中国增值税扩围改革效应研究
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摘要
自1954年法国成功引入增值税之后,增值税以独特的中性魅力迅速风靡全球,至今已被150多个国家和地区所引进。增值税在我国经历了一个不断发展和完善的过程,20年来一直是我国的主体税种。但由于历史原因,目前我国增值税征收范围仍然过窄,不能做到“一税贯通”,极大地影响其中性优势的发挥,逐步扩大征收范围一直是我国增值税的改革目标。随着我国经济结构的优化和实施结构性减税的需要,中央于2012年1月1日在上海开始了增值税扩围改革试点工作,将重复征税比较严重的交通运输业和部分现代服务业纳入增值税的征税范围。一年多来,试点工作进展顺利,取得了积极效果,大部分企业实现了减税效应,受到了众多企业的欢迎。
在此基础上,中央决定2013年8月1日起在全国推行增值税扩围改革。本文主要探讨上海方案是否可以推广全国,以及上海方案推广到全国后需要解决的问题,并依据上海增值税扩围改革方案测算全国施行增值税扩围改革后对国家财政收入、行业税负、经济增长的影响,通过测算来反映增值税扩围改革是否有利于结构性减税目标的实现以及促进现代服务业的发展和我国产业结构的优化升级。为此,本文展开了如下研究：
简要地回顾我国增值税试点、全面实施和转型过程,并对不同历史时期增值税的运行情况及存在的问题和改革内容做了剖析,同时参考增值税的先行国家“现代型增值税”的实践,论证了我国增值税扩围改革的必要性和可行性。
根据经济学和税收学理论以及增值税、营业税制度设置,从理论上揭示了增值税和营业税在财政收入、企业税负以及对企业生产经营结构影响等方面的差异；分析了营业税与增值税并行对增值税的负面影响；探讨了增值税扩围改革对我国筹集财政资金、行业税负以及促进我国经济增长方面的影响。
依据上海增值税扩围改革方案,运用投入产出法对上海方案推广全国后对行业税负和财政收入的影响进行测算。测算结果表明：一是扩围改革后各行业的税负变化有增有减,但以税负下降为主,其中工业税负的下降幅度主要集中在1%-2%之间,服务行业税负变化幅度主要集中在-3%-3%之间；二是扩围在整体上将导致财政收入减少,其中扩围行业财政收入减收约910亿元；三是整体财政效应和行业减税效应将对我国经济增长产生显著的正向影响。
选取内地除西藏之外的30个省级行政区,时间跨度从2001年到2011年的数据,通过构建增值税、营业税与经济增长的关系模型,使用我国近11年税收和经济增长的面板数据研究了增值税和营业税以及增值税扩围对我国经济增长的影响。结果发现,增值税的影响程度从扩围前的16.51%增加至扩围后的44.11%,扩围前营业税和增值税共同对经济增长的影响只有33.67%,表明增值税扩围对我国的经济增长起到了显著的正向影响关系。
根据上述研究结果和增值税扩围改革将面临的难点,总结了我国增值税扩围改革应遵循的原则,以及在实际操作中对财政收入分配、扩围行业选择、税率设计等方面提出了具体建议。
Since France has introduced value-added tax (VAT)1954, the VAT, which has been used by more than150countries and regions so and swept the globe with the charm of neutrality quickly. VAT, a major tax in China for the past20years, has experienced the process of continuous development and improvement. However, due to historical reasons, the taxation scope of China's VAT is so narrow that it greatly affects the play of its advantage. The objective of China's VAT reform has been gradually expanding the taxation scope of VAT. With the optimization of China's economic structure and needs of implementing structural tax cuts, the central government has decided that the country will start replacing its turnover tax with VAT in the transport sector and some service sectors in Shanghai starting from Jan1. More than a year, the reform pilot has gone smoothly and achieved positive results, and most of the businesses enjoys tax cuts and welcome the reform.
Based on this, the central government decided to spread the reform to the whole country from Aug1. This paper mainly discusses whether the Shanghai program can be extended to the whole country, the problems to be solved after Shanghai program extend to the country, and the effect on fiscal revenue, industry tax burden, economic growth after the nationwide implementation of VAT expansion on the basis of Shanghai VAT reform program. The paper also analyses whether the reform is conducive to the goals of structural tax reduction and the promotion of the development of modern service industry and the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure in China. To this end, the paper launches a study as follows:
A brief review of the pilot reform, the full implementation and transition process, the throughout analysis of the operation and the problems and reform content in different historical periods, and the demonstration of the necessity and feasibility of VAT expansion reform with reference to the practice of Modern type VAT in some countries.
Theoretical reveal of the difference of VAT and business tax on fiscal revenue,corporate tax burden, as well as the structural impact on enterprise production and management on basis of economic and tax theory, as well as system settings of value-added tax and business tax; exploration of the impact on raising financial capital, industry tax burden as well as promoting economic growth after VAT expansion in China.
Estimation of the nationwide impact on the industry tax burden and fiscal revenue based on the Shanghai VAT expansion reform program by the use of input-output method. It turns out that:Firstly, the industry tax burden varies, but mainly falls industrial tax burden decrease about1%-2%, the service tax burden changes between-3%-3%; Secondly, fiscal revenue will decrease, of which in pilot industry by about910billion yuan; Thirdly, overall financial effect and industry tax relief will have a significant positive impact on China's economic growth.
Selection of30provincial-level administrative region except Tibet of Mainland China from2001to2011. By constructing the relational model of the value-added tax, business tax and economic growth, study of the impact of VAT and business tax and VAT expansion reform on China's economic growth by use of China's nearly11years of tax and economic growth panel data. It was found that the degree of the impact of the VAT increases from16.51%to44.11%, while the impact of VAT and business tax before pilot reform stands33.67%, indicating that the VAT expansion reform has played a significant positive role on China's economic growth.
According to the results of the study and the difficulties faced by VAT expansion reform, the paper summarizes the principles of VAT expansion reform, and puts forward specific suggestion on the distribution of revenues selection of expansion industry, rate design and other aspects.
在此基础上,中央决定2013年8月1日起在全国推行增值税扩围改革。本文主要探讨上海方案是否可以推广全国,以及上海方案推广到全国后需要解决的问题,并依据上海增值税扩围改革方案测算全国施行增值税扩围改革后对国家财政收入、行业税负、经济增长的影响,通过测算来反映增值税扩围改革是否有利于结构性减税目标的实现以及促进现代服务业的发展和我国产业结构的优化升级。为此,本文展开了如下研究：
简要地回顾我国增值税试点、全面实施和转型过程,并对不同历史时期增值税的运行情况及存在的问题和改革内容做了剖析,同时参考增值税的先行国家“现代型增值税”的实践,论证了我国增值税扩围改革的必要性和可行性。
根据经济学和税收学理论以及增值税、营业税制度设置,从理论上揭示了增值税和营业税在财政收入、企业税负以及对企业生产经营结构影响等方面的差异；分析了营业税与增值税并行对增值税的负面影响；探讨了增值税扩围改革对我国筹集财政资金、行业税负以及促进我国经济增长方面的影响。
依据上海增值税扩围改革方案,运用投入产出法对上海方案推广全国后对行业税负和财政收入的影响进行测算。测算结果表明：一是扩围改革后各行业的税负变化有增有减,但以税负下降为主,其中工业税负的下降幅度主要集中在1%-2%之间,服务行业税负变化幅度主要集中在-3%-3%之间；二是扩围在整体上将导致财政收入减少,其中扩围行业财政收入减收约910亿元；三是整体财政效应和行业减税效应将对我国经济增长产生显著的正向影响。
选取内地除西藏之外的30个省级行政区,时间跨度从2001年到2011年的数据,通过构建增值税、营业税与经济增长的关系模型,使用我国近11年税收和经济增长的面板数据研究了增值税和营业税以及增值税扩围对我国经济增长的影响。结果发现,增值税的影响程度从扩围前的16.51%增加至扩围后的44.11%,扩围前营业税和增值税共同对经济增长的影响只有33.67%,表明增值税扩围对我国的经济增长起到了显著的正向影响关系。
根据上述研究结果和增值税扩围改革将面临的难点,总结了我国增值税扩围改革应遵循的原则,以及在实际操作中对财政收入分配、扩围行业选择、税率设计等方面提出了具体建议。
Since France has introduced value-added tax (VAT)1954, the VAT, which has been used by more than150countries and regions so and swept the globe with the charm of neutrality quickly. VAT, a major tax in China for the past20years, has experienced the process of continuous development and improvement. However, due to historical reasons, the taxation scope of China's VAT is so narrow that it greatly affects the play of its advantage. The objective of China's VAT reform has been gradually expanding the taxation scope of VAT. With the optimization of China's economic structure and needs of implementing structural tax cuts, the central government has decided that the country will start replacing its turnover tax with VAT in the transport sector and some service sectors in Shanghai starting from Jan1. More than a year, the reform pilot has gone smoothly and achieved positive results, and most of the businesses enjoys tax cuts and welcome the reform.
Based on this, the central government decided to spread the reform to the whole country from Aug1. This paper mainly discusses whether the Shanghai program can be extended to the whole country, the problems to be solved after Shanghai program extend to the country, and the effect on fiscal revenue, industry tax burden, economic growth after the nationwide implementation of VAT expansion on the basis of Shanghai VAT reform program. The paper also analyses whether the reform is conducive to the goals of structural tax reduction and the promotion of the development of modern service industry and the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure in China. To this end, the paper launches a study as follows:
A brief review of the pilot reform, the full implementation and transition process, the throughout analysis of the operation and the problems and reform content in different historical periods, and the demonstration of the necessity and feasibility of VAT expansion reform with reference to the practice of Modern type VAT in some countries.
Theoretical reveal of the difference of VAT and business tax on fiscal revenue,corporate tax burden, as well as the structural impact on enterprise production and management on basis of economic and tax theory, as well as system settings of value-added tax and business tax; exploration of the impact on raising financial capital, industry tax burden as well as promoting economic growth after VAT expansion in China.
Estimation of the nationwide impact on the industry tax burden and fiscal revenue based on the Shanghai VAT expansion reform program by the use of input-output method. It turns out that:Firstly, the industry tax burden varies, but mainly falls industrial tax burden decrease about1%-2%, the service tax burden changes between-3%-3%; Secondly, fiscal revenue will decrease, of which in pilot industry by about910billion yuan; Thirdly, overall financial effect and industry tax relief will have a significant positive impact on China's economic growth.
Selection of30provincial-level administrative region except Tibet of Mainland China from2001to2011. By constructing the relational model of the value-added tax, business tax and economic growth, study of the impact of VAT and business tax and VAT expansion reform on China's economic growth by use of China's nearly11years of tax and economic growth panel data. It was found that the degree of the impact of the VAT increases from16.51%to44.11%, while the impact of VAT and business tax before pilot reform stands33.67%, indicating that the VAT expansion reform has played a significant positive role on China's economic growth.
According to the results of the study and the difficulties faced by VAT expansion reform, the paper summarizes the principles of VAT expansion reform, and puts forward specific suggestion on the distribution of revenues selection of expansion industry, rate design and other aspects.
引文
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