可预知灾难性事件下城市群应急交通疏散模型及分析
|
摘要
过去的几十年以来,全球气候不断变化,气温不断升高,冰川融化,海平面上升,近十年以来海啸、飓风(我国称之为台风)频繁发生,袭击全球各地沿海区域,造成人员丧生和财产损失。诸如袭击中国上海、浙江、福建等地的台风,袭击美国密西西比州、路易斯安那州、德克萨斯州的飓风katrina,Rita、Ike、Gustav等。全球气候变暖、海啸飓风爆发频率增加的同时,城市化进程不断进行：海岸线人口不断增加、集聚,随之带来城市发展的一个现象：城市群(mega region)的形成。
近五十年来,全球人口不断增长,在一些区域,原本相距较远的单独城市,城市人口和城市规模不断增长,多个城市最终连接成人口分布在较广区域,延续几百公里的城市组团,其被称为城市群。目前,我国有三个典型城市群：长三角城市群、珠三角城市群和环渤海城市群；美国有两个典型的城市群：波士顿-纽约-费城-巴尔的摩-华盛顿哥伦比亚特区城市群、南加州圣地亚哥-洛杉矶城市群和多个潜在的城市群。在世界范围内,类似的城市群在印度、巴西、日本、南非、欧洲等世界各地迅速扩张和发展。
伴随着全球气候变暖、灾难性事件的频发和城市群的快速发展。突发性气候灾难威胁城市群数以百万的人口的可能性在不断增加。灾难性事件下应急管理方法之一是采用大区域交通疏散,将危险区域的人员疏散到安全区域,即应急交通疏散。然而,包括数百万车辆,数千万人口的城市群应急交通疏散尚未被研究者纳入实际研究领域,本研究将就城市群应急交通疏散的模型构建、分析方法作一个初步的探索。
本文提出城市群应急交通疏散模型参数要求和四阶段建模步骤,构建一个城市群应急交通疏散微观仿真模型,该仿真模型将被用于城市群的应急交通疏散研究。研究中使用一个理论上的城市群,即墨西哥湾城市群(路易斯安娜州新奥尔良大都市圈延伸至德克萨斯州休斯敦大都市圈)作为研究区域,尽管该城市群的规模尚不够巨大,但其仍涵盖了1200万人口,且在未来时间内,人口还会继续增加；选择该区域的另—原因在于研究者所在课题组已经构建过新奥尔良区域的交通仿真模型,因而,在现有研究基础上,可以将模型区域向西扩展,进而构建一个涵盖6个大都市圈的城市群应急交通疏散模型。
该模型融合地理信息系统,疏散需求预测模型和交通仿真分析平台(The Trans-portation Analysis and Simulation System, TRANSIMS)构建,能够整合利用现有的人口数据和地理信息数据来构建人口和网络信息,模型弹性较好,能够适应未来人口增长和道路网络的变化。研究中,构建虚拟飓风情境,进行模型实验再现疏散演化过程,人口变化、道路网络、疏散者行为以及区域管理策略都将被测试,以研究上述变量和交通系统表现之间的关系。从中得出在不同情形下的关键通道速度时空分布图,流量时空分布图,网络瓶颈位置,网络清空时间,宏观网络交通有效性指标等。进一步分析表明：疏散交通需求、交通管理策略对于交通表现指标有决定性的作用,通过曲线拟合的方法,构建了网络交通表现函数,以预测在不同的疏散需求和管理策略组合下,城市群道路网络的综合表现指标值,以及在需求和管理策略发生变化的情况下,城市群道路网络的疏散交通状况会发生何种改变,研究了网络清空时间的数学分布和分区域分时段疏散策略制定的数学方法,基于此提出了城市群应急交通疏散策略制定方法和步骤,为应急交通管理者和决策者提供信息支撑,做出合理决策。
由于飓风的多发性和典型性,人们在飓风下的疏散行为和其他可预知灾难性事件下的行为类似,以上研究成果不仅有助于人们更加深入理解城市群应急交通疏散现象,而且可以将其应用于不同区域,人口、道路网络结构城市群,包括飓风在类的可预知灾难性事件下的应急交通规划、管理和分析。
Over the past decade, there has been a growing census of long range climatological forecasters that the earth is experiencing significant changes in its climate. These changes, particularly those related to ocean warming and sea-level rise threaten coastal regions throughout the world. More active and severe weather patterns thought to be linked to the-se conditions appear to be increasing both the frequency and severity of tropical storm sys-tems. Adding to the level of threat over this same period has been a parallel explosion of population growth along coastal regions worldwide. These increases have given rise to a new phenomenon or urban development, known as the mega region.
Mega regions are continuously populated areas that have grown together over time from distinctly separate individual cities or populated areas to form continuously densely popu-lated areas that may span over many hundreds of miles. In the United States, there are two obvious mega regions, including the Boston-New York-Philadelphia-Baltimore-Washington DC area and the San Diego-Los Angeles region of Southern California with the potential to have several more in Florida, the Midwest-Great Lakes, and the Gulf Coast areas within the next25to50years. These areas are dwarfed, however, by mega regions in other areas of the world. The Hong Kong, Shenhzen, and Guangzhou Region of China, that includes about120million people is considered the world's first mega region. Similar trends are occurring elsewhere in China as well as in India, Brazil, Japan, and West Africa.
When the trends of climate change and population growth are combined, it is inevitable that there will also be a significant increase in the number of catastrophic disasters that can threaten millions of people. With this realization also comes the need to plan and prepare for such occurrences. One of the basic tools of emergency management is the use of re-gional mass evacuations. However, the idea of conducting a mega region evacuation that could include tens of millions of people has never been realistically considered. This re-search seeks to take the initial steps toward investigating the mega region evacuation issue.
In the research, a traffic simulation model was developed to analyze traffic conditions associated with a mega region mass emergency evacuation. Similar to the growth process of actual mega regions, the mega region test case used in the research was developed for a theoretical mega region along the US Gulf Coast from New Orleans to Houston. While this area cannot yet be considered a true mega region, it does encompass a population of about12million people with the potential for considerable growth in the future. It was also se-lected because two regional evacuation traffic simulation models have already been devel- oped for New Orleans and Houston. Thus, the test mega region was formed by "con-necting" those two separate models with those of the Baton Rouge, Lafayette, Lake Charles, and Beaumont regions in between.
The model was constructed using the TRANSIMS mesoscopic activity-based transpor-tation modeling system. TRANSIMS was thought to be well-suited to the research plan because it permits the development of the simulation because it is able to utilize existing census and geographical data to build populations and networks. These can then be modi-fied to represent future growth and development with the region. In the research, a range of population, road network, behavioral response, and regional transportation management strategies were evaluated to examine the relationship between these various variables and the performance of the transportation system.Thus, speed time-space plots and volume time-space plots on critical corridors as well as the Macroscopic measure of performance (Macro MOE) can be draw for different scenarios. A further analysis demonstrated that evacuation demand as well as management strategies, such as contraflow and staged evacua-tion play important role in the evacuation process. A mathematical method, curve fitting was applied to extract network performance function in respond to demand and management strategies from the simulation results. Such function, not only can be used to estimate net-work performance given demand and management plans, but also be able to analyze how network performance would change in case one or two parameters changed. Such infor-mation can be used for emergency authorities and government stake holders to make deci-sions in the object of help evacuees get out of endangered areas safely as fast as possible.
It is expected that the knowledge and results gained from this research will be adaptable to evaluate other locations with different road network, population, transportation, and haz-ard threats.
近五十年来,全球人口不断增长,在一些区域,原本相距较远的单独城市,城市人口和城市规模不断增长,多个城市最终连接成人口分布在较广区域,延续几百公里的城市组团,其被称为城市群。目前,我国有三个典型城市群：长三角城市群、珠三角城市群和环渤海城市群；美国有两个典型的城市群：波士顿-纽约-费城-巴尔的摩-华盛顿哥伦比亚特区城市群、南加州圣地亚哥-洛杉矶城市群和多个潜在的城市群。在世界范围内,类似的城市群在印度、巴西、日本、南非、欧洲等世界各地迅速扩张和发展。
伴随着全球气候变暖、灾难性事件的频发和城市群的快速发展。突发性气候灾难威胁城市群数以百万的人口的可能性在不断增加。灾难性事件下应急管理方法之一是采用大区域交通疏散,将危险区域的人员疏散到安全区域,即应急交通疏散。然而,包括数百万车辆,数千万人口的城市群应急交通疏散尚未被研究者纳入实际研究领域,本研究将就城市群应急交通疏散的模型构建、分析方法作一个初步的探索。
本文提出城市群应急交通疏散模型参数要求和四阶段建模步骤,构建一个城市群应急交通疏散微观仿真模型,该仿真模型将被用于城市群的应急交通疏散研究。研究中使用一个理论上的城市群,即墨西哥湾城市群(路易斯安娜州新奥尔良大都市圈延伸至德克萨斯州休斯敦大都市圈)作为研究区域,尽管该城市群的规模尚不够巨大,但其仍涵盖了1200万人口,且在未来时间内,人口还会继续增加；选择该区域的另—原因在于研究者所在课题组已经构建过新奥尔良区域的交通仿真模型,因而,在现有研究基础上,可以将模型区域向西扩展,进而构建一个涵盖6个大都市圈的城市群应急交通疏散模型。
该模型融合地理信息系统,疏散需求预测模型和交通仿真分析平台(The Trans-portation Analysis and Simulation System, TRANSIMS)构建,能够整合利用现有的人口数据和地理信息数据来构建人口和网络信息,模型弹性较好,能够适应未来人口增长和道路网络的变化。研究中,构建虚拟飓风情境,进行模型实验再现疏散演化过程,人口变化、道路网络、疏散者行为以及区域管理策略都将被测试,以研究上述变量和交通系统表现之间的关系。从中得出在不同情形下的关键通道速度时空分布图,流量时空分布图,网络瓶颈位置,网络清空时间,宏观网络交通有效性指标等。进一步分析表明：疏散交通需求、交通管理策略对于交通表现指标有决定性的作用,通过曲线拟合的方法,构建了网络交通表现函数,以预测在不同的疏散需求和管理策略组合下,城市群道路网络的综合表现指标值,以及在需求和管理策略发生变化的情况下,城市群道路网络的疏散交通状况会发生何种改变,研究了网络清空时间的数学分布和分区域分时段疏散策略制定的数学方法,基于此提出了城市群应急交通疏散策略制定方法和步骤,为应急交通管理者和决策者提供信息支撑,做出合理决策。
由于飓风的多发性和典型性,人们在飓风下的疏散行为和其他可预知灾难性事件下的行为类似,以上研究成果不仅有助于人们更加深入理解城市群应急交通疏散现象,而且可以将其应用于不同区域,人口、道路网络结构城市群,包括飓风在类的可预知灾难性事件下的应急交通规划、管理和分析。
Over the past decade, there has been a growing census of long range climatological forecasters that the earth is experiencing significant changes in its climate. These changes, particularly those related to ocean warming and sea-level rise threaten coastal regions throughout the world. More active and severe weather patterns thought to be linked to the-se conditions appear to be increasing both the frequency and severity of tropical storm sys-tems. Adding to the level of threat over this same period has been a parallel explosion of population growth along coastal regions worldwide. These increases have given rise to a new phenomenon or urban development, known as the mega region.
Mega regions are continuously populated areas that have grown together over time from distinctly separate individual cities or populated areas to form continuously densely popu-lated areas that may span over many hundreds of miles. In the United States, there are two obvious mega regions, including the Boston-New York-Philadelphia-Baltimore-Washington DC area and the San Diego-Los Angeles region of Southern California with the potential to have several more in Florida, the Midwest-Great Lakes, and the Gulf Coast areas within the next25to50years. These areas are dwarfed, however, by mega regions in other areas of the world. The Hong Kong, Shenhzen, and Guangzhou Region of China, that includes about120million people is considered the world's first mega region. Similar trends are occurring elsewhere in China as well as in India, Brazil, Japan, and West Africa.
When the trends of climate change and population growth are combined, it is inevitable that there will also be a significant increase in the number of catastrophic disasters that can threaten millions of people. With this realization also comes the need to plan and prepare for such occurrences. One of the basic tools of emergency management is the use of re-gional mass evacuations. However, the idea of conducting a mega region evacuation that could include tens of millions of people has never been realistically considered. This re-search seeks to take the initial steps toward investigating the mega region evacuation issue.
In the research, a traffic simulation model was developed to analyze traffic conditions associated with a mega region mass emergency evacuation. Similar to the growth process of actual mega regions, the mega region test case used in the research was developed for a theoretical mega region along the US Gulf Coast from New Orleans to Houston. While this area cannot yet be considered a true mega region, it does encompass a population of about12million people with the potential for considerable growth in the future. It was also se-lected because two regional evacuation traffic simulation models have already been devel- oped for New Orleans and Houston. Thus, the test mega region was formed by "con-necting" those two separate models with those of the Baton Rouge, Lafayette, Lake Charles, and Beaumont regions in between.
The model was constructed using the TRANSIMS mesoscopic activity-based transpor-tation modeling system. TRANSIMS was thought to be well-suited to the research plan because it permits the development of the simulation because it is able to utilize existing census and geographical data to build populations and networks. These can then be modi-fied to represent future growth and development with the region. In the research, a range of population, road network, behavioral response, and regional transportation management strategies were evaluated to examine the relationship between these various variables and the performance of the transportation system.Thus, speed time-space plots and volume time-space plots on critical corridors as well as the Macroscopic measure of performance (Macro MOE) can be draw for different scenarios. A further analysis demonstrated that evacuation demand as well as management strategies, such as contraflow and staged evacua-tion play important role in the evacuation process. A mathematical method, curve fitting was applied to extract network performance function in respond to demand and management strategies from the simulation results. Such function, not only can be used to estimate net-work performance given demand and management plans, but also be able to analyze how network performance would change in case one or two parameters changed. Such infor-mation can be used for emergency authorities and government stake holders to make deci-sions in the object of help evacuees get out of endangered areas safely as fast as possible.
It is expected that the knowledge and results gained from this research will be adaptable to evaluate other locations with different road network, population, transportation, and haz-ard threats.
引文
1. Bender, M. A. et al. "Model impact of anthropogenic warming on the frequency of in-tense Atlantic hurricanes." Science,2010.327:454-458.
2. National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration Website. http://www.csc.noaa.gov/hurricanes/#. Accessed Aug 10,2012
3. Gottman, Jean. Megalopolis:The Urbanized Northeastern Seaboard of the United States. New York:Twentieth Century Fund.1961.
4. Hagler, Yoav.Defining U.S. Megaregions. New York, NY:Regional Plan Associa-tion.2009.
5. Hurricanes in the US. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Katrina. Accessed Aug 10.2012.
6. Paul Toohey, Agencies,Mass evacuations as US prepares for mega-storm Hurricane Sandy, October 29,2012, http://www.news.com.au/news/growing-fears-as-frankenstorm-approaches/story-fncvfxcm-1226 504397684, Accessed Oct,30,2012
7.鹿世瑾.福建气候[M].北京：气象出版社,1999：73-92
8.魏应植,影响福建台风的路径、灾害和风雨特征研究[C].中国气象学会.2007年年会天气预报预警和影响评估技术分会场论文集.2007：394-403
9. Sheffi, Y., Mahmassani, H.s. and Powell, W. NETVAC:A Transportation Network Evacuation Model. Internal report, Center for Transportation Studies, Massachusetts In-stitute of Technology, United States.1980
10. Thomas Urbanik. Evacuation time estimates for nuclear power plants.Journal of Haz-ardous Materials.2000,(75):165-180
11. Baker, E.J. Hurricane Evacuation Behavior. International Journal of Mass Emergencies and Disasters,1991,9(2):287-310.
12. Southworth, F. Regional Evacuation Modeling:A State of the Art Review. Report. Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee.1991.
13. Wolshon, Brian, Joseph Lefante, Hana Naghawi, Thomas Montz, and Vinayak Dixit. Application of TRANSIMS for the Multimodal Microscale Simulation of the New Orle-ans Emergency Evacuation Plan, technical report. July,2009.
14. Brian Wolshon, Gregoris Theodoulou, and Yu Yik "Erick" Lim. Modeling Hurri-caneEvacuation Traffic-Evaluation ofFreeway Contraflow Evacuation Initiation and TerminationPoint Configurations. Technical report. June,2010.
15.宫建.奥运应急交通疏散路径选择模型研究[D].北京工业大学硕士论文.2007.
16.韦献兰.突发公共事件应急交通疏散对策研究[D].北京交通大学硕士论文.2008.
17.胡红,蒋光胜,杨孝宽,刘小明.基于Link-node仿真的北京奥运应急交通疏散预案研究[J].北京工业大学学报.2007,(11)：1187-1192
18. Killian, Lewis M. Evacuation of Panama city before Hurricane Florence. National Re-search Council Disaster study. Washington DC:National Academy of Sciences.1954
19. Moore Harry E., Frederic L. Bates. Before the Wind:a study of Response to Hurricane Carla. National Research Council Disaster study 19. Washington DC:National Academy of Sciences.1963
20. Wilkinson, Kenneth P. and Peggy Ross. Citizen's Response to Warning of Hurricane Camille. Social Science Research Center Report 35. State college, MS. Mississippi State University.1970.
21. Baker Earl J., John C. Brigham, Anthony J. The Social Impact of Hurricane Eloise on Panama City, Florida. Florida Sea Grant technical Paper. Gainesville, Florida: University of Florida.1977.
22. Nelson, Carnot. Post-Hurricane Survey of Evacuation Sheltered in the Tampa Bay Re-gion During Hurricane Elena in 1985. Tampa, Florida:University of South Florida.1988.
23. U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Criteria for Preparation and Evaluation of Radio-logical Emergency Response Plans and Preparedness in Support of Nuclear Power Plants, for Interim Use and Comment, NUREG-0654, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, DC,1980.
24. T. Urbanik, A. Desrosier, M.K. Lindell, C.R. Schuller, Analysis of Techniques for Esti-mating Evacuation Times for Emergency Planning Zones, NUREG/CR-1745, U.S. Nu-clear Regulatory Commission, Washington, DC,1980.
25. Golding, D. and Kasperson, E.R. Emergency planning and nuclear power-looking at the next accident. Land Use Policy,1988:19-36.
26. Sorensen, J.H. Evacuations due to chemical accidents:experience from 1980 to 1984. Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee.1986
27. Southworth, F. and Chin, S-M. Network Evacuation Modeling For Flooding as a Result of Dam Failure. Environment and Planning A,1987, (19):1543-1558
28. Perry, R.W. and Greene, M.R. Citizen Response to Volcanic Eruptions. Irvington Pub-lishers, New York.1983
29. Pel, A.J., Bliemer, M.C.J. and Hoogendoorn, S.P. A Review on Evacuation Travel Be-havior Modeling and Simulation. Transportation.2011
30. Matthew Hardy, Karl Wunderlich. Evacuation Management Operations (EMO) Model-ing Assessment:Transportation Modeling Inventory. - Final report, Noblis Inc., Falls Church,Virginia,for the Research and Innovative Technology Administration,2007
31. Rontiris, K. and W. Crous, Emergency Evacuation Modeling for the Koeberg Nuclear Power Station.
32. Moriarty, K.D., D. Ni, and J. Collura. Modeling Traffic Flow under Emergency Evacua-tion Situations:Current Practice and Future Directions.86thTRB Annual Meeting. Washington, DC.2007
33. Rathi, A.K. and R.S. Solanki, Simulation of Traffic Flow During Emergency Evacua-tions:A Microcomputer Based Modeling System. Proceedings of the 1993 Winter Sim-ulation Conference.1993
34. Oak Ridge Evacuation Modeling System (OREMS). Oak Ridge National Laborato-ry.2005
35. TransCAD User Manu. cited 2007 May 16, Available from:www.caliper.com.
36. Regional Emergency Coordination Planning Transportation Technical Compendium for Agency Use.Metropolitan Vashington Council of Governments,2004:51.
37. Brian Wolson. "ONE-WAY-OUT":contraflow freeway operation for hurricane evacua-tion. Natural Hazards Review,2001.2(3)
38. Brian Wolshon, Gregoris Theodoulou, and Yu Yik "Erick" Lim. Modeling Hurricane Evacuation Traffic-Evaluation of Freeway Contraflow Evacuation Initiation and Ter-mination Point Configurations. Technical report. June,2010.
39. Proceedings from the Contra Flow Workshop, in Contra Flow Workshop. Orlando, FL.2006.
40. Balakrishna, R., Wen, Y., Ben-Akiva, M. and Antoniou, C. Simulation-based Framework for Transportation Network Management for Emergencies. Transportation Research Record,2008,(2041):80-88.
41. Pel, Bliemer and Hoogendoorn, Modeling traveler behavior under emergency evacua-tion conditions. EJTIR 11(2),2011:166-193
42. Meisam Akbarzadeh, Dynamic Route Choice in Hurricane Evacuation, Louisiana State University, Ph.D Thesis,2012.
43. White, W. Personal communication with author regarding Cube Avenue. May 30,2007.
44. Kwon, E. and S. Pitt, Evaluation of Emergency Evacuation Strategies for Downtown Event Traffic Using a Dynamic Network Model. Transportation Research Record.2006, 1922:149-155.
45. Chiu, Y.-C., Texas Disaster Preparedness Study:Task 3 "Develop and Test Innovative Contraflow Applications/Operations".2007.
46. Vinayak Dixit, Thomas Montz, and Brian Wolshon. Validation Techniques for Re-gion-Level Microscopic Mass Evacuation Traffic Simulations. Transportation Research Record.2011,2229:66-74
47. Lighthill, M., Whitham, G.. On kinematic waves II:a theory of traffic flow on long crowded roads. Proc. Royal Society of London, Part A 1955,229 (1178):317-345.
48. Carlos F. Daganzo. The Cell Transmission Modell:A Dynamic Representation of Highway Traffic Consistent with the Hydrodynamic Theory. Transportation Research-B,1994,28(4):269-287.
49. Majed Al-Mashari, Mohamed Zairi. BPR implementation process:an analysis of key success and failure factors. Business Process Management Journal.1999,5:87-112
50. Thomas J. Cova, Justin P. Johnson. A network flow model for lane-based evacuation routing. Transportation Research Part A.2003,37:579-604.
51. Dunn, C.E., Newton, D. Optimal routes in GIS and emergency planning applications. 1992,24:259-267.
52. Ford, L.R., Fulkerson, D.R., Flows in Networks. Princeton University Press, Prince-ton.1962
53. Fu, H., Wilmot, C.G.,E. J. Baker, A Sequential Logit Dynamic Travel Demand Model and its Transferability.Transportation Research Record.2006,1977:17-26.
54. H. Fu and C.G. Wilmot. "A Sequential Logit Dynamic Travel Demand Model for Hurri-cane Evacuation", Transportation Research Record.2004,188:19-26.
55. Ravindra, Gudishala, "Development of a time dependent, audio-visual, stated choice method of data collection for hurricane evacuation behavior", Ph.D. dissertation, Louisi-ana State University,2011.
56. Ravindra, Gudishala and C.G. Wilmot. A Comparison of Time-Dependent Sequential Logit and Nested Logit for Modeling Hurricane Evacuation Demand. Transportation Research Record.2012,2312:134-140.
57. Yuan, F., Han, L.D., Chin, S., Hwang, H, Proposed framework for simultaneous optimi-zation of evacuation traffic destination and route assignment. Transportation Research Record.2006,1964:50-58
58. Cova, T.J., Johnson, J.P.:Microsimulation of neighborhood evacuations in the urban-wildlife interface. Environment and Planning A.2002,34(12):2211-2229
59. Lindell, M.K.:EMBLEM2:an empirically based large scale evacuation time estimate model. Transportation Research Part A.2008,42:14-154
60. Kalafatas, G., Peeta, S., Planning for evacuation:insights from an efficient network de-sign model. J. Infrastruct. Syst.2009,15(1):21-30
61. Xie, C., Lin, D.Y., Waller, S.T., A dynamic evacuation network optimization problem with lane reversal and crossing elimination strategies. Transportation Research Part E. 2010,46:295-316
62. Guangxiang Cheng. Dynamic Trip DistributionModelsFor Hurricane Evacuation. Loui-siana State University, Ph.D thesis.2010:43-44
63. Cheng, G., Wilmot,C.,& Baker,E. A Destination Choice Model for Hurricane Evacuation. 88th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board(CD-ROM), Washington, D.C. USA.2008.
64. Dow, K., and Cutter, S. L.Emerging Hurricane Evacuation Issues:Hurricane Floyd and South Carolina. Natural Hazard Review,2002,3(1):12-18.
65. FEMA. "Southeast United States Hurricane Evacuation Traffic Study-Executive Summary (draft)," Washington, D.C.2000
66. Theodoulou, G. Contraflow Evacuation on the Westbound 1-10 out of theCity of New Orleans, Master Thesis, Louisiana State University, BatonRouge, LA.2003.
67. Chiu, Yi-Chang; Zheng, Hong; Villalobos, Jorge A.; Peacock, Walter; and Henk, Russell Evaluating Regional Contra-Flow and Phased Evacuation Strategies for Texas Using a Large-Scale Dynamic Traffic Simulation and Assignment Approach, Journal of Home-land Securityand Emergency Management:2008,5(1)
68. Franzese O. and Han L.D.,A Methodology for the Assessment of TrafficManagement Strategies for Large-Scale Emergency Evacuations.Proceeding of ITS,2001
69. Sisiopiku V.P., Jones S., Sullivan A., Sullivan A.J., Patharkar S,. and Tang X, "Re-gional Traffic Simulation for Emergency Preparedness." TechnicalReport 03226 to the University Transportation Center for Alabama.2004.
70. Ming Chen, Traffic Signal Timing for Urban Evacuation, Master Thesis,University of Maryland,2005.
71. ZhengfengHuang, Active Traffic Control for Oversaturated Intersection Group in Emergency Evacuation, CICTP 2012:Multimodal Transportation Systems-Convenient, Safe, Cost-Effective, Efficient,Beijing, ASCE.2012
72. X Chen and F B Zhan, Agent-based modelling and simulation of urban evacuation:rela-tive effectiveness of simultaneous and staged evacuation strategies, Journal of the Opera-tional Research Society.2007,59:25-33.
73. Yue Liu, Gang-Len Chang1, Ying Liu1, Xiaorong Lai1, Corridor-Based En ergency Evacuation System for Washington, D.C.:System Development and Case Study, Trans-portation Research Record.2008,2041:58-67
74. Chen, Xuwei, Microsimulation of Hurricane Evacuation Strategies of Galveston Island, The Professional Geographer.2008,60(2)
75. Ying Liu, Xiaorong Lai and Gang-Len Chang, A Cell-Based Network Optimization Model for Staged Evacuation Planning Under Emergencies, Transportation Research Board of the National Academies,2008.
76. Mitchell, S. and A. E. Radwan. Heuristic Prioritization of Emergency Evacuation Stag-ing to Reduce Clearance Time. Presented at 85th Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board, Washington, D. C.,2006
77. Hediye Tuydes, Athanasios Ziliaskopoulos, Tabu-Based Heuristic Approach for Optimi-zation of Network Evacuation Contraflow,Transportation Research Record.2006,1964: 157-168
78.安实,崔建勋,王健.国外道路交通应急区域疏散研究综述[J].交通运输系统工程与信息.2008,6：38-45
79.林建新,韦献兰,吴海燕,张蕊,基于S-曲线的时变交通应急疏散需求预测[J].交通信息与安全.2009,3：92-96
80.张培红岳丽红,最优应急疏散路线动态模型的研究[J].人类工效学.2001,1：10-13
81.高明霞,贺国光.动态系统最优的疏散路线与出发时间综合优化模型[J].系统工程.2009,6：73-77
82.崔建勋,安实,崔娜,基于元胞传输模型的区域疏散动态交通分配[J].哈尔滨工业大学学报.2010,1：123-127
83.陈岳明,萧德云.应急交通疏散建模及算法研究[J].交通运输系统工程与信息.2008,6：96-100
84.陈岳明,萧德云.基于动态交通分配的路网应急疏散模型[J].清华大学学报：自然科学版.2009,8：1102-1105
85.陈岳明,萧德云.基于动态交通分配的实时应急疏散交通管理[J].科学技术与工程.2008,15：4221-4227
86.宋永朝,潘晓东,杨轸,叱诚.灾害事件下局域路网应急疏散交通分配模型[J].公路交通科技.2010,5：88-92
87.高明霞,贺国光,考虑交叉口延误和通行能力优化疏散救援路线的最小费用流模型[J].系统工程.2006,9：6-10
88.高明霞,贺国光,考虑交叉口特性的疏散交通路线研究[J].土木工程学报.2007,6：80-83
89.杨兆升,宋淑敏,杜鹏程,杨薇,大型公共场所应急状态下交通诱导疏散模型[J].吉林大学学报工学版.2012,3：588-593
90.王海峰,上官志洪等,核电厂核事故应急疏散研究[J].中国安全科学学报.2010,7：26-31
91.韦春竹,谢元礼等,基于Dial分流的陆上交通应急疏散模型的优化和实现[J].测绘技术装备.2009,4.13-15
92.孙庆峰,孟宪强,基于物联网的应急疏散信息平台构建研究[J]..情报科学.2011,4：566-570
93.Mega regions of the United States. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Megaregions_of_the_United_States, Accessed Aug,2012
94. Knabb, Richard D; Rhome, Jamie R.; Brown, Daniel P, Tropical Cyclone Report:Hurri-cane Katrina.2005:23-30
95. Zhao Zhang, Katherine Spansel and Brian Wolshon. Megaregion Network Simulation for Evacuation Analysis,92nd Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board. Washington, D.C.2013.
96. Ziliaskopoulos and S. Peeta, Foundations of Dynamic Traffic Assignment:The Past, the Present and the Future,83rd Annual Transportation Research Board Meeting, Washing-ton, D.C,2002.
97. Barrett, B., Ran, B. and Pillai, R. Developing A Dynamic Traffic Management Modeling Framework for Hurricane Evacuation,79th Annual TRB Meeting.2000
98. Franzese, O. and Han, D. Traffic Modeling Framework for Hurricane Evacuation,80th Annual TRB Meeting.2010
99. Amemiya, T. Qualitative Response Models, Annals of Economic and Social Measure-ment.1975:363-372.
100.Ben-Akiva, M. and Lerman, S. Discrete Choice Analysis, the MIT Press, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts.1985
101.Huizhao Tu,,Guus Tamminga,Hans Drolenga,Jeroen de Wit, Wouter van der Berg, Evacuation plan of the city of almere:simulating the impact of driving behavior on evacuation clearance time,1st Conference on Evacuation Modeling and Manage-ment,2010,3:67-75
102.TRANSIMS How-to documents.
103.Louisiana Citizen Awareness & Disaster Evacuation Guide Southeast, LADOTD, 2008.
104.Louisiana Citizen Awareness & Disaster Evacuation Guide Southwest, LADOTD, 2008.
105.Summary of Contraflow Operationsfor Hurricane Gustav, technique report, LADOTD, 2008
2. National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration Website. http://www.csc.noaa.gov/hurricanes/#. Accessed Aug 10,2012
3. Gottman, Jean. Megalopolis:The Urbanized Northeastern Seaboard of the United States. New York:Twentieth Century Fund.1961.
4. Hagler, Yoav.Defining U.S. Megaregions. New York, NY:Regional Plan Associa-tion.2009.
5. Hurricanes in the US. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Katrina. Accessed Aug 10.2012.
6. Paul Toohey, Agencies,Mass evacuations as US prepares for mega-storm Hurricane Sandy, October 29,2012, http://www.news.com.au/news/growing-fears-as-frankenstorm-approaches/story-fncvfxcm-1226 504397684, Accessed Oct,30,2012
7.鹿世瑾.福建气候[M].北京：气象出版社,1999：73-92
8.魏应植,影响福建台风的路径、灾害和风雨特征研究[C].中国气象学会.2007年年会天气预报预警和影响评估技术分会场论文集.2007：394-403
9. Sheffi, Y., Mahmassani, H.s. and Powell, W. NETVAC:A Transportation Network Evacuation Model. Internal report, Center for Transportation Studies, Massachusetts In-stitute of Technology, United States.1980
10. Thomas Urbanik. Evacuation time estimates for nuclear power plants.Journal of Haz-ardous Materials.2000,(75):165-180
11. Baker, E.J. Hurricane Evacuation Behavior. International Journal of Mass Emergencies and Disasters,1991,9(2):287-310.
12. Southworth, F. Regional Evacuation Modeling:A State of the Art Review. Report. Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee.1991.
13. Wolshon, Brian, Joseph Lefante, Hana Naghawi, Thomas Montz, and Vinayak Dixit. Application of TRANSIMS for the Multimodal Microscale Simulation of the New Orle-ans Emergency Evacuation Plan, technical report. July,2009.
14. Brian Wolshon, Gregoris Theodoulou, and Yu Yik "Erick" Lim. Modeling Hurri-caneEvacuation Traffic-Evaluation ofFreeway Contraflow Evacuation Initiation and TerminationPoint Configurations. Technical report. June,2010.
15.宫建.奥运应急交通疏散路径选择模型研究[D].北京工业大学硕士论文.2007.
16.韦献兰.突发公共事件应急交通疏散对策研究[D].北京交通大学硕士论文.2008.
17.胡红,蒋光胜,杨孝宽,刘小明.基于Link-node仿真的北京奥运应急交通疏散预案研究[J].北京工业大学学报.2007,(11)：1187-1192
18. Killian, Lewis M. Evacuation of Panama city before Hurricane Florence. National Re-search Council Disaster study. Washington DC:National Academy of Sciences.1954
19. Moore Harry E., Frederic L. Bates. Before the Wind:a study of Response to Hurricane Carla. National Research Council Disaster study 19. Washington DC:National Academy of Sciences.1963
20. Wilkinson, Kenneth P. and Peggy Ross. Citizen's Response to Warning of Hurricane Camille. Social Science Research Center Report 35. State college, MS. Mississippi State University.1970.
21. Baker Earl J., John C. Brigham, Anthony J. The Social Impact of Hurricane Eloise on Panama City, Florida. Florida Sea Grant technical Paper. Gainesville, Florida: University of Florida.1977.
22. Nelson, Carnot. Post-Hurricane Survey of Evacuation Sheltered in the Tampa Bay Re-gion During Hurricane Elena in 1985. Tampa, Florida:University of South Florida.1988.
23. U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Criteria for Preparation and Evaluation of Radio-logical Emergency Response Plans and Preparedness in Support of Nuclear Power Plants, for Interim Use and Comment, NUREG-0654, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, DC,1980.
24. T. Urbanik, A. Desrosier, M.K. Lindell, C.R. Schuller, Analysis of Techniques for Esti-mating Evacuation Times for Emergency Planning Zones, NUREG/CR-1745, U.S. Nu-clear Regulatory Commission, Washington, DC,1980.
25. Golding, D. and Kasperson, E.R. Emergency planning and nuclear power-looking at the next accident. Land Use Policy,1988:19-36.
26. Sorensen, J.H. Evacuations due to chemical accidents:experience from 1980 to 1984. Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee.1986
27. Southworth, F. and Chin, S-M. Network Evacuation Modeling For Flooding as a Result of Dam Failure. Environment and Planning A,1987, (19):1543-1558
28. Perry, R.W. and Greene, M.R. Citizen Response to Volcanic Eruptions. Irvington Pub-lishers, New York.1983
29. Pel, A.J., Bliemer, M.C.J. and Hoogendoorn, S.P. A Review on Evacuation Travel Be-havior Modeling and Simulation. Transportation.2011
30. Matthew Hardy, Karl Wunderlich. Evacuation Management Operations (EMO) Model-ing Assessment:Transportation Modeling Inventory. - Final report, Noblis Inc., Falls Church,Virginia,for the Research and Innovative Technology Administration,2007
31. Rontiris, K. and W. Crous, Emergency Evacuation Modeling for the Koeberg Nuclear Power Station.
32. Moriarty, K.D., D. Ni, and J. Collura. Modeling Traffic Flow under Emergency Evacua-tion Situations:Current Practice and Future Directions.86thTRB Annual Meeting. Washington, DC.2007
33. Rathi, A.K. and R.S. Solanki, Simulation of Traffic Flow During Emergency Evacua-tions:A Microcomputer Based Modeling System. Proceedings of the 1993 Winter Sim-ulation Conference.1993
34. Oak Ridge Evacuation Modeling System (OREMS). Oak Ridge National Laborato-ry.2005
35. TransCAD User Manu. cited 2007 May 16, Available from:www.caliper.com.
36. Regional Emergency Coordination Planning Transportation Technical Compendium for Agency Use.Metropolitan Vashington Council of Governments,2004:51.
37. Brian Wolson. "ONE-WAY-OUT":contraflow freeway operation for hurricane evacua-tion. Natural Hazards Review,2001.2(3)
38. Brian Wolshon, Gregoris Theodoulou, and Yu Yik "Erick" Lim. Modeling Hurricane Evacuation Traffic-Evaluation of Freeway Contraflow Evacuation Initiation and Ter-mination Point Configurations. Technical report. June,2010.
39. Proceedings from the Contra Flow Workshop, in Contra Flow Workshop. Orlando, FL.2006.
40. Balakrishna, R., Wen, Y., Ben-Akiva, M. and Antoniou, C. Simulation-based Framework for Transportation Network Management for Emergencies. Transportation Research Record,2008,(2041):80-88.
41. Pel, Bliemer and Hoogendoorn, Modeling traveler behavior under emergency evacua-tion conditions. EJTIR 11(2),2011:166-193
42. Meisam Akbarzadeh, Dynamic Route Choice in Hurricane Evacuation, Louisiana State University, Ph.D Thesis,2012.
43. White, W. Personal communication with author regarding Cube Avenue. May 30,2007.
44. Kwon, E. and S. Pitt, Evaluation of Emergency Evacuation Strategies for Downtown Event Traffic Using a Dynamic Network Model. Transportation Research Record.2006, 1922:149-155.
45. Chiu, Y.-C., Texas Disaster Preparedness Study:Task 3 "Develop and Test Innovative Contraflow Applications/Operations".2007.
46. Vinayak Dixit, Thomas Montz, and Brian Wolshon. Validation Techniques for Re-gion-Level Microscopic Mass Evacuation Traffic Simulations. Transportation Research Record.2011,2229:66-74
47. Lighthill, M., Whitham, G.. On kinematic waves II:a theory of traffic flow on long crowded roads. Proc. Royal Society of London, Part A 1955,229 (1178):317-345.
48. Carlos F. Daganzo. The Cell Transmission Modell:A Dynamic Representation of Highway Traffic Consistent with the Hydrodynamic Theory. Transportation Research-B,1994,28(4):269-287.
49. Majed Al-Mashari, Mohamed Zairi. BPR implementation process:an analysis of key success and failure factors. Business Process Management Journal.1999,5:87-112
50. Thomas J. Cova, Justin P. Johnson. A network flow model for lane-based evacuation routing. Transportation Research Part A.2003,37:579-604.
51. Dunn, C.E., Newton, D. Optimal routes in GIS and emergency planning applications. 1992,24:259-267.
52. Ford, L.R., Fulkerson, D.R., Flows in Networks. Princeton University Press, Prince-ton.1962
53. Fu, H., Wilmot, C.G.,E. J. Baker, A Sequential Logit Dynamic Travel Demand Model and its Transferability.Transportation Research Record.2006,1977:17-26.
54. H. Fu and C.G. Wilmot. "A Sequential Logit Dynamic Travel Demand Model for Hurri-cane Evacuation", Transportation Research Record.2004,188:19-26.
55. Ravindra, Gudishala, "Development of a time dependent, audio-visual, stated choice method of data collection for hurricane evacuation behavior", Ph.D. dissertation, Louisi-ana State University,2011.
56. Ravindra, Gudishala and C.G. Wilmot. A Comparison of Time-Dependent Sequential Logit and Nested Logit for Modeling Hurricane Evacuation Demand. Transportation Research Record.2012,2312:134-140.
57. Yuan, F., Han, L.D., Chin, S., Hwang, H, Proposed framework for simultaneous optimi-zation of evacuation traffic destination and route assignment. Transportation Research Record.2006,1964:50-58
58. Cova, T.J., Johnson, J.P.:Microsimulation of neighborhood evacuations in the urban-wildlife interface. Environment and Planning A.2002,34(12):2211-2229
59. Lindell, M.K.:EMBLEM2:an empirically based large scale evacuation time estimate model. Transportation Research Part A.2008,42:14-154
60. Kalafatas, G., Peeta, S., Planning for evacuation:insights from an efficient network de-sign model. J. Infrastruct. Syst.2009,15(1):21-30
61. Xie, C., Lin, D.Y., Waller, S.T., A dynamic evacuation network optimization problem with lane reversal and crossing elimination strategies. Transportation Research Part E. 2010,46:295-316
62. Guangxiang Cheng. Dynamic Trip DistributionModelsFor Hurricane Evacuation. Loui-siana State University, Ph.D thesis.2010:43-44
63. Cheng, G., Wilmot,C.,& Baker,E. A Destination Choice Model for Hurricane Evacuation. 88th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board(CD-ROM), Washington, D.C. USA.2008.
64. Dow, K., and Cutter, S. L.Emerging Hurricane Evacuation Issues:Hurricane Floyd and South Carolina. Natural Hazard Review,2002,3(1):12-18.
65. FEMA. "Southeast United States Hurricane Evacuation Traffic Study-Executive Summary (draft)," Washington, D.C.2000
66. Theodoulou, G. Contraflow Evacuation on the Westbound 1-10 out of theCity of New Orleans, Master Thesis, Louisiana State University, BatonRouge, LA.2003.
67. Chiu, Yi-Chang; Zheng, Hong; Villalobos, Jorge A.; Peacock, Walter; and Henk, Russell Evaluating Regional Contra-Flow and Phased Evacuation Strategies for Texas Using a Large-Scale Dynamic Traffic Simulation and Assignment Approach, Journal of Home-land Securityand Emergency Management:2008,5(1)
68. Franzese O. and Han L.D.,A Methodology for the Assessment of TrafficManagement Strategies for Large-Scale Emergency Evacuations.Proceeding of ITS,2001
69. Sisiopiku V.P., Jones S., Sullivan A., Sullivan A.J., Patharkar S,. and Tang X, "Re-gional Traffic Simulation for Emergency Preparedness." TechnicalReport 03226 to the University Transportation Center for Alabama.2004.
70. Ming Chen, Traffic Signal Timing for Urban Evacuation, Master Thesis,University of Maryland,2005.
71. ZhengfengHuang, Active Traffic Control for Oversaturated Intersection Group in Emergency Evacuation, CICTP 2012:Multimodal Transportation Systems-Convenient, Safe, Cost-Effective, Efficient,Beijing, ASCE.2012
72. X Chen and F B Zhan, Agent-based modelling and simulation of urban evacuation:rela-tive effectiveness of simultaneous and staged evacuation strategies, Journal of the Opera-tional Research Society.2007,59:25-33.
73. Yue Liu, Gang-Len Chang1, Ying Liu1, Xiaorong Lai1, Corridor-Based En ergency Evacuation System for Washington, D.C.:System Development and Case Study, Trans-portation Research Record.2008,2041:58-67
74. Chen, Xuwei, Microsimulation of Hurricane Evacuation Strategies of Galveston Island, The Professional Geographer.2008,60(2)
75. Ying Liu, Xiaorong Lai and Gang-Len Chang, A Cell-Based Network Optimization Model for Staged Evacuation Planning Under Emergencies, Transportation Research Board of the National Academies,2008.
76. Mitchell, S. and A. E. Radwan. Heuristic Prioritization of Emergency Evacuation Stag-ing to Reduce Clearance Time. Presented at 85th Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board, Washington, D. C.,2006
77. Hediye Tuydes, Athanasios Ziliaskopoulos, Tabu-Based Heuristic Approach for Optimi-zation of Network Evacuation Contraflow,Transportation Research Record.2006,1964: 157-168
78.安实,崔建勋,王健.国外道路交通应急区域疏散研究综述[J].交通运输系统工程与信息.2008,6：38-45
79.林建新,韦献兰,吴海燕,张蕊,基于S-曲线的时变交通应急疏散需求预测[J].交通信息与安全.2009,3：92-96
80.张培红岳丽红,最优应急疏散路线动态模型的研究[J].人类工效学.2001,1：10-13
81.高明霞,贺国光.动态系统最优的疏散路线与出发时间综合优化模型[J].系统工程.2009,6：73-77
82.崔建勋,安实,崔娜,基于元胞传输模型的区域疏散动态交通分配[J].哈尔滨工业大学学报.2010,1：123-127
83.陈岳明,萧德云.应急交通疏散建模及算法研究[J].交通运输系统工程与信息.2008,6：96-100
84.陈岳明,萧德云.基于动态交通分配的路网应急疏散模型[J].清华大学学报：自然科学版.2009,8：1102-1105
85.陈岳明,萧德云.基于动态交通分配的实时应急疏散交通管理[J].科学技术与工程.2008,15：4221-4227
86.宋永朝,潘晓东,杨轸,叱诚.灾害事件下局域路网应急疏散交通分配模型[J].公路交通科技.2010,5：88-92
87.高明霞,贺国光,考虑交叉口延误和通行能力优化疏散救援路线的最小费用流模型[J].系统工程.2006,9：6-10
88.高明霞,贺国光,考虑交叉口特性的疏散交通路线研究[J].土木工程学报.2007,6：80-83
89.杨兆升,宋淑敏,杜鹏程,杨薇,大型公共场所应急状态下交通诱导疏散模型[J].吉林大学学报工学版.2012,3：588-593
90.王海峰,上官志洪等,核电厂核事故应急疏散研究[J].中国安全科学学报.2010,7：26-31
91.韦春竹,谢元礼等,基于Dial分流的陆上交通应急疏散模型的优化和实现[J].测绘技术装备.2009,4.13-15
92.孙庆峰,孟宪强,基于物联网的应急疏散信息平台构建研究[J]..情报科学.2011,4：566-570
93.Mega regions of the United States. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Megaregions_of_the_United_States, Accessed Aug,2012
94. Knabb, Richard D; Rhome, Jamie R.; Brown, Daniel P, Tropical Cyclone Report:Hurri-cane Katrina.2005:23-30
95. Zhao Zhang, Katherine Spansel and Brian Wolshon. Megaregion Network Simulation for Evacuation Analysis,92nd Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board. Washington, D.C.2013.
96. Ziliaskopoulos and S. Peeta, Foundations of Dynamic Traffic Assignment:The Past, the Present and the Future,83rd Annual Transportation Research Board Meeting, Washing-ton, D.C,2002.
97. Barrett, B., Ran, B. and Pillai, R. Developing A Dynamic Traffic Management Modeling Framework for Hurricane Evacuation,79th Annual TRB Meeting.2000
98. Franzese, O. and Han, D. Traffic Modeling Framework for Hurricane Evacuation,80th Annual TRB Meeting.2010
99. Amemiya, T. Qualitative Response Models, Annals of Economic and Social Measure-ment.1975:363-372.
100.Ben-Akiva, M. and Lerman, S. Discrete Choice Analysis, the MIT Press, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts.1985
101.Huizhao Tu,,Guus Tamminga,Hans Drolenga,Jeroen de Wit, Wouter van der Berg, Evacuation plan of the city of almere:simulating the impact of driving behavior on evacuation clearance time,1st Conference on Evacuation Modeling and Manage-ment,2010,3:67-75
102.TRANSIMS How-to documents.
103.Louisiana Citizen Awareness & Disaster Evacuation Guide Southeast, LADOTD, 2008.
104.Louisiana Citizen Awareness & Disaster Evacuation Guide Southwest, LADOTD, 2008.
105.Summary of Contraflow Operationsfor Hurricane Gustav, technique report, LADOTD, 2008