中国能源消费、碳排放与经济增长关系的研究
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摘要
目前,发展低碳经济成为世界各国的正确选择。我国作为世界上最大的发展中国家,已成为能源消费和温室气体排放第二大国,不多远将成为能源消费和温室气体排放第一大国。在这样的背景下,如何在发展低碳经济的道路上协调能源消费、碳排放与经济增长的关系成为关键问题。
能源消费、碳排放与经济增长间的关系是一个复杂的系统关系。能源作为经济增长的因素,在推动经济增长的同时,也导致了碳排放的产生。在这一关系中,经济增长是根本问题。所以,在能源消费和碳排放的双重约束下,我国经济能否保持着持续增长是所有学者始终关注的。在这个前提下,能源消费与碳排放有何规律可遵,在开放经济条件下我国的出口贸易与能源消费和碳排放间有何关系等这些问题都是应该解决的问题。围绕这些问题,本文在理论和实证上系统研究了能源消费、碳排放与经济增长的关系。
在理论上,本文在内生经济增长框架下,通过对碳排放征收碳税,从而缓解了环境问题的外部性问题。在碳税的作用下,经济增长会出现稳态的平衡增长路径。所以,存在能源消费和碳排放的双重约束时,经济增长并没有出现倒退的现象,而是在政府碳税政策的调控下出现了新机,经济增长达到了“稳态水平”的目标。同时,碳税还调节能源消费,从而可以调节碳排放量,可以实现能源消费、碳排放与经济增长的协调发展,并因此提高社会的整体福利水平。另外,还可以通过调整产业结构、能源消费结构以及提高技术水平实现能源消费、碳排放与经济增长的协调发展。
在实证上,本文利用Divisia指数分解法估算了中国及其各省域1990-2007年的碳排放量。在此基础上,不仅实证研究了碳排放的影响因素,而且还对三者间的关系进行了实证研究。能源消费与经济增长间和碳排放与经济增长间都存在着长期协整关系,并且相应的因果关系因区域不同而不同。同时,能源消费、碳排放与经济增长三者间也存在长期协整关系,从长期看,能源消费是经济增长和碳排放的原因,经济增长也是能源消费和碳排放的原因,同时碳排放也是经济增长的原因。
在我国的经济增长过程中,能源消费和碳排放遵循倒U型变化规律。本文利用EKC模型,通过实证研究发现,中国及其东部和中部地区存在着人均能源消费和人均碳排放的倒U型曲线,而西部地区存在正U型曲线。基于此,本文对我国以及东部和中部地区各省域的人均能源消费和人均碳排放量的峰值做了预测,我国的大部分省域都在2020年前后达到人均能源消费和人均碳排放量的峰值。不仅如此,人均能源消费量和人均碳排放量都出现出相对收敛的特征,并且表现出东部、中部和西部地区的三大俱乐部收敛的情况。
在开放经济条件下,出口贸易是经济增长的“三驾马车”之一,因此,研究出口贸易与能源消费和碳排放的关系成为当前的热点之一。通过构建出口贸易与能源消费和出口贸易与碳排放量的计量模型,发现出口贸易具有能源消费和碳排放的“增加”效应,这种效应在东部、中部和西部地区表现各异。同时,我国及其三大地区中出口贸易与能源消费和碳排放间的因果关系也相异。
At present, the development of low-carbon economy has become the right choice for the world. China, as the largest developing country in the world, has become second largest country for energy consumption and carbon emissions, not far will be the superpower. In this context, how to coordinate energy consumption, carbon emissions and economic growth on the road to the development of low-carbon economy becomes a key issue.
The relationship of energy consumption, carbon emissions and economic growth is a complex system. Energy, which is an economic growth factor promotes economic growth, while leding to carbon emissions. In this relationship, the economic growth is the fundamental problem. So with the dual constraints of energy consumption and carbon emissions, our ability to maintain a sustained economic growth is always of concern to all academics. On this premise, there are many issues such as what laws to comply with for energy consumption and carbon emissions, and what the relationship for China's export trade and energy consumption and carbon emissions in the open economy to be resolved. Around these issues, this dissertation theoreticalliy and empirically studies the relationship for energy consumption, carbon emissions and economic growth.
In theory, within the framework of endogenous growth, this article solves the environmental problems of external issues through a carbon tax on carbon emissions. With the role of carbon taxes, economic growth appears steady-state balanced growth path. Therefore, with the dual constraints of energy consumption and carbon emissions, economic growth has not shown a reverse trend, but the emergence of new aircraft, reaching a "steady-state level" target. Meanwhile, the carbon tax also promotes the energy-saving and emission reduction, and coordinates the relationship energy consumption, carbon emissions and economic growth, and raises the level of social welfare. In addition, by adjusting the industrial structure, energy consumption structure, and raising the technological level, harmonious development between energy consumption, carbon emissions and economic growth can be achieved.
In experience, this dissertation estimates carbon emissions for China and its provinces from 1990 to 2007, using Divisia index decomposition method. On this basis, the dissertation not only empirically studies the impact of carbon emission factors, but also the relationship for energy consumption, carbon emissions and economic growth. There are long-term cointegration relationship between energy consumption and economic growth, carbon emissions and economic growth. At the same time, the corresponding causal relationship varies from region to region. Menwhlie, energy consumption, carbon emissions and economic growth also exist the long-term cointegration relationship. Over the long term, energy consumption causes economic growth and carbon emissions, economic growth causes energy consumption and carbon emission, and carbon emissions also causes economic growth.
In the process of China's economic growth, energy consumption and carbon emissions follow the inverted U-type variation. With the EKC model, this dissertation empirically founds that there is inverted U-shaped curve for per capita energy consumption and per capita carbon emissions in China and its presence in eastern and central regions, and U-shaped curve in the western region. Based on this, this article predicts the peak of per capita energy consumption and per capita carbon emissions for China and the provinces in the eastern and central regions, and considers that the peak will be in around 2020. Not only that, per capita energy consumption and per capita carbon emissions have emerged the feature of the relative convergence, and the eastern, central and western club convergence.
In the open economic conditions, the export trade is one of facors boosting economic growth. Therefore, to study the relationship of the export trade and energy consumption and carbon emissions now becomes hot. By building the model, it is found that the export trade increases the energy consumption and carbon emissions, which is different in the eastern, central and western regions. At the same time, the causal relationship for export trade, energy consumption and carbon emissions is also different.
能源消费、碳排放与经济增长间的关系是一个复杂的系统关系。能源作为经济增长的因素,在推动经济增长的同时,也导致了碳排放的产生。在这一关系中,经济增长是根本问题。所以,在能源消费和碳排放的双重约束下,我国经济能否保持着持续增长是所有学者始终关注的。在这个前提下,能源消费与碳排放有何规律可遵,在开放经济条件下我国的出口贸易与能源消费和碳排放间有何关系等这些问题都是应该解决的问题。围绕这些问题,本文在理论和实证上系统研究了能源消费、碳排放与经济增长的关系。
在理论上,本文在内生经济增长框架下,通过对碳排放征收碳税,从而缓解了环境问题的外部性问题。在碳税的作用下,经济增长会出现稳态的平衡增长路径。所以,存在能源消费和碳排放的双重约束时,经济增长并没有出现倒退的现象,而是在政府碳税政策的调控下出现了新机,经济增长达到了“稳态水平”的目标。同时,碳税还调节能源消费,从而可以调节碳排放量,可以实现能源消费、碳排放与经济增长的协调发展,并因此提高社会的整体福利水平。另外,还可以通过调整产业结构、能源消费结构以及提高技术水平实现能源消费、碳排放与经济增长的协调发展。
在实证上,本文利用Divisia指数分解法估算了中国及其各省域1990-2007年的碳排放量。在此基础上,不仅实证研究了碳排放的影响因素,而且还对三者间的关系进行了实证研究。能源消费与经济增长间和碳排放与经济增长间都存在着长期协整关系,并且相应的因果关系因区域不同而不同。同时,能源消费、碳排放与经济增长三者间也存在长期协整关系,从长期看,能源消费是经济增长和碳排放的原因,经济增长也是能源消费和碳排放的原因,同时碳排放也是经济增长的原因。
在我国的经济增长过程中,能源消费和碳排放遵循倒U型变化规律。本文利用EKC模型,通过实证研究发现,中国及其东部和中部地区存在着人均能源消费和人均碳排放的倒U型曲线,而西部地区存在正U型曲线。基于此,本文对我国以及东部和中部地区各省域的人均能源消费和人均碳排放量的峰值做了预测,我国的大部分省域都在2020年前后达到人均能源消费和人均碳排放量的峰值。不仅如此,人均能源消费量和人均碳排放量都出现出相对收敛的特征,并且表现出东部、中部和西部地区的三大俱乐部收敛的情况。
在开放经济条件下,出口贸易是经济增长的“三驾马车”之一,因此,研究出口贸易与能源消费和碳排放的关系成为当前的热点之一。通过构建出口贸易与能源消费和出口贸易与碳排放量的计量模型,发现出口贸易具有能源消费和碳排放的“增加”效应,这种效应在东部、中部和西部地区表现各异。同时,我国及其三大地区中出口贸易与能源消费和碳排放间的因果关系也相异。
At present, the development of low-carbon economy has become the right choice for the world. China, as the largest developing country in the world, has become second largest country for energy consumption and carbon emissions, not far will be the superpower. In this context, how to coordinate energy consumption, carbon emissions and economic growth on the road to the development of low-carbon economy becomes a key issue.
The relationship of energy consumption, carbon emissions and economic growth is a complex system. Energy, which is an economic growth factor promotes economic growth, while leding to carbon emissions. In this relationship, the economic growth is the fundamental problem. So with the dual constraints of energy consumption and carbon emissions, our ability to maintain a sustained economic growth is always of concern to all academics. On this premise, there are many issues such as what laws to comply with for energy consumption and carbon emissions, and what the relationship for China's export trade and energy consumption and carbon emissions in the open economy to be resolved. Around these issues, this dissertation theoreticalliy and empirically studies the relationship for energy consumption, carbon emissions and economic growth.
In theory, within the framework of endogenous growth, this article solves the environmental problems of external issues through a carbon tax on carbon emissions. With the role of carbon taxes, economic growth appears steady-state balanced growth path. Therefore, with the dual constraints of energy consumption and carbon emissions, economic growth has not shown a reverse trend, but the emergence of new aircraft, reaching a "steady-state level" target. Meanwhile, the carbon tax also promotes the energy-saving and emission reduction, and coordinates the relationship energy consumption, carbon emissions and economic growth, and raises the level of social welfare. In addition, by adjusting the industrial structure, energy consumption structure, and raising the technological level, harmonious development between energy consumption, carbon emissions and economic growth can be achieved.
In experience, this dissertation estimates carbon emissions for China and its provinces from 1990 to 2007, using Divisia index decomposition method. On this basis, the dissertation not only empirically studies the impact of carbon emission factors, but also the relationship for energy consumption, carbon emissions and economic growth. There are long-term cointegration relationship between energy consumption and economic growth, carbon emissions and economic growth. At the same time, the corresponding causal relationship varies from region to region. Menwhlie, energy consumption, carbon emissions and economic growth also exist the long-term cointegration relationship. Over the long term, energy consumption causes economic growth and carbon emissions, economic growth causes energy consumption and carbon emission, and carbon emissions also causes economic growth.
In the process of China's economic growth, energy consumption and carbon emissions follow the inverted U-type variation. With the EKC model, this dissertation empirically founds that there is inverted U-shaped curve for per capita energy consumption and per capita carbon emissions in China and its presence in eastern and central regions, and U-shaped curve in the western region. Based on this, this article predicts the peak of per capita energy consumption and per capita carbon emissions for China and the provinces in the eastern and central regions, and considers that the peak will be in around 2020. Not only that, per capita energy consumption and per capita carbon emissions have emerged the feature of the relative convergence, and the eastern, central and western club convergence.
In the open economic conditions, the export trade is one of facors boosting economic growth. Therefore, to study the relationship of the export trade and energy consumption and carbon emissions now becomes hot. By building the model, it is found that the export trade increases the energy consumption and carbon emissions, which is different in the eastern, central and western regions. At the same time, the causal relationship for export trade, energy consumption and carbon emissions is also different.
引文
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