铜资源风险投资研究
摘要
作为世界第一铜消费国,在国际贸易中,定价话语权的缺失使我国国民经济不得不承受国际市场投机炒作,付出经济发展严重的成本损失。如何整合力量,争取国际话语权,已经成为我国经济可持续发展的现阶段最重要任务之一。
针对这些问题,本文认为：引入铜资源风险产业投资基金直接参与铜矿石国际贸易谈判争夺话语权,即维护了我国经济发展的稳定性与权益性,又按照现有国际规则增强了谈判砝码,免受国际炒家的恶性敲诈。这种投融资制度可以合理分离我国铜行业上中游企业,优化铜行业产业结构,聚集社会资金投资于铜行业项目,推动国际性矿业资本市场的建立,扩大我国铜行业的整体国际竞争实力,进而产生惠及相关产业产生连锁反应效果,是解决当前发展瓶颈的很好设想。本文核心问题是设计铜资源风险产业投资基金的治理结构、内部激励机制、盈利运行机制以及风险防范策略,进而提出建立以公募方式成立的矿资源产业基金和以私募方式成立的各种铜矿资源风险产业投资基金组成的纽带式资金投资结构的规划,将各方面资源统筹纳入国家矿资源战略,推动我国矿业产业整体升级,不断提高国际竞争能力,这对于实现国民经济健康持续发展目标是十分有益的创举。
Copper is the kind of metal that was recognized and used earliest by human, and it owns the deepest influence towards human's culture among all the used materials. In the periodic system of elements, copper is in the same family with gold and silver, which brings it the similar super physical properties and chemical properties with noble metal, that is, good plasticity, easy to be processed, corrosion resistant, antimagnetic, attractive and durable. The most important point is that copper is the best material for electrical conductivity and thermal conductivity except silver. Therefore, copper is widely used as the best electrical conductor and thermal conductor, because that silver is very expensive. Copper industry plays an important role in national economy. There is a high relational degree between copper industry and other industries. There are 124 industries in our country, among which 113 departments uses copper product. The consumption of copper is only less than aluminum among all materials of non ferrous metal. Copper is an important raw material of modern industry. Although that the output of refined copper is the first in the world, the reserve of copper resources is only seven in the world. What makes thing worse, most of the copper ore deposits are middle size and small size, which means that there are only a little bit of them is large size. At present, the internationalization of the supply of our country's copper resources is inevitable, whose dependency on the international market of raw material is more and more. Any change of prices of copper ore in the international trade will be an unsteady factor of economical development. Hence, our country should have strategic deployment in order to make sure the supply of plenty of raw material. It not only relates to the economical development but also the national security.
I. Features of Market Supply and Demand
Under the frame of WTO and the economic integration whose character is globalization, privatization, liberalization and marketization, the transnational enterprises of mining industry have improved its influence and controlling force in the whole world towards the market through large scale of merger and purchase, which improves the concentration ratio of mineral resources. In recent years, the number of middle-sized mining industry company is decreased but the scale of those companies is becoming larger and larger, which will result in a situation of oligopoly market in the supply of mineral resources. The consumption demands of important mineral resources is improving rapidly, the world stocks is decreased in a large quantity and the cost of discovery of mineral resources is increased by a wide margin, all those abovementioned factors have given more initiative and control power, and the market structure is changes into seller's market form buyer's market. Under the market structure of oligopoly market of mineral resources seller's, it will be very easy for the producer to form price uniformity, which will give them the absolute power of pricing mechanism.
II. Factors that Influenced Price
As a kind of special raw material, copper does not only owns the properties of industry product, but also the properties of financial investment. On the one hand, viewed from the relationship of supply and demand, the consumption of copper is intimately related to the growth of population and area's ecological development, which will increased follows the steps of the growth of population and the basic consumer of copper. However, they are not increased synchronously and linear, instead, it is decided by the industrialization time of each area.
The changes of ratio data of copper consumption in each country in recent years shows that Chinese ratio is increased rapidly and the traditional consumption country such as America, Japan and European countries all decreases in some degree. The ration of developing countries is increased rapidly, the BRICs are the typical countries, which brings the second rapidly development of copper industry. On the other hand, from the contrastive analysis between the copper price and us dollars in the past twenty four years, the index of negative correlation between copper price and us dollars in the most years has been more than 50%, and even more than 60% in some years. The substantially increase of global trade has played an important role in the change of copper price, which included but not limited to the US Central Bank and Chinese Central Bank, most countries' currency authorities have put many currency supply in it. The good mobility has intensified the financial properties of copper, which increases the time and range of advancement in copper price.
The market price of copper is the result of the combined action of those two factors. The main index of industry property is the indentation of supply and demand, and the main index of financial property is US dollars. The historical data shows that the increase of copper price can be achieved by the resonance of the abovementioned two factors. However, the decrease of copper price can be caused by the resonance of the two factors or by one of the main factors.
III. Price Negotiation of International Trade
At present, there are two main patterns of international copper ore:one is spot trading(trading ore) and the other is long termed contracted ore(contracted ore).The main trading pattern of cooper ore is fixed long termed contract before 80s of 20 century, whose term is more than two years. The contracted processing charge is divided into fixed processing charge and changeable processing charged that according to the situation. The mine takes long termed contract financing to exploit new mine. In the later period of 80s, the intervention of large institutional investor and business bank makes it possible that mineral industry can improve its financing ability by merger instead the long termed contract of buyer of copper ore. Therefore, the long termed contracted pattern has been replaced by the annual negotiation of copper ore price. The negotiation of copper ore is similar with copper ore in some degree. The world copper resource is mainly in Chile, America, Zambia, Russia, Peru and so on, whereas the copper reserve in Chile is 1/3 of the world's, while the ore right is mainly controlled by international mineral industrious magnates, such as BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto Group and Free port. At present, the negotiation of Chinese copper ore is leading by a copper enterprise named CSPT. In the year of 2003, the national copper industrious magnate such as Tongling Non Ferrous Metals Company, Yunan Copper Group and Jiangxi Copper Industry, initiated and founded China Smelters Purchase Team, which is known as CSPT. It buys refined copper mine together. This association has included the eight copper enterprises. (CSPT is a whole entity to the outside. As to inner part, it mainly ruled by the business self-regulation, the one that disobeys the rules will be denounced inside, and there is no forced punishment towards the breach of promise. Therefore, the CSPT is actually a loosen association. As to the actual result, the association does not work at all, because its member negotiated separately for the insight profit. The international trading system of copper ore in our country is still in a state of disunity.
IV. Option of Competition Strategy
"what needed by China will increase in price in international market", which is the common knowledge of international market trade of commodity future. Those large amount of goods as petroleum, iron, copper, aluminum, rubber, sugar, cotton, bean have been advanced in price rapidly in recent years, which have been obstructed the development of our country's economy and our country has been the first sufferer of such increase of price. As the first consumer of cooper in the world, the national economy of our country have to accept the speculation of international market because of the lack of setting price, so that there are more cost than it is in the economical development. The Poter's five forces in copetition shows that the price negotiation ability of enterprise or industry towards the supplier is decided by the centralization, and the higer will be in a advantage. The world's copper ore supplier is monopolized by oligarch considered in the aspects of indusry centralization. In the aspect of industrial concentration, copper ore supplier in the world occupy an oligopolistic position. Copper ore suppliers dominate more than 70% the global trade in copper ore. Because of the high dispersion of copper industries in China, even the formation of alliances can not change the fact that and copper industries in our country can not compare with that of the global ones. Only by mergers and acquisitions of domestic copper industries to change the high dispersion of copper industries, and let them go their own way, to quote to the suppliers dispersedly, even to take the initiative to drive up prices is very difficult. To construct strong-strong game mode, you must find the answer through innovation, financial supply chain and the production chain. The introduction of industrial investment funds which are financing models to participate in international negotiations between the copper ore increased bargaining power.
V.Risk fund
The investment and financing system of copper venture capital industry fund is of great strategic significance to get directly involved in international copper ore trade negotiations to compete for voice, to maintain the stability and equity of China's economic development, to enhance powerful negotiations with existing international rules, against international speculators vicious extortion. On systems, through the rational division of labor, stripping purchasing power of copper ore industry, to make joint investment into Smelting Plant Industry Investment Fund on all mineral resources. On the one hand,it can increase copper ore international bargaining power and lower the production cost of steel copper industry, which contribute to the healthy development of steel copper; the other hand, it can stop the use of relatively large domestic monopoly advantage Smelting Plant, through the stir copper ore prices, harm the interests of the industry practice of short-term and partial interests, let them return to production processes, improve efficiency through management, through new product development to achieve industry upgrading, Smelting industry also true colors. On choice in financing, we should set up the mineral resources industry established by public offering, and the establishment of funds through private placement of various mineral resources, industry funds in venture capital investment bond-type structure, which will co-ordinate all resources and mineral resources into national strategies, promote the upgrading of mining industry as a whole to improve international competitiveness. To ensure the efficient operation of the Foundation, we must establish effective separation of the four powers administry structure of ownership, decision-making power, the right to supervise and manage, set up functional departments properly to establish sound risk control and establish and improve risk control and investment decision-making mechanisms, ensure that the information disclosure system to protect the general interests of investors. To eliminate the risk of information asymmetry, reduce agency costs, fund companies should establish a good agent incentive system which will integrate the interests of both sides. While leverage the use of wealth maximizing investor interests, it should be ensured that the company has a potential key personnel without the loss of talent and strengthen the core competitiveness of the building. Therefore fund corporations establish different organization for effective encouragement according to the different professional positions and hierarchy of needs. The higher the risk of long-term positions is, receive the higher incentive it receives. Since copper is a venture capital industry, risk control determines the direction of future development. Risk management is in fact the management process which change risk into a profit and is also a pre-management, the stronger the risk management is, the greater ability to take risks is, the more advantage development has. Risk management and profitability go hand in hand. While conducting a comprehensive risk management, Management focus should be put on copper ore in the international trade settlement risk arising from currency exchange rates, the risks of trade turnover, interest rate risk arising from buy-back bonds and the risk of risk investment and so forth. Prevention, spread, transfer, hedging, portfolio strategy of compensation to control risk within tolerable limits ensure the profitability of the fund sustainable and healthy development.
In addition, when the state carries out the policy of industry investment fund for strategic layout, it should emphasis on key industries. And it should control the development rhythm without blindness, either too much or too fast will result adverse consequences. The Fund's operation must be combined our international standards with the world. Our state is supposed to search for innovation under international rules, according to economic laws, and strengthen external supervision to ensure the standardization of operating funds. In conclusion, the government should actively guide, and give support to institutional, legal, tax to encourage their development.
针对这些问题,本文认为：引入铜资源风险产业投资基金直接参与铜矿石国际贸易谈判争夺话语权,即维护了我国经济发展的稳定性与权益性,又按照现有国际规则增强了谈判砝码,免受国际炒家的恶性敲诈。这种投融资制度可以合理分离我国铜行业上中游企业,优化铜行业产业结构,聚集社会资金投资于铜行业项目,推动国际性矿业资本市场的建立,扩大我国铜行业的整体国际竞争实力,进而产生惠及相关产业产生连锁反应效果,是解决当前发展瓶颈的很好设想。本文核心问题是设计铜资源风险产业投资基金的治理结构、内部激励机制、盈利运行机制以及风险防范策略,进而提出建立以公募方式成立的矿资源产业基金和以私募方式成立的各种铜矿资源风险产业投资基金组成的纽带式资金投资结构的规划,将各方面资源统筹纳入国家矿资源战略,推动我国矿业产业整体升级,不断提高国际竞争能力,这对于实现国民经济健康持续发展目标是十分有益的创举。
Copper is the kind of metal that was recognized and used earliest by human, and it owns the deepest influence towards human's culture among all the used materials. In the periodic system of elements, copper is in the same family with gold and silver, which brings it the similar super physical properties and chemical properties with noble metal, that is, good plasticity, easy to be processed, corrosion resistant, antimagnetic, attractive and durable. The most important point is that copper is the best material for electrical conductivity and thermal conductivity except silver. Therefore, copper is widely used as the best electrical conductor and thermal conductor, because that silver is very expensive. Copper industry plays an important role in national economy. There is a high relational degree between copper industry and other industries. There are 124 industries in our country, among which 113 departments uses copper product. The consumption of copper is only less than aluminum among all materials of non ferrous metal. Copper is an important raw material of modern industry. Although that the output of refined copper is the first in the world, the reserve of copper resources is only seven in the world. What makes thing worse, most of the copper ore deposits are middle size and small size, which means that there are only a little bit of them is large size. At present, the internationalization of the supply of our country's copper resources is inevitable, whose dependency on the international market of raw material is more and more. Any change of prices of copper ore in the international trade will be an unsteady factor of economical development. Hence, our country should have strategic deployment in order to make sure the supply of plenty of raw material. It not only relates to the economical development but also the national security.
I. Features of Market Supply and Demand
Under the frame of WTO and the economic integration whose character is globalization, privatization, liberalization and marketization, the transnational enterprises of mining industry have improved its influence and controlling force in the whole world towards the market through large scale of merger and purchase, which improves the concentration ratio of mineral resources. In recent years, the number of middle-sized mining industry company is decreased but the scale of those companies is becoming larger and larger, which will result in a situation of oligopoly market in the supply of mineral resources. The consumption demands of important mineral resources is improving rapidly, the world stocks is decreased in a large quantity and the cost of discovery of mineral resources is increased by a wide margin, all those abovementioned factors have given more initiative and control power, and the market structure is changes into seller's market form buyer's market. Under the market structure of oligopoly market of mineral resources seller's, it will be very easy for the producer to form price uniformity, which will give them the absolute power of pricing mechanism.
II. Factors that Influenced Price
As a kind of special raw material, copper does not only owns the properties of industry product, but also the properties of financial investment. On the one hand, viewed from the relationship of supply and demand, the consumption of copper is intimately related to the growth of population and area's ecological development, which will increased follows the steps of the growth of population and the basic consumer of copper. However, they are not increased synchronously and linear, instead, it is decided by the industrialization time of each area.
The changes of ratio data of copper consumption in each country in recent years shows that Chinese ratio is increased rapidly and the traditional consumption country such as America, Japan and European countries all decreases in some degree. The ration of developing countries is increased rapidly, the BRICs are the typical countries, which brings the second rapidly development of copper industry. On the other hand, from the contrastive analysis between the copper price and us dollars in the past twenty four years, the index of negative correlation between copper price and us dollars in the most years has been more than 50%, and even more than 60% in some years. The substantially increase of global trade has played an important role in the change of copper price, which included but not limited to the US Central Bank and Chinese Central Bank, most countries' currency authorities have put many currency supply in it. The good mobility has intensified the financial properties of copper, which increases the time and range of advancement in copper price.
The market price of copper is the result of the combined action of those two factors. The main index of industry property is the indentation of supply and demand, and the main index of financial property is US dollars. The historical data shows that the increase of copper price can be achieved by the resonance of the abovementioned two factors. However, the decrease of copper price can be caused by the resonance of the two factors or by one of the main factors.
III. Price Negotiation of International Trade
At present, there are two main patterns of international copper ore:one is spot trading(trading ore) and the other is long termed contracted ore(contracted ore).The main trading pattern of cooper ore is fixed long termed contract before 80s of 20 century, whose term is more than two years. The contracted processing charge is divided into fixed processing charge and changeable processing charged that according to the situation. The mine takes long termed contract financing to exploit new mine. In the later period of 80s, the intervention of large institutional investor and business bank makes it possible that mineral industry can improve its financing ability by merger instead the long termed contract of buyer of copper ore. Therefore, the long termed contracted pattern has been replaced by the annual negotiation of copper ore price. The negotiation of copper ore is similar with copper ore in some degree. The world copper resource is mainly in Chile, America, Zambia, Russia, Peru and so on, whereas the copper reserve in Chile is 1/3 of the world's, while the ore right is mainly controlled by international mineral industrious magnates, such as BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto Group and Free port. At present, the negotiation of Chinese copper ore is leading by a copper enterprise named CSPT. In the year of 2003, the national copper industrious magnate such as Tongling Non Ferrous Metals Company, Yunan Copper Group and Jiangxi Copper Industry, initiated and founded China Smelters Purchase Team, which is known as CSPT. It buys refined copper mine together. This association has included the eight copper enterprises. (CSPT is a whole entity to the outside. As to inner part, it mainly ruled by the business self-regulation, the one that disobeys the rules will be denounced inside, and there is no forced punishment towards the breach of promise. Therefore, the CSPT is actually a loosen association. As to the actual result, the association does not work at all, because its member negotiated separately for the insight profit. The international trading system of copper ore in our country is still in a state of disunity.
IV. Option of Competition Strategy
"what needed by China will increase in price in international market", which is the common knowledge of international market trade of commodity future. Those large amount of goods as petroleum, iron, copper, aluminum, rubber, sugar, cotton, bean have been advanced in price rapidly in recent years, which have been obstructed the development of our country's economy and our country has been the first sufferer of such increase of price. As the first consumer of cooper in the world, the national economy of our country have to accept the speculation of international market because of the lack of setting price, so that there are more cost than it is in the economical development. The Poter's five forces in copetition shows that the price negotiation ability of enterprise or industry towards the supplier is decided by the centralization, and the higer will be in a advantage. The world's copper ore supplier is monopolized by oligarch considered in the aspects of indusry centralization. In the aspect of industrial concentration, copper ore supplier in the world occupy an oligopolistic position. Copper ore suppliers dominate more than 70% the global trade in copper ore. Because of the high dispersion of copper industries in China, even the formation of alliances can not change the fact that and copper industries in our country can not compare with that of the global ones. Only by mergers and acquisitions of domestic copper industries to change the high dispersion of copper industries, and let them go their own way, to quote to the suppliers dispersedly, even to take the initiative to drive up prices is very difficult. To construct strong-strong game mode, you must find the answer through innovation, financial supply chain and the production chain. The introduction of industrial investment funds which are financing models to participate in international negotiations between the copper ore increased bargaining power.
V.Risk fund
The investment and financing system of copper venture capital industry fund is of great strategic significance to get directly involved in international copper ore trade negotiations to compete for voice, to maintain the stability and equity of China's economic development, to enhance powerful negotiations with existing international rules, against international speculators vicious extortion. On systems, through the rational division of labor, stripping purchasing power of copper ore industry, to make joint investment into Smelting Plant Industry Investment Fund on all mineral resources. On the one hand,it can increase copper ore international bargaining power and lower the production cost of steel copper industry, which contribute to the healthy development of steel copper; the other hand, it can stop the use of relatively large domestic monopoly advantage Smelting Plant, through the stir copper ore prices, harm the interests of the industry practice of short-term and partial interests, let them return to production processes, improve efficiency through management, through new product development to achieve industry upgrading, Smelting industry also true colors. On choice in financing, we should set up the mineral resources industry established by public offering, and the establishment of funds through private placement of various mineral resources, industry funds in venture capital investment bond-type structure, which will co-ordinate all resources and mineral resources into national strategies, promote the upgrading of mining industry as a whole to improve international competitiveness. To ensure the efficient operation of the Foundation, we must establish effective separation of the four powers administry structure of ownership, decision-making power, the right to supervise and manage, set up functional departments properly to establish sound risk control and establish and improve risk control and investment decision-making mechanisms, ensure that the information disclosure system to protect the general interests of investors. To eliminate the risk of information asymmetry, reduce agency costs, fund companies should establish a good agent incentive system which will integrate the interests of both sides. While leverage the use of wealth maximizing investor interests, it should be ensured that the company has a potential key personnel without the loss of talent and strengthen the core competitiveness of the building. Therefore fund corporations establish different organization for effective encouragement according to the different professional positions and hierarchy of needs. The higher the risk of long-term positions is, receive the higher incentive it receives. Since copper is a venture capital industry, risk control determines the direction of future development. Risk management is in fact the management process which change risk into a profit and is also a pre-management, the stronger the risk management is, the greater ability to take risks is, the more advantage development has. Risk management and profitability go hand in hand. While conducting a comprehensive risk management, Management focus should be put on copper ore in the international trade settlement risk arising from currency exchange rates, the risks of trade turnover, interest rate risk arising from buy-back bonds and the risk of risk investment and so forth. Prevention, spread, transfer, hedging, portfolio strategy of compensation to control risk within tolerable limits ensure the profitability of the fund sustainable and healthy development.
In addition, when the state carries out the policy of industry investment fund for strategic layout, it should emphasis on key industries. And it should control the development rhythm without blindness, either too much or too fast will result adverse consequences. The Fund's operation must be combined our international standards with the world. Our state is supposed to search for innovation under international rules, according to economic laws, and strengthen external supervision to ensure the standardization of operating funds. In conclusion, the government should actively guide, and give support to institutional, legal, tax to encourage their development.
引文
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