河北省经济可持续发展评估与战略研究
摘要
20世纪以来,随着科技和经济的迅速发展,人类干预自然的力量也大大加强。在人类物质文明高速发展的同时,带来了生态环境遭受严重损害的负面效应。“可持续发展”的概念一经提出,立即得到了世界各国的认同,并作为人类发展的共同目标。在“可持续发展”由理论到实践的过程中,一个亟待解决的中心问题就是对经济可持续性的判定。必须在科学的、系统的经济可持续发展指标体系和崭新框架内,定期定量地对经济可持续发展的水平、能力及趋势进行评估,并在此基础上提出经济可持续发展战略。
本文在详细研究经济可持续发展理论的基础上,借鉴国内外已有的研究成果,构建了河北省经济可持续发展的指标体系,并对河北省经济可持续发展的综合水平进行了评估。在此基础上运用社会生态核算矩阵的方法对河北省经济的可持续性进行判定。并根据前面的实证分析结果提出了河北省经济可持续发展战略。全文包括六个部分:
1.经济可持续发展的基本理论。本章首先给出了经济可持续发展的定义、内容,并分析了经济发展与可持续发展的关系,即在概念层次上分析经济可持续发展;从经济可持续发展的理论出发,分析经济发展和经济可持续发展的关系,并研究了国内外已有的各种经济可持续发展指标体系。
2.河北省经济可持续发展指标体系的构建。在结合河北省实际经济发展的基础上,提出了河北省经济可持续发展指标体系,并对具体指标做出详细说明。
3.河北省经济可持续发展综合水平评价。介绍了河北省发展概况,并详细说明因子分析法和全局主成分分析法的原理和步骤。根据相关的数据资料,利用全局主成分分析法得出河北省经济可持续发展的综合评分。对河北省总体以及各区域的经济可持续发展状况做出评价分析。
4.河北省经济可持续发展趋势评估。通过对国内外经济可持续发展理论及相关可持续发展评估指标体系进行分析及评价,初步建立了适应河北省省情的经济可持续发展评估指标体系,本着系统性、科学性、目标性、相关性、完备性与可行性相结合的原则,从7个方面建立可评估指标体系,即经济发展水平、经济发展效率、经济发展潜力、经济发展协调度、经济发展开放度、经济发展控制度、经济发展均衡度。建立了经济可持续发展评估流程,确定了以主成分分析方法的子系统指数评价模型和以改进的熵值法的综合指数模型,并利用经济统计的有关理论对河北省经济可持续发展综合指数进行了实证分析;从各个指数的角度分析了河北省1997-2006年经济可持续发展的趋势。为后续的经济可持续性的判定奠定了基础。
5.社会生态核算矩阵和河北省可持续发展的判定。为了对河北省经济可持续性进行判定,在投入占用产出分析(Input-Occupancy-Output)、国民经济核算(System of National Accounts)和社会核算矩阵(Social Accouting Matrix)的基础上,构建了社会生态核算矩阵(Social and Ecological Accouting Matrix),提出经济可持续性的判别准则,并对河北省1997-2006年的经济可持续性进行了判定。同时考虑到了自然资源和环境等的损失对GDP的影响,计算出了主要年份的河北省生态国内生产总值EDP(或称调整后的国内生产总值)。
6.河北省经济可持续发展发展战略。在上述分析的基础上,指出了制约河北省经济可持续发展的主要问题,并给出了河北省经济可持续发展战略。
With the rapid development of science and economy since the twentieth century, man’s capability to control the nature has been greatly improved. In the progress of material civilization, man has made much negative effect on ecology. As soon as the concept of sustainable development is given, it has been agreed on across the world as the common goal of mankind progress. During the practice of the concept, the core of the urgent problem is to make a judgement of economic sustainable development. It is demand to make a periodical and quantitative estimate of the level, capability and tendency of economic sustainable development and proposed the economic sustainable development strategy of Hebei province.
With the reference to the research results home and abroad, the thesis construct the index system of economic sustainable development in Hebei province, assess the level of economic sustainable development in Hebei province, and apply the SEAM to judge the sustainability of economic development. Morever, make an empirical research on Hebei province. The thesis is made up of six parts:
Part one: Basic theories of economic sustainable development. This chapter gives the definition and content of economic sustainable development, and analyse the relation between economic development and sustainable development. From the economic sustainable development theory, analyse the relation between economic development and economic sustainable development, and study the index system of economic sustainable development home and abroad.
Part two: The establish of the integrate index of economic sustainable development in Hebei province. Based on the fact of economic development in Hebei province, this chapter establish the integrate index of economic sustainable development in Hebei province, and define every idex.
Part three: The estimate of economic sustainable development in Hebei province. This chapter introduces the development survey in Hebei province, and defines the factor analysis and principal component analysis. According to relative data, evaluates the synthetical score of economic sustainable development in Hebei province.
Part four: The tendency estimate of economic sustainable development in Hebei province. By the review of economic sustainable development theory and their index system home and abroad, this chapter establish the The estimate index system of economic sustainable development in Hebei province, it includes seven aspects: the level of economic development, the efficiency of economic development, the potential of economic development, the harmony level of economic development, the opening level of economic development, the control level of economic development and the equilibrium level of economic development. According the data between 1997 and 2006 in Hebei province, analyses the tendency of economic sustainable development in Hebei province.
Part five: SEAM and judgement of ecomic sustainability of Hebei province. This chapter adopts SEAM to construct a model on the economic sustainability, and make an empirical analyze on HeBei province, then at the same time, calculates it’s EDP in main years, in order to make a scientific estimate on the economic sustainability of HeBei province.
Part six: The study on strategy of economic sustainable development in Hebei province.
本文在详细研究经济可持续发展理论的基础上,借鉴国内外已有的研究成果,构建了河北省经济可持续发展的指标体系,并对河北省经济可持续发展的综合水平进行了评估。在此基础上运用社会生态核算矩阵的方法对河北省经济的可持续性进行判定。并根据前面的实证分析结果提出了河北省经济可持续发展战略。全文包括六个部分:
1.经济可持续发展的基本理论。本章首先给出了经济可持续发展的定义、内容,并分析了经济发展与可持续发展的关系,即在概念层次上分析经济可持续发展;从经济可持续发展的理论出发,分析经济发展和经济可持续发展的关系,并研究了国内外已有的各种经济可持续发展指标体系。
2.河北省经济可持续发展指标体系的构建。在结合河北省实际经济发展的基础上,提出了河北省经济可持续发展指标体系,并对具体指标做出详细说明。
3.河北省经济可持续发展综合水平评价。介绍了河北省发展概况,并详细说明因子分析法和全局主成分分析法的原理和步骤。根据相关的数据资料,利用全局主成分分析法得出河北省经济可持续发展的综合评分。对河北省总体以及各区域的经济可持续发展状况做出评价分析。
4.河北省经济可持续发展趋势评估。通过对国内外经济可持续发展理论及相关可持续发展评估指标体系进行分析及评价,初步建立了适应河北省省情的经济可持续发展评估指标体系,本着系统性、科学性、目标性、相关性、完备性与可行性相结合的原则,从7个方面建立可评估指标体系,即经济发展水平、经济发展效率、经济发展潜力、经济发展协调度、经济发展开放度、经济发展控制度、经济发展均衡度。建立了经济可持续发展评估流程,确定了以主成分分析方法的子系统指数评价模型和以改进的熵值法的综合指数模型,并利用经济统计的有关理论对河北省经济可持续发展综合指数进行了实证分析;从各个指数的角度分析了河北省1997-2006年经济可持续发展的趋势。为后续的经济可持续性的判定奠定了基础。
5.社会生态核算矩阵和河北省可持续发展的判定。为了对河北省经济可持续性进行判定,在投入占用产出分析(Input-Occupancy-Output)、国民经济核算(System of National Accounts)和社会核算矩阵(Social Accouting Matrix)的基础上,构建了社会生态核算矩阵(Social and Ecological Accouting Matrix),提出经济可持续性的判别准则,并对河北省1997-2006年的经济可持续性进行了判定。同时考虑到了自然资源和环境等的损失对GDP的影响,计算出了主要年份的河北省生态国内生产总值EDP(或称调整后的国内生产总值)。
6.河北省经济可持续发展发展战略。在上述分析的基础上,指出了制约河北省经济可持续发展的主要问题,并给出了河北省经济可持续发展战略。
With the rapid development of science and economy since the twentieth century, man’s capability to control the nature has been greatly improved. In the progress of material civilization, man has made much negative effect on ecology. As soon as the concept of sustainable development is given, it has been agreed on across the world as the common goal of mankind progress. During the practice of the concept, the core of the urgent problem is to make a judgement of economic sustainable development. It is demand to make a periodical and quantitative estimate of the level, capability and tendency of economic sustainable development and proposed the economic sustainable development strategy of Hebei province.
With the reference to the research results home and abroad, the thesis construct the index system of economic sustainable development in Hebei province, assess the level of economic sustainable development in Hebei province, and apply the SEAM to judge the sustainability of economic development. Morever, make an empirical research on Hebei province. The thesis is made up of six parts:
Part one: Basic theories of economic sustainable development. This chapter gives the definition and content of economic sustainable development, and analyse the relation between economic development and sustainable development. From the economic sustainable development theory, analyse the relation between economic development and economic sustainable development, and study the index system of economic sustainable development home and abroad.
Part two: The establish of the integrate index of economic sustainable development in Hebei province. Based on the fact of economic development in Hebei province, this chapter establish the integrate index of economic sustainable development in Hebei province, and define every idex.
Part three: The estimate of economic sustainable development in Hebei province. This chapter introduces the development survey in Hebei province, and defines the factor analysis and principal component analysis. According to relative data, evaluates the synthetical score of economic sustainable development in Hebei province.
Part four: The tendency estimate of economic sustainable development in Hebei province. By the review of economic sustainable development theory and their index system home and abroad, this chapter establish the The estimate index system of economic sustainable development in Hebei province, it includes seven aspects: the level of economic development, the efficiency of economic development, the potential of economic development, the harmony level of economic development, the opening level of economic development, the control level of economic development and the equilibrium level of economic development. According the data between 1997 and 2006 in Hebei province, analyses the tendency of economic sustainable development in Hebei province.
Part five: SEAM and judgement of ecomic sustainability of Hebei province. This chapter adopts SEAM to construct a model on the economic sustainability, and make an empirical analyze on HeBei province, then at the same time, calculates it’s EDP in main years, in order to make a scientific estimate on the economic sustainability of HeBei province.
Part six: The study on strategy of economic sustainable development in Hebei province.
引文
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