中国肉鸡生产的成本收益与效率研究
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摘要
我国肉鸡产业经过三十年的持续快速发展，已成为畜牧业中产业化、市场化和规模化程度最高的行业，在解决农村劳动力就业，增加农民收入，改善居民膳食结构，调整优化畜牧业产业结构等方面发挥着十分重要的作用。然而，我国肉鸡业仍面临着诸多问题和挑战，如疫病频发，复杂程度和控制难度加大；养殖成本高涨；药残超标或含违禁药物导致鸡肉出口常被拒之门外等等。同时，随着人们生活水平不断提高，国内鸡肉消费需求呈刚性增长，大量质优价廉的鸡肉产品涌入国内市场，贸易逆差越来越大。因此，在肉鸡产业内外部环境不利情况下，我国肉鸡业能否适应新形势，保护国内市场，增强国际竞争力已成为当前产业发展亟待解决的关键问题，而降低肉鸡生产成本、提高生产效率，乃成为现阶段发展具有国际竞争力肉鸡业的重要任务。
本文介绍了三十年来我国肉鸡生产的总体概况，对大、中、小三种不同规模的肉鸡生产成本收益进行了系统分析；应用生产成本理论构建地区间成本差异模型，对造成不同省份、不同区域间肉鸡生产成本差异的各影响因素进行了实证分析。基于成本最小化的理论假设，建立超越对数随机前沿成本函数对肉鸡生产的成本效率进行了估计，比较分析了各省份和各区域间肉鸡成本效率变化趋势及差异，并对成本非效率影响因素作了分析。论文还建立利润函数，分析了当市场价格和生产环境变化情况下，对肉鸡生产的影响程度。
研究表明：
1.我国肉鸡产业总体发展迅速，但区域间的发展存在差异。我国肉鸡生产发展十分迅速，具体表现在：首先，我国肉鸡存栏数和出栏数增长迅速，肉鸡生产持续增长且占肉类的比重不断提高，人均鸡肉占有量也有了显著的提高。其次，我国肉鸡规模化生产发展迅速，中大型规模的肉鸡饲养已成为我国肉鸡规模饲养的主要模式。此外，我国肉鸡产业发展的地区差异也很大，区域化的布局日趋形成，我国肉鸡生产从东部向中西部转移已成趋势，西部地区发展缓慢但潜力很大。
2.我国肉鸡养殖成本中饲料成本所占比重最大，不同养殖规模成本效益差别较大。
首先，从成本项目及构成来看，大中小规模肉鸡饲养的总成本均呈上升趋势且年均增速较快，其中大规模户生产的总成本最高，中规模户最低，且大规模户雏鸡费用和饲料成本均高于中规模户和小规模户。其次，在肉鸡养殖成本构成中，精饲料费、鸡雏进价、用工作价、医疗防疫费占总成本的比重在90%以上，其中，精饲料费用比重最大，占到70%以上。此外，肉鸡生产收益总体呈上升态势，但并不稳定，净利润波动较大。
3.我国地区间肉鸡生产成本差异显著，其主要原因是地区间的生产和技术水平差异。
我国肉鸡生产的成本与收益存在很强的地区差异性，深入分析引起我国肉鸡生产成本地区差异的原因主要有：第一，综合反映生产水平和技术水平的“料肉比”的差异是导致肉鸡生产成本差异的一个重要因素，其对肉鸡生产成本的影响系数达到0.6272；第二，肉鸡生产的用工费用差异对生产成本影响的弹性为-0.0919，根据效率工资理论，劳动力成本的提升也会提高劳动效率，进而促进养殖企业经济效益的上升。第三，肉鸡饲料费用差异对肉鸡单位生产成本的影响十分显著，雏鸡费用对生产成本的影响程度小于饲料费用。
4.我国肉鸡生产的平均成本效率处于中等水平，还有很大的提升空间。
对我国肉鸡生产的经济效率进行估计的结果发现：我国肉鸡生产的成本效率整体不高，各省份都存在不同程度的成本非效率情况；全国肉鸡生产的平均成本效率变动总体较为平稳，波动幅度不大；我国肉鸡生产较高成本效率组省份比重很低，大部分省份都分布在中等效率组；中部地区肉鸡生产的成本效率最高，且各地区成本效率都呈较为平稳的变动趋势，东部地区各省份成本效率差别较大，呈现出东部地区中的北方省份肉鸡成本效率要普遍高于南方地区的特征，西部地区各省份肉鸡生产的成本效率都不高，且成本效率差别较大。
成本非效率中，料肉比是导致成本非效率的主要影响因素，其对成本非效率的正向影响程度远大于其他变量；疫病因素不仅增加了养殖过程中的成本，同时也加大了肉鸡养殖的风险，从而降低了成本效率；不同区域成本效率差异明显。
5.我国肉鸡短期供给滞后，长期供给弹性大于短期供给弹性。
在短期内，肉鸡短期供给弹性较小；从投入要素来看，精饲料价格对肉鸡生产的影响最大，其次是劳动力价格和雏鸡价格。在短期内，产出价格的上升将会增加对可变投入要素的使用，除了饲料价格上涨因素外，肉鸡价格和其他投入要素价格的变动不会引起肉鸡生产供应大的波动。在长期内，肉鸡长期供给弹性大于短期弹性，说明养殖户在长期内可以根据市场需求来调整其生产行为。其次，肉鸡生产供给对投入要素价格的反应在长期更为敏感，尤其是精饲料价格。此外，劳动力价格和准固定资本的价格对肉鸡生产的影响也不容忽视。
最后，提出了相关的政策建议：1.大力推进肉鸡饲养的规模化和标准化；2.加强现代畜牧科技在肉鸡生产中的运用，降低肉鸡生产成本；3.提升肉鸡养殖企业成本控制能力，降低成本非效率；4.加大疫病防控和药残监控力度，降低疫病风险造成的损失；5.努力降低排放减少污染，节约资源降低能耗。
After three decades of sustained and rapid development, China's broiler industry has become an industrywith the highest level of industrialization, market and scale in animal husbandry, which plays animportant role in solving the employment of rural labor force, increasing farmers’ income, improvingresidents' dietary pattern, and adjusting and optimizing the livestock industry structure. However,China’s broiler industry is confronted with many problems and challenges, such as increased diseasecomplexity and difficulty of control, the soaring cost of farming, antibiotics and heavy metal residueproblems, and barriers in exports, and so on. In the mean while, with the continuous improvement ofpeople’s living, domestic chicken meat consumption grows rapidly. And a large amout of chickenproducts from foreign countries flood into domestic market, which makes the trade deficit becomebigger. Thus, under the circumstance of unfavorable external environment in the broiler industry,whether China's broiler industry can adapt to the new situation, protect the domestic market, andenhance international competitiveness has become the key issue to be solved in the current developmentof broiler industry. Therefore, reducing the cost of broiler production and improving productionefficiency is to become an important task of the current stage of developing international competitivebroiler industry.
This paper introduces the general situation of China's broiler production, and systematicallyanalyzes the cost and benefit of different scale broiler production. By using the cost variance model, thefactors which affect the cost difference among provinces and regions are emprically analyzed. Based onthe theorecical hypothesis of cost minimization, the translog stochastic frontier cost function isestablished to estimates the cost efficiency, and factors influencing on non-efficiency of China's broilerproduction cost are also empirically analyzed. The profit function model is also established in this paperto analyze the degree of supply response of broiler production to the changes of market prices andproduction environment.
The research shows that:
1. China’s broiler industry has developed rapidly as a whole, but there also exists inter-regionaldifferences. Specifically, firstly, there is a rapid increase in the number of broiler stock and slaughter,the broiler production and its percentage in meat continue to grow, and per capita chicken meatconsumption also has a notable increase. Secondly, China's large-scale broiler production developsrapidly, and medium and large-scale broiler farms in China have become the main mode. In addition,there is also a big regional difference in the development of China's broiler industry, and thegeographical distribution of broiler industry has already been formed, that is, China's broiler productiontransferring from the eastern region to the central region of China has become the trend, broilerproduction in western region develops slowly but has a great potential.
2. Feed cost accounts for the largest proportion of broiler production cost; the cost-benefit differs indifferent scale.
First, the total cost of the large, medium and small-scale broiler has the trend of ascent and the average annual growth rate is fast. The total cost of broiler production in large-scale is the largest, whilethe medium scale is the lowest. Chick cost, feed cost and labor cost in the large-scale households aremuch higher than those in the medium scale and small scale. The total four costs including fine fodder,chick cost, labor cost and medical and epidemic prevention fee account for above90%in total cost, andfine fodder accounts for the largest proportion. In addition, broiler production had a ascend trend as awhole, but it is not stable.
3. The regional difference of China’s broiler production cost is significant, mainly due tointer-regional difference of production and technical level.
The main reasons causing regional differences of broiler production cost in China lie in: Firstly, asa comprehensive reflection of production level and a technical level, the differences of FCR (feedconversion ratio) is an important factor leading to the big differences in costs of broiler production,whose coefficient is0.6272, indicating that the higher the FCR is, the higher the unit production costs is.Secondly, effect of differences in labor cost on broiler production cost is-0.0919, and according to theefficiency wage theory, the upgrading labor cost will improve labor efficiency, thus contributes toboosting the economic benefits of the breeding enterprises. Thirdly, the impact of difference of broilerfeed cost on broiler production cost is very significant, but the impact of chick cost on production cost isless than that of feed cost.
4. The average cost efficiency of broiler production is in the middle level, there is still much roomfor improvement.
The cost efficiency of China's broiler production is not high as a whole, and all provinces havevarying degrees of cost inefficiency; the change in the average cost of the national broiler productionefficiency is relatively stable, with little fluctuation. Most provinces are located in the middle efficiencygroup while the number of provinces located in high efficiency group is much less. Cost efficiency ofcentral region is the highest among the three regions, while cost efficiency is not high in those provincesof western region.
Feed conversion Ratio is the main factor affecting cost inefficiency, and its positive impact on thecost non-efficiency is much larger than the other variables. Disease factor not only increases the cost offarming, but also enhances the risk of broiler farming, which reduces the cost efficiency. The costefficiency in different regions differs significantly.
5. There exists a lag in China's broiler short-term supply, and the long-term supply elasticity isgreater than the short-termsupply elasticity.
The short-term supply elasticity of broilers is inelastic. The impact of feed price on broiler (-1.8845)is bigger than other factors, followed by the price of labor and chicks (elasticity values are less than1).In the short term, the rise in output price will increase the use of the variable input factors, and exceptfor the rise of feed price, the changes of broiler price and other inputs prices will not cause largefluctuations in broiler production. The long-term supply elasticity is greater than the short-term supplyelasticity, which implies in the long term, the farmers can adjust their production according to marketdemand. In addition, the responses of broiler production to input prices are more sensitive in the long run, especially for the feed price. And the effects of labor price and quasi-fixed capital prices on broilerproduction can not be ignored, which are both significant.
Finally, some relevant suggestions and recommendations are proposed:1. to vigorously advancethe scale of production and standardization of broiler breeding;2. to strenghthen the application ofanimal science and technology into broiler breeding to reduce production cost;3. to improve the costcontrol ability of broiler breeding enterprise to reduce the cost inefficiency;4. to strenghthen the diseaseprevention and control and monitoring of drug residues to reduce the loss caused by disease risk;5. totake efforts to reduce discharge and pollution, and to save resources and reduce energy consumption.
本文介绍了三十年来我国肉鸡生产的总体概况，对大、中、小三种不同规模的肉鸡生产成本收益进行了系统分析；应用生产成本理论构建地区间成本差异模型，对造成不同省份、不同区域间肉鸡生产成本差异的各影响因素进行了实证分析。基于成本最小化的理论假设，建立超越对数随机前沿成本函数对肉鸡生产的成本效率进行了估计，比较分析了各省份和各区域间肉鸡成本效率变化趋势及差异，并对成本非效率影响因素作了分析。论文还建立利润函数，分析了当市场价格和生产环境变化情况下，对肉鸡生产的影响程度。
研究表明：
1.我国肉鸡产业总体发展迅速，但区域间的发展存在差异。我国肉鸡生产发展十分迅速，具体表现在：首先，我国肉鸡存栏数和出栏数增长迅速，肉鸡生产持续增长且占肉类的比重不断提高，人均鸡肉占有量也有了显著的提高。其次，我国肉鸡规模化生产发展迅速，中大型规模的肉鸡饲养已成为我国肉鸡规模饲养的主要模式。此外，我国肉鸡产业发展的地区差异也很大，区域化的布局日趋形成，我国肉鸡生产从东部向中西部转移已成趋势，西部地区发展缓慢但潜力很大。
2.我国肉鸡养殖成本中饲料成本所占比重最大，不同养殖规模成本效益差别较大。
首先，从成本项目及构成来看，大中小规模肉鸡饲养的总成本均呈上升趋势且年均增速较快，其中大规模户生产的总成本最高，中规模户最低，且大规模户雏鸡费用和饲料成本均高于中规模户和小规模户。其次，在肉鸡养殖成本构成中，精饲料费、鸡雏进价、用工作价、医疗防疫费占总成本的比重在90%以上，其中，精饲料费用比重最大，占到70%以上。此外，肉鸡生产收益总体呈上升态势，但并不稳定，净利润波动较大。
3.我国地区间肉鸡生产成本差异显著，其主要原因是地区间的生产和技术水平差异。
我国肉鸡生产的成本与收益存在很强的地区差异性，深入分析引起我国肉鸡生产成本地区差异的原因主要有：第一，综合反映生产水平和技术水平的“料肉比”的差异是导致肉鸡生产成本差异的一个重要因素，其对肉鸡生产成本的影响系数达到0.6272；第二，肉鸡生产的用工费用差异对生产成本影响的弹性为-0.0919，根据效率工资理论，劳动力成本的提升也会提高劳动效率，进而促进养殖企业经济效益的上升。第三，肉鸡饲料费用差异对肉鸡单位生产成本的影响十分显著，雏鸡费用对生产成本的影响程度小于饲料费用。
4.我国肉鸡生产的平均成本效率处于中等水平，还有很大的提升空间。
对我国肉鸡生产的经济效率进行估计的结果发现：我国肉鸡生产的成本效率整体不高，各省份都存在不同程度的成本非效率情况；全国肉鸡生产的平均成本效率变动总体较为平稳，波动幅度不大；我国肉鸡生产较高成本效率组省份比重很低，大部分省份都分布在中等效率组；中部地区肉鸡生产的成本效率最高，且各地区成本效率都呈较为平稳的变动趋势，东部地区各省份成本效率差别较大，呈现出东部地区中的北方省份肉鸡成本效率要普遍高于南方地区的特征，西部地区各省份肉鸡生产的成本效率都不高，且成本效率差别较大。
成本非效率中，料肉比是导致成本非效率的主要影响因素，其对成本非效率的正向影响程度远大于其他变量；疫病因素不仅增加了养殖过程中的成本，同时也加大了肉鸡养殖的风险，从而降低了成本效率；不同区域成本效率差异明显。
5.我国肉鸡短期供给滞后，长期供给弹性大于短期供给弹性。
在短期内，肉鸡短期供给弹性较小；从投入要素来看，精饲料价格对肉鸡生产的影响最大，其次是劳动力价格和雏鸡价格。在短期内，产出价格的上升将会增加对可变投入要素的使用，除了饲料价格上涨因素外，肉鸡价格和其他投入要素价格的变动不会引起肉鸡生产供应大的波动。在长期内，肉鸡长期供给弹性大于短期弹性，说明养殖户在长期内可以根据市场需求来调整其生产行为。其次，肉鸡生产供给对投入要素价格的反应在长期更为敏感，尤其是精饲料价格。此外，劳动力价格和准固定资本的价格对肉鸡生产的影响也不容忽视。
最后，提出了相关的政策建议：1.大力推进肉鸡饲养的规模化和标准化；2.加强现代畜牧科技在肉鸡生产中的运用，降低肉鸡生产成本；3.提升肉鸡养殖企业成本控制能力，降低成本非效率；4.加大疫病防控和药残监控力度，降低疫病风险造成的损失；5.努力降低排放减少污染，节约资源降低能耗。
After three decades of sustained and rapid development, China's broiler industry has become an industrywith the highest level of industrialization, market and scale in animal husbandry, which plays animportant role in solving the employment of rural labor force, increasing farmers’ income, improvingresidents' dietary pattern, and adjusting and optimizing the livestock industry structure. However,China’s broiler industry is confronted with many problems and challenges, such as increased diseasecomplexity and difficulty of control, the soaring cost of farming, antibiotics and heavy metal residueproblems, and barriers in exports, and so on. In the mean while, with the continuous improvement ofpeople’s living, domestic chicken meat consumption grows rapidly. And a large amout of chickenproducts from foreign countries flood into domestic market, which makes the trade deficit becomebigger. Thus, under the circumstance of unfavorable external environment in the broiler industry,whether China's broiler industry can adapt to the new situation, protect the domestic market, andenhance international competitiveness has become the key issue to be solved in the current developmentof broiler industry. Therefore, reducing the cost of broiler production and improving productionefficiency is to become an important task of the current stage of developing international competitivebroiler industry.
This paper introduces the general situation of China's broiler production, and systematicallyanalyzes the cost and benefit of different scale broiler production. By using the cost variance model, thefactors which affect the cost difference among provinces and regions are emprically analyzed. Based onthe theorecical hypothesis of cost minimization, the translog stochastic frontier cost function isestablished to estimates the cost efficiency, and factors influencing on non-efficiency of China's broilerproduction cost are also empirically analyzed. The profit function model is also established in this paperto analyze the degree of supply response of broiler production to the changes of market prices andproduction environment.
The research shows that:
1. China’s broiler industry has developed rapidly as a whole, but there also exists inter-regionaldifferences. Specifically, firstly, there is a rapid increase in the number of broiler stock and slaughter,the broiler production and its percentage in meat continue to grow, and per capita chicken meatconsumption also has a notable increase. Secondly, China's large-scale broiler production developsrapidly, and medium and large-scale broiler farms in China have become the main mode. In addition,there is also a big regional difference in the development of China's broiler industry, and thegeographical distribution of broiler industry has already been formed, that is, China's broiler productiontransferring from the eastern region to the central region of China has become the trend, broilerproduction in western region develops slowly but has a great potential.
2. Feed cost accounts for the largest proportion of broiler production cost; the cost-benefit differs indifferent scale.
First, the total cost of the large, medium and small-scale broiler has the trend of ascent and the average annual growth rate is fast. The total cost of broiler production in large-scale is the largest, whilethe medium scale is the lowest. Chick cost, feed cost and labor cost in the large-scale households aremuch higher than those in the medium scale and small scale. The total four costs including fine fodder,chick cost, labor cost and medical and epidemic prevention fee account for above90%in total cost, andfine fodder accounts for the largest proportion. In addition, broiler production had a ascend trend as awhole, but it is not stable.
3. The regional difference of China’s broiler production cost is significant, mainly due tointer-regional difference of production and technical level.
The main reasons causing regional differences of broiler production cost in China lie in: Firstly, asa comprehensive reflection of production level and a technical level, the differences of FCR (feedconversion ratio) is an important factor leading to the big differences in costs of broiler production,whose coefficient is0.6272, indicating that the higher the FCR is, the higher the unit production costs is.Secondly, effect of differences in labor cost on broiler production cost is-0.0919, and according to theefficiency wage theory, the upgrading labor cost will improve labor efficiency, thus contributes toboosting the economic benefits of the breeding enterprises. Thirdly, the impact of difference of broilerfeed cost on broiler production cost is very significant, but the impact of chick cost on production cost isless than that of feed cost.
4. The average cost efficiency of broiler production is in the middle level, there is still much roomfor improvement.
The cost efficiency of China's broiler production is not high as a whole, and all provinces havevarying degrees of cost inefficiency; the change in the average cost of the national broiler productionefficiency is relatively stable, with little fluctuation. Most provinces are located in the middle efficiencygroup while the number of provinces located in high efficiency group is much less. Cost efficiency ofcentral region is the highest among the three regions, while cost efficiency is not high in those provincesof western region.
Feed conversion Ratio is the main factor affecting cost inefficiency, and its positive impact on thecost non-efficiency is much larger than the other variables. Disease factor not only increases the cost offarming, but also enhances the risk of broiler farming, which reduces the cost efficiency. The costefficiency in different regions differs significantly.
5. There exists a lag in China's broiler short-term supply, and the long-term supply elasticity isgreater than the short-termsupply elasticity.
The short-term supply elasticity of broilers is inelastic. The impact of feed price on broiler (-1.8845)is bigger than other factors, followed by the price of labor and chicks (elasticity values are less than1).In the short term, the rise in output price will increase the use of the variable input factors, and exceptfor the rise of feed price, the changes of broiler price and other inputs prices will not cause largefluctuations in broiler production. The long-term supply elasticity is greater than the short-term supplyelasticity, which implies in the long term, the farmers can adjust their production according to marketdemand. In addition, the responses of broiler production to input prices are more sensitive in the long run, especially for the feed price. And the effects of labor price and quasi-fixed capital prices on broilerproduction can not be ignored, which are both significant.
Finally, some relevant suggestions and recommendations are proposed:1. to vigorously advancethe scale of production and standardization of broiler breeding;2. to strenghthen the application ofanimal science and technology into broiler breeding to reduce production cost;3. to improve the costcontrol ability of broiler breeding enterprise to reduce the cost inefficiency;4. to strenghthen the diseaseprevention and control and monitoring of drug residues to reduce the loss caused by disease risk;5. totake efforts to reduce discharge and pollution, and to save resources and reduce energy consumption.
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