城市商品住宅市场波动及其调控对策研究
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摘要
近年来,房地产市场波动的度量、分析已成为当今房地产经营与管理研究的前沿课题。其中住宅市场波动的研究既是住宅与房地产消费者、投资者及其市场管理工作者的现实迫切需要,也是我国住宅市场持续、健康发展的要求,它对引导住宅的合理投资和住宅相关产业的正常发展、指导住宅市场调控管理实践,具有重大的理论和现实意义。
本文在对国内外房地产波动理论和住宅市场波动研究现状进行综述的基础上,系统地论述了有关住宅与房地产市场波动理论与方法的研究成果。
提出并论述了城市宏观经济变量、房地产经济变量与住宅市场波动之间的定性和定量关系。本文根据城市商品住宅市场与城市宏观经济变量、房地产经济变量关系的理论分析,立足于我国宏观及样点城市的数据基础,采用数据分析方法,设置城市住宅市场波动指标,依据Granger检验理论和方法,计量分析了宏观经济变量、房地产经济变量与住宅市场波动之间的互动关系,并以我国住宅市场为对象进行了实证研究。
提出并构建了基于直接资本化率的住宅市场波动分析模型,讨论了住宅市场时序动态模型和横截面动态模型。论文在分析现行住宅市场波动模型的基础上,根据城市住宅市场动力学理论分析住宅市场波动系统,在提出了直接资本化率计算和检验的数学模型以后,依据直接资本化率的特性,从商品住宅市场、住宅租赁市场互动的角度分析出商品住宅市场波动的幅度、波位以及与客观价值的偏离的程度,并对案例城市住宅市场波动进行了实证研究。同时,借助缩约模型的基本思想,将住宅市场波动的外生和内生敏感性因素纳入到城市住宅市场的动态分析中,从纵向角度引入非时滞调整和时滞调整的两类模式,构筑了不同形式的住宅市场波动的时序动态模型,采用对数模型估算案例城市商品住宅市场的时序动态波动状况。另一方面,从横向角度构建了符合我国城市住宅市场运行状况的住宅市场横截面动态模型,以我国15个副省级城市为样本进行了实证分析。
提出了评价城市住宅市场波动状态的城市住宅市场综合景气指数的概念及其算法模型。文中在对DI与CI指数向量进行数据处理并建立整合基础以后,依据DI值与CI值的精度分析,摒弃主观判断的处理方法,按照各自中误差的高低和权重计算理论与思想,确定各整合基础数据所载商品住宅市场信息量的权重,最后对其进行加权平均,构筑了住宅商品市场波动评价的综合景气指数的确定理论和实际操作系统。
依据以上住宅市场波动度量的理论与模型,指导设计并研制了样点城市房地产市场预警预报系统,该实证研究项目于2004年通过了成果鉴定,并获得部市级科技进步二等奖。目前已投入实际运行阶段。
In the field of real estate, measurement and analysis of the fluctuation of the real estate market has become very much a pioneering research issue. As an important component of the property market, the fluctuation of urban residential real estate market can have significant impact on the society, the economy, and many families. Studying its fluctuation is either the requirement of real estate management in practice, or the requirement of maintaining a stable and healthy development of the residential real estate and its relevance industry. It is necessary to draw up the correlative policies to modulate on urban residential market. It plays an important role in the theory and in practice.
Based on a review of its current condition and development home and abroad, the thesis systematically expounds some achievements in the theory and the methodology about the fluctuation of urban residential real estate market.
In this thesis the relationship between the variable of the fluctuation of urban residential real estate market and macroeconomic variable and real estate economic variable is proposed and discussed successfully. Based on the collected economic data in China, and theory about the relationship between the variable of the fluctuation of urban residential real estate market and general economic conditions, indexes associated with the fluctuation of urban residential real estate market have been designed by adapting to the data analysis method. The relationship between the variable of the fluctuation and economic variable has been discussed quantitatively by Granger causality test. A case has been applied in China and some proposes have been introduced.
This thesis also proposes a method of the analysis on the fluctuation of urban residential real estate market, based on the discussion about the overall rate. On the foundation of the residential real estate market dynamics theory, the arithmetic and the testing models about analyzing the fluctuation of urban residential real estate market have been dissertated. By means of the model, the scope and the potential of the fluctuation can be making sure. The difference between the real cycle and the apparent cycle of residential real estate market can be distinguished.
Two kinds of models by estimating pool equations and panel estimation have been constructed. Based on the idea of Reduced Form Model, by adopting lags-adjustment or not, time-series dynamics models of the fluctuation of urban residential real estate market, in which the endogenetic and the exogenous sensitive variable include, have been estimated. In logarithmic form the models are applied in a case. On the other hand, the fluctuation dynamics equations of residential real estate market by means of panel data have been estimated. The models have been applied in 15 cities of China.
The concept and the arithmetic of Urban Residential Real Estate market Integration Boom Index (BI) have been dissertated in this thesis. Based on the prosperity index method and the suitable improvement to the calculation method of the diffusion index, the concept of“comparison of the precision”,including the diffusion index ( DI ) and the composite index (CI ),has been introduced. Residential Real Estate market Integration Boom Index can be dissertated by means of comparing the precision of the two indexes ( DI andCI ) in order to eliminate the contradiction between the two indexes.
According to the theory and the methodology of fluctuation measurement of urban residential real estate market in this thesis, there is a guidance to develop the early warning system of urban real estate market fluctuation successfully. This system has passed the appraisal in 2004.
本文在对国内外房地产波动理论和住宅市场波动研究现状进行综述的基础上,系统地论述了有关住宅与房地产市场波动理论与方法的研究成果。
提出并论述了城市宏观经济变量、房地产经济变量与住宅市场波动之间的定性和定量关系。本文根据城市商品住宅市场与城市宏观经济变量、房地产经济变量关系的理论分析,立足于我国宏观及样点城市的数据基础,采用数据分析方法,设置城市住宅市场波动指标,依据Granger检验理论和方法,计量分析了宏观经济变量、房地产经济变量与住宅市场波动之间的互动关系,并以我国住宅市场为对象进行了实证研究。
提出并构建了基于直接资本化率的住宅市场波动分析模型,讨论了住宅市场时序动态模型和横截面动态模型。论文在分析现行住宅市场波动模型的基础上,根据城市住宅市场动力学理论分析住宅市场波动系统,在提出了直接资本化率计算和检验的数学模型以后,依据直接资本化率的特性,从商品住宅市场、住宅租赁市场互动的角度分析出商品住宅市场波动的幅度、波位以及与客观价值的偏离的程度,并对案例城市住宅市场波动进行了实证研究。同时,借助缩约模型的基本思想,将住宅市场波动的外生和内生敏感性因素纳入到城市住宅市场的动态分析中,从纵向角度引入非时滞调整和时滞调整的两类模式,构筑了不同形式的住宅市场波动的时序动态模型,采用对数模型估算案例城市商品住宅市场的时序动态波动状况。另一方面,从横向角度构建了符合我国城市住宅市场运行状况的住宅市场横截面动态模型,以我国15个副省级城市为样本进行了实证分析。
提出了评价城市住宅市场波动状态的城市住宅市场综合景气指数的概念及其算法模型。文中在对DI与CI指数向量进行数据处理并建立整合基础以后,依据DI值与CI值的精度分析,摒弃主观判断的处理方法,按照各自中误差的高低和权重计算理论与思想,确定各整合基础数据所载商品住宅市场信息量的权重,最后对其进行加权平均,构筑了住宅商品市场波动评价的综合景气指数的确定理论和实际操作系统。
依据以上住宅市场波动度量的理论与模型,指导设计并研制了样点城市房地产市场预警预报系统,该实证研究项目于2004年通过了成果鉴定,并获得部市级科技进步二等奖。目前已投入实际运行阶段。
In the field of real estate, measurement and analysis of the fluctuation of the real estate market has become very much a pioneering research issue. As an important component of the property market, the fluctuation of urban residential real estate market can have significant impact on the society, the economy, and many families. Studying its fluctuation is either the requirement of real estate management in practice, or the requirement of maintaining a stable and healthy development of the residential real estate and its relevance industry. It is necessary to draw up the correlative policies to modulate on urban residential market. It plays an important role in the theory and in practice.
Based on a review of its current condition and development home and abroad, the thesis systematically expounds some achievements in the theory and the methodology about the fluctuation of urban residential real estate market.
In this thesis the relationship between the variable of the fluctuation of urban residential real estate market and macroeconomic variable and real estate economic variable is proposed and discussed successfully. Based on the collected economic data in China, and theory about the relationship between the variable of the fluctuation of urban residential real estate market and general economic conditions, indexes associated with the fluctuation of urban residential real estate market have been designed by adapting to the data analysis method. The relationship between the variable of the fluctuation and economic variable has been discussed quantitatively by Granger causality test. A case has been applied in China and some proposes have been introduced.
This thesis also proposes a method of the analysis on the fluctuation of urban residential real estate market, based on the discussion about the overall rate. On the foundation of the residential real estate market dynamics theory, the arithmetic and the testing models about analyzing the fluctuation of urban residential real estate market have been dissertated. By means of the model, the scope and the potential of the fluctuation can be making sure. The difference between the real cycle and the apparent cycle of residential real estate market can be distinguished.
Two kinds of models by estimating pool equations and panel estimation have been constructed. Based on the idea of Reduced Form Model, by adopting lags-adjustment or not, time-series dynamics models of the fluctuation of urban residential real estate market, in which the endogenetic and the exogenous sensitive variable include, have been estimated. In logarithmic form the models are applied in a case. On the other hand, the fluctuation dynamics equations of residential real estate market by means of panel data have been estimated. The models have been applied in 15 cities of China.
The concept and the arithmetic of Urban Residential Real Estate market Integration Boom Index (BI) have been dissertated in this thesis. Based on the prosperity index method and the suitable improvement to the calculation method of the diffusion index, the concept of“comparison of the precision”,including the diffusion index ( DI ) and the composite index (CI ),has been introduced. Residential Real Estate market Integration Boom Index can be dissertated by means of comparing the precision of the two indexes ( DI andCI ) in order to eliminate the contradiction between the two indexes.
According to the theory and the methodology of fluctuation measurement of urban residential real estate market in this thesis, there is a guidance to develop the early warning system of urban real estate market fluctuation successfully. This system has passed the appraisal in 2004.
引文
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