极端降雨诱发山地公路地质灾害风险评价及应用研究
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摘要
我国幅员辽阔,地形复杂多样,山地面积约占全国土地总面积的2/3以上。山地具有相对复杂的地质结构,因此往往是地质灾害的易发区。伴随着全球气候变化,“继续强降雨”、“大暴雨”、“持续干旱后降雨”等极端气象频繁出现,由此诱发的地质灾害给山地公路的通行带来了巨大困难,如何应对极端天气诱发的地质灾害对山区公路交通的影响,已成为我国山地公路维护与保通亟需解决的问题。基于此,笔者认为当前情况下迫切需要结合山地公路的工程实际,开展主要干线公路的地质灾害风险评价和区划研究工作,从而为建立公路地质灾害监测网络、制定应急措施并保障生命和财产安全提供工作基础。
本文的撰写以西部交通建设科技项目“三峡库区极端气候衍生公路灾害监测预警技术研究”为支撑,依托课题组对重庆市国省干线公路地质灾害相关调查资料,研究探索了一套切实可行的、服务于山地公路等大型线性工程的地质灾害风险评价理论与方法体系,并应用于重庆市国省干线公路的滑坡、崩塌地质灾害风险评价。通过本文的研究,得到如下成果:
①以重庆市国省干线公路为例进行山地公路地质灾害实地调研,总调研里程9346.84Km,编录历史灾害点1695处,潜在灾害点3283处;对山地公路地质灾害的发育类型及破坏模式进行了辨识,认为滑坡灾害与崩塌灾害是山地公路地质灾害的主要类型,其破坏模式包括碎屑流渐进式滑坡、崩积层滑坡、砂泥岩、页岩互层崩塌和陡倾砂岩、泥岩、灰岩互层崩塌等四类。
②对山地公路地质灾害孕育环境地质表征因素进行识别,分别从地形地貌、地层岩性、斜坡类型、地质构造、水文地质条件及植被覆盖等方面研究了山地公路滑坡、崩塌地质灾害的发育规律,并初步划分出各单因素条件下地质灾害危险性等级。
③历史及潜在灾害点的分布规律一定程度上影响未来山地公路地质灾害的发育,本文以重庆市公路地质灾害为例,对249个国省干线路段的滑坡、崩塌地质灾害从数量分布密度和规模分布密度两个方面进行专门研究,得出了相应的分布规律,并进行了初步的等级划分。
④综合运用多种统计分析方法研究了山地公路地质灾害与极端降雨的相关性。分别拟合了诱发山地公路滑坡、崩塌地质灾害的累积有效降雨量计算公式,并以此作为极端降雨事件的识别模型,并通过Logistic回归分析构建了山地公路地质灾害预测模型,同时给出了两种数学模型在风险评价中的应用方法。
⑤山地公路地质灾害危险性评价的目的在于探讨评价区域内各种地质灾害危险性程度。本文对危险性评价的原理进行了阐述,确定了危险性评价的基本步骤,构建了评价指标体系和基于可拓学与模糊理论的综合集成方法的评价模型,最后以重庆市国省干线公路地质灾害为例进行了危险性评价。
⑥在前人研究的基础上重新定义了山地公路地质灾害的易损性,即易损性用于描述特定灾害类型对承灾体进行损毁或破坏的直接效应,它表征了承灾体和灾害之间的相互作用程度,本质上是承灾体遭受破坏时表现出的固有属性;另一方面,针对某种特定灾害类型,易损性间接衡量人类社会为抗击灾害而采取防控措施、设置防灾工程的效能,是承灾体被动防控和人类社会主动防控而付出直接或间接投入的综合。
⑦山地公路地质灾害的易损性评价不同于危险性评价,本文应用基于观测值K-均值聚类的方法对山地公路地质灾害的易损性进行了研究,通过虚设聚类中心划分了易损性等级,并对重庆市国省干线公路滑坡、崩塌灾害易损性进行了区划。
⑧在对山地公路地质灾害复杂系统进行分析的基础上,详细阐述了山地公路地质灾害风险管理系统,提出了风险线评价的理念,构建了山地公路地质灾害风险线评价指标体系,同时对指标体系内诸要素进行了定义性描述。指出宜采用综合集成方法对地质灾害进行风险评价,运用风险矩阵图的进行各路段风险值的测算与评价,为解决风险矩阵图直观性较差的问题,应用ARCGIS的图显功能对风险进行了区划。
China has a vast, complex and varied terrain, of which the mountainous area takes up about 2 / 3 or more. Mountain has a relatively complex geological structure, resulting in prone areas of geological hazards. With global climate change, the frequent extreme weather such as "continued heavy rainfall", "heavy rain" and "rain after continued drought," happened frequently, which induced geological disasters, giving rise to great difficulties in pass of mountain roads. Therefore, how to deal with effects of these geological disasters on mountain road traffic has become a problem to be solved desideratedly for the maintenance and unimpeded communication of mountain road. Based on this, the author believes that it is, under the current circumstances, an urgent need to perform a research, combined with practical engineering situation of mountain highways, on the risk assessment and zoning of geological hazards in main trunk roads, of which the purpose is to build a monitoring network used for road geological disasters and hence provide the basis work for taking emergency measures to protect life and property.
This dissertation is supported by the western transportation construction projects, Three Gorges reservoir area of extreme weather derivatives highway disaster monitoring and early warning technology. Relying on the investitation materials from the research group author belonging to of Chongqing-related geological hazards in national and provincial trunk highway, the study explored a set of practical, geological disaster risk assessment theory and methodology, which is able to services in mountain highway projects and other large linear engineerings, and applied to risk assessment of geological hazards such as landslide and collapse occurred in national and provincial trunk highway in Chongqing. Through this study, obtained were the following results:
①The national and provincial trunk highway in Chongqing as an example for field research of geological disasters mountain road, with a total length of 9346.84 research, catalog the historical point of 1695 disaster, potential disaster points 3283; on mountain road types and the development of geological hazards were identified failure modes that the landslide and collapse hazard is the main mountain road types of geological hazards, and its failure modes include progressive landslide debris flows, colluvium landslide, sandstone and mudstone, shale landslides and steep sandstone, mudstone, limestone cross layer collapse four categories.
②On mountain highway geologic hazard characterization of factors that gave birth to identify environmental geology, respectively, from topography, lithology, slope type, geological structure, hydrogeological conditions and vegetation cover aspects of the mountain road landslide, collapse of geological disasters, development law, Preliminary division and under the conditions of each single factor geological hazard level.
③History and the distribution of potential disaster points to a certain extent affect the future development of geological disasters in mountain roads, this road geological disasters in Chongqing, for example, of the 249 national and provincial trunk roads of landslides, avalanches distribution of geological disasters in the number density and size from the density of two specialized research, obtained the corresponding distribution, and a preliminary classification.
④Comprehensive use of various statistical analysis methods of the mountain highway geologic hazard associated with extreme rainfall. Mountain roads were fitted induced landslides, avalanches geological disasters formula cumulative effective rainfall and extreme rainfall events as the identification model and Logistic regression analysis was constructed through the mountain highway geologic hazard prediction model, and gives two kinds of models in the risk evaluation method.
⑤Mountain highway geologic hazard risk evaluation is to investigate the geological evaluation of the region the degree of hazard. In this paper, the principle of risk assessment are described to determine the basic steps of risk assessment, and evaluation index system was constructed based on extension theory and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model of integration method, and finally to national and provincial trunk highways Chongqing Geological Disaster risk assessment carried out as an example.
⑥On the basis of previous studies to redefine the mountain road the vulnerability of geological disasters, the vulnerability used to describe a particular type of Disaster in disaster for the direct effects of damaged or destroyed, it is characterized disaster bodies and disasters The interaction between the degree of hazard-affected bodies is essentially destroyed when the intrinsic properties shown; the other hand, for a particular type of disaster, an indirect measure of the vulnerability of human society for the prevention and control measures taken by the disaster, set against disaster engineering effectiveness, prevention and control is passive and Disaster in the prevention and control of human society take the initiative to pay directly or indirectly involved in the synthesis.
⑦Mountain highway vulnerability assessment of geological hazards is different from the risk assessment, this paper observations on K-means clustering method on mountain roads the vulnerability of geological disasters have been studied by the level of vulnerability and use significant feature in Figure ARCGIS vulnerability was zoning.
⑧Based on analysis of the complex system of geological disasters in mountain highways, the detailed risk management system of geological disasters in mountain highways was expatiated, the concept of risk line evaluation was proposed, the index system of line evaluation was constructed, and factors of the index system were definitively described. The comprehensive integratation approach was advised to be applied to risk assessment of geological disasters, the risk matrix figure was suggested to calculated and evaluate risk values of the various sections, and for solving the problem of poor intuitive application of risk matrix figure, the risk of ARCGIS was ultilized to zone vulnerability.
本文的撰写以西部交通建设科技项目“三峡库区极端气候衍生公路灾害监测预警技术研究”为支撑,依托课题组对重庆市国省干线公路地质灾害相关调查资料,研究探索了一套切实可行的、服务于山地公路等大型线性工程的地质灾害风险评价理论与方法体系,并应用于重庆市国省干线公路的滑坡、崩塌地质灾害风险评价。通过本文的研究,得到如下成果:
①以重庆市国省干线公路为例进行山地公路地质灾害实地调研,总调研里程9346.84Km,编录历史灾害点1695处,潜在灾害点3283处;对山地公路地质灾害的发育类型及破坏模式进行了辨识,认为滑坡灾害与崩塌灾害是山地公路地质灾害的主要类型,其破坏模式包括碎屑流渐进式滑坡、崩积层滑坡、砂泥岩、页岩互层崩塌和陡倾砂岩、泥岩、灰岩互层崩塌等四类。
②对山地公路地质灾害孕育环境地质表征因素进行识别,分别从地形地貌、地层岩性、斜坡类型、地质构造、水文地质条件及植被覆盖等方面研究了山地公路滑坡、崩塌地质灾害的发育规律,并初步划分出各单因素条件下地质灾害危险性等级。
③历史及潜在灾害点的分布规律一定程度上影响未来山地公路地质灾害的发育,本文以重庆市公路地质灾害为例,对249个国省干线路段的滑坡、崩塌地质灾害从数量分布密度和规模分布密度两个方面进行专门研究,得出了相应的分布规律,并进行了初步的等级划分。
④综合运用多种统计分析方法研究了山地公路地质灾害与极端降雨的相关性。分别拟合了诱发山地公路滑坡、崩塌地质灾害的累积有效降雨量计算公式,并以此作为极端降雨事件的识别模型,并通过Logistic回归分析构建了山地公路地质灾害预测模型,同时给出了两种数学模型在风险评价中的应用方法。
⑤山地公路地质灾害危险性评价的目的在于探讨评价区域内各种地质灾害危险性程度。本文对危险性评价的原理进行了阐述,确定了危险性评价的基本步骤,构建了评价指标体系和基于可拓学与模糊理论的综合集成方法的评价模型,最后以重庆市国省干线公路地质灾害为例进行了危险性评价。
⑥在前人研究的基础上重新定义了山地公路地质灾害的易损性,即易损性用于描述特定灾害类型对承灾体进行损毁或破坏的直接效应,它表征了承灾体和灾害之间的相互作用程度,本质上是承灾体遭受破坏时表现出的固有属性;另一方面,针对某种特定灾害类型,易损性间接衡量人类社会为抗击灾害而采取防控措施、设置防灾工程的效能,是承灾体被动防控和人类社会主动防控而付出直接或间接投入的综合。
⑦山地公路地质灾害的易损性评价不同于危险性评价,本文应用基于观测值K-均值聚类的方法对山地公路地质灾害的易损性进行了研究,通过虚设聚类中心划分了易损性等级,并对重庆市国省干线公路滑坡、崩塌灾害易损性进行了区划。
⑧在对山地公路地质灾害复杂系统进行分析的基础上,详细阐述了山地公路地质灾害风险管理系统,提出了风险线评价的理念,构建了山地公路地质灾害风险线评价指标体系,同时对指标体系内诸要素进行了定义性描述。指出宜采用综合集成方法对地质灾害进行风险评价,运用风险矩阵图的进行各路段风险值的测算与评价,为解决风险矩阵图直观性较差的问题,应用ARCGIS的图显功能对风险进行了区划。
China has a vast, complex and varied terrain, of which the mountainous area takes up about 2 / 3 or more. Mountain has a relatively complex geological structure, resulting in prone areas of geological hazards. With global climate change, the frequent extreme weather such as "continued heavy rainfall", "heavy rain" and "rain after continued drought," happened frequently, which induced geological disasters, giving rise to great difficulties in pass of mountain roads. Therefore, how to deal with effects of these geological disasters on mountain road traffic has become a problem to be solved desideratedly for the maintenance and unimpeded communication of mountain road. Based on this, the author believes that it is, under the current circumstances, an urgent need to perform a research, combined with practical engineering situation of mountain highways, on the risk assessment and zoning of geological hazards in main trunk roads, of which the purpose is to build a monitoring network used for road geological disasters and hence provide the basis work for taking emergency measures to protect life and property.
This dissertation is supported by the western transportation construction projects, Three Gorges reservoir area of extreme weather derivatives highway disaster monitoring and early warning technology. Relying on the investitation materials from the research group author belonging to of Chongqing-related geological hazards in national and provincial trunk highway, the study explored a set of practical, geological disaster risk assessment theory and methodology, which is able to services in mountain highway projects and other large linear engineerings, and applied to risk assessment of geological hazards such as landslide and collapse occurred in national and provincial trunk highway in Chongqing. Through this study, obtained were the following results:
①The national and provincial trunk highway in Chongqing as an example for field research of geological disasters mountain road, with a total length of 9346.84 research, catalog the historical point of 1695 disaster, potential disaster points 3283; on mountain road types and the development of geological hazards were identified failure modes that the landslide and collapse hazard is the main mountain road types of geological hazards, and its failure modes include progressive landslide debris flows, colluvium landslide, sandstone and mudstone, shale landslides and steep sandstone, mudstone, limestone cross layer collapse four categories.
②On mountain highway geologic hazard characterization of factors that gave birth to identify environmental geology, respectively, from topography, lithology, slope type, geological structure, hydrogeological conditions and vegetation cover aspects of the mountain road landslide, collapse of geological disasters, development law, Preliminary division and under the conditions of each single factor geological hazard level.
③History and the distribution of potential disaster points to a certain extent affect the future development of geological disasters in mountain roads, this road geological disasters in Chongqing, for example, of the 249 national and provincial trunk roads of landslides, avalanches distribution of geological disasters in the number density and size from the density of two specialized research, obtained the corresponding distribution, and a preliminary classification.
④Comprehensive use of various statistical analysis methods of the mountain highway geologic hazard associated with extreme rainfall. Mountain roads were fitted induced landslides, avalanches geological disasters formula cumulative effective rainfall and extreme rainfall events as the identification model and Logistic regression analysis was constructed through the mountain highway geologic hazard prediction model, and gives two kinds of models in the risk evaluation method.
⑤Mountain highway geologic hazard risk evaluation is to investigate the geological evaluation of the region the degree of hazard. In this paper, the principle of risk assessment are described to determine the basic steps of risk assessment, and evaluation index system was constructed based on extension theory and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model of integration method, and finally to national and provincial trunk highways Chongqing Geological Disaster risk assessment carried out as an example.
⑥On the basis of previous studies to redefine the mountain road the vulnerability of geological disasters, the vulnerability used to describe a particular type of Disaster in disaster for the direct effects of damaged or destroyed, it is characterized disaster bodies and disasters The interaction between the degree of hazard-affected bodies is essentially destroyed when the intrinsic properties shown; the other hand, for a particular type of disaster, an indirect measure of the vulnerability of human society for the prevention and control measures taken by the disaster, set against disaster engineering effectiveness, prevention and control is passive and Disaster in the prevention and control of human society take the initiative to pay directly or indirectly involved in the synthesis.
⑦Mountain highway vulnerability assessment of geological hazards is different from the risk assessment, this paper observations on K-means clustering method on mountain roads the vulnerability of geological disasters have been studied by the level of vulnerability and use significant feature in Figure ARCGIS vulnerability was zoning.
⑧Based on analysis of the complex system of geological disasters in mountain highways, the detailed risk management system of geological disasters in mountain highways was expatiated, the concept of risk line evaluation was proposed, the index system of line evaluation was constructed, and factors of the index system were definitively described. The comprehensive integratation approach was advised to be applied to risk assessment of geological disasters, the risk matrix figure was suggested to calculated and evaluate risk values of the various sections, and for solving the problem of poor intuitive application of risk matrix figure, the risk of ARCGIS was ultilized to zone vulnerability.
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