on a multi-factor analysis on three effects of scale, structure and technology which influences the environment quality in economic growth by ways of a improved dual multiple log linear regression model. The result shows that the structural effect has played an important role in the environmental impact in the change of two representative environmental indicators. Generally speaking, the economic scale is a quite complicated macroeconomic variable. The effect of environmental protection is not obvious by controlling the rate of economic growth artificially, sometimes it is against. The technology is a micro-factor which the government is not suitable to impact excessively and directly. It should be regulated through the market. The industrial structure is a mid-scale variable which the government can influence successfully. It will be the emphasis of macro-manipulation that changing the structure and direction of investment, and guiding the micro-economic entities to save the energy and reduce the pollution emission, also to develop resource-saving and pro-environmental industries actively.The dissertation carries on a further study on the environmental effect taken by the sub-sectors structural adjustment of the industry in Jiangsu province with the method of variance analysis. The result shows that the structure and quantity of the resource demands are diverse in different sectors, and the technologies of resources use are also different. The heavy industry develops at a low level cause the pressure of the regional environment. In the end of this chapter, it studies the mechanism of the impact on environment because of the excessively development of the heavy industry and homogeneity of the manufacturing industry.
Fourthly, the dissertation comprehensively analyses the factors of the economy and society development, requests, supplies and international that constrains the regional industrial structure based on environment factor. Through taking all constraint factors the analysis considers that the policy of industrial structure is principally a supply policy, and it interferes with the economic structure through affording public goods. The environmental protection and pollution control need the market to regulate the corresponding relations between supplies and demands and the distribution, but it need more for the government to resolve some failure of the market.
Fifthly, the dissertation analyses the evolution of the policies of national industrial structure and the corresponding environment under the environmental constraint. It thinks that the evolution of national policy conducives to the sustainable development as a whole between the environment and economy, and the trend that the integration of economy and environment management comes. But the conduction mode from top to bottom between policies of industrial structure and environment don't change basically, so it results that the regional policies and national plans are not well coordinated. The incentive and restraint mechanisms made of mainly the various indicators of performance evaluation is congenitally deficient, so it can't effectively avoid the opportunism on the industrial structure adjustment and environmental protection. The policy coordination is lower and the competition is more than cooperation among districts. The defect caused by the role evolution from local government to economic Man is insurmountable on its own adjustment.
Sixthly, on the basis of summing up the inadequacy of existing policies and drawing the international experiences, the dissertation puts forward the government management system innovation based on optimization of the commissioned-acting chain. The dissertation also puts forward the path of regional industrial structure optimization and upgrading .It includes eliminating agricultural non-point source pollution with efficient and environmental modern agriculture, eliminating the structural pollution with the development of the advanced manufacturing, promoting industrial structure with modem service industries.
Finally, the dissertation discusses two important theoretical and practical issues as a supplement. First, it discusses the theory of endogenous environmental protection round the spillover effect of elements. Second, it discusses the phenomenon that the competition of local governments will impact the environmental protection and the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure. At the same time, the dissertation prospects for the following problems, such as analysis model of constraint factors of regional industrial structure, environmental issues in agricultural development ,the impact to the industrial policy by the environmental factors in the manufacturing structure homogeneity, the impact to regional industrial competition caused by environmental constraints.
论文在前人研究基础上,以新增长理论、新制度经济学理论、产业结构理论、环境经济学相关理论等主流经济学思想以及现代计量经济学、数理统计学等分析方法,分析了我国区域经济发展中基于环境保护和经济增长“共赢”目标的产业结构调整问题。主要内容和结论如下:
(1)构建了一个基于传统比较优势理论扩展的环境保护内生化理论分析框架,通过对环境比较优势理论的完整分析,解释了我国区域发展中的环境经济现象,并以此作为产业结构政策改进的基础。
(2)通过对长三角地区1978年以来三次产业结构变动的过程性描述和最近几年制造业空间变化的规律性认识,以及对1993年以来长三角工业“三废”情况和近些年集约化农业发展的环境影响分析,形成了对区域产业结构与环境变化关系的整体认识。
(3)运用“EKC”检验经典模型判断了长三角经济增长中的环境约束状况,结果表明:上海整体环境约束力强于江浙,而江浙的发达地区又强于全国平均水平,高速经济增长所带来的环境影响促使长三角亟待转变经济发展方式。在此基础上,采用一个改进的多变量双对数回归模型,以上海为例,对经济增长中影响环境质量的规模、结构、技术三大效应进行了多因素分析,结果表明:在两类具有代表性的环境指标变动中,结构效应在环境影响中发挥了重要作用。一般情况下,经济规模是一个比较复杂的宏观变量,人为地控制经济增长速度对环境保护的直接作用并不明显,有时还适得其反;技术是一个政府不宜过度施加直接影响力的微观因素,应主要通过市场来调节;产业结构是政府可以施加影响并有所作为的中观变量,通过宏观调控改变产业投资结构和投资方向,引导微观主体节能减排和能动地发展“两型”产业,应作为宏观调控的重点。运用差额分析法对江苏省工业分行业结构调整的环境影响进一步分析表明,不同行业对资源的需求结构和数量不同,对资源的利用技术存在差异,产业结构低水平重型化是导致区域环境压力的诱因。最后,对结构重型化和制造业同构的环境影响机理进行了分析。
(4)在考虑环境要素的基础上,全面分析了制约区域产业结构的经济与社会发展因素、需求因素、供给因素和国际因素。综合各制约因素的分析认为,产业结构政策主要是一种供给性政策,以提供公共物品的形式来干预经济结构,环境保护与治理需要以市场力量来调节相应的供求与分配关系,但更需以政府力量来解决市场失灵的部分。
(5)对环境约束下国家产业结构与相应环境政策的演变进行了分析,认为国家政策的演变总体上有利于环境——经济系统的可持续发展,出现了经济与环境管理一体化的趋势。但产业结构与环境政策中自上而下的传导模式基本上没有发生变化,这导致了区域政策与国家规划的衔接不够协调,主要由各类政绩考核指标构成的激励与约束机制存在先天不足,不能有效避免产业结构调整与环境保护上的机会主义;地区之间政策协调程度更低,其竞争大于合作,这种由地方政府演化为“经济人”角色所带来的弊端,靠其自身调整是难以克服的。
(6)在总结现有政策的不足和借鉴国际经验的基础上,提出了基于多任务委托——代理链优化的政府管理制度创新,并提出了以高效环保现代农业发展消除农业面源污染、以发展先进制造业消除结构性污染、以现代服务业的发展来推动产业结构高度化等区域产业优化升级的路径选择。
本文最后补充讨论了两类重要的理论和现实问题,一是围绕要素“溢出效应”讨论了环境保护内生化理论的发展,二是结合地方政府竞争因素分析,对环境保护与产业结构优化升级的政府作用机制进行了探讨。论文同时对考虑环境影响的区域产业结构制约因素分析模型化、农业发展中的环境问题、制造业同构中环境因素对产业政策的影响、环境约束影响区域产业竞争力的调查研究等相关命题进行了展望。
China has been targeting the rapid economic growth in the policy of regional industrial development for a long time. It has a trend that the heavy industry developed excessively and manufacturing industry homogeneity in different regions. In addition, the unceasing advance of intensive production in the agricultural industrialization intensifies the pressure of regional environmental protection and pollution control. At the same time, the environment policy has been submitting to the economic growth because of the long-term path-dependency of traditional development concept. Therefore, the efficiency of environmental protection is extremely low now. The report of the 17th national congress of the CCP proposed that we must speed up the transformation of economic development way and promote the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure. It also proposed that we must attach great importance to building a resource saving and pro-environmental society in the development strategy of industrialization and modernization. This dissertation studies the optimization and upgrading of regional industrial structure under the environmental constraint, and proposes the new path of industrial development in order to realize the great and fast development of regional economic. The study is under the background of important strategic transformation from economic growth to economic development, and this dissertation takes Yangtze River Delta as an example, the most representative region of China.
Based on the previous studies, the dissertation analyses the industrial restructuring aiming mutual benefit between the environmental protection and economic growth in regional economic development of China by ways of related mainstream theories such as new growth theories, new institutional economics theories, industrial structure theories, environmental economics, modern econometrics and mathematical statistics. The following is the main content and conclusions of the dissertation.
Firstly, the dissertation constructs a theoretical analysis framework of endogenous environmental protection based on the theory expansion of traditional comparative advantages. Through the integrated analysis on the theory of environment comparative advantage, it explains the phenomenon of environment economy in the regional development of China, and takes it as a foundation for improving the policy of industrial structure.
Secondly, the dissertation forms a overall cognizance on the relationship between the regional industrial structure and environment variation through the description on changes of the structure of three industrial sectors since 1978 and the systematic understanding on the spatial variation of the manufacturing industry in recent years, through the analysis of environmental impact taken by the industrial "three wastes" and the development of the intensive agriculture in the Yangtze River Delta since 1993.
Thirdly, the dissertation judges the environmental constraints in the economic growth in the Yangtze River Delta by using a classic model of EKC. The results shows that Shanghai is better than Jiangsu and Zhejiang in the whole environmental constraints, and the developed areas of Jiangsu and Zhejiang are better than the the national average. The environmental impact taken by high-speed economic growth call for the change of economic development approach in the Yangtze River Delta. On this basis, taking Shanghai as the example, it carries on a multi-factor analysis on three effects of scale, structure and technology which influences the environment quality in economic growth by ways of a improved dual multiple log linear regression model. The result shows that the structural effect has played an important role in the environmental impact in the change of two representative environmental indicators. Generally speaking, the economic scale is a quite complicated macroeconomic variable. The effect of environmental protection is not obvious by controlling the rate of economic growth artificially, sometimes it is against. The technology is a micro-factor which the government is not suitable to impact excessively and directly. It should be regulated through the market. The industrial structure is a mid-scale variable which the government can influence successfully. It will be the emphasis of macro-manipulation that changing the structure and direction of investment, and guiding the micro-economic entities to save the energy and reduce the pollution emission, also to develop resource-saving and pro-environmental industries actively.The dissertation carries on a further study on the environmental effect taken by the sub-sectors structural adjustment of the industry in Jiangsu province with the method of variance analysis. The result shows that the structure and quantity of the resource demands are diverse in different sectors, and the technologies of resources use are also different. The heavy industry develops at a low level cause the pressure of the regional environment. In the end of this chapter, it studies the mechanism of the impact on environment because of the excessively development of the heavy industry and homogeneity of the manufacturing industry.
Fourthly, the dissertation comprehensively analyses the factors of the economy and society development, requests, supplies and international that constrains the regional industrial structure based on environment factor. Through taking all constraint factors the analysis considers that the policy of industrial structure is principally a supply policy, and it interferes with the economic structure through affording public goods. The environmental protection and pollution control need the market to regulate the corresponding relations between supplies and demands and the distribution, but it need more for the government to resolve some failure of the market.
Fifthly, the dissertation analyses the evolution of the policies of national industrial structure and the corresponding environment under the environmental constraint. It thinks that the evolution of national policy conducives to the sustainable development as a whole between the environment and economy, and the trend that the integration of economy and environment management comes. But the conduction mode from top to bottom between policies of industrial structure and environment don't change basically, so it results that the regional policies and national plans are not well coordinated. The incentive and restraint mechanisms made of mainly the various indicators of performance evaluation is congenitally deficient, so it can't effectively avoid the opportunism on the industrial structure adjustment and environmental protection. The policy coordination is lower and the competition is more than cooperation among districts. The defect caused by the role evolution from local government to economic Man is insurmountable on its own adjustment.
Sixthly, on the basis of summing up the inadequacy of existing policies and drawing the international experiences, the dissertation puts forward the government management system innovation based on optimization of the commissioned-acting chain. The dissertation also puts forward the path of regional industrial structure optimization and upgrading .It includes eliminating agricultural non-point source pollution with efficient and environmental modern agriculture, eliminating the structural pollution with the development of the advanced manufacturing, promoting industrial structure with modem service industries.
Finally, the dissertation discusses two important theoretical and practical issues as a supplement. First, it discusses the theory of endogenous environmental protection round the spillover effect of elements. Second, it discusses the phenomenon that the competition of local governments will impact the environmental protection and the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure. At the same time, the dissertation prospects for the following problems, such as analysis model of constraint factors of regional industrial structure, environmental issues in agricultural development ,the impact to the industrial policy by the environmental factors in the manufacturing structure homogeneity, the impact to regional industrial competition caused by environmental constraints.
引文
5 根据广义定义可将环境产业分为六类:Ⅰ.公共型环境设施。用于公共环境破坏的控制、治理和恢复;Ⅱ.企业的末端污染控制和治理设施:Ⅲ.洁净生产技术(clear production technology),又称环境安全技术(environmental sound technology);Ⅳ.企业的洁净产品(clear products),又称绿色产品(green products);Ⅴ.环境服务业,即提供环境信息、环境咨询、环境监测、环境诉讼、环境商务、环境工程设计与施工、环境休闲旅游等服务业务;Ⅵ.国际环境贸易,属于第Ⅴ类的环境商务内容,但由于它是在国际层面进行,因而具有特殊意义。参见:徐嵩龄.论环境产业对国民经济的带动作用:发达国家的历史经验与中国的政策选择[J].管理世界,1999(5):98-99,106-110.
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